Trinh Profile picture
Sep 19, 2020 30 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Why do we judge gender equality by certain jobs that we deem more useful to society than others (banking vs teaching or nursing vs being a mom? Women & men start out the same if not women ahead in men in college enrolment but then diverge as they choose diff majors & life choices
From my experience in universities & working, women choose what they like & not forced to focus on more “relationship oriented” education & career choices.

They tend to focus on the humanities & for those that actually enter professions that are more # based, leave b/c...
Only 9% of the nursing population is male & it is a female dominated profession by a ratio of 91%.

In teaching, women make up 76% of total.

Of course these are not economically rewarding jobs but they are socially very rewarding & noble.
Why do women choose these jobs? For various reasons but likely because of biological differences between men and women that dictate them to value relationships more (teaching allows you to have the same schedule as ur children & a very meaningful profession).

Whereas banking?
In banking, many graduates of banks start out with a relatively decent gender ratios. By this I mean not retail banking but investment banking. But the long hours & the grueling aspect of it require a certain type of people to persist. Some do. For for many women, they leave. Why
For one, they probably don't enjoy the material (monetary + status) aspect of it as much as men & care more about the relationship aspect, as in will I be able to spend time with my family & if I choose to have one I'd have to have children (pregnancy, post birth & raising kids).
Most women that I know that succeed in high-level jobs have supportive husbands that take up the other half of child rearing etc because someone has got to do it. If u are career driven, u marry someone who is complimentary.

Or they don't have kids or even a partner b/c well...
None of these choices are good or bad. But if I believe that a woman that wants it all (material things like money & status as well as relationship such as a husband & children & friends) would have to make wise choices so that she can have the support system to be female & hunt.
But we forget that not all women want to hunt & compete in a very aggressive environment & want to just select a mate that would do that for them & then focus on the one job that makes them indispensable: being a mother.

And we shouldn't judge them. That's what they want & like.
In most banks/organizations, u don't see female MDs/head b/c of many reasons but include:
*Women, even if good & success at their job, choose to leave to have jobs that allow them to be both a caregiver & also a career
*Women decide that they don't like reward/costs not worth it.
Career women face different choices than men: She has to decide whether she wants kids & if so must find a mate & have children & that takes time through the biological process.

Even w/ a support spouse (say stay at home husband), only women can give birth so she still needs to.
That means she faces the biological constraint even if she has the same set up as a man (a spouse that is supportive & will do the caregiving) because she has to carry the baby to term, make sure the baby survives before she can pass it off to her partner.

A man doesn't do that.
Companies are increasingly better at accommodating this biological fact as they want more women represented because, let's be honest, we think more holistically & are very good analysts of risks & rewards.

Offer maternity leave & even flexible work schedules. Things improving.
Women will be more represented in professions that were more difficult for women to have it all than before.

That said, a woman sees the world slightly different than a man because she has to make choices much earlier based on her understanding of herself & needs.

And...
Should she upon reflection of her skills, desire, ambition & tolerance of hunting choose to have a life where she wants to teach & have children & spend a lot of time with them, then we shouldn't expect her to be a man.

This is my problem w/ feminism. They want women to be men.
Look, at some point, our career will peak. My take is it is either in our 30s, 40s, or 50s. Perhaps some peak at 60s.

Either way, you are expected to retire and so when that happens whether u were a central banker or not wouldn't matter but your investment in your relationships
Do we judge a human based on monetary & status or the impact they have left behind to others?

Women live longer than men?

Women do because we value the things that matter & invest in them: relationships & communication.

We don't make poor choices, we're just not men.
Btw, women shouldn't try to be men. We are fine as we are. But if we want to have it all like we think that men do (a successful career w/ plenty of $, status, respect & power, a family (spouse, kids etc), then we need to be smart.

Have a partner that supports & wants the same!
Did you know that teaching used to be a male dominated profession? It was considered a stepping stone for a greater career in the law or the church until the 19th century.

The introduction of Common School (pre public school) required more workers beyond male & so women joined.
Here is an interesting fact regarding teaching, which is a female dominated profession:

76% of teachers are women & 54.2% of principals but only 24% of them are superintendents.

Why the gap even in a profession that is dominated by women?
People say women simply are not applying for the high-pressure but highly compensated job.

Unconscious bias on the part of those who make hiring decisions, a lack of a strong candidate pipeline, & a paucity of female role models & networking opportunities surface as reasons

So?
To become a superintendents, you must apply & women don't apply if they don't meet the qualification 100% while men would at 60%.

Got an issue of good candidates not applying. The 2nd issue is the road to become a superintendent is very, well, long & competitive & require focus.
Profile of a superintendent: like a graduate degree in education (MA or PhD), former principal (preferably at a middle or HS not elementary school) & assistant superintendent.

Then u have to apply for the job to get the job. Along the way, somehow, only 24% of women are there.
Stats on principals (prequisite to be a superintendent:

68% women in elementary school
40% women in middle school
33% women in HS.

The Gate Foundation funds an effort to raise this ratio & they focus primarily on getting women to apply for the job (many don't) & some progress.
The ratio of women applying for the superintendent job if they don't quality has risen. Here are some fun facts about women superintendents: they are more likely than men to have children in school. Diff b/n a teacher & a superintendent is salary + influence (individual v system)
Lower gender ratio of women in a field that we dominate highlights:

*Top jobs require singular focus on career (yrs of education to the graduate level + sticking around/focused to get the top job in ur profession)
*Women that make it have support system (spouse, mentor)& apply.
This article has a great video of 6 women that made it & what it takes to have the top job (a lot). The key pt they make here is having a mentor (someone to help guide & strategize career path) & focus, as is wanting & doing what it takes to be there.

usatoday.com/story/news/edu…
Btw, just because men make it to the top jobs doesn't mean that MOST MEN do.

By definition, a top job = extremely competitive & few. So most men don't make it.

The US has 44 male presidents so only 44 men made it to the top job. They don't represent the average man in the US.
If you only look at the gender ratios at the top & miss the gender ratio on average, then we are also skewing the discussion of gender equality.

What we mean is gender equality at the top & not true gender equality of outcome b/c an average man is likely worse off than women.
According to the WHO, "Women generally live longer than males – on average by 6-8 yrs. This difference is partly due to an inherent biological advantage for the female, but it reflects behavioural differences between men & women."

All of this is dependent on how u benchmark.

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More from @Trinhnomics

Apr 19
Who likes higher fuel prices in Asia??? Well, no one except Indonesia and Malaysia and by that I mean exporters.

The biggest deficit as a share of GDP goes to Thailand but mostly in LNG. Second is South Korea.

Obvs this is as a share of GDP. Higher fuel costs = higher import costs = someone has to pay for it & eg higher inflation or higher fiscal costs.Image
Who likes higher food prices? Well, a few - Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and India. Obvs this is EXPORTERS only who gain. EM has high food as a share of consumption basket. But net food exporters have levers to pull. They can BAN exporting of food.

Who is most vulnerable? The Philippines. South Korea imports a lot too.Image
Putting food and fuel together as a share of GDP: Who is most exposed?

Well, South Korea and the Philippines. KRW doesn't like this news.

PHP doesn't like it. One caveat is that SK is much richer so can afford it more than say PH where this will hurt more.

Winners? Malaysia. Yes, Malaysia.Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 12
Good morning,

Did you know that South Korea exports more to the US now than it does to China?

Actually, it isn't alone. A lot of Asian countries, due to supply chain reshuffling and also geopolitics and industrial policies, are exporting now more to US than China.

Why is South Korea doing more trade with a country far away than a country next door?Image
First, growth of exports to the US is faster than exports to China. In fact, China hasn't been importing much more and it is Korea that has been importing more from China for goods such as intermediate goods etc.

This has raised a big concern in Korea that China is a competitor & it's hard for SK to compete with its industrial policy and subsidies.Image
And so South Korea has 1 lever it can pull that is better than China - GEOPOLITICS. South Korea is an ally to the US. And as a country w/ a US FTA, it is being favored.

Whether it's the Chips Act or the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the whole point is to exclude China.

So what?
Read 8 tweets
Feb 8
Another Five Years of Jokonomics? More Infrastructure, Metals and Mining FDI, and Even Greater Dependency on China

A thread 🧵
Image
Indonesia elects a new president in a week. The leading candidate is riding high on Jokonomics, or the continuation of his policy & popularity, as Jokowi's eldest son is VP.

Prabowo promises 8% average GDP growth or Jokonomics. How realistic & what is Jokonomics anyway? Image
While people believe that Prabowo is the best bet of doing more of what popular Jokowi has done for Indonesia in the past decade & he promises the highest growth, Jokowi 10-year only produced 4.2% GDP growth on average. Stripping out 2020 (Covid), it's 4.9%. No where near 8% 👈 Image
Read 26 tweets
Feb 6
Indonesia elects a new president next week to replace Jokowi. The leading candidate - Prabowo - is riding the president's coat tail as many hope that he is the best hope for continuation. But what is Jokonomics exactly? From 2014 to 2023, Indonesia grew on average 4.2% per yr👈.
If we strip out 2020, which economy contracted, then under Jokowi, the economy grew 4.9% on average (4.2% if we don't strip it out).

So that's sub 5%. In fact, GDP barely deviates from 5% level. So why do people think that Prabowo is the key to escape the middle income trap?
Pres Jokowi's biggest accomplishments come from the fiscal side. Indonesia got investment grade in 2017. By weaning Indonesia slowly off expensive energy subsides, the expenditure side was contained. And with the commodity boom, Indonesia fiscal positions were leaner than most.
Read 12 tweets
Feb 2
Today is 2 Feb and we're basically two years since the Fed started hiking rates in March 2022.

So what you say? Well, since then, Asian FX has lost grounds to the USD, except SGD & HKD.

JPY lost -21.5%
CNH -12.1%
MYR -11.4%
TWD -10.2%
KRW -9.4%
INR -9.2%
AUD -9.1%
IDR -8.7%
What we know is that the Fed took rates from 0.25% to 5.5% or +5.25% increase, which is the sharpest since the 1980s of tightening cycle.

On top of this, it also has to wean down its massive balance sheet (BS) by letting 60bn UST & 35bn MBS roll off.

So what? Well, USD rallied.
People thought that in 2022, the Fed would only hike ever so meagerly but it kept going.

People thought that in 2023, the Fed would CUT because, well, the economy would crack but it kept going until July 2023 at 5.5%.

People thought that the Fed would CUT in March 2024 but...
Read 8 tweets
Dec 21, 2023
As we bid adieu to 2023, which was an abysmal economic year for EM Asia (India an exception), hope springs eternal as we look to 2024 with key drags dissipating.

A thread 🧵👈

bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…
The great expectations of China lifting the region via imports and tourism disappointed as demand faded, weighed down by property market woes & weak investment.

From Korea to Vietnam, exports to China crashed, dragging down overall shipment, hurting big traders the most. Image
The goods deflation felt globally, especially in ICT, hit big traders hard. Commodity exporters such as Indonesia too didn't like the downward price trend.

Despite stronger US growth, China downward import growth dragged Asian exports.

India not being a bit trader helped shield Image
Read 14 tweets

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