Young men are giving up on farming in post-reform India. Our latest based on a historical analysis of official employment data
cc @naalmot 1/6 We compared average age of India’s farm & non-farm workers since 1993-94: in 25 years the gap has increased from 0 to 6 years. It’s been flat since then 2/6

Religious festivities aside, Diwali is also the peak of consumerism for many in India.
So we decided to look at which are the most equally & unequally consumed items in the 2022-23 NSSO consumer exp survey ( cc @naalmot ) 1/n A comparison of item-wise gini coefficients shows that ✈️ tickets are the most unequal & 🧅 the most equal 2/n

Haryana results have triggered the proverbial wise in hindsight syndrome among pundits who are mostly accusing the congress of messing up. It’s not so simple, we argue ( cc @naalmot ) 1/n Did Congress show hubris in ticket distribution? It hasn’t lost too many of its bastions 2/n

Our edition today is a labour of love and collective effort of the entire newsroom. Make sure you get your copy. Sharing snippets of our data coverage in the thread 1/n What to understand the results on just 5 charts? @naalmot has it for you 2/n

I write about a Marie Antoinette moment for Indian statistics.

Modi govt rolled out PMGKY during covid giving free cereals to more than 80 crore people. But NAS data shows that consumption of all food items except sugar increased between 2019-20 & 2020-21 (1/n) If one takes NAS numbers on face value, India’s policy makers had something comparable to the opposite of the Marie Antoinette view. They believed that the people could not even eat bread (cereals) whereas the people were consuming cake (expensive non-cereal food items) 2/n

The IAS couple emptying a stadium to walk their dog and getting punishment transfer story reminded me of an old story my grandfather told me about pre colonial bihar.

A low ranking Indian police officer went for a field visit involving a night halt in some police station 1/n When he was about to sleep he realised that the bed had no arrangement to fix a mosquito net even though a mosquito net was available ( I forget whether he told me if the officer himself brought it with him).

He had an instant feudal solution to the problem 2/n

Until exit poll results were announced on the evening of March 7, the Uttar Pradesh elections were described as a closely contested one by not just analysts but also senior political leaders across parties (including some from the BJP). What explains it?
A thread 1/n Make no mistake, there was large scale discontent over many economic issues including jobs. I, like most reporters, saw it on my reporting trip as well 2/n
hindustantimes.com/india-news/in-…

I use post-poll data from 2017 CSDS-Lokniti survey to argue that one key element might be missing from the BJP's Uttar Pradesh campaign this time. A short thread on the story 1/n hindustantimes.com/analysis/in-up… Question 1: What won UP for the BJP in 2017?
Was it a very large dissatisfaction level against the SP government?
In terms of satisfaction, Modi govt at the centre and SP govt in the state were not very different 2/n

A thread summarizing our story which gives a data driven view on the ongoing Hijab controversy which started from Karnataka and is spreading to other parts of the country (joint work with @naalmot ) 1/n
Link: hindustantimes.com/india-news/a-d… 1st question: How common is Hijab/Burqa/Niqab wearing among Muslim women in India?
Data from a @pewresearch report shows that it is as high as 90%
Interestingly, personal religiosity among Muslim women is not a big determinant of this practice (more on this later) 2/n

State elections are great fun in @htTweets newsroom. Results matter, but they also gives us an opportunity to engage with the diversity which marks Indian states. This is a thread summarising our data/political economy coverage. @naalmot deserves equal credit for it 1/n What is at stake in these elections? Read this summary story we did on the day the schedule was announced to know more 2/n hindustantimes.com/india-news/fiv…

Sharing from a 1988 paper by Utsa Patnaik, my teacher, who taught me to always be mindful of political economy and economic history while studying agriculture. Extremely pertinent for the ongoing Farmer-Khalistani-Anti national discourse doing the rounds right now 1/n "The fact the both unusual backwardness and unusual rapidity of development can be conducive to a disruption of the balance, is illustrated by Assam and Punjab which have both witnessed the rise of seccessionism... 2/n

The education-expectation-skill mismatch in India.

Home internet is being upgraded to optical fibre. A young technician (he’s 25) is doing it.

This is his 2nd job. 1st one was in a company handling advertising on Delhi metro feeder buses.

Company shut down in lockdown 1/n He’s a BCA (apologetically) from a govt college. Couldn’t afford pvt fees. Was paid 18k in his 1st job (handling excel sheets etc.) & not much physical work. Spoke almost with disdain - interview aise lete hain jaise UPSC ka ho. But he badly needed the job 2/n

1/n: The manner in which Bihar counting progressed made data crunching in time difficult. Thanks to @vijdankawoosa @naalmot & our excellent editors & designers we managed to do quite a few stories. Thread here 2/n: How to read the Bihar results? It was a very close contest where NDA gained massive momentum in phase 2 & 3, perhaps proof that jungle raj campaign worked. But big churning in both identity & ideology fronts, my big-picture take on the results

m.hindustantimes.com/india-news/bih…

1/n: A slightly theoretical thread on the political economy of #farmersbill "passed" by the RS.
In 1998 Utsa Patnaik wrote an essay called India’s Agrarian Economy & New Contradictions Following Liberalization for the CPI(M)'s theoretical journal. cpim.org/content/agrari… 2/n: Mandatory disclosure: Utsa, who is among the most eminent Marxist scholars on Indian agriculture (& became famous by arguing in favour of capitalist dev in Indian agriculture against veterans in the now famous Mode of Production debate) was my supervisor in CESP, JNU

1/n: My @CASIPenn Working Paper : Deceleration, Pandemic, Recession: Does India have a Plan? has been officially published now. You can read it here.

Here is a short thread summarising the arguments.

casi.sas.upenn.edu/content/decele… 2/n: India’s economic pain due to the pandemic will be larger due to two reasons. Our economy was caught in a sharp deceleration phase even before COVID-19 hit. This means both businesses & the govt don’t have enough ammunition to fight the pandemic.

MPhil to be discontinued under New Education Policy Introduction of major and minor programmes allowing interdisciplinary learning

Today is Swami Sahajanand Saraswati’s death anniversary. Swamiji started as a Sanskrit scholar, ascetic, social reformer, educationist, freedom fighter & ended up as a radical peasant leader & one of the founders of the Kisan Sabha in India 1/n It is a pity that most people either do not know Swamiji or see him as a parochial leader of Bhumihars. His legacy is misused to justify feudal oppression. Swamiji broke ranks with the Bhumihar Mahasabha on the question of anti colonialism & peasant rights 2/n

Landed in Delhi after a #VandeBharatMission flight from Dulles, Washington today. Some thoughts & observations.

No passengers, no flights (security takes a minute at most) and no shops.
Airports have become ghost towns. Captures the Covid-19 economic disruption 1/n Flight was full. But it’s mostly pent-up demand. Elderly, who were visiting their children & students, mostly. Once this dries up, and the virus doesn’t slow down, things will become worse for the travel industry 2/n

Just finished rereading the chapter on Migration from the 2016-17 Eco Survey when @arvindsubraman was the CEA.
It uses various methods including analysis of unreserved railway travel to argue that extant figures on no. of migrants in India were gross underestimates. 1/n This govt also had a report by a working group on migration India in 2017 identifying in-migrant and out-mingrant districts. The point being the government had the intellectual resources to predict the potential scale and direction of the reverse migration which was coming 2/n

Sharing snippets of @htTweets data coverage of the #2019ElectionResults edition.
This has been a team effort along with @naalmot @vijdankawoosa & our excellent editorial & graphic support. (1/n) 3 factors explain the BJP victory: consolidation in strongholds, flexibility with alliance partners & exploiting anti incumbency in states where BJP is not a dominant force (2/n)

Starting today @htTweets is launching a 5-part series on India’s employment challenge. Our motivation is not to throw more guesstimates about no. of jobs generated under the present govt. We want to highlight structural issues in the job market which are often ignored 1/n In the first part, I lay down the central political economy challenge of India’s job market (finding more and remunerative non-farm jobs) & then discuss what can or can’t be done to achieve this. 2/n
m.hindustantimes.com/india-news/ind…