New polling data suggests that Herschel Walker's abortion controversy may have cost him *some* support so far in the Georgia Senate race. 53eig.ht/3VCz8aj 2/ Four surveys showed Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock leading, on average, 48 percent to 45 percent among likely voters. 53eig.ht/3CCP5EV

This year’s gubernatorial contest in Virginia is already the most expensive election in commonwealth history.

McAuliffe and Youngkin spent a combined $105 million through Oct. 21, according to data collected by the Virginia Public Access Project. 53eig.ht/3mEAJx4 While McAuliffe had outspent Youngkin slightly, $55.5 million to $49.8 million, through Oct. 21, Youngkin entered the final weeks of the race with significantly more money left to spend, $7.8 million to McAuliffe’s $1.9 million. 53eig.ht/3mEAJx4

MLB’s long-overdue decision to recognize the statistics of Negro League players means that MLB’s record book is finally expanding.

Our project out today looks at the greatest pitchers and batters of the Negro Leagues and their current comparables: 53eig.ht/3uxwEfN Roughly 3,400 men who played in seven Negro Leagues from 1920 to 1948 will finally be recognized by Major League Baseball.

Here, we put the accomplishments of Negro League stars into context using wins above replacement:

53eig.ht/3uxwEfN

Women of color were shut out of Congress for decades.

Now they’re transforming it.

53eig.ht/3bVNnTt A historic number of women of color — 49, according to data collected by @CAWP_RU — will serve in the 117th Congress, including the first 3 Korean American women elected to Congress and the first Black women to represent Washington state and Missouri. 53eig.ht/3bVNnTt

Where the race stands in key battleground states: 53eig.ht/3mPcDwx Nevada: it’s currently neck-and-neck. Both Biden and Trump are sitting at 49% of the vote, with 86% of the expected vote reporting, according to ABC News. 53eig.ht/3mPcDwx

Democrats have a 3-in-4 chance of flipping the Senate, according to our final forecast. 53eig.ht/361eHL5 A ton of seats in the Senate are in play, making a wide range of outcomes plausible.

In 80% of our model’s simulations, Democrats wind up with anywhere between 48 and 55 seats. 53eig.ht/361eHL5

Biden’s favored in our final presidential forecast, but it’s a fine line between a landslide and a nail-biter. 53eig.ht/3jTt614 *There hasn’t been a lot of change over the past 24 or 48 hours.

Most of the late polling either came in close to previous polling averages, or came from fairly random pollsters.

53eig.ht/3jTt614

Ruth Bader Ginsburg reshaped jurisprudence in the U.S., particularly as an advocate for women’s rights.

She was a cultural and political icon.

Her death, and the fight to fill her seat, will undoubtedly shake an already strained 2020.

53eig.ht/33GdyHP Now, Republicans will have to decide whether they will break from their “no election year confirmations” stance from 2016. 53eig.ht/33GdyHP

Why we’re planning for an Election Day that could last months --> 53eig.ht/2Cr7c5w Yes, it's true, the 2020 election is shaping up to be a whole “election month” — or even election months. 53eig.ht/2Cr7c5w

Some notes about the 2020 forecast: Our model produces probabilistic forecasts, as opposed to hard-and-fast binary predictions about who will win or lose. It estimates the chances of each candidate winning, and will update continuously until Election Day. 53eig.ht/3amzhaD We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often.

These maps are a representative sample of how things might shake out on Election Day. 53eig.ht/2020

If the election were held today, Biden might win in a landslide. BUT the election is not today. It’s August. We have debates and conventions. There's a pandemic, which is also causing a volatile economy. So, basically, it's way too soon to count Trump out. 53eig.ht/3gPDkPp The FiveThirtyEight presidential election forecast has Trump with a 29 in 100 chance of winning the Electoral College, despite his current deficit in the polls. 53eig.ht/2PLWYja

NEW: In a wide-ranging interview, Dr. Anthony Fauci told FiveThirtyEight’s PODCAST-19 that, while New York and other cities are doing well, the U.S. overall, compared to other countries, is not doing great. 53eig.ht/322sfFS Fauci said the surge of cases in the U.S. is the result of both certain citizens ignoring social distancing recommendations and certain states skipping over guidelines. 53eig.ht/322sfFS

Some races to watch:

53eig.ht/house 53eig.ht/house

In a growing number of communities around the country, patients and physicians have access to just one hospital. And in more and more places, that hospital is Catholic. 53eig.ht/2LFPAlH Increasingly, where a patient lives can determine whether Catholic doctrine, and how the local bishop interprets that doctrine, will decide what kind of care she can get. 53eig.ht/2LFPAlH

Here's a better way to think about May’s jobs numbers --> 53eig.ht/2AHDlAJ

External Tweet loading...
If nothing shows, it may have been deleted
by @AP view original on Twitter

Each month’s job growth figure is revised twice, first in the next jobs report and finally in the report after that. Entire years of monthly data are also adjusted up or down during an annual benchmarking process, based on records of unemployment benefits. 53eig.ht/2AHDlAJ

Section 1. In case of the removal of the President from office or of his death or resignation, the Vice President shall become President.

53eig.ht/2voPcEB Section 2. Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.

53eig.ht/2voPcEB