Apropos of a major project I'm working on: Up through 1920, Congress passed an apportionment act every 10 years. They regularly increased the size of the House, and specified how districts had to look, e.g., from 1870-1930 they had to have a roughly even number of residents. 1/
had to be compact, etc. If you look at the appendices to Colgrove v. Green and Baker v. Carr, the "roughly even" requirement actually worked pretty well. Then, in 1920, the headline for the census was "for the 1st time, a majority of Americans lived in urban areas." 2/
Now by "urban" it mean "in excess of 5k people" but nevertheless, rural legislators freaked out, especially Midwestern Republicans who had seen major Democratic cities spring up practically overnight in Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, etc. 3/
So they didn't re-apportion in 1920. At all. Obviously this was controversial, given the Constitution and whatnot, so in 1929 they came up with a compromise: They would re-apportion, but they would do away with the equality requirement. 4/
So states like IL would add seats, but they would make them "at-large" seats so that they didn't have to disturb the underlying map that had been put in place. They also made re-apportionment automatic so that a deadlock like 1920 wouldn't happen, and set the House at 435. 5/
Incidentally, this is what set the stage for one-person-one-vote. In 1946 the Court refused to strike down Illinois' map, even though one IL district had 112k members, while another had 914k. 6/
The Court finally had enough in 1963 in Wesberry, and struck down a Georgia map with 823k in the Atlanta district but 272k in the rural 9th district. 7/7
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And FWIW, my meta-take on the election is this: I thought Harris would walk away with it when she got the nomination, because the calendar was so favorable. Nominee -> Veep pick -> Convention -> Debate -> Early Voting starts. 1/
What I missed was that, by not going through a primary process, she never really had a chance to define herself. I have no idea what her elevator pitch is, except Not Trump. Which is not a terrible pitch, but I'm not sure it's a winning one either. 2/
In fact, I thought the debate was a kind of missed opportunity; sure she dragged Donald Trump across the stage by the combover for the final 80 minutes, but you didn't really come away with a great sense of who she is. 3/
On supposed conservative hypocrisy re Gay (setting aside whether plagiarism really =s "canceling") there's a deep split among conservatives going back to the (highly consequential, in hindsight) @DavidAFrench vs. @SohrabAhmari fight. Rufo, Linsday and Gov. DeSantis 1/
are clearly in the Ahmari camp. That camp basically boils down to "if they want a war, we'll give them a war good and hard." There's no hypocrisy there. They're clear that they're coming for lefties, even if it means losing some conservatives in the process. 2/
The conservatives in the French camp have been, from what I can see, ambivalent about the Gay affair. Some are willing to be gracious, some think the plagiarism can be separated from the motivation of those who bring it, some are genuinely undecided. 3/
The biggest re-alignment of the last 100 yrs -- the sudden movement of Black voters from Republicans to Democrats -- caught both parties utterly flat-footed in 1936. In some ways it made no sense: Democrats still had segregationists throught their party. 1/
But for most, the economic issues trumped the social issues (interestingly, wealthier Blacks stayed Republican until the 1960s). Rs didn't fully appreciate those voters weren't coming back until the 60s. Italians flipped R in 1940 because of a speech FDR gave. 2/
In 2000, everyone, and I mean like @CharlieCookDC and @StuPolitics (both of whom I followed religiously at the time) were skeptical about WV going R. Even at the time, I doubt if anyone appreciated where it would be in 20 years.NH did a similar move in reverse from '88 - '96. 3/
I've been saying this over and over again, but: This is why inflation is so destructive to presidencies. With unemployment, overwhelming # of people are still employed, lots of unemployed expect to get hired back, etc. When you get your job, it's largely done. 1/
Inflation is different. People at all income levels notice it, whether it's the $10 happy meal or the $150 Outback delivery or [whatever good someone really rich buys and notices, I don't know]. 2/
You notice it when you think about moving, and realize the interest rate on the loan you could get is like 3x what you're paying. If you have credit card debt or floating debt, your interest on that explodes. 3/
Trump has double digit leads on being able to best handle the economy, inflation, crime, securing the border, the Ukraine War, and the Israeli conflict. Biden has a double digit lead on abortion rights. Everything else is single digits which sounds good except . . . 1/
things like healthcare policy and social security are *supposed* to be double digit Democratic leads. But what really catches my eye are the personal attribute questions. 3/
Today is my son Judson's 16th Birthday. Sixteen years ago, I thought about how on today we'd drive together to the DMV, get his driver's license, and how proud I'd be of him for passing, and frankly myself for teaching him how to drive, the way my Dad taught me and his him. 1/
That's not how today is going. Judd was diagnosed with autism at age 2.5. At the time, his doctor said he just had a "touch" of autism. I viewed it as a roadbump. To the extent I'm smart, it isn't in a traditional way, it's in a "think way outside the box" way. 2/
(today I recognize that ability to make weird connections no one else does as my own form of autism-ish behavior, which I've been able to redirect in a positive way, but anyway). I knew I could fix this, the way I'd been able to fix almost every other problem I'd encountered. 3/