There is only 1 way to be certain the ACA remains the law of the land. Biden wins for president, Democrats win the Senate & hold the House.
In the aftermath of the loss of Justice Ginsberg, talking to Supreme Court lawyers & legal experts. Thread coming. Follow if interested.
A conservative justice to replace RBG would be devastating to voting rights, to money in politics, to rights for minorities & to reproductive health for women.
But the most immediate impact would be to the Affordable Care Act and what it means to Americans who need medical care.
Elimination of the ACA means:
-A loss of all the rules that makes insurance worth anything to you
-Anybody with a prior illness no longer has guaranteed access to insurance
-If you've had COVID, that means coverage for virtually every organ system not covered
-Heart attack, stroke, high blood pressure, kidney problems, mental health issues-- would all be pre-existing conditions
-20 million people would lose coverage, including many low income people
-Hospitals would shut, bankruptcies would increase, rx drug costs for seniors go up
The case has so many problems, but you should assume whoever is nominated to fill RBG's seat, if they hear the case, would be in effect interviewing for the case.
And the list of 40 people on Trump's list includes noted humanitarians like Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz.
Not just politicians, but people who could sit on the court for decades.
You will hear many many scenarios: 4-4 ties, partial verdicts, the case being pushed back to the District Court & yes, a possible conservative upholding the ACA. But there are a couple big questions,
1. Does Trump want a vote before the election?
I know his tweet says yes. But he has to act like he wants it. He's down 7 points in the polls. This pick is a big motivator for his base. Naming someone & then blaming Democrats for stalling juices the polls for him.
This puts the stakes very high. It is entirely possible that Democrats can put other procedural roadblocks to slow a vote down. It is also possible that several Republican Senators delay for either principled reasons (Romney, Murkowski) or political ones (Collins).
McConnell and Trump might not fight so hard against that scenario.
If the case is heard November 10th with 8 Justices, Roberts can always decide to hear it again with aa 9th. If it is heard with 8, ACA needs 5 to have a clean win.
2. Is there another conservative vote for the ACA, presuming Roberts is 1?
Maybe. But I wouldn't want to bet millions of lives on it.
3. Do the Democrats have recourse?
Like adding more Justices to the court or some other tact? Maybe, but only if they control the Senate and the White House. And even then, that's not a scenario one could bet on, or would necessarily impact this case.
4. If the ACA falls, is there a chance at a replacement bill?
With Trump in the White House and a GOP Senate, almost certainly not. One thing that happens in this case is the money that pays for ACA subsidies and Medicaid expansion become a giant tax cut.
In that case, Republicans won't put forward anything with close to the amount that would return coverage to people. They would put forward a thin sham bill to get Democrats to vote against it and say they had discharged their duties.
Only in a Democratic sweep is there likely to be a replacement bill using the reconciliation process. That way if the court does overturn the ACA, a replacement bill, including one with improvements would be able to be put forward.
Other scenarios are tenuous.
I never met Ruth Bader Ginsberg. I admired her like so many people. But from what I do know she would say "Mourn me for a day. Then get out there and work to fix this ."
There is a way. There is a way.
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“Ron DeSantis is taking the politics of being a bully to a different level,” Sykes tells me. “He’s decided he's going to move as hard and demagogically to the right as he can. He’s learned something from Donald Trump: you don’t need to be a nice guy.” 2/
Sykes says DeSantis is exploiting the culture wars in order to tap into Republicans’ grievances, and that the GOP sees the Florida governor as a “younger, smarter” but equally combative replacement for Trump. But DeSantis stands out from other conservatives for a reason. 3/
Some thoughts on using Twitter:
With Musk inviting back people who use the platform to threaten rape, to lie at scale & become whatever else his whims decide, here are some actions worth considering …
-Mute all advertisers in your feed. I’m not going to be a revenue source & don’t want those who advertise here to be encouraged.
-If you have a lot of followers or post a lot, consider moving the bulk of your content elsewhere. Post looks promising. (I’m @ASlavitt there.)
-I’m also on Mastadon to check it out & until Post is done with its waitlist & will eventually pick one.
-I continue to occasionally check the news feed here & promote things on Twitter minimally & will cross-post for a short time as people decide what they want to do.
COVID Update: It’s time for one as we look ahead to the winter.
The real question is whether we will have another 2021 with a lot of disruption— on a more modest wave— or nothing at all.
There is early data to help answer this question. 1/
Currently there are lots of Omicron sub-variants co-circulating around the globe.
Household names like:
BA.4.6
BQ1.1
XBB
While it’s all a little hard to follow, there’s something interesting about the nature of these variants. 2/
Variants: 1- These are all variants of Omicron. This is good. Better than dealing with a Delta variant emerging. Makes progression more closely resemble the flu. 2- Each are growing in different parts of the world without 1 being dominant. We could have a mix this winter.3/
NEW: COVID vaccines will now be recommended annually, with the flu shot.
I spoke to the White House yesterday about the plan. 1/
Rather than an ad hoc schedule which confuses many as to when to get vaccinated, the thinking is that an annual shot will result in many more people getting vaccinated.
They point to 2/3 of adults who take the flu vaccine vs 1/3 of adults over 50 who have been taking COVID. 2/
We have infrastructure, outreach, and habits that can be capitalized to get people their flu and COVID vaccines together.
This is the prime benefit.
But of course it comes with some questions they are preparing to address. 3/