Roshan Kishore Profile picture
Sep 20, 2020 15 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/n: A slightly theoretical thread on the political economy of #farmersbill "passed" by the RS.
In 1998 Utsa Patnaik wrote an essay called India’s Agrarian Economy & New Contradictions Following Liberalization for the CPI(M)'s theoretical journal. cpim.org/content/agrari…
2/n: Mandatory disclosure: Utsa, who is among the most eminent Marxist scholars on Indian agriculture (& became famous by arguing in favour of capitalist dev in Indian agriculture against veterans in the now famous Mode of Production debate) was my supervisor in CESP, JNU
3/n: Utsa's essay created a huge controversy within the CPI(M) ranks. It was against the party's programmatic understanding. She argued that the primary contraction within the agrarian economy was no longer between "mass of the working peasantry and labourers on the one hand...
4/n: ...and on the other hand the minority of landlords, traders and money lenders who monopolized control over land and money-capital, thereby exploiting the peasantry through rent, interest and exorbitant traders’ margins"
5/n: "In the agrarian sphere the emerging new contradiction is now between all the peasant classes in rural areas on the one hand, and imperialism with its local landed collaborators on the other hand", the essay argued.
6/n: The all powerful Kisan Sabha (the left was still in power in WB) which had always championed land reforms, was outraged and saw this as a justification for collaborating with the landlords. Prakash Karat was in two minds about publishing the essay but ultimately did.
7/n: Cut to the present: I disagree with the basic Utsa-Prabhat argument on imperialism & have realised the importance of agriculture outside growing staple cereals. My field visits have made me realise that farmers want greater commercial engagement with both dom and int mkts
8/n: But Utsa's hypothesis holds true for India's foodgrain economy, except the fact that it is domestic capital which is all set to appropriate a larger part of farm surpluses today rather than an imperialist force. The state is actively aiding this process via these bills
9/n: The green revolution elite in Punjab, Haryana & Western Uttar Pradesh can see this coming. That is why they are protesting against these bills. Their local socio-economic clout (& oppressive machinery) is nothing compared to the might of companies which will gain entry now
10/n: Utsa's once controversial theoretical line is being implemented in praxis today. The Kulak class of Indian agriculture, which once demonised communists as land-grabbers, is on the same side as the communists in the struggle against the govt's reform
11/n: This is a process which will eventually also antagonize the small-trader class. He will find it impossible to compete against the big retail giants, who would tend to acquire both a monopsonist's and monopolist's status in wholesale & retail food markets.
12/n: Govt is claiming that the reforms will increase prices for farmers. They could ultimately facilitate a drain of wealth away from villages. Local elite spend most of their money locally. Corporations won't. Take out a few thousand crore every year from Punjab's villages.
13/n: None of this means that the BJP will necessarily suffer politically. It often discounts the support of dominant castes from electoral calculations. The rural underclass might actually celebrate the erosion of local elite's prosperity and derived political clout
14/n: In celebrating the destruction of the local elite, however, the underclass will also destroy the bargaining power of the agrarian sector in the terms of trade struggle and, reconcile to living on government doles.The question is, can the cornered elite rally the underclass?
n/n: Only one person can be looked upon when it comes to handling the contradiction of preventing justified underclass anger against the oppressive social elite in India. Gandhi. The struggle of farmers and small capital against big capital needs to learn a lot from him.

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More from @Roshanjnu

May 23, 2023
I write about a Marie Antoinette moment for Indian statistics.

Modi govt rolled out PMGKY during covid giving free cereals to more than 80 crore people. But NAS data shows that consumption of all food items except sugar increased between 2019-20 & 2020-21 (1/n) Image
If one takes NAS numbers on face value, India’s policy makers had something comparable to the opposite of the Marie Antoinette view. They believed that the people could not even eat bread (cereals) whereas the people were consuming cake (expensive non-cereal food items) 2/n
To be sure, inequality in income & hence consumption could be one reason for rising non-cereal spending but it isn’t enough 3/n Image
Read 6 tweets
May 26, 2022
The IAS couple emptying a stadium to walk their dog and getting punishment transfer story reminded me of an old story my grandfather told me about pre colonial bihar.

A low ranking Indian police officer went for a field visit involving a night halt in some police station 1/n
When he was about to sleep he realised that the bed had no arrangement to fix a mosquito net even though a mosquito net was available ( I forget whether he told me if the officer himself brought it with him).

He had an instant feudal solution to the problem 2/n
Four policemen (of course Indian) were asked to hold four corners of the net over the bed in which Sahab was to sleep for the entire night. As the Sahab went to sleep a superior police officer (an englishman) came by the police station and saw what was happening 3/n
Read 4 tweets
Mar 11, 2022
Until exit poll results were announced on the evening of March 7, the Uttar Pradesh elections were described as a closely contested one by not just analysts but also senior political leaders across parties (including some from the BJP). What explains it?
A thread 1/n
Make no mistake, there was large scale discontent over many economic issues including jobs. I, like most reporters, saw it on my reporting trip as well 2/n
hindustantimes.com/india-news/in-…
But economic pain is only a necessary, not sufficient condition for people deciding to vote out a government. The latter, in my view, is the willingness to consolidate behind a challenger which can dislodge the incumbent govt 3/n
Read 6 tweets
Feb 16, 2022
I use post-poll data from 2017 CSDS-Lokniti survey to argue that one key element might be missing from the BJP's Uttar Pradesh campaign this time. A short thread on the story 1/n hindustantimes.com/analysis/in-up…
Question 1: What won UP for the BJP in 2017?
Was it a very large dissatisfaction level against the SP government?
In terms of satisfaction, Modi govt at the centre and SP govt in the state were not very different 2/n
Question 2: Was it a rainbow Hindu consolidation led by non-dominant OBCs?
It might have been, but the consolidation did not happen through local caste leaders. Those who didn't decide on their own, decided within families 3/n
Read 7 tweets
Feb 16, 2022
A thread summarizing our story which gives a data driven view on the ongoing Hijab controversy which started from Karnataka and is spreading to other parts of the country (joint work with @naalmot ) 1/n
Link: hindustantimes.com/india-news/a-d…
1st question: How common is Hijab/Burqa/Niqab wearing among Muslim women in India?
Data from a @pewresearch report shows that it is as high as 90%
Interestingly, personal religiosity among Muslim women is not a big determinant of this practice (more on this later) 2/n
2nd question: Are Muslim women alone in dressing differently when in public in India?
No.
86% Sikh & 61% Hindu women cover their head while stepping out. But the practice falls sharply with decline in personal religiosity among Hindu women (unlike Muslims) 3/n
Read 6 tweets
Mar 19, 2021
State elections are great fun in @htTweets newsroom. Results matter, but they also gives us an opportunity to engage with the diversity which marks Indian states. This is a thread summarising our data/political economy coverage. @naalmot deserves equal credit for it 1/n
What is at stake in these elections? Read this summary story we did on the day the schedule was announced to know more 2/n hindustantimes.com/india-news/fiv…
The CPI (M) led Left Front has allied with the Indian Secular Front, a party of a Muslim cleric, in West Bengal. Here I explain why it is yet another mistake by the CPI (M) in the state's politics 3/n
hindustantimes.com/elections/west…
Read 12 tweets

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