Taniel Profile picture
Sep 19, 2020 3 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Theresa Greenfield led Joni Ernst by 3% in Selzer's June poll.

And she leads Joni Ernst by 3% again in today's poll, 45% to 42%.

note: in 2016, Selzer was a rare pollster to capture that something was going deeply wrong for Dems in the Midwest. #IASen

desmoinesregister.com/story/news/pol…
Ernst has already made it explicit she is fine confirming for Trump's appointee this fall. She may be in a position to do it having already lost.
(I really wish media didn't separate the presidential/down-ballot portions of a poll. I get the need to build interest, but substantively it's helpful to have the full picture in assessing a poll.)

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More from @Taniel

Mar 5
Tomorrow is extraordinary busy election day... and you may have missed critical battles.

So here's a thread with the 15 races I'll watch most closely, across 4 states. It has some of everything: school boards, local politics, DAs, voting rights...

1️⃣ Let's start with the Arkansas supreme court races.

Because they're so odd. 2 seats, 4 sitting justices running for them, none of which are their current occupants, plus two outsiders. Depending on the results, the big winner may be Huckabee Sanders.

boltsmag.org/arkansas-supre…
2️⃣ Moving over to the Texas court of criminal appeals:

Ken Paxton & his far-right allies are targeting 3 GOP judges (Sharon Keller, Barbara Hervey, and Michelle Slaughter) who were part of a ruling that restricted Paxton’s ability to prosecute elections. texastribune.org/2023/12/13/ken…
Read 17 tweets
Feb 10
not all about the Santos seat and Trump/Biden: there are a ton of critical elections coming up literally in coming weeks.

here are just four you should know about.
1. the former sheriff of Los Angeles, ousted after protecting police abuse, is trying a comeback in 3 weeks: boltsmag.org/los-angeles-co…
2. Cleveland's March primary for prosecutor is one of the most interesting of the spring, with two very distinct visions of criminal justice between the incumbent & his challenger. wrote a bit about it here. boltsmag.org/ohio-prosecuto…
Read 6 tweets
Dec 7, 2023
Dems won full control of Michigan in the midterms, for the first time in 38 years.

Then? In the last few weeks, Michigan adopted into law a big range of voting rights reforms.

Let me count 7 different ways. ⬇️
1️⃣ Michigan will be automatically registering people to vote when they leave prison.

It'll add them to voter rolls, then send them a mailer notifying them, & ppl can opt out.

It's 1st such law in the nation, a big milestone to reduce marginalization. boltsmag.org/michigan-autom…
There's more in that automatic voter registration law!

2️⃣ Michigan will be switching to a system referred to as *back-end* voter registration.

It's a little complicated to explain, but @alex_burness lays it out here: boltsmag.org/michigan-autom…
Image
Read 9 tweets
Nov 13, 2023
NEW: It was just confirmed that Dauphin County, PA, home to Harrisburg , flipped to Democratic control in last week's elections. For the first time in 100+ years.

GOP incumbent conceded this am, h/t @pennslinger.

One reason this matters? Ballot access. See next tweet.
County officials in PA have a lot of discretion to design voting procedures. For instance, many GOP-run counties (like Dauphin) haven't allowed ballot curing.

I talked to the Dem who won last week about how he plans to expand ballot access: boltsmag.org/democrats-penn…
Two things he mentioned: (1) wanting to expand the number of ballot drop boxes, & (2) wanting to make sure ballot curing is allowed & that the county proactively reaches out to people to inform them of a mistake.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 11, 2023
This past Tuesday saw elections all over the place.

With many eyes on VA & KY, you may have missed some critical races for election administration, mayor, DA, sheriff, AG, or election deniers seeking offices, conservatives wanting school boards.

A 🧵 of highlights:
1️⃣ Pennsylvania supreme court

Dems prevailed 53/47 for this BFD vacant seat, expanding their majority & shielding their edge on issues that are sure to come up -- not just next year for elections, but into 2030s with redistricting. This is a 10-year term) boltsmag.org/democrats-penn…
2️⃣Abortion in Ohio

Voters approved enshrining abortion rights in Ohio's constitution. (GOP is already melting down about it, & plotting next move.)

Read @PiperSFrench on one population that's especially affected: people on probation & parole. boltsmag.org/ohio-abortion-…
Read 9 tweets
Nov 5, 2023
"The election is in one year." No. Elections are in 2 days.

Control of state government in 4 states. A key supreme court seat. Abortion measure. Major DA & sheriff races. Mayors. Election deniers seeking elections office. M4L trying to take over school boards.

A sampling:
1️⃣ Pennsylvania's supreme court.

There's a vacant seat on a swing state court that's frequently rendered tight decisions. GOP candidate has indicated she'd be interested in restricting mail voting, in a state where that's sure to have cases next year. boltsmag.org/pennsylvania-s…
2️⃣ Mississippi's governorship

Dems vying for an upset to break the GOP trifecta for the first time in 20+ years. In the background: the hundreds of thousands of people who can't vote. boltsmag.org/mississippi-fe…
Read 18 tweets

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