ProdigalTrader Profile picture
Sep 20, 2020 10 tweets 2 min read Read on X
A reality check on the return of ur capital

Suppose ur portfolio worth 1 Lakh at the time of investment.
You have seen lot of updates on twitter/telegram/fb etc. that many traders comes up with posting 5% up/10% up kind of updates on their timeline everyday.

thread 1//10
You are being a beginner,
just looking for a paltry 1% increase in worth every day for the next 1 year (almost 250 trading days)

2//10
Here comes the reality

Investment = 1 lakh
Interest = 1%
Interval = daily
Time span = 250 days (trading days)
Final amount = 12, 03,215/-
12 Lakh 3 thousand 2 hundred and 15 rupees !!!!!!!!!!!!!
thats 1100% return !!!!!!!!!!!!!

3//10
I hope all of u have got my point.

Now repeat the calculation with just 0.20% increase daily for the next one year
Ur final amount u get would be 164790/-

1 Lakh 64 thousand 7 hundred and 90 rupees.
Or 65% annual return

4//10
Everybody know,
even generating 65% anuual return is very tough.

If ur daily average increase in 0.10%,
u will be making around 30% annual return which would be a far more realistic value.

5//10
In short,
moral of the story is don’t fall prey to this huge jump in a scrips one day price
U may not know,
next day it would fall more than today’s hike,
which of course won’t be updated

6//10
U need to understand that either their stake in that particular stock in very less to make a big impact in their portfolio
or
its not making that kind of return everyday which are conveniently kept away from the public.

7//10
U can check yourself

How many of the peoples u follow updated their daily return % of individual stock on 31st August 2020,
the day we had a mighty fall in the markets??

Psychologically,
we all built up to feel insecured over our failure
and
we try to hide it.

8//10
Frame and build emotional stability from within.
Nurture it from within

Keep it away from outside influence,
especially the seemingly looking super performance from everyone else around u

9//10
Most of the guys in market,
if they look upon themselves,
would fee that he is the sole looser in the market while everyone else is making it huge.

Market is devised in such a way to demoralize and demotivate u to the rock bottom.

Do not fall prey to that.

10/10

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More from @ProdigalTrader

Aug 31, 2023
Thread 1
Pullback Trading - The reality

Pullback trading - trading an instrument when there is a weakness in the major Trend. For example suppose a stock is going up since last more than 80 days & is trading close to multi year highs it can be considered to b in upTrend.

1/18
As an additional confirmation one can make sure that moving average are perfectly aligned according to their length; 20>50>100>200. These two conditions filter all the stocks which are in bullish trends in medium term. This is where one stock qualifies for pullback trading.

2/18
One should avoid penny, illiquid and circuit mover stocks. Scan for stocks with price >20 and average daily volume > 100000 and also there should not be any open circuit freeze in recent past. This will remove nearly all the untradable stocks from WL.

3/18
Read 18 tweets
Jun 18, 2023
How do I go about with pullback trading ?

Detailed thread of the whole process

Step 1: Check the Higher TF which is monthly. Purpose behind this step is to make sure that the scrip is highly bullish in this TF.

Consider #aptecht

1/7 Image
The scrip has given an almighty breakout into new ATH last month and this month its being pulled back substantially. Here first criteria of strong bullish trend in HTF is satisfied with a fresh ATH breakout.

Step 2: Chk weekly TF to assess the details of breakout

2/7 Image
1. BO is from an inv. H&S pattern
2. There was 3WTC pattern just prior to BO
3. BO had a strong follow up week with higher ROC
4. Pocket picot volume on BO and follow up bars
5. Pullback lack volume and last bar is bullish pinbar

These confirms the BO is really strong

3/7
Read 7 tweets
Oct 13, 2022
What exactly is Trading Psychology?

Its simply an approach by means of which a trader is able to make most logical decisions and act precisely upon it. There is nothing else to it

How to build it?
It varies from one trader to another. I will exemplify one of my friend here

1/7
He had severe issues with cutting his loss. He will just keep holding it hoping for a reversal to wipe off his loss. He never take SL.
But he found a seemingly stupid but practically wonderful solution to it.
Instead of SL hit , he started thinking "Sunny Leon hit"

2/7
It was around that time Sunny Leon started acting in main stream movies as well. He just gave a definition to SL so that he is not scared of it any more, rather likes it very much.

What happened is that he wasnt worried about cutting loss anymore.

3/7
Read 7 tweets
Sep 17, 2022
Most traders conceive that strongest chart patterns are the ones which are most visually convincing. They are pushed to think those patterns offer high probability trades.
But the truth is patterns are just consolidations where trend continuation demands accumulation

1/8
and reversal demands distribution (uptrend case). This criteria has nothing to do with how the pattern looks to ur eyes. Trend continuation patterns starts with profit booking where price might dip with comparably big red bars which fizzles out faster.

2/8
Price reaches a point where buyers find it as fair value. It's here price starts accumulation. Price makes sideways trendless move here till supply no longer able to contain price inside the range. It's here demand finds further strength and price goes up.

3/8
Read 8 tweets
Mar 20, 2022
Mechanism behind stock price movement

Look at the table below. Its bid/ask table for an imaginary stock
CMP is 149.90
Highest bid is at 150 and lowest ask is at 150.
So the next trade will happen at 150 increasing the price.

1/6
But buy orders for 2500 quantity are there at 150 while there is only 200 quantity to sell.
What will happen now?
There are 2300 pending buy order at 150 with all the asks at 150 os exhausted. They will have to buy at next best ask level which is 151.

2/6
He will buy all the 150 number of shares available at 151. Now the price increased again
CMP 151 with huge quantity to buy but poor qunatity to sell

Price movement depends on how rushed or agressive either parties are

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Mar 19, 2022
When a conceptual content is posted in Twitter, how would u treat It?

Absolutely all the info can b tweeted as one liner punch dialogue. But some topics, some handles, sometimes posted as fairly lengthy threads.
Where does it differ??
What does it offer??

1/11
Suppose I post a lengthy thread in 10 tweets, what I attempt is to provide a primer on the subject. Putting it more simply, its like a 7min Highlights of a 7hr ODI match.
Similarly a thread gives u a very good idea about a topic so that u get a fair understanding on it

2/11
It helps u to decide.
If u found it not good enough, u can leave it then & there.
But If it's suitable to ur trading, then u need to go through the reference books, videos and blogs to dig it in deep and study it in-depth.

3/11
Read 11 tweets

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