Saying that bias in AI applications is "just because of the datasets" is like saying the 2008 crisis was "just because of subprime mortgages".
Technically, it's true. But it's singling out the last link in the causality chain while ignoring the entire system around it.
Scenario: you've shipped an automated image editing feature, and your users are reporting that it treats faces very differently based on skin color. What went wrong? The dataset?
1. Why was the dataset biased in the 1st place? Bias in your product? At data collection/labeling?
2. If you dataset was biased, why did you end up using it as-is? What are your processes to screen for data bias and correct it? What biases are you watching out for?
3. In the event that you end up training a model on a biased dataset: will QA catch the model's biases before it makes it into production? Does your QA process even take ML bias into account?
These are not data problems -- these are organizational and cultural problems. The fact that a biased dataset caused an issue is actually the outcome of the entire system.
Team diversity will help with these things, organically, but having formal processes is necessary by now.
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Eventually, much of AI will converge towards intuition-guided symbolic world modeling, i.e. deep learning-guided program synthesis. It is inevitable. Symbolic modeling lets a system construct a compact, reusable, highly generalizable mental model of a problem space using minimal data.
Does it mean LLMs / LRMs go away? Not at all. In the short term, they are still the best way to perform intuition guidance (codegen). In the long term, even if they become obsolete for reasoning itself, we will still need models of language in order to communicate with AI systems
Even right now, many workflows are morphing into LRM-guided harnessess that manipulate symbolic programs. Which is a crude, but currently-accessible form of symbolic learning.
The market is treating Adobe like a legacy software company in terminal decline. Yet the actual data shows it's one of the biggest beneficiaries of the rise of GenAI. In fact, it's one of the top 5 most profitable & fastest-growing AI companies today, in an industry where profitability is rare.
Adobe hit a record $6.62 billion in Q2 revenue (up 13% YoY) while non-GAAP EPS jumped 18% to $5.96. Its net margins are at 36%, close to an all-time high. They are absorbing the compute costs of generative AI while expanding their profitability.
Their AI-first ARR tripled year-over-year to surpass $500 million. Very few enterprise software companies are reporting this level of direct, paid AI adoption. The breakout driver is Firefly, now at $300M in ARR, growing approximately 50% quarter-over-quarter through apps and credit packs. That's better growth than most top AI startups. Paid users for the Acrobat AI Assistant also grew by more than 150%.
ARC-AGI-3 is out now! We've designed the benchmark to evaluate agentic intelligence via interactive reasoning environments. Beating ARC-AGI-3 will be achieved when an AI system matches or exceeds human-level action efficiency on all environments, upon seeing them for the first time.
We've done extensive human testing that shows 100% of these environments are solvable by humans, upon first contact, with no prior training and no instructions.
Meanwhile, all frontier AI reasoning models do under 1% at this time.
You can go play some of the environments yourself - 25 of them are now public: arcprize.org
You can also enter the ARC-AGI-3 competition on Kaggle. Your AI agents will be tested on two separate private test sets of 55 environments.
Cloning any random piece of SaaS is something that could already be done before agentic coding, and the economics of it haven't changed meaningfully. Before, writing the clone would cost 0.5-1% of the valuation of the legacy SaaS company. Now it might be 0.1%. It doesn't make a difference -- if you can pull it off profitably today you could also have done it profitably in the past.
The code is a very small part of the process of making such a clone successful, and the reason legacy software has often bad UX is not because code was expensive to write.
Circa 2012 you had a lot of devs "cloning Twitter" as a weekend project. Reproducing the UI and features of any app was never difficult and was never particularly valuable.
Last I checked, Twitter is still around, despite having been cloned 10,000 times before. And IMO most legacy SaaS has even greater stickiness than a social network (which does have tremendous stickiness)
People ask me, "didn't you say before ChatGPT that deep learning had hit a wall and there would be no more progress?"
I have never said this. I was saying the opposite (that scaling DL would deliver). You might be thinking of Gary Marcus.
My pre-ChatGPT position (below) was that scaling up DL would keep delivering better and better results, and *also* that it wasn't the way to AGI (as I defined it: human-level skill acquisition efficiency).
This was a deeply unpopular position at the time (neither AI skeptic nor AGI-via-DL-scaling prophet). It is now completely mainstream.
People also ask, "didn't you say in 2023 that LLMs could not reason?"
I have also never said this. I am on the record across many channels (Twitter, podcasts...) saying that "can LLMs reason?" was not a relevant question, just semantics, and that the more interesting question was, "could they adapt to novel tasks beyond what they had been trained on?" -- and that the answer was no.
Also correct in retrospect, and a mainstream position today.
I have been consistently bullish on deep learning since 2013, back when deep learning was maybe a couple thousands of people.
I have also been consistently bullish on scaling DL -- not as a way to achieve AGI, but as a way to create more useful models.
Today, we're releasing ARC-AGI-2. It's an AI benchmark designed to measure general fluid intelligence, not memorized skills – a set of never-seen-before tasks that humans find easy, but current AI struggles with.
It keeps the same format as ARC-AGI-1, while significantly increasing the signal strength it provides about a system's actual fluid intelligence. Expect more novelty, less redundancy, and deeper levels of concept recombination. There's a lot more focus on probing abilities that are still missing from frontier reasoning systems, like on-the-fly symbol interpretation, multi-step compositional reasoning, and context-dependent rules.
ARC-AGI-2 is fully human-calibrated. We tested these tasks with 400 people in live sessions, and we only kept tasks that could reliably be solved by multiple people. Each eval set (public, private, semi-private) has the exact same human difficulty – average people in our test sample achieve 60% with no prior training, and a panel of 10 people achieve 100%.
In addition to the ARC-AGI-2 release, we're launching the ARC Prize 2025 competition, with a $700,000 grand prize for getting to 85%, as well as many other progress prizes. It will be live on Kaggle this week.
We're also reopening our public leaderboard for continuous benchmark of commercial frontier models (and any approach built on top of them). Any model that uses less than $10,000 of retail compute cost to solve the 120 tasks of the semi-private test set is eligible.