I'd be curious to read--from both sides--about a very simple topic when it comes to this Supreme Court debate: raw political power
Let's be honest, the Senate didn't act on Garland and might well act on Trump's selection for a simple reason: Republicans didn't want Obama's judge, they do want Trump's judge, and so they may act on one but not the other.
Under the constitution, this is well within their power! They control the Senate, the constitution gives the Senate the power to confirm nominees, and therefore the Senate confirmed the nominee it wanted but not the other.
I'd like to read the perspective from the left on this basic fact. Obviously, it sucks to be caught on the losing end of this. But the fact that the Senate wants one nominee but not the other is not exactly an inconsequential argument in a Democratic system
I'd also be interested to hear the perspective on the right on this: are there any limits here? It sure doesn't seem like it. And if not, why is it so absurd that Democrats would use their power to pack the court? Isn't it just the same logic of raw power politics?
Anyway, that's what this whole debate is really about: what are the limits of the use of constitutional power to advance nakedly partisan objectives at the expense of precedent. On judiciary, there's been 15 years of tit-for-tat retaliation escalation in this area.
So I'd like to read the best takes that really grapple with all of this. Please share if you've seen something good and thoughtful on it!
Here's one take: the left does not believe the system has democratic legitimacy. Being honest about that position is pretty important, and it has hugely important consequences for the future of the US
As you may have read, our colleagues in the Tech Guild are on strike. While they don't play a role in the model itself, they built and maintain the infrastructure that feeds us data and lets us publish on the internet
This is true of everything on the nyt (including our results pages), but the needle is a huge data load, it's more brittle, and we've only published it a handful of times (v 1000s of results pages). There will be bugs and it could be hard to debug
A final point that I *hope* is obvious from the whole of my work, but may not be obvious if you only read individual snippets: I have no idea whether our polls (or any polls) polls be "right", too good for Harris, or too good for Trump.
No one does.
This cycle, I've tried to offer real meat to these scenarios with evidence -- not just abstract "30% harris landslide, 30% trump landslide, 40% too close.
If you personally found some of that evidence more convincing than others, that's great. Me? I have no idea
A quick summation of some of those points
- There's no reason to believe pollsters 'fixed' what went wrong in 2020
- There's some evidence nonresponse bias may be better, but also evidence it's still there / no reason to assume it's gone. Unknown whether weighting fixes
The final Times/Siena polls of the campaign show a dead-heat, with Harris gaining along late deciders in the Sun Belt while the Rust Belt tightens nytimes.com/2024/11/03/us/…
Whatever happens on Tuesday, the polls suggest that Harris has mostly reassembled the Democratic coalition in the battlegrounds, with Harris still gaining among Black, Hispanic and younger voters It was just a few months ago that we had Trump 9 or 12 pts in GA/NV v. Biden!
At the same time, Trump ha consolidated white working class voters down the stretch -- including erasing Harris' lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Suddenly, it's a much more 2020-like battleground map
For real! There isn't any polling, there's a lot of evidence that nearby New York is going poorly for Democrats, it's a diverse state, and the New Jersey Democratic showing in 21/22 was not great either
Unfortunately, the NJ sample across our national polling isn't very large but... what we do have does suggest above-average Trump gains, even after being weighted statewide (whether you look at the Trump-Harris sample or the larger sample adding Biden-Trump)
A few comments on the Times/Siena polls, based on some replies I see
1. One thing worth keeping in mind in the great 'recall vote' debate is that the decision was made in late 21/early 22.
The reasons were straightforward: it made polls less accurate, including our 2020 polls. It was basically the only way to make them worse.
It was also an especially fraught moment for recall vote, IMO. At the time, it wasn't clear Trump would run; it was possible he would be in jail by now. Even if it helped in '22 (it didn't for us), the risk for '24 was obvious and extraordinary
Harris 78, Trump 15 in our Times/Siena oversample of Black voters.
In our 2020 national polls, Biden led 83-6 among Black voters. nytimes.com/2024/10/12/us/…
I'll have more on this soon, but if you're the sort of person squinting at whether Trump will win 13 or 16 percent of the Black vote, it's worth flagging the sensitivity of that kind of question to different definitions of "Black" and varying turnout
The poll result here takes a broadly inclusive definition of Black voters, including multiracial and Hispanic Black voters (Black alone or in combination, as the Census would put it).
Harris is up 80-13 with the narrower group of voters who are only Black, not multiracial