AukeHoekstra Profile picture
Sep 19, 2020 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
'New diesel makes the air cleaner' Dutch newspaper @lc_nl shouts.

It's an often repeated irrelevant half truth:

1) 'Clean diesel' emits just as much CO2 and is thus just as 'dirty' for the climate.

2) It's only true for the latest heavy trucks on dirty roads. Not for cars.
And yes we could make diesel cars that emit very few monitored particulates too.

But diesels still emit unmonitored dangerous stuff (like ozone and brake pad dust) and making normal cars 'clean' means they become more expensive and less user friendly.
The #dieselgate scandal stems from the fact that making a 'clean diesel' affordable and user friendly (e.g. no disposing off the contents of and then refilling your adblue tank all the time) was deemed impossible: 'clean' heavy diesel trucks do not imply 'clean' diesel cars.
But again and above all (and completely ignored in this Dutch newspaper article) 'clean diesel' does nothing at all to reduce global warming. Oh, and electric is cheaper per km.

So I feel sorry for the engineers working on diesel engines but electric is really the future.
And directly after writing this little thread another similar claim pops up in my timeline. This one intentionally misleading (basically lying) because the term 'zero emission' so far always includes CO2 emissions which are not reduced in 'clean' diesels.
dieselinformation.aecc.eu/new-diesel-car…
I wonder if someone feels inclined to make a legal matter out of this. I'm pretty sure using the term 'zero emissions' for cars that emit basically the same amount of CO2 would be considered providing unconscionable misleading information by most judges.

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More from @AukeHoekstra

Aug 13
Great to see more and more attention for flexible grid pricing.

We must say goodbye to the "copper plate" that offers free power everywhere and every time. It's hideously expensive and outdated.

What we need is smart flexibility.
🧵
The underlying reason is that the costs of different components of the energy system changed:

Some remained high (e.g. pylons, fossil & nuclear)

Some plummeted (e.g. solar, wind, batteries, EVs & inverters)

Some became possible at all (e.g. measuring & steering in real time)
So now we should make good use of these new, clean, abundant and affordable options, even if it means doing things a bit differently than before.

So what should we do different regarding grid congestion pricing?
Read 20 tweets
Jul 28
Some are angry about the "anti-Christian depiction of the last supper" at the Olympic Opening ceremony. (@elonmusk and @realDonaldTrump among others)

A Dutch art historian explains it's not the last supper but a Dutch painting of the Olympic gods.
And I explain what I loved.
🧵
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Original Dutch thread here. I just translated it.


@WSchoonenberg shows that the "tableau vivant" (living painting) is depicting "The Feast of the Gods" by Jan van Bijlert, from 1635.
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The heathen Gods have gathered on mount Olympus for a feast. Sun god Apollo is recognizable by his halo, Bacchus (Dionysus) by the grapes, Neptune (Poseidon) by his trident, Diana (Artemis) by the moon, Venus (Aphrodite) by Cupid.


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Read 24 tweets
Jul 9
With new batteries solar and wind are not only faster and cleaner, but also cheaper.

I'm estimating:
$0.08/kWh for PV+batteries
$0.07/kWh for wind+batteries

@skorusARK gives a good overview of current wisdom, but strongly declining battery prices change EVERYTHING
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I've recently written about how I was surprised I missed the enormous consequences of price reductions in batteries.

LFP cells are now $50/kWh and last 10 000 cycles.
That's $0.005 per kWh.

Say we double that to pack the cells and you are at $0.01/kWh.aukehoekstra.substack.com/p/batteries-ho…
If you add batteries to solar PV, not all energy has to flow through batteries. But let's keep it at $0.01 and add that to the price of solar. That makes PV (and wind) SUPER cheap!

Batteries must be discounted more quickly you say?
Read 10 tweets
Jun 20
Cheap stationary batteries will pave the way for wind and solar in cheap and resilient energy grids. Unfortunately the @IEA is mispredicting it (again).

Thread based on a free substack article I just wrote.
aukehoekstra.substack.com/p/batteries-li…
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Many of my followers know this picture: it visualizes how the IEA underestimates solar. Now I see basically the same problem in their new battery report.

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The IEAs new battery report gives a lot of great info on batteries but also two predictions taken from their authoritative world energy outlook:
1) STEPS which is basically business as usual
2) NZE (Net Zero Emissions) which is aspirational
iea.org/reports/batter…
Read 11 tweets
Jun 16
Batteries: how cheap can they get?

I used the Sunday afternoot to describe how I think that dirt cheap batteries will completely transform our electricity grid, paving the way for solar and wind and replacing grid reinforcements with grid buffers
aukehoekstra.substack.com/p/batteries-ho…
This is something I'm working on for different government and grid operator projects, but I never realized just how cheap sodium batteries could become and how much of a game changer that will be.

So I used my Sunday evening to write this and would love your feedback!
First I look at the learning curve and then we see it is extremely predictable: every doubling of production has reduced prices by around 25%.

It's even steeper and more predictable than solar panels, the poster child of this type of learning curve.
(More details on substack.) Image
Read 15 tweets
Jun 5
Aaaand we have another winner of the "EVs and renewables can never happen because of material scarcety" sweepstake. I thought @pwrhungry was more serious. Let me explain why this is misleading bollox.
First of all, notice how his argument is mainly that Vaclav Smil says this and HE is an authority.

Why bother to write a substack that basically parrots someone else?

Because you don't really understand it yourself and needed to write another substack maybe?
I'm a bit tired of this because Bryce abuses Smil the same way most people who are against renewables abuse him. They emphasize this is a serious and revered figure that knows numbers. They make it about the messenger, not the argument.
Read 14 tweets

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