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kumar saurabh Profile picture
@suru27
Sep 19, 2020 • 7 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
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#AR2020 Rarely comes AR which confuses if its well written to entice you or something special. A potential Long-Term story (rare for me) barring few concerns. Must read to know industry #sequentScientific. Thanks to @unseenvalue n @punitbansal14 for bringing this story to us🙏 ImageImageImageImage
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More from @suru27

kumar saurabh Profile picture
Jan 27
This is quite a bad situation in Mid and Smallcap stocks (Rank upto 500) which is above Rs 8000+ Cr market cap. 30% of midcaps down by 20% and smallcaps down by 30% from their 52W high

However, Big B ki jubaan me bolu to -
Iske age ki tu daastan mujhse sun
Sunke teri nazar dabdabaa jayengi

Let us look at the world below Rs 9000 Cr market capImage
I have taken a universe of companies between Rs 200-9000 Cr. There are 1951 companies

55% of companies are below Rs 1000 Cr market Cap. 42% of these stocks are down by more than 40%.

Yes, if you are holding all the companies in Rs 200-1000 Cr market cap band, 42% of your stocks are down by more than 20%

Imagine the pain the lowest segment is going throughImage
Rs 1000-3000 Cr universe has another 561 companies which is 26% of this universe.

Here, it is no better. 37% of these stocks are down by more than 40%.

So, combining these 2 segments, out of total 1951 companies, we have 1575 companies. 636 out of these 1575 companies are down by 40%

This means 33% of this whole Rs 200-9000 Cr universe is down by Rs 40%Image
Read 4 tweets
kumar saurabh Profile picture
Jul 4, 2025
#Ultramarine Annual Report 2025 #AR2025 and some fun facts and why we should look beyond numbers visible to all:

Screener PE: 19.7
PE is based on EPS growth derived from P&L. However, if a business has:
1. High accounting depreciation but low actual maintenance
2. Lot of capex done recently resulting in high depreciation with scope of better asset utilization in times to come
PCE (Price to Cash EPS, a term purely coined on own and not in valuation books) could be a better reference point. There are many situations where PCE either based on cash EPS of OCF based is a better representation of valuation.

When we look Ultramarine from OCF perspective, Ultramarine did Rs 90 Cr of OCF,

Earlier PE: 19.7
OCF based PE/PCE: 15.5-16.5

Below is cashflow statement from AR 2025Image
It does not stop here. When one looks at the balance sheet of the company, there is something interesting. It has a non-current investment of Rs 498 Cr

This investment is for the value of 20% stake they hold in sister company Thirumalai chemicals. Image
This is also evident when you look at Thirumalai shareholding. Thirumalai current market cap is Rs ~Rs 2900 Cr. So, this shareholding value comes to Rs 580 Cr as on today. Give 50% holdo discount and this value for Ultramarine comes to Rs 290 Cr Image
Read 15 tweets
kumar saurabh Profile picture
Feb 19, 2025
Yesterday, I shared this data point of % of companies hitting 52 week low close to ILFS Oct 2018 number.
Question is what is the significance of this data?

Let us explore
The reason to share this data is much more interesting. In current market, people would say - do not catch falling knife, let it bottom etc.

What if you invested in all those days when more than 20% companies were making 52 week low?

Can you backtest return of all such scenarios since last 10-20 years?

Got reminded of my Face2Face video done 4 years back where I presented lot of backtested outputs including how your returns would pan out

Here is this data right from 2006. The red bars are % of companies making 52W lowImage
Though some of these metric are gaining popularity now, we had done lot of exploratory analysis and backtesting around these metric 4-5 years back when I was conceptualizing Scientific Investing . You can watch the full video here:
Read 6 tweets
kumar saurabh Profile picture
Feb 9, 2025
SMALLCAP 250

For SMALLCAP 250, based on Q3FY25 results so far:
❓Best performing companies?
❓Attractively valued companies?
❓Both attractively valued and best performing?

🧵to answer all such questions to help to filter interesting ideas for research Image
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Image
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💡 Companies delivering >15% sales growth Image
💡 Companies delivering >15% sales growth Image
Read 12 tweets
kumar saurabh Profile picture
Feb 7, 2025
NIFTY NEXT 50

For NIFTY NEXT 50, based on Q3FY25 results so far:
❓Best performing companies?
❓Attractively valued companies?
❓Both attractively valued and best performing?

🧵to answer all such questions to help to filter interesting ideas for research Image
💡 Companies delivering double digit sales growth Image
💡 Companies delivering double digit PAT growth Image
Read 9 tweets
kumar saurabh Profile picture
Feb 6, 2025
NIFTY 50

For NIFTY 50, based on Q3FY25 results so far:
❓Best performing companies?
❓Attractively valued companies?
❓Both attractively valued and best performing?

🧵to answer all such questions to help to filter interesting ideas for research Image
💡 Companies delivering double digit sales growth Image
💡 Companies delivering double digit PAT growth Image
Read 7 tweets

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