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David Weigel Profile picture
@daveweigel
Sep 19, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Interested to see if polls move at all bc of SCOTUS. What people forget is that Trump had a ton of slack with GOP voters in 2018 - he gained in final weeks bc loyal Republicans came home, partly bc of SCOTUS. His problem now: he's fully consolidated that base and it's not enough.
Without third parties (Greens aren't even on MI/PA ballot) and an unpopular opponent, getting every Republican vote in the Midwest still leaves Trump short. Stuff could happen in the fight that moves votes, but there wasn't a pro-Trump majority waiting around for a court fight.
I emphasize this because both liberals and conservatives tend to over-rate how conservative the electorate is; Trump won, ipso facto Republicans win when there's a vacancy. Trump had a very specific problem with reliable GOP voters that he's fixed for this year.
2016 not 2018. People make typos and Twitter doesn't allow them to be edited, life goes on.

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More from @daveweigel

David Weigel Profile picture
Aug 26
DNC moving through its resolutions this morning. Easily passed Ken Martin’s Gaza resolution (he mentions “two peoples with historic claims to the land”), passed resolution on keeping super PACs out of primaries with one member saying Dems can’t disarm in general elections. Image
After the super PAC resolution passed, NE Dem chair Jane Kleeb clapped: "Ten years in the making!"

Resolution grew out of the Bernie-Hillary wars.
No opposition to a resolution condemning Islamophobia, introduced by CA Dem Joe Salas, who says the party's image has been hurt by Dem leaders not endorsing Mamdani in NY and local Minneapolis Dems revoking their endorsement of Omar Fateh.
Read 17 tweets
David Weigel Profile picture
Aug 25
I'm here, one theme is that there's too much intra-Dem negativity. Amy Klobuchar, rejecting the "we suck club": “We’re not getting into it when they try to divide us on every single issue online. Complaining about each other to each other – it isn’t how we win again.”
Tim Walz up, starting with the Melissa Hortman assassination. "We have not moved on from it. It is not a new news cycle for us."
Walz makes fun of Trump's "fat ankles" and says that if Harris had won, "we wouldn’t wake up every day to a bunch of shit and a bunch of nonsense."
Read 7 tweets
David Weigel Profile picture
Mar 18
Tim Walz in Wisconsin: “I’m having the most unsatisfying I Told You So tour in the history of politics.” Image
“I don’t think name calling works,” says Walz, speaking where a PEOPLE VS ELON MUSK sign was just taken off the screen. “But I do reserve that for the dipshit whose name was up there.”

He celebrates the falling Tesla stock price: “$225 and dropping!”
Walz hitting the Dems' theme, that Rs are trying to put a Musk/Trump acolyte on state supreme court. "If somebody said, I want to be a judge to support Governor Walz, I'd say: Get the hell out of here. You should support the rule of law."
Read 15 tweets
David Weigel Profile picture
Jan 31
Heavy rhetorical focus on diversity at today’s DNC meetings — real record scratch as Trump admin unwinds DEI programs, w Rs confident that this stuff is an electoral loser. Image
“There has never been a Native American in leadership at the DNC. If not now. when?”
"Unlike the other party, that is demonizing diversity, we understand that diversity is our greatest strength," says outgoing DNC chair Jaime Harrison before bringing the candidates out.
Read 41 tweets
David Weigel Profile picture
Nov 8, 2024
Still seeing "Harris couldn't turn out millions of Biden voters," and the count in swing states says that's not true.

In Wisconsin, Harris got 37k more votes than Biden. The most votes of any Dem candidate since Obama in 2008.

She lost bc Trump added 77k more votes since 2020.
She is very close to Biden 2020 raw vote in MI and PA. Had Trump just recreated his 2020 vote, he would have lost MI and PA would be too close to call still. But he added 151k votes in MI, 108k in PA.
What about Georgia? Biden got 2.47m votes in 2020, Harris got 2.54m votes this week. Trump won because he added 200k votes.

NC? Harris outran Biden by 4k votes. Wouldn't even have been enough to win in 2020 ... but Trump added 120k votes.
Read 5 tweets
David Weigel Profile picture
Jun 15, 2024
Day two
Bannon: "Jamie Raskin is going to try to steal the election on Jan. 6. They're going to say that President Trump is an insurrectionist, and we will never certify the election of an insurrectionist."
"We're coming after Lisa Monaco, Merrick Garland, the senior members of the DOJ that prosecuted President Trump, Jack Smith. This isn't about revenge, this isn't about retribution; this is about saving this republic."
Read 12 tweets

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