Simon Sarris Profile picture
Sep 19, 2020 7 tweets 2 min read Read on X
This is close to the opposite of the advice I'd give smart people (but it's almost certainly a mistake to write that advice down)

Really good advice is often a dangerous gift, for both parties.
What's wrong: Early on one must cultivate sense, experience, and money, this advice attempts to gain the third at the expense of the first two. It's 💯% defensive advice and assumes no upside to risk, so following it means you forgo all asymmetric upsides

Maxing out 401Ks and IRAs supposes you have no idea what else to do with the money (which may be true) but step 1 is to look for what else your money could be doing.
Index funds are 'safe' and guarantee you will learn nothing. Many of them are pseudo actively managed (eg if you own an S&P index fund you now own ETSY because some people decided it should be in the S&P a few days ago). Someone *is* picking stocks, just not you!
"The person on the other side of the table knows more than you" is not itself a reason why you should not buy individual securities, after all when you buy an index fund there's someone else on the other side of the table too. Their reasoning is poorly articulated.
"Pay attention to fees" and then talks about having a financial advisor. The people this kind of advice applies to definitely do not need to be paying a financial advisor.
(this is just what I think is wrong with the card's framing, not trying to offer my own advice here, but broadly speaking more people should take more financial risks for both possible financial or experience gain while young, and this thinking goes in the opposite direction)

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More from @simonsarris

Oct 2
The zero-interest-rate era is going to become lost history because people want to make up a narrative around AI. The white collar bloodbath didn't happen because of a chat app release, it happened because of the end of ZIRP which occurred rapidly in 2022. Image
the extreme over-hiring and then bloodbath is visible from space. Also visible from indeed dot com data, indexed to 100 pre-covid.

The AI post-hoc story is doggedly self insistent but its completely false. Image
People a decade from now will think Elon slashed Twitter's employees by 90% because of some AI initiative, and not because he just thought he could run a lot leaner.

We're on year 3-4 of other companies wondering the same thing.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 11
I think the obsession with randomized controlled trials as the default of "doing science" has probably set us back a few decades
consider for an obvious example how h. pylori was discovered as the cause of peptic ulcers

RCTs might be used to develop new drugs to treat ulcers, but that's obviously inferior to discovering the cause. One is more scientifically important (the one that won the nobel prize)
Read 6 tweets
Aug 25
Why *did* so many western nations seem to decide on a policy of infinity migration so suddenly, with seemingly no fanfare or public debate or even mention about it prior to backlash?
for example the change in Canada here from 2015-2019 looks genuinely crazy. Huge change to a previously conservative system, more than doubled. Possibly it made local news but not in the US.

But then the post 2020 change blows *that* out of the water Image
2022/2023 more than doubled the 2015-2019 averages in a lot of countries. And some of those 2015-2019 averages were already high, as we see with Canada, which makes these bars look less weird than they really are.

from
which has many more graphs gov.uk/government/pub…Image
Read 5 tweets
Aug 24
big % of the loneliness epidemic and fertility crisis is downstream of the fact that men now pursue a girl for 2-10 seconds total and if it doesn't work go "oh well"

women probably also reject far too quickly but that just means not giving up matters even more
there seem to be many different shades of "no desire" at play. If you really like someone you should probably try harder before giving up. But second if you like someone and they reject you you should be learn from that. Actually consider how you can be more likeable
A lot of times I see someone pursue someone else but its truly half-hearted. Like the pursuer hardly seems to want it. Or they want to overtly act like they cannot possibly be that interested even if they are. No lust, no laughter. Romance seems like a bore with those people.
Read 9 tweets
Aug 21
simon civilization scale

A: You can leave keys in your car
B: You can leave car unlocked
C: You have to lock car
D: You have to lock car and conceal any valuables
E: You cannot keep anything in your car
F: E + and you have to leave it unlocked so they don't smash the window
This is much more actionable than the sci-fi weeb stuff. We have a lot of work to do. There are not many A-grade civilizations.
Perhaps stranger, there are political factions that make endless excuses for the lower letters. Effectively they are pro-crime, anti-civilization.
Read 6 tweets
Aug 18
IMO just buy Siggis 4% yogurt and cut up small pieces of what you already eat to feed them

3 babies in: We have never made a puree, never bought "baby food", and the only baby-specific thing we've made is roasting sweet potato cubes, which we mostly stopped doing
buying bags of frozen peas and corn is much less messy than a puree, and they can self direct eating

babies love any cold meat chopped up long before they even get teeth, almost zero mess (compared to purees), even with hamburger
they don't need special drinks, they will have the same Turkish coffee that you do Image
Image
Read 5 tweets

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