1. Most Americans have a strong belief in fairness. Republicans established a new rule in 2016: no confirmations of new Justices in election years. Now, in 2020, they plan to violate the rules *that they set*. Democrats should hammer that message home in a blitz of advertising.
2. Democrats should also try to deter such procedural abuses with credible threats of actions *if* Republicans choose to ram through a Justice in violation of their own rules. Options should include a) adding additional Justices; b) eliminating the filibuster; c) DC/PR statehood.
3. In the past, I favored Senate institutionalism (I think it's a good thing to have procedural mechanisms that encourage cross-party compromise). But those, largely due to McConnell, have been obliterated. Either both parties play by the rules, or the rules can be changed.
4. There is a risk, of course, that this will usher in a death spiral that leads to a serious erosion of US democracy, in which the party that wins always changes the rules. But Republicans *already* started that death spiral. Should Democrats just roll over and accept it? No.
5. There is a larger conversation about Supreme Court reform that should take place. Lifetime appointments are anti-democratic and create much higher stakes because court control can shift for decades with one death. Something like 10 or 12 year terms would be, in my view, wise.
6. Yes, the court opening could help Trump consolidate his base further pre-election. But it *should* also help Biden consolidate the left. If you love AOC or Bernie, you have to recognize that this Trump pick could derail most progressive goals through the 2040s.
7. If you needed any more evidence that this will be the most consequential election in modern American history, you just got it. There's a month and a half left. Do whatever you can to defeat Trumpism and punish those who don't play by their own rules by changing Senate control.
8. The bottom line is this: Republicans set precedent against Supreme Court nominations in election years in 2016. If they now violate their own rules for partisan gain, then Democrats would be justified in doing the same if they win in 2021. They should make that credible threat
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1. Why is Biden stepping aside extremely good news for the Democrats? There are many reasons, but let me walk through some of the main ones.
—Reduced catastrophic risk
—Ability to prosecute the case against Trump
—Democratic disarray less likely because of anti-Trump motivation
2. Biden is an excellent president, but the risk of a repeat of the debate debacle closer to November was a catastrophic and uncontrollable risk. There’s nothing anyone could do about it and it *was* a serious possibility. If it happened again, Trump wins, guaranteed.
3. Even though the asymmetry of media coverage around Biden’s age was unfair, it’s reality. Now the focus will shift to Trump’s cognition, which is deranged and unhinged. We need to overcome the “banality of crazy”: forkingpaths.co/p/the-case-for…
1. *Nobody* knows what would happen if Biden steps down. It’s impossible! There is no relevant precedent. It’s not 1968! There’s never been an old felon authoritarian former president against an 82 year old incumbent. It’s radical uncertainty. I don’t know. Nor does anyone else.
2. Many of the voices suggesting Biden bow out are people who would crawl over broken glass to vote against Trump. They believe—in good faith—the risks of Biden staying in are higher than the risks of bowing out. Maybe they’re wrong! But it’s silly to imagine there’s no issue.
3. It’s also silly to conflate the issue of whether Biden is better than Trump (yes, obviously, by a billion miles); whether Biden can be an excellent president (yes, obviously) with whether Biden is the best placed to win (perhaps, but perhaps not—we don’t and can’t know).
It’s called FLUKE: Chance, Chaos, and Why Everything We Do Matters.
It’s the most interesting thing I’ve ever written—it drastically changed how I see the world—and I hope you’ll pre-order it. Read what it’s about here: simonandschuster.com/books/Fluke/Br…
Here’s the summary: “In the perspective-altering tradition of Malcolm Gladwell’s The Tipping Point and Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s The Black Swan comes a provocative challenge to how we think our world works—and why small, chance events can divert our lives and change everything.”
I’ve been lucky enough to receive incredible advance praise for “Fluke” from some ridiculously smart people, including @holland_tom @seanmcarroll @skdh and @jonathangottsch
`1. Researchers have identified a new personality trait that poses a particularly dangerous risk to democracy. It's called the "Need for Chaos."
Let me explain, starting with my favorite hate e-mail I've received. "Dear Brain," it began, a lovely compliment right off the bat...
2. At least he was polite. Anyone who writes about US politics gets these sort of e-mails. They get particularly vitriolic if you’re critical of Trump. They’re much worse if you’re a woman. (I’ve heard horror stories). But here's the thing about them... brianklaas.substack.com/p/the-need-for…
3. Consider the sociology behind them. What do they hope to achieve by calling me a Nazi clown? “Maybe I really am a Nazi clown?” I would wonder, as I cried myself to sleep, clutching the Panzer tank I had made in balloon form? Or maybe, just maybe, they have a Need for Chaos.
1. Fresh genomic evidence has emerged, suggesting that Covid came from a raccoon dog. At the same time, US government agencies have concluded that it came from a “lab leak” accident. We may never know the origin story with certainty. But there’s a bigger story we’re all missing.
2. The story so far is a strange one. New genomic data was discovered recently, by accident. When researchers analysed it, they found clear marches with raccoon dogs. So, they said so. But when they went back to look at the data, it had been removed. brianklaas.substack.com/p/the-missing-…
3. Now, people who are unqualified to understand the data are shouting at each other. The truth is: nobody has perfect certainty. But while we fixate on the origins of Covid, we aren’t thinking about how to prevent the next avoidable pandemic in the future brianklaas.substack.com/p/the-missing-…