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Rob Lee Profile picture
@RALee85
Sep 20, 2020 • 2175 tweets • >60 min read • Read on X
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Armenia's MFA claims that Armenia has shot down two Azerbaijani helicopters and 3 UAVs. 117/
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Armenian MFA statement: "Early this morning, the Azerbaijani side launched missile attacks along the entire line of contact targeting also the peaceful settlements, including the capital Stepanakert." 119/
mfa.am/en/interviews-…
The Azerbaijani MoD confirmed the loss of one helicopter (they say the crew survived), and claimed they destroyed 12 Osa air defense systems, adding that they "decided to launch a counter-offensive operation of our troops along the entire front" 120/
mod.gov.az/en/news/azerba…
Notably, the US Embassy in Azerbaijan released a warning to US citizens earlier this week due to heightened tensions. 121/
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The Azerbaijani MoD denies Armenia's claims that they lost 3 tanks, 2 helicopters, and 3 UAVs, but they already confirmed that one of their helicopters was shot down. 126/
mod.gov.az/en/news/minist… ImageImage
Armenia posted a video showing two Azerbaijani tanks (they look like T-72M1) getting hit by a munition. 127/
Video of Armenian military and Artsakh T-72 tanks and towed artillery in Stepanakert. 128/
t.me/military_arm/4…
Photos reportedly of Azerbaijani armored vehicles on fire. 129/
nkrmil.am/news/view/2907 ImageImage
130/
Armenia released another video showing two armored vehicles on fire. The 1st looks like an engineering vehicle driving past BMP-2 on fire. The 2nd look's like a tank, and it is clear its ammunition was struck, which led to the fire. 131/
The Azerbaijani MoD says its "counter-offensive operation continues successfully" adding that they are striking Armenian command posts, maneuver forces, military equipment, and facilities with artillery and aviation assets. No footage released yet. 132/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-az… Image
It looks like the first vehicle on fire is an IMR-2 engineering vehicle and the second is a T-72 tank with a pair of BMP-3s. 133/ ImageImage
134/
Video from the Armenian MoD showing two more Azerbaijani tanks (they look like T-72) being struck by munitions, presumably artillery. Poor dispersion by the Azerbaijani force here. 135/
Video of Turkish journalists near the fighting. 136/
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A couple of initial points. First, I am skeptical of the claims made from both sides of what they destroyed and how the fighting is going, but it is clear this is a major escalation. In addition, the fighting right now has more of a Russian-Turkish element than normal. 138/
Second, a key lesson from the fighting in July is that information operations are key. So far, Armenia has released a number of videos showing Azerbaijani vehicles being destroyed (adding credibility to their claims), while Azerbaijan has not. 139/
That doesn't mean Baku is lying about all of their claims, but by being slower to release this footage, they are ceding the narrative of how the conflict is going to Armenia. I'm sure Azerbaijan will post UAV footage, but publishing it quickly is important. 140/
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Longer video from an Armenian Telegram channel of artillery strikes on Azerbaijani tanks and IFVs. You can see a large number of BMP-2 situated in a line. 142/
t.me/military_arm/4…
What looks like an Azerbaijani BMP-2 on fire. 143/
t.me/military_arm/4… Image
This is not how you want your forces situated with an artillery or aviation threat. 144/ ImageImageImage
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Azerbaijan's MoD claimed that it has "liberated" several villages. 148/
TASS reports that the Foreign Minister of Russia, Sergei Lavrov, and the Foreign Minister of Turkey, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, had a phone call today to discuss the fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 149/
tass.ru/mezhdunarodnay…
Photos of damage in Stepanakert from Azerbaijani strikes. 150/
t.me/reartsakh/3456 Image
151/
From the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman. 152/
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman also denies that Azerbaijan has taken back 6 villages. 153/
The Azerbaijani MoD has begun releasing UAV footage of their strikes on Armenian targets. This footage, which looks quite similar to that of a Turkish TB2 UCAV, shows munitions destroying Armenian vehicles in cover. 154/
They look like Osa air defense systems. Azerbaijan previously claimed that they destroyed 12 Armenian Osa AD systems today. It looks like 3 of them were damaged or destroyed here, possibly by MAM-L munitions. 155/ ImageImageImageImage
Earlier today, there was an unknown aircraft from Turkey flying along the border with Armenia, which later crossed into Armenia. Was this a Turkish TB2 UCAV that flew from Turkey to conduct these strikes or were these operated by Azerbaijan? 156/
There are obviously a ton of very important implications if this was a Turkish TB2 operated by Turkey, which would be a very significant escalation in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Armenia is also a CSTO ally of Russia, and the collective security component should apply.157/ Image
As others have noted, Azerbaijan and Turkey announced that Baku would purchase 6 TB2 UCAVs in June, but I haven't seen confirmation that the deal was completed and the TB2 arrived in Azerbaijan. 158/
defensenews.com/unmanned/2020/…
From Armenia's official twitter account. 159/
The Clash Report Telegram channel that published many of the videos of Turkish TB2 UCAV strikes in Syria and Libya (and is clearly close to Turkish authorities) also says these were TB2 UCAV strikes in this video. 160/
t.me/ClashReport/644 Image
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Another thing to keep an eye on. 164/
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman claims that Azerbaijan has been employing its largest caliber MLRS systems, including the Smerch, T-300 Kasirga, and the Belarusian Polonez, which has a max range of 200km. 165/
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During previous flare ups, including July, both sides chose to not use their longest range systems. If this is true, the escalation risks are even greater as is the risk that each side begins to strike military targets or cities deep in Armenian or Azerbaijani territory. 166/
*Azerbaijan's variant of the Polonez has a 300km range. After the fighting in 2016, Russia supplied Iskander-M ballistic missile systems to Armenia, reportedly straight from the Russian military (i.e. not MTCR compliant, though that may have changed). 167/
iz.ru/1036842/anton-…
Even the MTCR-compliant export variant of the Iskander has a range of 280km, which means Armenia could strike targets across most of Azerbaijan from Armenian territory (or Baku if they launch from Nagorno-Karabakh). Armenia also received 4 Su-30SM fighters last December. 168/ ImageImage
In short, both sides have longer-range aircraft and artillery/MLRS systems that can strike each other's capitals, a capability that they effectively lacked before 2016. During the fighting in July, both sides chose to not use these systems, but that seems to have changed. 169/
Azerbaijan released a second video that also appears to be from a TB2 UCAV, showing a strike on another vehicle in cover (look's like an Osa with camouflage netting), and damaged armored vehicles, possibly BMP-2 or 2S1 Gvozdika. 170/
Screenshots from that TB2 UCAV footage. The first shows what looks like an Osa AD system with a tarp/camo netting. The others show an armored column of at least 8 vehicles. The lead vic is smoking and the 2nd (and maybe 3rd) appears to be damaged. 171/ ImageImageImageImage
Azerbaijan claimed that that the vehicles in that armored column were abandoned by Armenian forces as they retreated. Unclear what damaged those vehicles. The TB2 could have been supporting MLRS or artillery in that case. 172/ Image
Video taken from Stepanakert that reportedly shows an Azerbaijani UAV being shot down. 173/
t.me/military_arm/5…
174/
The Armenian MoD released another video showing Azerbaijani BTRs (the front might be a BTR-82A) being struck by a munition, and footage of an Azerbaijani column with a number of damaged or destroyed trucks and a BMP-3 and IMR-3. 175/
BMP-3 attempting to tow another BMP-3 with a burning truck in the foreground, and an IMR-3 vehicle behind a truck and next to some other vehicle with another BMP-3 in the third frame. 176/ ImageImageImage
I guess this Kavkaz 2020 photo op wasn't good enough. 177/ ImageImage
178/
If you can speak Russian, @CentreAST wrote a good book in 2018 about the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh with background on the military and security issues (including arms imports from Russia), which is free to download.
cast.ru/books/v-ozhida…
Another TB2 UCAV video from Azerbaijan showing air or artillery strikes on Armenian positions. It appears that most if not all of the targets in this video were not struck by the TB2, which is instead providing targeting support. 180/
Another TB2 video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing what appears to be 3 Strela-10 air defense systems in cover being struck, likely from MAM-L TB2 munitions. 181/
Turkey admitted that during fighting in Idlib in Feb-March they employed F-16 fighters to shoot down Syrian aircraft and likely to bomb targets while in Turkish airspace. They also can launch SOM-J JSF stand-off missiles with a 150 + nm range. 182/
I don't know if that claim is true, but it is possible. In particular, Turkey used F-16 with long-range glide bombs or stand-off munitions to strike longer-range air defense systems in Idlib in March while using TB2 to target shorter-range systems. 183/ ImageImage
Another claim by the spokeswoman of the Armenian MoD about Azerbaijani losses. 184/ Image
Video from Nagorno-Karabakh's Artsakh Defence Army. It is quite graphic, so I won't post the entire thing but it starts with wreckage supposedly of an Azerbaijani helicopter that was shot down today. 185/
The video shows 8 bodies from the Azerbaijani military as well as three BMP-2, one of which was a catastrophic kill while the other two appear to be damaged/mobility kills. 186/
vk.com/armenia_milita… ImageImageImageImage
Look's like a TM-62P2 anti-tank mine and a pair of RPG-7. 187/ ImageImage
Video of Armenian reservists being called up and sent to Nagorno-Karabakh. 188/
The Azerbaijani MoD claims they destroyed 22 tanks and armored vehicles, 15 Osa air defense systems, 18 UAVs, 8 artillery pieces, 3 ammo depots, and killed or wounded 550 servicemen. 189/
t.me/ClashReport/654 Image
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A bad sign. 191/
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Video purportedly from Nagarno-Karabakh of a rocket fired from a 9K58 Smerch MLRS (possibly a 9M55K) that didn’t detonate. 195/
t.me/reartsakh/3540
196/
Azerbaijan released another TB2 video showing strikes, presumably from MAM-L munitions, on three systems in cover. The first and third appear to be Osa (Osa-AK/AKM), but I'm not sure about the second target with a tarp on top (Tor-M2KM?). 197/
1st is an Osa, 2nd I believe is also an Osa, and 3rd @pfc_joker points out appears to be an Osa 9T217 transporter-loader vehicle. 198/ ImageImageImageImage
Another video with TB2 UCAV footage showing a strike on an Armenian T-72 tank. 199/
Nagarno-Karabakh's Artsakh Defence Army published a video of some of the Azerbaijani casualties, presumably from the earlier video with 3 BMP-2. I won't post the video, but It shows at least 9 bodies and some of their identification documents. 200/
ImageImageImageImage
201/
Nagorno-Karabakh officials claimed earlier today that their forces destroyed 33 Azerbaijani tanks, 4 helicopters, 27 UAVs, and 4 armored vehicles. I would take this with some skepticism. 202/ ImageImage
Another photo purportedly from Nagorno-Karabakh of a Smerch MLRS rocket launched by Azerbaijani forces. 203/
t.me/milinfolive/63… Image
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman claimed that Azerbaijan used its TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS systems early this morning. 204/
facebook.com/shushanstepany… ImageImage
An ominous statement from the Azerbaijani MoD. 205/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-en… Image
The Azerbaijani MoD released a video purportedly showing several Armenian soldiers (I counted 8) who were killed in the fighting. They claim that the high ground near Talysh was cleared of Armenian/NK forces, who they say suffered heavy casualties. 206/
mod.gov.az/en/news/advant…
Take this with a grain of salt. Semyon Pegov’s WarGonzo Telegram channel is claiming that Turkish SOF is preparing to be sent to Azerbaijan because Azerbaijan’s initial offensive failed to achieve its goals. 207/
t.me/wargonzo/3481 Image
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan claims that "several dozen" enemy bodies are behind Armenian lines after their counterattack. 208/
facebook.com/shushanstepany… Image
Another video released by the Azerbaijani MoD showing what appears to be AGS-30 grenade launchers, Podnos 82mm mortars, BM-21 Grad MLRS, and towed artillery pieces firing on Armenian positions. 209/
mod.gov.az/az/news/bolmel…
210/
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan said that Azerbaijan employed TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS systems this morning but said they didn't suffer any losses from its salvo. She also posted this video, but I'm not sure what the context is. 211/
facebook.com/shushanstepany…
Azerbaijani Major General Mayis Barkhudarov: "We will fight to destroy the enemy completely." He also said that there are fierce battles currently going on. 212/
mod.gov.az/en/news/major-… Image
Nagorno-Karabakh acknowledged the loss of another 15 soldiers, bringing its total losses to 31 KIA so far. 213/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
Armenian Defense Ministry spokesman Artsrun Hovhannisyan said that ~200 Nagorno-Karabakh soldiers have been wounded thus far. 214/
ria.ru/20200928/karab…
reuters.com/article/idL8N2…
215/
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Two more Armenian T-72 tanks struck by TB2 UCAVs. One of the advantages of TB2 UCAVs with MAM-L munitions compared to artillery and other forms of fire support is that they can easily destroy armor in cover. 217/
The Azerbaijani MoD said that their artillery, in this case, 2S7 Pion 203 mm heavy artillery pieces, engaged Armenian artillery from its 5th Mountain Rifle Regiment. They said Armenian artillery was striking Azerbaijani positions near Aghdara. 218/
mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-…
The use of 2S7 Pion, as well as Smerch, TOS-1A, and reportedly Polonez and Kasirga MLRS, which Azerbaijan typically has not employed during fighting with Armenian or Nagorno-Karabakh forces is another indication of how different the current fighting is. 219/
Azerbaijan has an advantage in heavy and long-range artillery and MLRS, in addition to UAVs, UCAVs, and loitering munitions. Baku employed its Israeli-made loitering munitions and ATGMs heavily in July, but wasn't able to translate that into battlefield gains. 220/
Despite greater defense spending and high-tech arms imports, Azerbaijan had limited success in the 2016 fighting but didn't take back much if any terrain in July while sustaining casualties. This time Baku is determined to achieve tangible successes to avoid further protests.221/
This makes this iteration of the fighting more dangerous and more likely to escalate. If Baku doesn't achieve tangible successes (i.e. retake territory), it risks more public anger as happened in July, and Armenia is unlikely to agree to a cease fire if it loses territory. 222/
Another difference from July is that Azerbaijani published videos of strikes on targets that weren't of particularly high military value, but not this time. In this video you can see an Armenian D-30 howitzer's truck, T-72, and Osa AD system hit. 223/
mod.gov.az/en/news/severa…
Ural truck with 122mm ammunition for the D-30 howitzer, Osa AD system (probably an Osa-AKM), and T-72 tank. Azerbaijan has been specifically targeting front-line Armenian air defenses with TB2 (e.g. Osa and Strela-10), which is typical in the beginning of a conflict. 224/ ImageImageImageImage
Semyon Pegov and others are claiming that Russian private military contractors including Donbas veterans are ready to go to Nagorno-Karabakh to fight on behalf of Armenia whenever they receive the signal. 225/
t.me/wargonzo/3491 ImageImage
If Armenia struggles to overcome Azerbaijan's greater military hardware and fire support assets, this might be a way for Russia to support Armenia without employing direct military force (which it doesn't want to do). 226/
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Armenia released a video showing an ATGM strike on a truck (possibly artillery or MLRS), and artillery strikes near two Azerbaijani tanks and an artillery piece. 229/
Screenshots of the ATGM and artillery strikes. On second thought, it look's as though the last target is also a tank and not an artillery piece. 230/ ImageImageImageImage
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Another video released by Armenia that shows strikes on an Azerbaijani armor column with tanks and IFVs, as well as a strike on a building that was presumably being used by Azerbaijani forces. 233/
Screenshots from the video. 234/ ImageImageImageImage
Armenian D-30 122mm howitzer crews in action. 235/
Another video, presumably of artillery strikes on Azerbaijani positions and vehicles, released by the Artsakh Defence Army. 236/
Alexander Kots claims this is a video of an Azerbaijani Israeli-made Harop loitering munition. Harops were used successfully during the 2016 fighting. 237/
t.me/sashakots/16995
Kots also posted a video of what appears to be a downed aircraft. This was reportedly an An-2 aircraft. 238/
t.me/sashakots/16992
Another video purportedly of an Azerbaijani loitering munition over Martakert. 239/
Pretty obvious this is related to the fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 240/
Both Reuters and the Guardian are reporting that Syrians from Idlib are being flown by Turkey (or planning to) to fight for Azerbaijan. There have been a number of reports on social media and elsewhere saying the same thing. 241/
theguardian.com/world/2020/sep…
reuters.com/article/armeni…
"Armenia’s ambassador to Moscow said on Monday that Turkey had sent around 4,000 fighters from northern Syria to Azerbaijan and that they were fighting there". Reuters reports that the fighters would get paid $1,500 a month. 242/
reuters.com/article/armeni…
Video reportedly of Armenians in Georgia trying to return to Armenia to fight but being blocked by Georgian border guards. 243/
t.me/reartsakh/3614
Another photo of a Smerch MLRS rocket reportedly launched from Azerbaijani forces. Of course, this could be a photo of one of the same rockets photographed before. 244/
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The Armenian Ambassador to Moscow Vardan Toganyan said, "We believe that should the need arise, we will request Russia [for additional military assistance]," but "As of today, we don’t think that we need additional troops or other forces," 246/
tass.com/world/1205929
Toganyan also said that Armenia will use its Iskander-M ballistic missile systems if Turkey employs F-16 fighters in Nagorno-Karabakh, but said that Armenian air defenses are currently coping with the threat from UAVs. 247/
ria.ru/20200928/iskan…
The Caliber az site posted a video showing what appears to be an Armenian/Nagorno-Karabakh observation post with two Ural-4320 trucks that was overrun. The video shows ~10 bodies. 248/
ImageImageImageImage
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The Arsakh Defense Army announced that another 26 soldiers were killed today. 250/
t.me/reartsakh/3620 Image
251/
That brings the two-day death total for the Artsakh Defense Army to 84. 252/
interfax.ru/world/729029
Video purportedly of the wreckage of an Azerbaijani UAV or loitering munition. 253/
vk.com/armenia_milita…
254/
Regarding the presumed downed An-2 aircraft. 255/
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Another video from the Armenian MoD of what appear to be artillery strikes on Azerbaijani positions, including vehicles on fire. There have been a number of cases of Azerbaijani tanks or armored vehicles catching on fire after their ammunition was hit.257/
The Times is also reporting that Turkey is sending Syrians to Azerbaijan to fight against Armenian forces. 258/
thetimes.co.uk/article/nagorn… Image
259/
It isn't surprising that Armenia would hold back its newest and most sophisticated air defense systems from the front lines, to protect critical defense sites and cities. But in Syria, Tor-M2 was Russia's most effective air defense system against COTS UAVs. 260/
Interestingly, Azerbaijan has mostly published videos from TB2 UCAVs thus far, but many of the videos they released from the July fighting was from Spike NLOS ATGM missiles. 261/
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Deleted my previous tweet because there was a duplicate. From the Azerbaijani MoD's videos released thus far, they show 6 Osa (likely Osa-AKM) 9A33-series TELARs and 1 9T217 Transporter/Transloader struck by munitions (presumably, MAM-L from TB2 UCAVs). 263/ Image
Photos of that 1 Osa 9T217 Transporter/Transloader and 3 Strela-10 air defense systems that were also struck in the Azerbaijani TB2 UCAV footage. 264/ ImageImage
Azerbaijan released a photo of artillery fire over the night. Look's like 2S7 Pion 203mm heavy artillery. 265/
What appears to be an Azerbaijani 2S7 Pion 203mm heavy artillery piece firing on Armenian targets. 266/ Image
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Azerbaijan released another TB2 UCAV video, presumably taken from last night, of a strike on Armenian tanks. Keep in mind that MAM-L need an almost direct hit for a mobility kill let alone a K-kill. Regardless, Armenian forces need more dispersion. 272/
Video of an Azerbaijani loitering munition, possibly an Israeli-made Harop, striking Armenian soldiers in a trench line. 273/
t.me/milinfolive/63…
Video of Azerbaijani artillery and MLRS engaging Armenian targets. 274/
Armenians soldiers engaging Azerbaijani soldiers on a hill top with small arms fire. 275/
Nagorno-Karabakh air defense forces (looks like it is an Osa-AKM) apparently shooting down an Azerbaijani Orbiter-1K loitering munition. 276/
t.me/military_arm/5…
Reportedly the wreckage of an Azerbaijani UAV, possibly a Hermes-450. 277/
t.me/military_arm/5…
Video of Azerbaijani TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS during on Armenian targets. It appears they quickly change positions after launching their salvo (they have a short max range). 278/
t.me/military_arm/5…
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan shared this video saying that Armenian Igla MANPADS shot down 2 helicopters, but the video appears to show the tail of one or two An-2 aircraft (possibly the same one that was shot down earlier). 279/
I'll wait for confirmation that this was from a Turkish F-16. It could have been from an Azerbaijani Air Force MiG-29, but I would note that Turkish F-16s shot down Syrian Air Force Su-24 and L-39 aircraft in March while remaining in Turkish airspace. 280/
bbc.com/news/world-eur…
Another video from the Armenian MoD that shows strikes on several Azerbaijani armored vehicles as well as infantry. Again, the pronounced fires are from the vehicles' ammunition storage getting struck by a munition. 281/
Semyon Pegov showing Armenian D-20 152mm howitzers in action. 282/
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Another video of Armenian D-30 howitzers from Semyon Pegov. 283/
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Armenian mortar fire. 284/
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Video from earlier today reportedly of some kind of aircraft, possibly a UAV, getting shot down northeast of Stepanakert. 285/
t.me/wargonzo/3499
A bus in Vardenis was destroyed earlier today. Reportedly, the driver was the only person inside at the time and survived. This is fairly significant as Vardenis is in Armenia proper, and the M-11 is the main highway from Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh. 286/
facebook.com/arcrun/posts/3… ImageImageImageImage
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan
claimed that air forces (presumably, she's talking about TB2 UCAVs) were employed in the strike on Vardenis. Obviously, this was an attempt to prevent reinforcements from arriving from Armenia. 287/
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The Armenian MoD made a statement that the Turkish F-16 that allegedly downed the Armenian Su-25 took off from the Ganja Airport, and that Azerbaijani Su-25 and TB2 took off from the Dollyar Air Base to strike Vardenis, Mets, Masrik, and Sotk. 288/
mil.am/ru/news/8440 Image
Video posted by Artsrun Hovhannisyan of that damaged bus in Vardenis. As a reminder, Azerbaijan destroyed a bus with Armenian reinforcements during they fighting in 2016 with an Israeli-made Harop loitering munition. 289/
facebook.com/arcrun/videos/…
Photos from the air strike on that bus in Vardenis. 290/
facebook.com/arcrun/posts/3… ImageImageImageImage
Video of an Azerbaijani aircraft being struck by a surface-to-air missile. Nagorno-Karabakh forces claim it was a helicopter but it looks more like an An-2 or other aircraft. 291/
t.me/military_arm/5…
Another video posted by Armenian forces that appears to show another Azerbaijani UAV that was shot down. 292/
t.me/military_arm/5…
Nagorno-Karabakh forces released a compilation video of various strikes on Azerbaijani forces, much of which has been published before. 293/
The end of the video shows some kind of aircraft being shot down. 294/
And a better look, from two different directions, of that Azerbaijani IMR-2 that was destroyed during the start of the fighting. Clearly hit by a ground-launched direct fire munition. 295/
Azerbaijan has a significant advantage in quantity and quality of fire support, but the question is whether they are employing fires effectively. Are they just shooting at Armenian targets, or are they using fires to support maneuver? I'm guessing it is mostly the former. 296/
Obviously, Armenian/NK forces have fortified and defensible positions, but Azerbaijan has a variety of UAV/UCAVs, as well as heavy artillery/MLRS, like the 2S7, Smerch, and TOS-1A, and well-equipped ground forces. Employed correctly, they should be able to retake territory. 297/
But a # of the videos have indicated Azerbaijan isn't always employing its forces effectively. In 2016 much of Azerbaijan's successes involved its elite forces, which sustained heavy casualties, but the gap between its elite and conventional forces is likely large. 298/ ImageImage
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Because of the gap between its elite and conventional forces, a limiting factor in Azerbaijan's offensive is whether it can limit casualties among its elite units, because its conventional forces will likely struggle to seize well-defended Armenian positions. 301/
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I wouldn't put much faith in these numbers. Armenian officials appear to have misidentified downed helicopters as UAVs or AN-2 on a few occasions already. The UAV and helicopter figure is almost certainly highly exaggerated. 303/
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Video of a press conference today with the Armenian MoD's Artsrun Hovhannisyan. He gave the same figures for Azerbaijani losses though the 137 figure is for tanks and other armored vehicles, and he said Azerbaijan suffered 1,900 total WIA and 790 KIA. 306/
He said the attack on the Vardenis region was conducted by Air Force assets, in particular UCAVs, and targeted civilian infrastructure as well as a bus. He reiterated the claim that a Turkish F-16 shot down an Armenian Su-25 today, killing its pilot. 307/
He also asked people to not call their friends in the military because they can then be targeted by Azerbaijan. 308/
Nagorno-Karabakh BM-21 Grad MLRS. 309/
Between this and attacks on the bus along the M-11 highway, it seems Azerbaijan is focusing air strikes on interdicting reinforcements from Armenia. One problem with TB2 is that the MAM-L is a small munition and not great at making a road impassable. 310/
I wouldn't be surprised if some of Armenia's top air defense assets and maybe its Su-30SM fighters are dedicated to protecting this vital supply line between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. It would also be a possible target for Turkish F-16s if they are indeed taking part. 311/
Pretty intense video of Nagorno-Karabakh forces under fire from Azerbaijani artillery and possibly air strikes. You can also hear the humming of UAVs, possibly loitering munitions. 312/
Nagorno-Karabakh forces employing a 9K111 Fagot ATGM against Azerbaijani forces. 313/
Nagorno-Karabakh soldiers shooting at UAVs, likely loitering munitions, with their small arms. You can hear the UAVs' humming sound throughout the video. 314/
The first video released by Azerbaijan showing loitering munitions in use. In the video you can see 4 Armenian T-72 tanks and one 2S3 Akatsiya self-propelled howitzer hit from overhead (many of which were in cover). (h/t @Rebel44CZ) 315/
The start of that video of Nagorno-Karabakh forces that presumably shows Armenian or Nagorno-Karabakh reinforcements arriving at the front. You can see at least one destroyed tank on the drive up. 316/
Screenshots showing a destroyed Armenian tank and Azerbaijani soldiers from Nagorno-Karabakh forces' fighting positions. 317/ ImageImageImageImage
Turkish PMC/paramilitaries or Syrian private military contractors flying from Libya to Azerbaijan? 318/
Video showing air strikes and air defenses reportedly in Stepanakert. Hard to be sure, but it appears surface-to-air missiles successfully engaged two aerial targets, likely UAVs. 319/
Screenshots of the four Armenian T-72 tanks struck by loitering munitions, likely Israeli-made Harop, from the last video released by Azerbaijan. 320/ ImageImageImageImage
Video released by the Armenian MoD of an aircraft shot down by Armenian forces, presumably from an Igla MANPADS. 321/
Longer clip from that video with the wreckage of that aircraft shot down by Armenian forces. 322/
And here comes that aircraft flying from Libya. 323/
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A possible explanation for that flight from Libya to Azerbaijan is that it is a chartered flight carrying the Bangladeshi expatriates who tried to tried to cross into Europe. Obviously, I'll wait to see where it goes from Baku. 325/
dailyasianage.com/news/242740/th…
Video from Alexander Kots from earlier today showing Armenian D-20 152mm howitzers firing on Azerbaijani positions. 326/
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An Armenian D-20 152mm howitzer battery firing on Azerbaijani targets today. 329/
Photo: Alexander Kots
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Unless I've missed something, there hasn't been much news today about territorial gains today between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Armenia's Artsrun Hovhannisyan said he wouldn't mention the status of which towns or positions they held or didn't. 330/
He said that he they might release updated casualties figures tomorrow, and gave obviously exaggerated figures for Azerbaijan. Baku didn't provide any figures (that I saw), and they haven't been releasing casualties #'s. The Az MoD's website has also been down fairly often. 330/
Strangely, Azerbaijan seems to be conceding the IO side of the fight, by having their government websites inaccessible and releasing limited details. Ultimately, neither side seemed interested in providing the status of the front line and their losses. 331/
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Nagorno-Karabakh's defense forces released another video with identification documents and bodies of Azerbaijani servicemen. 334/
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This is wreckage reportedly of two Harop loitering munitions shot down near Stepanakert at 4:30 a.m. this morning. Banak says a third also violated Nagorno-Karabakh's airspace. 336/
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Armenian losses according to Baku:
~2,300 WIA and KIA
~130 tanks and armored vehicles destroyed
>200 artillery pieces, MLRS, grenade launchers
~25 air defense systems (including S-300)
6 command post and OPs
5 ammo depots
~50 AT weapons
55 vehicles
337/
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Azerbaijan claims the Armenian S-300 air defense system they destroyed was in Shushakend of the Khojaly region. They said Armenian forces were trying to retake lost positions in Madagiz and that fighting continues across the entire front. 338/
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Armenia (Ar) and Azerbaijan's (Az) losses according to each other:
Troops: Ar 2.3k WIA/KIA, Az 790 KIA, 1.9k WIA
Armor: Ar 130, Az 137
Artillery/MLRS: Ar ~200
UAVs: Az 72
Air Defense: Ar 25
Helicopters: Az 7
AT systems: Ar 50
340/
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I assume both figures are exaggerated, but the two sides gave similar figures for armor losses (~130) and overall casualties (Armenia allegedly suffering ~2.3k WIA/KIA and Azerbaijan with 1.9k WIA/KIA). I assume Armenia's claim included KIA as part of WIA. 341/
Video of Azerbaijani MLRS systems launching rockets at Armenian positions. 342/
Another video of TB2 UCAV strikes on Armenian vehicles. In this case, one Armenian BMP and two BM-21 Grad MLRS were targeted while all three were in cover. Not sure the last BM-21 was a direct hit though. 343/
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Screenshots of the three strikes. The first look's like a BMP-2, and the other two look like BM-21 Grad MLRS. Note, the presumed MAM-L strike on the third target appears to hit the berm and kick up plenty of dirt. Not clear whether it was destroyed. 344/ ImageImageImageImage
Another TB2 UCAV video from the Azerbaijani MoD with presumed MAM-L strikes on a 122mm D-30 and 152mm D-20 howitzer. The D-20 actually look's like it is in pretty decent shape after the strike. 345/
Screenshots of the D-30 and D-20 howitzers after the TB2 UCAV strikes. Not clear to me whether the D-20 was actually knocked out of action. One thing to keep in mind with TB2 strikes with MAM-L munitions is they generally need to be direct hits to destroy armor or artillery. 346/ ImageImageImageImage
Warning graphic video. This shows another TB2 UCAV strike on what look's like an Ural-4320 truck with ~20 Armenian soldiers walking nearby. You can see around a dozen bodies at the end. 347/
New video from Azerbaijan showing TB2 strikes on two Armenian T-72 tanks. The first look's like a direct hit, but the second is a near miss. The second is possibly a mobility kill but likely didn't do too much damage. 348/
Screenshots of the two strikes on Armenian T-72 tanks. 349/ ImageImageImageImage
Armenian forces have faced a threat from loitering munitions before, but TB2 change the equation in that they are harder to hear/see overhead and can strike targets deeper past the front lines. Armenian reinforcements need to expect air attacks starting in Armenia proper. 350/ Image
We're also seeing Azerbaijan going after different targets now. On the first day, the emphasis was on Armenian air defenses, like Osas and Strela-10s, and tanks that were likely near the FLOT. Now they are targeting artillery/MLRS, tanks, as well as groups of infantry. 351/ ImageImageImage
With TB2 operating overhead, apparently without too much difficulty now that many of the front line AD systems are destroyed, reinforcements including tanks and armor will remain priority targets, possibly making it more difficult for Armenia to hold positions under attack. 352/
Armenian and Nagorno-Karabakh forces are continuing to claim that Turkish F-16 fighters are operating over Nagorno-Karabakh. 353/
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From the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman. 354/
Another video from September 28 near Qaraxanbəyli with Armenian/Nagorno-Karabakh soldiers under Azerbaijani artillery fire. 355/
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Full video of those Armenian/Nagorno-Karabakh reinforcements arriving at the front on September 28. You can see 9M111 Fagot ATGMs being launched against Azerbaijani targets and soldiers trying to shoot UAVs, likely loitering munitions. 356/
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BBC's Russian Service has a good live feed of developments going on in Nagorno-Karabakh. 357/
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The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan claimed that Armenian forces have destroyed an Azerbaijani TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS system. 358/
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The Armenian MoD published photos of the Su-25 aircraft they claim was downed by a Turkish F-16 fighter. 359/
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I'm not gonna post any of them but there are a number of videos published from the Armenian-side of the bodies of Azerbaijani soldiers, some stacked on top of each other in the back of a truck or in a field. These kind of videos are being released daily. 361/
Video of what appears to be another Azerbaijani loitering munition strike on Armenian reinforcements. I'm not sure what the full context is, as that site has often not worked during the fighting. The vid cuts off before detonation. 362/
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An example of the laziness of the IO from both sides. The Azerbaijani MoD claims this is an Armenian Tochka-U missile. The photos to the right are of Tochkas, which don't look anything like that. Instead, it look's like a Smerch MLRS rocket. 363/
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Video released by Armenia showing artillery strikes on Azerbaijani targets. Hard to make out exactly what was struck, but it appears a couple of vehicles were destroyed. 365/
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New Azerbaijani TB2 UCAV video. It shows a strike on a BM-21 Grad MLRS and other targets that were likely hit by another platform. They say they destroyed 1 Uragan and 3 BM-21 MLRS, 1 Osa AD system, 1 IFV, and 2 D-20 howitzers "over the past hours". 369/
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New video from Armenia showing artillery strikes on Azerbaijani troops and equipment, including a platoon-size formation of troops in the open running for cover. 371/
Video of an Azerbaijani tank or armored vehicle being destroyed. 372/
New video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing loitering munitions striking various Armenian targets. Note, all 4 of the T-72 tanks and the 2S3 Aktasiya was in a previous video. Additional, BM-21 Grad MLRS, Osa, and other systems were in the video. 373/
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Supposedly, these two are decoys of Osa or Strela air defense systems. The chassis certainly is different. 374/ ImageImage
9A33 Osa TELAR, BM-21 Grad MLRS, ammunition for a towed howitzer (interesting that they targeted the ammunition rather than the artillery piece), and Ural truck transporting an anti-aircraft or anti-tank gun (S-60?). 375/ ImageImageImageImage
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman claims that Turkey is running all offensive air operations for Azerbaijan from a Turkish E7-T AEW&C aircraft, and is operating a UAV C2 station (presumably for the Turkish-made TB2 UCAVs). 376/ Image
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The Azerbaijani MoD's claims about Armenian losses today up to 1730:
-2 Osa-AKM air defense systems (likely TELARs)
-1 Uragan MLRS
-4 BM-21 Grad MLRS
-4 D-20 152mm howitzers
-16 tanks
-1 IFV
-2 trucks with troops
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And here are Azerbaijan’s losses according to the Armenian MoD, both in total and today. They claim that Azerbaijani TOS-1A, Uragan, and Smerch MLRS were destroyed today. 381/
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New video from Azerbaijan showing TB2 UCAVs striking 5 Armenian BM-21 Grad MLRS. The Azerbaijani MoD said they destroyed 8 Grad MLRS systems this evening. 382/
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Azerbaijan continues to focus on Armenia's artillery and MLRS systems after destroying many of the Osa-AKM and Strela-10 air defense systems. At this point, it would be better to give these vehicles better concealment from the air than cover from arty or ground systems. 383/ ImageImageImageImage
It isn't clear how much maneuver occurred today and yesterday, but it seems Azerbaijani TB2 are operating without great resistance right now and will likely continue to knock out Armenian artillery, armor, and OPs unless something changes. 384/
Regardless of how effective Armenian soldiers are, they will struggle to hold onto their defensive positions if they continue to face an effective aerial threat operating with impunity. So the question is, what will Armenia do about it? 385/
Armenia could send its newest air defenses, like the Tor-M2KM and Buk-M1-2, into Nagorno-Karabakh, leaving Armenia proper less well covered. This might work if they received guarantees that Russia would help defend Armenian air space from Turkey or maybe Azerbaijan. 386/
They could ask or demand emergency deliveries of EW or AD systems from Russia to address the new UCAV threat. Or they could escalate, and attempt to destroy the TB2s on the ground or their C2 infrastructure, possibly with Su-30SM or Iskander-M/Tochka-U ballistic missiles. 387/
But the status quo isn't working for Armenia even if it isn't currently losing much terrain, and Azerbaijan and Turkey seem to be happy to continue with the conflict. So Armenia, and possibly Russia, is going to have to make a decision to change the trajectory of the fight. 388/
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman released this video that purports to show the flight pattern of Turkish E-7T AEW&C and F-16 aircraft. Not sure if that Su-25 is supposed to be the Armenian aircraft that was shot down or an Azerbaijani Su-25. 389/
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Azerbaijani MoD video showing TB2 UCAV strikes on an Armenian convoy. Hard to tell whether those are trucks or MLRS. 390/
Another TB2 video that appears to show strikes on 5 BM-21 Grad MLRS and one or maybe 2 Ural-4320 trucks. It appears the previous video shows a resupply for this BM-21 Grad battery. 391/
Screenshots of 4 BM-21 Grad MLRS targeted by TB2 UCAVs. As a reminder, MAM-C/L munitions have fairly small warheads and need to be direct hits, and it is often difficult to tell how damaged these vehicles are after some of these near misses. 392/ ImageImageImageImage
Screenshots of the 5th BM-21 Grad MLRS from that video, a Ural-4320 truck, and a 3rd target, which is likely another BM-21 or truck. You can see that resupply convoy in the 3rd and 4th screenshots. 393/ ImageImageImageImage
Screenshots of TB2 strikes on that resupply convoy. 394/ ImageImageImageImage
Video of damage reportedly caused by Azerbaijani air strikes (presumably, MLRS too) on Martakert. 395/
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Video of the air raid siren from tonight in Stepanakert. 396/
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Armenia's losses from Sep 27-30 as of 2130 according to the Azerbaijani MoD:
-up to 200 tanks and armored vehicles
-228 artillery, MLRS, mortar pieces
-30 air defense systems
-6 command posts/OPs
-5 ammo dumps
-More than 110 vehicles
-1 S-300 system.
397/
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Azerbaijan continued its MLRS fire on Armenian positions during the night. 398/
According to the Guardian, "At least three Syrian opposition fighters have been killed in skirmishes in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh," including one who reportedly left for Azerbaijan on September 20. 399/
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Armenia posted photos of an Azerbaijani UAV that was reportedly shot down over night. Look's like an Israeli-made IAI Harop loitering munition. 400/
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New TB2 UCAV video from Azerbaijan with strikes on 4 D-30 122mm howitzers and a fifth target from long distance that is hard to ID. 401/
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Note, the Orbiter UAV that flies through the frame after one of the D-30 howitzers was struck. 402/ Image
The four D-30 122mm howitzers, presumably from a single battery. In the fourth screenshot, you can see damage from previous strikes. 403/ ImageImageImageImage
A look at the D-30 howitzer battery's position. These trench lines may need to be camouflaged better against aerial threats. 404/ ImageImageImage
Video from Azerbaijani reporters showing areas taken from Armenian forces. You can see a number of damaged or destroyed Ural-4320 trucks, GAZ-66, and other vehicles. They blur much of it but you can see a possibly damaged Azerbaijani BMP-3. 405/
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Screenshots of that Azerbaijani BMP-3. Can't tell if there is any damage but it is in a strange position if it is operational. Also possible that some of the damaged vehicles on the road belonged to Azerbaijan as well. 406/ ImageImageImageImage
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Screenshots of the damaged Ural-4320, GAZ-66, and other vehicles. Given that they blur out so much of the video, I wonder if that was to prevent people from ID'ing Azerbaijani positions or if some of the equipment was Azerbaijani and more identifiable. 408/ ImageImageImageImage
Armenia claims that Nagorno-Karabakh forces shot down an Azerbaijani helicopter, which crashed in Iran. 409/
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The Azerbaijani MoD claimed that Armenian forces from the Gorus region of Armenia fired rockets at the Jebrail-Fizuli area of Azerbaijan. 410/
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Armenian BM-21 Grad MLRS fire. 411/
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Here’s the unblurred version of that video from Azerbaijani media showing damaged Ural-4320, GAZ-66, BMP-3, and other vehicles. Not sure why they blurred so much of the other one. 412/
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As @COIN_TR1 pointed out, the above video might have been taken while passing through some of the destruction shown in this video posted earlier this week by Armenia showing Azerbaijani Ural-4320, IMR, and BMP-3. 413/ Image
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Another Smerch MLRS rocket that reportedly landed a 15 minute drive from Stepanakert. 416/
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Another video released by the Armenian MoD that shows trucks or buses on fire and a strike presumably on an Azerbaijani position. 417/
Armenian officials claimed that they have shot down 3 Azerbaijani aircraft, 2 helicopters, and 6 UAVs today. 418/
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From the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman. 419/ Image
Allegedly photos of the vehicle of two AFP journalists who were fired on in Nagorno-Karabakh. 420/
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Another video from Azerbaijani correspondents showing Armenian positions seized by Azerbaijani forces. The video shows at least one destroyed tank and Ural-4320 trucks. 421/
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Screenshots of the two tanks and destroyed Ural-4320 truck. It looks as though the destroyed tank was struck from above through its turret. 422/ ImageImageImageImage
The second half of that video showing Azerbaijani forces with captured Armenian trucks and equipment. 423/
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Video of what appears to be another Smerch MLRS rocket in Karabakh. 425/
Video of one of the aircraft shot down today, which looks like another An-2. 426/
Video of TB2 UCAVs striking two Armenian Osa air defense 9A33-series TELARs (both were hit yesterday or earlier) and a T-72 tank. 427/
Interestingly, the Clash Report Telegram Channel, which is clearly close to/run by the Turkish MoD, posted this footage first yesterday, which might be a sign that Turkey is controlling or coordinating the work of these TB2 UCAVs in Azerbaijan. 428/
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The Azerbaijani MoD’s response to the Armenian MoD’s claims about Azerbaijani aviation losses today. 429/
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Clash Report popped up in March during Turkey's UCAV offensive in Idlib and published most of the footage of those strikes, which were clearly provided by the Turkish MoD, and from Libya, too. Seems unlikely the Azerbaijani military would give them the footage first. 430/ ImageImageImage
Screenshots of those two Armenian Osa-AKM 9A33BM TELARs and the T-72 tank. Notably, now that Armenia's front-line air defense systems are significantly degraded, Azerbaijan could begin using its Mi-35M attack helicopters and Su-25 attack aircraft for CAS to support assaults. 431/ ImageImageImageImage
The Nagorno-Karabakh MoD claims that they shot down Su-25 attack aircraft and Mi-24 helicopters today. 432/
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Video reportedly of Armenian soldiers retaking an observation post. 433/
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The Armenian MoD posted a video showing an aircraft getting shot down (they said it was an Azerbaijani UAV). 434/
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Another video from the Armenian MoD showing Armenian indirect fire. 441/
Apparently, the video of the Azerbaijani loitering munition (likely a Harop) strike on that Armenian bus in Vardenis from September 29. 442/
The aftermath of that loitering munition strike from Tuesday. 443/ ImageImage
From the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman. 444/
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The Armenian MoD said that it’s S-300 air defense systems have shot aerial targets in the vicinity of Yerevan. This might be Armenia’s first use of the S-300 in combat. 445/
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Another video reportedly of Armenian S-300 air defenses shooting down UAVs over Abovyan tonight. 446/
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Another video of Armenian air defenses in action tonight. 447/
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Azerbaijan’s losses according to Nagorno-Karabakh officials as of 1800 today:
-1280 KIA 2700 WIA
-4 aircraft
-90 UAVs
-12 helicopters
-181 tanks and armored vehicles
-3 TOS-1A and 2 Smerch MLRS
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More photos of 300mm 9M55K rockets launched by Azerbaijani BM-30 Smerch MLRS. These photos are reportedly from Ivanyan. Presumably, the rocket that went through that roof didn't detonate. 452/
Photo: Асатур Есаянц
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Some of the Armenian weapons captured by Azerbaijani forces from an earlier video, including a Serbian Zastava M-93 sniper rifle, PKM, AK-103, and a Kord 6P50 12.7mm heavy machine gun. 454/
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More photos of captured Armenian weapons, including another Kord HMG, AK-103, Zastava M-93, SVD, Pulsar Apex thermal sight, and an RG-6 40mm grenade launcher. 455/
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Kornet ATGM and a damaged Ural-4320. 456/
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Photos of damaged vehicles from an Armenian convoy reportedly from September 27 (might be from the same video I posted yesterday). There were also photos of the bodies of several Armenian soldiers. 457/
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The Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Forces released a video showing the bodies of several Azerbaijani soldiers. The Военный Осведомитель Telegram Channel counted 32 bodies (I won’t post the video). It looks as though they were killed by small arms fire. 458/
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The Armenian MoD claims that they shot down another aircraft and UAV this morning and that fighting continues along the border in Nagorno-Karabakh. 459/ Image
The Armenian MoD posted a video reportedly of an Azerbaijani helicopter being shot down. There's no footage before the flames, so it is difficult to assess what was downed. 460/
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Nagorno-Karabakh announced that 157 of its soldiers have died so far in the fighting. 462/
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A new video from the Azerbaijani MoD of TB2 UCAV footage showing strikes on groups of soldiers, presumably from last night. It appears that TB2 are targeting troops now that much of Nagorno-Karabakh's air defense, artillery, and armor has been damaged.463/
The threat from TB2 is even greater at night as their thermal optics can pick up movement and vehicles quite easily. Soldiers also typically group together more at night time, particularly when they try to keep light discipline, leaving them very exposed to these attacks. 464/ ImageImageImageImage
Most of the strikes in that video appeared to give little warning to the soldiers, except for this one. It is possible that this strike didn't use a MAM TB2 munition but a loitering munition or artillery round instead. 465/
Another video of TB2 UCAV strikes on Armenian trucks and other positions. Pretty obvious that the TB2 are going through their target priority list after destroying many of the high-value air defense, artillery, and armor targets in Nagorno-Karabakh. 466/
Nagorno-Karabakh’s leader Arayik Harutyunyan visited the two French Le Monde journalists who were wounded yesterday. 467/
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The Azerbaijani MoD claims to have seized Madagiz and the high ground around it, and said they are having success in the direction of Jebrail-Fizuli. 469/
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Video from Russian journalists with Telekanal Dozhd who came under fire yesterday in the town of Martuni in Nagorno-Karabakh. That’s also where the two French journalists were wounded. 470/
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Armenia’s foreign ministry said on Friday it was ready to engage with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to re-establish a ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh. 471/
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This video published by Turkey's Haberturk was reportedly of an Armenian UAV being shot down by Azerbaijani air defenses. Instead, it is clearly an An-2 aircraft, presumably belonging to Azerbaijan. Was this an Azerbaijani friendly fire incident? 472/
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Another Russian news crew running for cover after coming under fire from Azerbaijani UAVs in Nagorno-Karabakh. No one was hurt. 473/
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Another video posted yesterday by a Turkish news crew reportedly showing Armenian loitering munitions getting shot down near an Azerbaijani mortar position. Based on Google Translate, I believe the article said 20 Armenian UAVs have been shot down. 474/
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Video showing shelling in Nagorno-Karabakh and a house in Hadrut that was reportedly struck by a Smerch MLRS rocket. 475/
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Another Azerbaijani MoD video showing TB2 UCAV strikes, presumably that occurred over night. It looks like 3 MT-LB with ZU-23-2 or other AD cannons, one T-72 tank, one truck, and one observation post were struck. 477/
Those 3 MT-LB with ZU-23-2 or other air defense cannons and one T-72 tank. 478/ ImageImageImageImage
Photos of an Azerbaijani T-90S tank that was apparently knocked out of action. 479/
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Strikes on Stepanakert. 480/
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Photo of another Azerbaijani T-90S tank that was apparently damaged in the fighting. 481/
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Warning graphic video. The Armenian MoD released a video showing Armenian artillery strikes on Azerbaijani positions and small arms fire on a group of Azerbaijani soldiers running from a destroyed tank. 482/
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First use of the Israeli-made LORA ballistic missile by Azerbaijan? 485/
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Not surprising they would choose to use the LORA for this target. It has a 10m CEP, unlike other long-range MLRS or Tochka-U, and it is large enough to take down a bridge, unlike a TB2 MAM munition. 486/
Here's a promotional video of the LORA during a test launch by IAI. 487/
Another TB2 UCAV video showing strikes on a Ural-4320 truck, soldiers in a trench line (possibly a mortar or artillery crew), and a vehicle on a road. 488/
Strikes on that Ural-4320 truck and soldiers in a trench line. MAM munitions are fairly small, and the strike against the soldiers appeared to hit the berm, so they likely all survived. 489/ ImageImageImageImage
Doesn't appear that Azerbaijan is looking to negotiate. 490/ Image
The Nagarno-Karabakh MoD released another video that started with recycled footage. The last part of the video shows what appears to be an MLRS salvo. 491/
Azerbaijan has claimed that Armenia fired ~10 Tochka-U missiles at the village of Sabirkend. 492/
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The Armenian MoD denies Azerbaijan's claims. 493/
Video of the damage from Azerbaijani strikes on Stepanakert. 494/
Another video of the aftermath of Azerbaijani strikes on Stepanakert. 495/
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Another TB2 UCAV Video released by the Azerbaijani MoD with strikes on a tent (possible command post) and three tanks. 497/
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TB2 UCAV strikes on Armenian soldiers and a BMP-1. 498/
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Video of Stepanakert being shelled tonight. 499/
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There’s another video posted by Armenian soldiers after they apparently seized (or took back) an observation post from Azerbaijani soldiers. There are approximately 10 bodies in the video. 501/
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Good ID by @EvstPalaiologos. The rifle does look like a JNG-90 sniper rifle. He’s also holding an optic, presumably a thermal or night vision scope, in his other hand. 502/ ImageImageImage
Armenian soldiers also came across an apparently damaged and abandoned Azerbaijani BTR-82A. It appears this was from the same location where one of the knocked out T-90S tanks was photographed as well. 503/
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One of the many disturbing things about the fighting this week in Nagorno-Karabakh is that videos and photos have been published almost daily of dozens of bodies of soldiers from both sides, but I haven't seen any videos or photos of prisoners. 504/
Armenia's losses according to the Azerbaijani MoD. 505/
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Lost Armor combined the Azerbajani TB2 strikes into a single 6 minute video they released earlier today (so it is missing a few). It started with recorded strikes on air defense systems (Osa-AKM and Strela-10). 506/
The compilation of TB2 strikes on Armenian tanks and artillery pieces. Pretty sure they missed some. 507/
Compilation of TB2 strikes on Armenian MLRS. 508/
Warning graphic video. Compilation of TB2 strikes on troop formations and MT-LB. 509/
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Video from the Azerbaijani MoD that appears to show TB2 strikes on 4 T-72 tanks, 2 BM-21 Grad MLRS, a group of troops in a defensive position, and an MT-LB from last night. 511/
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More strikes on Stepanakert. 513/
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Photo of a damaged building in Stepanakert, reportedly caused by Smerch MLRS. 514/
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Video from a Russian correspondent running for cover in Stepanakert after four explosions. 515/
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More photos of a damaged building in Stepanakert reportedly after a Smerch MLRS rocket strike. 516/
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Another video from Azerbaijan. Look's like TB2 strikes on 2 BMP-1 and one MT-LB. The explosion at the end is too big to be a TB2 munition, possibly an aerial bomb. 517/
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Photos reportedly of Armenian soldiers being taken prisoner by Azerbaijan. If this is true, I suspect they will publish the identities of these soldiers. 519/
Video of damage after shelling in Stepanakert. 520/
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Video of Armenian artillery and mortar strikes on Azerbaijani positions. 521/
The Azerbaijani MoD posted a video of musicians singing for soldiers, presumably near the front. They also gave the soldiers pamphlets with the obviously inflated figures for Armenian losses they have been publishing daily. 522/
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Nagorno-Karabakh officials published a video showing what appear to be Azerbaijani positions and vehicles on fire, including two tanks one of which was struck by an ATGM. 524/
Video of an Armenian ATGM strike on an Azerbaijani tank. 525/
Appears that video of Syrian fighters was in Azerbaijan. 526/
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Higher quality video of that Armenian ATGM strike on that Azerbaijani tank and a large explosion. 528/
Metin Gurcan reports that Azerbaijan is employing Turkish-made Kargu-2 loitering munitions in addition to TB2 UCAVs. 529/
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New video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing TB2 strikes on 5 Armenian T-72 tanks. 530/
Nagorno-Karabakh released the names of another 51 soldiers who were killed, bringing the death total to 202. A number of the soldiers were born in 2001 or 2002.
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Novaya Gazeta's sources also say that Syrians have gone to Azerbaijan. They report that between 700-1,000 Syrians have gone to Azerbaijan, primarily to guard pipelines. They reportedly fly from Gaziantep to Baku, flying through Georgian air space. 532/
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Novaya Gazeta's source says that Syrian fighters receive $1,800 a month, guaranteed Turkish citizenship (including for there families), and a $30k payment if they are killed. They also report that ethnic Armenians in Syria may be traveling to fight in Nagorno-Karabakh. 533/ Image
More graphic photos posted from the Armenian-side showing ~10 bodies of Azerbaijani soldiers. 534/
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The Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army posted a video earlier today showing soldiers near the front line, many of whom appear to be older reservists. The video was taken in the same location as the video from yesterday showing 32 Azerbaijani bodies. 535/
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The Armenian MoD's Artsrun Hovhannisyan accused Azerbaijan of using LAR-160 MLRS cluster munitions. 536/
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Video from Alexander Kots of damage to buildings in Stepanakert from Azerbaijani shelling. 537/
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The Armenian MoD has claimed that Azerbaijan conducted a "large-scale attack" today. 538/ Image
The Armenian MoD's Artsrun Hovhannisyan released this list of 243 Azerbaijani soldiers who have been killed in combat that they could confirm. He says the real figure is over 2,000, including mercenaries. 539/ Image
Semyon Pegov claims that a Nagorno-Karabakh sabotage group infiltrated behind Azerbaijani lines and destroyed a missile system that struck Stepanakert. He said it was an Israeli-made LORA. 540/
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I think that one of the take aways from this conflict is that Armenia's decision to procure Su-30SM fighters, which have played no role thus far, was a huge mistake. They could have procured Buk-M2, Pantsir-S1, or Tor-M2 batteries instead that could have countered the TB2. 544/
Ultimately, the Su-30SM fighters were a prestige procurement decision for these kind of videos. Nagorno-Karabakh's Osa-AKM and Strela-10 weren't able to stop the TB2, and Armenia has to keep its limited #'s of Buk-M1-2 and Tor-M2KM away from the FLOT. 545/
For those making fun of the Pantsir, the Pantsir-S1 that were destroyed in Libya and Syria had the older radars, and they still managed to shoot down plenty of TB2, enough to change Baku's calculus about how many they are willing to lose (they likely don't have many). 546/
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The Azerbaijani MoD posted a video of an Armenian position they seized. You can see two tanks and a destroyed truck. Notably, the positions aren't particularly well designed or fortified. 553/
Look's like two T-72A tanks and a burnt out Ural-4320. 554/ ImageImageImageImage
Surprising that Nagorno-Karabakh forces didn't reinforce these positions better over the years. 555/ ImageImageImage
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Here's the video of that strike (posted on September 30). Looks as though it may have only been a mobility kill. Something to keep in mind with these TB2 videos is that the MAM-L is a relatively small munition and requires a direct hit for a K-kill. 557/
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A response from Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. 559/ Image
Another video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing territory they seized, in this case near Talish where an Azerbaijani convoy was destroyed on September 28. 560/
This video was published by the Armenian MoD on September 27 showing Azerbaijani BMP-3 and an IMR-3 that was on fire in addition to the trucks. It appears both videos were shot from the same location of the same destroyed convoy. 561/
Armenian artillerymen firing an M-30 122mm howitzer at Azerbaijani positions. 562/
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Video of Armenian D-30 122mm howitzer crews. 564/
Video of Armenian soldiers coming under fire. 565/
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Another video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing a TB2 strike on a BM-21 Grad MLRS and what appears to be MLRS fire on Armenian positions at the end. 567/
Two videos of the two Azerbaijani T-90S tanks and BTR-82 that were knocked out together earlier this week. 568/
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Second part of that video showing the other T-90S and BTR-82A. 569/
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Video of Stepanakert under fire today. 572/
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Video of a fire caused by Azerbaijani shelling on Stepanakert. 576/
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New video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing loitering munitions, presumably Israeli-made Harop, striking 2 2S3 Akatsiya 152mm howitzers, 2 T-72 tanks, a BM-21 Grad MLRS, an armory/depot, and a KAMAZ truck. 577/
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Another video of the aftermath of shelling on Stepanakert. Appears that cluster munitions were used. 579/
Screenshots of the munitions used in the strike. 580/
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The Armenian MoD's Artsrun Hobhannisyan claimed that Azerbaijan was firing both Smerch and Polonez MLRS systems on Stepanakert. Ominously, he said "I call on the people of Azerbaijan to leave cities near military sites as soon as possible to avoid possible losses." 581/ Image
Video of Armenian strikes on the Azerbaijani city of Ganja. 582/
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More evidence of cluster munitions being employed against Stepanakert. 583/
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Another video that shows several bodies of Azerbaijani soldiers. It appears it is somewhere in the mountains. 585/
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Another video of intense shelling on Stepanakert. 586/
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That is a fairly large crater, larger than what a normal MLRS rocket explosion looks like. 587/ ImageImageImageImage
Photo of another Smerch MLRS rocket in Stepanakert. 588/
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Another video of the aftermath of shelling on Stepanakert. 589/
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Looks like an Israeli-made Orbiter-1K or Orbiter-2 UAV crashed in Nagorno-Karabakh. 590/
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Video of the aftermath of shelling on the Azerbaijani city of Ganja. 591/
Graphic video of the bodies of several Armenian soldiers. 592/
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The moment an Azerbaijani MLRS rocket lands in Stepanakert. 594/
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Doesn’t appear this rocket detonated. 595/ ImageImage
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Video from the Armenian MoD showing artillery strikes on Azerbaijani targets and a damaged or destroyed tank. 598/
Possibly an RPG strike on that Azerbaijani tank. 599/
Warning graphic. Video from the Armenian MoD showing an offensive by Azerbaijani forces in the Mataghis gorge showing artillery strikes and 3 ATGM on a platoon (+) force without sufficient dispersion. 600/
You can see why the front line hasn't moved much for years. This terrain is difficult for an attacking force as vehicles have to stay on the roads, the defender has good observation, and the defender can register the gorge for mortar and artillery fire. 601/ ImageImageImageImage
ATGM fire on a vehicle and groups of troops. Because of the canalizing terrain, once you destroy the lead vehicle on those roads, it is difficult for them to keep advancing. 602/ ImageImageImage
The Azerbaijani platoon-sized force was also moving in a tight file formation, instead of by squad or fire team with greater dispersion. That put them at greater risk of detection and more vulnerable to indirect fire. This unit may have sustained 20 + casualties. 603/ ImageImageImageImage
Video released by Nagorno-Karabakh defense forces that shows parts of the videos previously released by the Armenian MoD. You can see strikes on vehicles in that same gorge before the infantry force in the earlier video from the Armenian MoD. 604/
The Azerbaijani MoD released a video of a position they say they seized. 605/
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Azerbaijan also posted a video of Armenian mortars and Ural and KAMAZ trucks that they captured in the Jabrayil direction. 606/
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Video of damaged and destroyed buildings in Stepanakert after Azerbaijani shelling. 607/
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Nagorno-Karabakh D-20 howitzers. 608/
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Azerbaijani forces captured three Armenian tanks (2 T-72A and 1 T-72B). 609/
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Armenia fired Smerch MLRS rockets at the Azerbaijani city of Ganja today. 610/
Photos: Михаил Воскресенский
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From Armenian officials. 611/
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Photos of Stepanakert. The big take aways from today is that this conflict isn’t showing any signs of slowing down and both sides are launching MLRS strikes on populated areas. It will likely get worse. 612/
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Azerbaijani officials claim that Armenia launched Tochka ballistic missiles at Mingachevir. 167/ Image
These are Smerch rockets not Tochkas though (maybe both were launched). 168/
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Another video reportedly from the Mataghis gorge. Pretty clear that these Azerbaijani forces didn't expect to run into opposition here since they led with unarmored jeeps and Ural-4320 trucks. Instead they ran into Armenian ATGM crews. 170/
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The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman denied Azerbaijan's claim that Armenia targeted Khizi and Absheron. (Correcting the numbering on my tweets) 622/ Image
According to the Armenian MoD’s Artsrun Hovhannisyan, Azerbaijan sustained 400 KIA and 700 WIA today, which as usual seems inflated. 623/
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According to the Armenian MoD, these are Azerbaijan's losses as of 9:00 p.m. 624/ Image
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Armenian D-20 152mm howitzer crews in action. 626/
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Video of Azerbaijani indirect fire on Stepanakert. 629/
Azerbaijan released a video it claims shows Armenian forces launching rockets from within Armenian proper against Azerbaijan. 630/
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Another two rockets from a Smerch MLRS system in Stepanakert. 631/
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RIA Novosti reports that there were 322 Syrian mercenaries in Nagorno-Karabakh on October 1 with another 430 arriving over the weekend. They report that 93 Syrian mercenaries have been killed so far, and that 53 bodies have been returned to Syria. 632/
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Nagorno-Karabakh officials announced that another 21 soldiers have died. 635/
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The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman announced that a soldier shot down two Azerbaijani Su-25 aircraft with Igla MANPADS on October 1st. 636/
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Photos of a Smerch MLRS rocket from Artsrun Hovhannisyan. 637/
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The Azerbaijani MoD published a video after retaking the village of Talish. 638/
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The Russian PMC-linked RSOTM account strongly hinting that Russian private military contractors are on their way to fight in Nagorno-Karabakh. (h/t @Archer83Able) 640/
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If this is true, presumably we will see some evidence. 641/ Image
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Notably, Artsrun Hovhannisyan acknowledged that Azerbaijan has had some battlefield successes. 648/
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Video of the fighting yesterday between Armenia and Azerbaijan from across the border in Aslan Duz, Iran. 650/
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Additional photos of the Smerch MLRS rocket in Mingachevir. 651/
Photos: Михаил Воскресенский
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Video of an ATGM strike on an Azerbaijani tank. 652/
Azerbaijan displayed some of the captured Armenian equipment, including 9M111 Fagot ATGMs, D-30 122m howitzers, OG-7V rounds, and T-72 tanks. 653/
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Photos of the three captured tanks, 2 T-72B and 1 T-72AV. 654/
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Interestingly, Azerbaijan hasn't published any videos of Spike ATGMs being used during the recent fighting. 655/
First good news since the fighting began. 656/
The Azerbaijani MoD published a video of territory they say they have seized. 657/
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Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was in Nagorno-Karabakh today meeting with military leaders and NK President Arayik Harutyunyan. 659/
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Video of an Azerbaijani strike on Stepanakert. 660/
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NKR defense forces added another 21 names of soldiers killed during fighting with Azerbaijan. 661/
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Video from Azerbaijan of captured Armenian equipment (some of it was photographed and released yesterday), including a D-30 122mm battery without cover, Ural and KAMAZ trucks, a destroyed BMP-1, and UAZ-31514. 662/
Azerbaijan’s losses according to Armenia (yes, I know they’re inflated). 663/
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Sergey Naryshkin, the Director of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, said that hundreds or thousands of mercenaries from the Middle East, including from Jabhat al-Nusra, Firqat al-Hamza, and Sultan Murad, are fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh. 664/
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From the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman:
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Video of damage caused by Azerbaijani shelling in the town of Hadrut. 666/
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Artillery and MLRS fire is still occurring and each side says that fighting continues along the front, but, interestingly, over the past two days Azerbaijan hasn't released any TB2 videos and Armenia only released one video of fighting yesterday (likely from earlier). 668/
Not sure why both sides have largely stopped publishing combat footage over the past two days, especially since both sides say that plenty of fighting is continuing. Maybe it doesn't mean anything, but it is interesting to note. 669/
A number of people have noted that the poor weather today and yesterday could be a contributing factor. That would affect TB2 but the Armenian videos have been taken from the ground. Either way, Armenia would be smart to move in reinforcements while the weather is poor. 670/
Video reportedly of an Armenian strike on the Azerbaijani city of Ganja from yesterday. 671/
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Another video allegedly of an Armenian strike on the Azerbaijani city of Ganja yesterday. 672/
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New video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing an Armenian position and equipment they captured, including mortars, ATGMs, and Ural and KAMAZ trucks. 675/
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I've seen a few of these machine guns or other systems captured from Armenia designed to be operated from cover in a trench. Some World War I vibes. 676/ ImageImageImage
Some fairly old mortars at that position. 677/ ImageImageImage
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Hopefully someone can geolocate where this was launched. 679/
The NKR defense forces posted another video of bodies of Azerbaijani soldiers and an Azerbaijani flag on fire. The location looks similar to a previous video they posted. 680/
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Video of Stepanakert being shelled by Azerbaijan. 683/
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Statement from the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman in response to claims from Azerbaijani officials that Armenia targeted the BTC pipeline. 684/ Image
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It seems awfully suspicious that all of those cluster munitions would land so close together, and who would pick up live UXO to put them together for a photo if they landed farther apart? 686/ ImageImage
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From the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman. 688/
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Footage of Armenian strikes (presumably from MLRS) on the Azerbaijani city of Ganja from Monday. 689/
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The Azerbaijani MoD posted a video of Azerbaijani troops capturing the village of Shukurbayli in the Jabrayil region. 691/
The Armenian MoD posted this video they said is of Azerbajani forces in Jabrayil who were turned back by Armenian resistance. There is footage of something on fire, but it doesn't show the convoy under fire. 692/
But the footage once again indicates that Azerbaijani forces often aren't operating as though they are in a combat environment facing an indirect fire threat. Especially with so many unarmored trucks and vehicles near Armenian positions. 693/ ImageImageImageImage
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan posted these photos that appear to show Armenian indirect fire on the Azerbaijani convoy. Clearly, Armenian forward observers had good observation of the route. 694/
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This footage is allegedly of an Armenian strike on an Azerbaijani petroleum, oil, and lubricant (POL) depot. 695/
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Sounds like an Israeli-made Harop loitering munition overhead in Stepanakert. 696/
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The Armenian MoD posted a video they claim is of an Azerbaijani UAV that was shot down. 697/
Looks like a large UAV, maybe a Hermes 450? 698/ ImageImageImageImage
The Azerbaijani MoD released a video of loitering munitions striking two Armenian T-72 tanks. 699/
Screenshots of the two Armenian T-72 tanks targeted by Azerbaijani loitering munitions, possibly Harops. 700/ ImageImage
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Video from Semyon Pegov with the sound of Azerbaijani loitering munitions overhead. 702/
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Armenian losses according to the Azerbaijani MoD as of this morning:
-up to 250 tanks and armored vehicles
-up to 270 MLRS, artillery, and mortars
-up to 60 air defense systems
-11 CP/OPs
-8 ammo depots
-up to 150 vehicles
-1 S-300 air defense system
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The total Azerbaijani losses according to Armenia:
-127 UAVs
-16 helicopters
-17 aircraft
-416 tanks and armored vehicles
-4 MLRS
-3754 casualties (maybe KIA?)
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The Armenian MoD said they destroyed another Azerbaijani storage facility. 705/
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The Nagorno-Karabakh defense forces announced the names of another 40 soldiers who were killed in fighting with Azerbaijan. 707/
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Another video with Azerbaijani loitering munitions overhead. They seek to be out in force today over Stepanakert. 711/
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Azerbaijan released a video of Azerbaijani forces in the village of Shaybey in the Jabrayil region that they captured. 713/
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Putin's comments when asked about the fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh. 714/
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Photo of a woman outside her home in Stepanakert. 715/
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Video allegedly of two Azerbaijani T-72 tanks captured by Armenian forces (there are three tanks in the video though). 716/
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As a few of you pointed out, these look like Armenian tanks. 717/
The death total for Nagorno-Karabakh’s defense forces has reached 280 since the beginning of the conflict. 718/
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The additional 40 names announced today brings the death total for Armenian soldiers to 320 since fighting began last week. 720/
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Video of loitering munitions targeting an Armenian 2S3 howitzer and a tank. Interestingly, the Azerbaijani MoD didn't publish this video itself but instead gave it to a Turkish account. 721/
Video published by the NKR showing artillery and mortar strikes on Azerbaijani soldiers, as well as some footage, previously published, of strikes on a storage depot. 722/
Longer video of those Azerbaijani loitering munition strikes on an Armenian 2S3 howitzer and a tank. 723/
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Armenia released its third list of the 415 Azerbaijani soldiers who they say have been killed in the fighting and identified. They say the actual death total is 3454 including mercenaries. 725/
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New video from the Armenian MoD that appear to show artillery strikes on Azerbaijani targets, including a towed howitzer or anti-tank gun. 726/
Some photos were published a few days ago that purportedly showed captured Armenian soldiers, but Azerbaijan never gave us their identities, which was suspicious. Now it appears they were fake. 727/
That was an Azerbaijani MT-12 Rapira 100mm anti-tank gun in that video posted by the Armenian MoD. 728/ ImageImageImage
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Video allegedly of a retreating Armenian convoy that was captured by Azerbaijani forces. 730/
Another video of loitering munitions flying over Nagorno-Karabakh. 731/
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Azerbaijan posted another video of UAZ jeeps and trucks they claim were captured from Armenia. 732/
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Georgia's Ministry of Internal Affairs said that two UAVs crashed near the villages of Udabno and Sanavardo on October 7 at 6:35 and 6:45 p.m. (h/t @avsec_pro) 736/
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Claims from the Azerbaijani MoD. 737/
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Photos of Azerbaijani SOF reportedly from the town of Jabrayil. The second photo appears to be from the Armenian convoy that was apparently abandoned (a video was released earlier). Obviously, Azerbaijani SOF is playing a central role. 739/
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From the video with the three T-72 tanks there was an Armenian UAZ pickup technical with an HMG. 740/
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Photos of the damage from Azerbaijani MLRS fire in Stepanakert. 741/
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Video from the Armenian-side showing mortar or artillery fire on Azerbaijani troops retreating from a trench. I wonder if the Azerbaijanis seized that position from the Armenians, but couldn't hold it after coming under indirect fire. 742/
Claims from Armenian officials. 743/ ImageImage
Screenshots from that video of Armenian mortar fire on Azerbaijani soldiers. Competent units record the coordinates of their defensive positions and give them to indirect fire assets so that they can immediately shell them with first round effects if they are captured. 744/ ImageImageImageImage
Both Armenian and Azerbaijani forces posted photos of bodies from each other’s forces. In this screenshot, Armenian forces supposedly captured an Azerbaijani T-72 tank. 745/
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The Azerbaijani MoD posted a video showing a truck that brings musicians, leaflets, and a TV showing Azerbaijani TB2 strikes on Armenian targets to Azerbaijani soldiers. 746/
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Photos purportedly of one of the UAVs that crashed in Georgia, possibly an Israeli-made Azerbaijani Harop loitering munition. 748/
Video of that crashed UAV, possibly a Harop loitering munition. Generally not a great idea to pick those up. 749/
This means that aircraft or UAVs from the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan have crashed into both Georgia and Iran thus far. 750/
Video from where Azerbaijan says Armenia targeted the BTC pipeline with a Smerch rocket with cluster munitions. The fact that the cluster munitions are so close together (and none apparently detonated) with no sign of the rocket is quite suspicious. 751/
Video of Azerbaijani civilians who live near the front lines. Notably, they say that every home has a bomb shelter. 752/
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Azerbaijan published a UAV video showing massed artillery strikes (maybe from an artillery battalion?) on what they claim are Armenian headquarters, infrastructure, and ammunition depots from last night. 754/
Screenshots from the video. It appears 10 rounds land within seconds at the beginning of the video, possibly indicating two batteries firing together. 755/ ImageImageImageImage
The director of Armenia’s National Security Service was dismissed. 756/
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@ragipsoylu confirms the NYT report that showed at least 2 Turkish F-16 fighters at the Ganja Airport on October 3. He reports the Turkish F-16s never left after an exercise in July, but that they departed after the October 4th strikes on the city. 757/
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Though his sources say the Turkish F-16 fighters were left behind as a deterrent against Armenian strikes, and that they "haven't participated in Azerbaijani operations in the Karabakh region nor they have shot down an Armenian jet as Yerevan claimed" 758/
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Video from the Armenian MoD showing a strike on an Azerbaijani vehicle. It looks like an ATGM strike, but I couldn't spot the missile. 759/
As @CarlesHeredia suggested, this may have been an IED strike with a directional charge (possibly like an EFP) located in that berm. 760/
Beginning of the video that appears to show an Azerbaijani vehicle on fire. 761/
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Azerbaijan's military losses according to the Armenian MoD.
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During an interview from a few days ago, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev: “Thanks to advanced Turkish drones owned by the Azerbaijan military, our casualties on the front shrunk,” "These drones show Turkey’s strength. It also empowers us.” 764/
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More photos of the damage to the Ghazanchetsots Cathedral in Shusha from Azerbaijani shelling. 765/
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Video of the Ghazanchetsots Cathedral in Shusha which was damaged by Azerbaijani indirect fire. 768/
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Video just after the Azerbaijani strikes on the Ghazanchetsots Cathedral in Shusha. 769/
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Video of an Azerbaijani loitering munition striking what appears to be a BM-21 Grad MLRS. 770/
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Azerbaijani SPIKE-ER and SPIKE-MR/LR ATGM (though likely not combat footage). 773/
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From the Azerbaijani MoD.
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Video from the Azerbaijani MoD that appears to show 5 damaged/destroyed Armenian T-72 tanks and one BMP-2 and 5 captured Armenian T-72 tanks. 775/
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The wreckage from these photos looks a lot like an Israeli Harop loitering munition, which Azerbaijan has been employing. 777/
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New video from the Azerbaijani MoD. A couple notable things: 1) this is the 1st video showing a TB2 strike in 3 days 2) Armenia is beginning to use tarps to camouflage their vehicles from UAVs 3) the Armenian vehicles at the end were bunched together. 779/
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Not particularly convincing message from the Azerbaijani MoD. 781/
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Stepanakert is under fire again. 782/
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The Russian war correspondent Yuri Kotyonok is reportedly one of the three journalists wounded by the Azerbaijani shelling on the Cathedral in Shusha. He is reportedly fighting for his life. 784/
Screenshots from that Azerbaijani UAV footage showing a TB2 strike on a possible camouflaged artillery piece, and artillery strikes on Armenian positions and vehicles. 785/ ImageImageImageImage
Video after the second strike on the Ghazanchetsots Cathedral that wounded 10, including 3 journalists. You can see the hole in the roof is much larger than after the first strike. 786/
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The ANNA News crew say that fragments from one of the munitions used on the Cathedral in Shushi was a NATO-made aerial bomb. They are suggesting that Turkish F-16 fighters may have been involved. 787/
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Some of the witnesses are suggesting it was an aerial attack, though a 250 or 500lb bomb would do more damage than what I saw in the footage. 788/
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What appears to be two Azerbaijani loitering munitions overhead. 789/
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Video purportedly of an Armenian UAV shot down by Azerbaijan. 790/
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New TB2 UCAV video from the Azerbaijani MoD. The strikes are all on tanks or artillery in cover with camo nets. Azerbaijan appears to be going after specific parts of Armenia's defensive line with TB2 likely in preparation for an assault. 791/
We didn't see any TB2 footage over the past 2-3 days with strikes on Armenian targets. Now with better weather, they are out striking targets again, but Armenia has begun to camouflage its armor/arty from the air. Though that won't stop the TB2 when they are close enough. 792/ ImageImageImage
Presumably, the damage to this captured Armenian tank was caused by a TB2 UCAV MAM-L munition. 793/
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More photos of the aftermath of the shelling of the cathedral in Shushi. 794/
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Video posted yesterday that appears to show Azerbaijani loitering munitions striking two targets and a UAV recording footage of another strike. Hard to tell what was hit. 796/
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Video of Russian war correspondent Yuri Kotyonok being carried out of the cathedral in Shushi after he was wounded in the Azerbaijani strike. 797/
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The Clash Report Telegram channel compiled the various videos of TB2 and loitering munition strikes on Armenian targets from the beginning of the conflict until October 5. 798/
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There have been claims or evidence that munitions or aircraft from the fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan have now landed/crashed in Georgia, Iran, and now possibly Russia. 799/
The Clash Report Telegram channel is claiming that Azerbaijan’s TB2 destroyed an Armenian Tor AD system. Armenia received Tor-M2KM last December (on a wheeled KAMAZ-63501 chassis). 800/
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Russia's Tor-M2 variants are likely its best air defense system for countering UAVs, and they proved more effective than Pantsir-S systems at Khmeimim at countering UAVs. But Armenia doesn't have many and was likely holding them back from the FLOT, not wanting to risk them. 801/
More photos of the damage to the cathedral in Shushi/Shusha today. 802/
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More photos of the damage to the cathedral in Shushi/Shusha today. 803/
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Possibly the first POW taken so far in this conflict that has already killed hundreds on both sides. 804/
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin arrived in Yerevan today. 805/
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Another video of the damage to the cathedral in Shusha/Shushi. 806/
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Azerbaijani MoD TB2 UCAV footage of strikes (from MAM munitions and MLRS/arty) from last night on 7 armored vehicles, including what looks like at least 4 T-72 tanks, a BMP-2, and two other armored vehicles. Terrible dispersion by the Armenian unit. 808/
Looks like 7 T-72 tanks, ~6 BMPs, possibly a 2S1 Gvozdika howitzer, and trucks. It looked like there were 4 MAM-L/C strikes on T-72 tanks (not all K-kills), and an artillery or MLRS round at the end that possibly destroyed a BMP. You can't do this with an aerial threat. 809/ ImageImageImageImage
Not sure what vehicles were struck in these two screenshots, but the first looks similar to a TOS-1A MLRS. 810/
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Clash Report claims that an Osa air defense system was destroyed in this video. Likely the vehicle between the KAMAZ trucks. (H/t @WithinSyriaBlog) 811/
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Another video of TB2 UCAV strikes on Armenian targets last night, all appeared to be on soldiers in defensive positions. Seems that the TB2 are increasingly targeting specific defensive positions before Azerbaijani assaults rather than interdiction. 813/
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From the same area as yesterday's strikes in this video. 815/
Screenshots of the Armenian soldiers in defensive positions targeted by TB2 UCAV strikes last night. 816/
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The Azerbaijani MoD says that they destroyed 13 T-72 tanks, 2 IFVs, 4 BM-21 Grad MLRS, 2 2S3 Akatsiya howitzers, 3 D-30 howitzers, 2 radar systems, and, a large number of enemy vehicles so far today and last night. They also claim they captured 6 T-72.817/
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Azerbaijan destroyed another 3 Armenian BM-21 Grad MLRS with TB2 UCAVs. 819/
Video of Azerbaijani soldiers capturing Jabrayil. Notably, it looks like Azerbaijani SOF played a key role here. 820/
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Video of Azerbaijani soldiers repainting captured Armenian BMP-2 IFV and T-72 tanks. 821/
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev admitted that Turkish F-16 fighters are in Azerbaijan but he said, "F-16s are on the ground. They are not flying. They are not in anyway participating in any kind of battle." 822/
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Notably, during an interview from two days ago, Hikmet Hajiev, assistant to the President of Azerbaijan and the head of foreign policy affairs for the administration, denied that there were any F-16 fighters in Azerbaijan. 823/
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The Armenian MoD posted another video purportedly showing strikes on Azerbaijani vehicles. Hard to tell what happened in the video but clearly several trucks and vehicles are on fire. 826/
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Photo allegedly of an Azerbaijani UAV shot down over Stepanakert. 828/
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New video of TB2 UCAV strikes on what appear to be an Armenian P-18 radar and possibly a Repellent EW system.
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Video from the Azerbaijani MoD of the village of Sugovushan in Terter that they say they have captured. 830/
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A good look at the terrain in the region. 831/ ImageImageImageImage
Alexander Kots posted a photo in response to Azerbaijan’s claim that it has taken Hadrut. 832/
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And an NKR crew posted a video they say is from Hadrut. 833/
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There is a video taken from an Azerbaijani soldier showing ~20 bodies of Armenian soldiers on a road allegedly near Fuzuli. 835/
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Another TB2 video from the Azerbaijani MoD with strikes on what appear to be 4 Armenian T-72 tanks, one 2S1 Gvozdika howitzer, one BMP-2, one BM-21 Grad MLRS, and another vehicle that is hard to ID. 837/
The final T-72 tank in that video looks like it was from the same armored group from two previous TB2 UCAV videos. 838/ ImageImageImage
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A captured Armenian Kornet-E ATGM launcher. 842/
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Video of Azerbaijani soldiers in Talish after capturing the town. 843/
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This wouldn't be shocking if it turns out to be true. Armenia has accused Azerbaijan of using the Polonez MLRS system on multiple occasions during the fighting. Like Russia, Belarus has been willing to arm its CSTO-ally's adversary. 844/
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Video from yesterday of Azerbaijani troops near the front in Jabrayil with Mi-35M and Mi-17 helicopters; SandCat, Marauder and Matador MRAPs; Ural/KAMAZ trucks; and a captured MT-LB with Zastava M55 20mm cannons. 846/
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Another video of that captured MT-LB with Zastava M55 20mm cannons and Azerbaijani DANA 152mm self-propelled howitzers near the front. 847/
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Azerbaijani T-90S tanks and SandCat vehicles. 848/
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Another video showing Azerbaijani T-72 tanks, BMP-3 IFVs, and captured Armenian vehicles. 849/
t.me/bmpd_cast/4132
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The Armenian side released a video showing what appears to be two damaged Azerbaijani BTR-82 and a BMP-3. 851/
Turkey is squeezing out as much positive PR about their TB2 UCAVs in Nagorno-Karabakh that they can after doing the same in Idlib and Libya. 852/
t.me/ClashReport/746
Regarding the Azerbaijani MoD’s claim that it destroyed two S-300 air defense systems, here is a loitering munition targeting what appears to be an Armenian 36D6 radar commonly used as the acquisition radar for older S-300P-series AD systems. 853/
t.me/milinfolive/63…
And another Azerbaijani loitering munition struck one of the Armenian S-300's TELs. 854/
Another Azerbaijani loitering munition attack, likely from a Harop, on an Armenian T-72 tank. 855/
Azerbaijani loitering munition strike on an Armenian BM-21 Grad MLRS. Of note, many of these videos are likely from a few days ago. 856/
Another Azerbaijani loitering munition strike on an S-300 radar, reportedly an ST-68U/19Zh6 Tin Shield. 857/
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The Armenian MoD and the Azerbaijani MoD have both accused each other of violating the ceasefire that was supposed to begin at noon today. 858/
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The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman accused Azerbaijan of employing armed UAVs in Armenian proper. 859/ ImageImage
It doesn't appear that the cease fire is holding everywhere, but at least Stepanakert appears to be quiet for the moment. 860/
From the Turkish MoD. 861/
Azerbaijan claimed that Armenia launched a tactical ballistic missile at Mingachevir yesterday and that its air defenses shot the missile down. Today, they posted photos they say are from a 9K72 Elbrus Scud missile. 862/
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More photos from the remnants of what Azerbaijan says is missile from a 9K72 Elbrus Scud, clearly with cluster munitions. 863/
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A couple of videos emerged on Telegram yesterday showing an Armenian 9K72 Elbrus missile launch, though the date isn’t known (and the missile is far larger than what was shown in the photos). 864/
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It certainly appears that the Azerbaijani MoD has lied again about a purported Armenian MLRS or tactical ballistic missile launch against its territory. 865/
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Azerbaijan published a number of TB2 UCAV videos from last night. This video shows 4 MAM munition strikes on troops in trenches and defensive positions and one on a truck. 868/
The Azerbaijani MoD said it destroyed 13 tanks, 4 BM-21 Grad MLRS, 6 D-20 D-30 howitzers, 3 2S3 Akatsiya howitzers, 2 M55 Zastava cannons (likely on MT-LB), and 2 radar/EW systems. Clash Report claims they also destroyed 4 Osa and 2 Kub AD systems. 869/
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More photos of the munition used in the strike on the cathedral in Shusha/Shushi from the other day. 870/
Another video of TB2 UCAV strikes on 3 2S1 Gvozdika howitzers and a fourth that was already on fire exploding (it may have been one of the 3 that was struck by the TB2). The Az MoD may have incorrectly counted these as 3 2S3 Akatsiya. 871/
Another Azerbaijani MoD video showing TB2 UCAV strikes on 6 Armenian T-72 tanks. 872/
4 of the Armenian T-72 tanks targeted in that video. 873/ ImageImageImageImage
TB2 strikes on 4 D-20 howitzers and a fifth artillery piece (not sure what it is). 874/
The first screenshot is of that artillery piece (AA gun?) I can't ID, and the other three are of D-20 howitzers. 875/ ImageImageImageImage
Another Azerbaijani MoD video of TB2 UCAV strikes on two MT-LB with Zastava M55 20mm cannons and a third vehicle in cover with a tarp over the top. Azerbaijan claims these vehicles violated the cease fire. 876/
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Those two MT-LB with Zastava M55 20mm cannons and a third vehicle with camouflage. 877/ ImageImageImage
NKR announced that Armenia/NKR have lost 404 soldiers since the beginning of the conflict. 878/
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Another video of Azerbaijani TB2 UCAV strikes on 3 Armenian D-30 howitzers and troops in a trench. 880/
Ok, this does look like a Tochka ballistic missile. 881/
Graphic TB2 video with strikes on 2 BM-21 Grad MLRS, and 3 Ural-4320 trucks (and 2 D-20 howitzers). I believe this is the most TB2 videos Baku has released on a single day, and pretty obvious they maximized their strikes before the cease fire. 882/
2 of the BM-21 Grad MLRS and 2 Ural-4320 with D-20 howitzers. Some of the footage Azerbaijan has released today, including this video, has come after the cease fire went into effect. 883/ ImageImageImageImage
Another video with TB2 strikes on a 2K11 Krug air defense system's 1S32 fire control and command guidance radar, and 3 Osa-AKM 9A33BM TELARs. Notably, Clash Report reported these losses hours ago, before the Azerbaijani MoD said anything. 884/
Semyon Pegov in Hadrut near the fighting. 885/
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Alexander Kots is also in Hadrut. He claims that a group of 200 Azerbaijani SOF tried to infiltrate the city last night and Armenian forces are now pushing them back. 886/
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Semyon Pegov with an Armenian sniper team firing on targets outside of Hadrut. 887/
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Based on how incompetent these guys look, I wouldn't be surprised if they have taken heavy casualties in Nagorno-Karabakh. 888/
From the Azerbaijani MoD.
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Photo from Hadrut. 890/
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From the Armenian MoD's Artsrun Hovhannisyan. He says that the ceasefire has largely been maintained since noon, and he accused Azerbaijan of conducting offensive actions, including in Hadrut, right before the ceasefire came into effect. 892/ Image
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Photos from the shelling overnight in Ganja. 900/
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Footage from Ganja. 905/
This does look like a rocket from a Smerch MLRS. 906/
The Armenian MoD is claiming that Turkey and Israel continue to deliver combat UAVs to Azerbaijan, and that Turkey is commanding the TB2 UCAVs with AEW&C aircraft flying in Turkish airspace, as well as 6 F-16 fighters. 907/ ImageImage
The damage in Ganja is extensive. 908/
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Video of the destruction in Ganja from early this morning. 910/
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NKR announced the names of another 21 soldiers who were killed in the fighting, bringing the total to 429. 912/
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UAV footage of the strike on Ganja from last night. 913/
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Photos of the destruction in Ganja after last night's strike. 914/
Photos: Anadolu Agency
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Video of 7 TB2 UCAV strikes on Armenian/NKR trucks and soldiers in defensive positions. 915/
The Azerbaijani MoD claimed that last night they destroyed:
-5 T-72 tanks
-6 D-20 and D-30 howitzers
-5 trucks with ammunition
-11 vehicles
-3 BM-21 Grad MLRS
-5 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzers
-8 air defense systems
-1 radar station
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Another Azerbaijani MoD video showing TB2 strikes on 5 Armenian trucks. 917/
UAV footage of the destruction in Ganja after last night’s strike. 918/
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The Azerbaijani MoD released a video showing what they claim is one of their air defense systems shooting down an Armenian UAV in the direction of Mingachevir. 920/
Video of NKR snipers outside of Hadrut. 921/
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This does look like a Harop loitering munition striking this truck. 922/ ImageImage
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Video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing journalists in Talish. 924/
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Photos of a Nagorno-Karabakh sniper team with a SSG 08 sniper rifle, Schmidt and Bender scope, and Spartanets helmet. 925/
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Azerbaijan published a video from the town of Dashkasan in the Jabrayil region. 927/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-da…
CCTV footage of the moment of impact from that strike on Ganja last night. 928/
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Azerbaijani loitering munition strike on what looks like an Armenian 2P25 TEL for a 2K12 Kub air defense system. 929/
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NKR published a video that appears to show artillery strikes on two or three Azerbaijani armored vehicles. 930/
NKR also posted a video of what appears to be an Azerbaijani loitering munition that crashed or was shot down. 931/
Screenshots of that loitering munition or UAV. 932/ ImageImageImageImage
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Azerbaijan released a video it said is from the village of Horadiz village in the Fizuli region. The video starts with two T-72 tanks (one looks damaged not sure about the other) and several destroyed Ural and KAMAZ trucks. 935/
Screenshots of those T-72 tanks and Ural and KAMAZ trucks. 936/ ImageImageImageImage
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Video posted yesterday of Azerbaijani soldiers removing their dead while the ceasefire was apparently in effect. 939/
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According to Alexander Kots, this is Azerbaijani artillery fire on Hadrut. 940/
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More photos posted by the Artsun Hovhannisyan of that presumed Israeli loitering munition. 941/
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Azerbaijan posted a video from the town of Sugovushan in the Terter region. 942/
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Part two of that video in Sugovushan. 943/
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Video of Hadrut from the ANNA News crew who say that it is under the control of NKR forces. 945/
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The ANNA News crew found an MLRS rocket and cluster munition near Hadrut. 947/
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Azerbaijan said that they shot down 2 Armenian UAVs, 2 near Tovuz and one in Aghdam. The UAV pictured looks different that the X-55. 949/
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This might be an Armenian ARMY-55M UAV. 950/ ImageImage
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The Azerbaijani MoD posted a video from the town of Suleymanli in Jabrayil. 952/
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Another video of Azerbaijani An-2 aircraft being shot down. 953/
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NKR officials announced the names of another 51 soldiers who have died in the fighting, bringing the total to more than 480. 954/
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From the photos released yesterday by the Armenian MoD of Azerbaijani UAVs, these photos seem to show the wingtips of a Zarba loitering munition, which is a licensed produced version of the Orbiter 1K. 960/
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From an RT crew in Hadrut, which appears to be the center of the fighting over the past few days. 961/
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Second half of that video from Hadrut. 962/
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Photos of NKR soldiers and shelling in Hadrut. 966/
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Photos of an NKR sniper team outside of Hadrut. Note the EOTech and SSG 08. 967/
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Not sure about that position. 968/
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NKR has punished a second list today of soldiers who were killed in the fighting with 45 more names, bringing the total announced today to 96 and more than 525 since the beginning of the fighting. 967/
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The two lists published today by NKR with the names of 96 soldiers killed in the fighting. I'm not sure when all of these soldiers were killed, possibly during the day and night prior to the ceasefire, but it is the largest one day death total announced by NKR. 968/ ImageImage
As others have mentioned, this is possibly a reflection of both sides being able to recover bodies as part of the ceasefire. Of course, there are likely bodies that haven't been recovered yet and likely aren't being recorded on the casualty list yet either. 969/
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From the Armenian MoD’s Artsrun Hovhannisyan. 971/
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Video of the bodies of Azerbaijani soldiers somewhere in the mountains of Nagorno-Karabakh. 972/
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Infographic from Clash Report, which is clearly associated with the Turkish MoD, of Armenia/NKR’s losses from UCAVs and loitering munitions. Still no evidence of that Tor AD system though. 973/
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Very graphic video showing Azerbaijani soldiers with the bodies of more than 15 Armenian soldiers. 974/
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A man in Stepanakert hanging up his laundry next to the tail section of a Smerch rocket. 975/
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Armenia published another list of names of Azerbaijani soldiers they said have died and were able to ID, bringing the # to 517. They said they’re working on another 160 names. 978/
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Video of an Israeli-made Harop loitering munition that crashed in Iran near the city of Parsabad. 980/
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Photos of the Azerbaijani Harop loitering munition that crashed in Iran. 981/
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Another video of that Israeli-made IAI Harop loitering munition that crashed in Iran. Generally not a great idea to get that close to UXO. 982/
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Warning: graphic video. Footage of an Azerbaijani TB2 UCAV strikes on a group of Armenian/NKR soldiers. Notably, the Azerbaijani MoD didn’t post this video themselves, but it instead was leaked through social media (and didn’t blur the HUD info). 983/
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Another TB2 UCAV video showing a strike on an Armenian patrol from last night, reportedly near the town of Askeran. 984/
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NKR published the names of another 17 Armenian/NKR soldiers who have died in the fighting, bringing the total to more than 542. 985/
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Drone footage of the damaged Ghazanchetsots Cathedral in Shusha/Shushi. 986/
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The large hole in the roof of the cathedral in Shushi/Shusha. 987/ ImageImageImageImage
The Azerbaijani MoD claims that last night it destroyed:
-3 BM-21 Grad MLRS
-1 Tor-M2KM air defense system
-1 ZSU-23-4 Shilka SPAAG
-2 BMP-2 IFV
-3 2A36 Giatsint-B artillery pieces
-1 KS-19 anti-aircraft gun
-1 D-20 howitzer
-3 UAVs
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Video of Armenian/NKR strikes on a town in the Aghdam region of Azerbaijan. 989/
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The total losses of the Azerbaijani military according to Armenia. 990/
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Another video from the Armenian side of the bodies of Azerbaijani soldiers somewhere in the mountains. 991/
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NKR defense forces posted a video of a strike on an Azerbaijani tank, presumably from an ATGM. 992/
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Azerbaijan released a video from Hadrut where intense fighting has occurred over the past few days. Interestingly, they leaked it through social media accounts instead of from official MoD accounts. 993/
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Graphic video of the bodies of several Armenian/NKR soldiers in defensive positions in the Jabrayil region. 994/
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Longer video from the Azerbaijani MoD from the surroundings of Hadrut. Still not 100% clear who controls the town (and I haven't seen videos from the Russian correspondents from the town yet today either). 998/
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman shared a number of photos purportedly of Azerbaijani munitions used against Armenia, but these appear to be from a 9M33M3-series missile from an Osa air defense system, which could have been launched by Armenian forces. 999/
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Photos of other munitions reportedly launched by Azerbaijan against Armenia. 1000/
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Video purportedly of another Azerbaijani loitering munition strike on Armenian/NKR soldiers. 1001/
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Aftermath of Armenian/NKR shelling on towns in the Terter and Aghdam regions of Azerbaijan from RIA Novosti. 1002/
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Armenia says that it has ID’d 619 Azerbaijani soldiers who have been killed thus far in the fighting with another 60 names to be added soon. They say that the actual total is 4,900 including Syrian mercenaries. 1003/
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Video from an Armenian/NKR post in the mountains where fighting is occurring and snow is already on the ground. 1005/
NKR soldiers with an Igla-S MANPADS and a heavy machine gun in the mountains. 1006/ ImageImage
Second part of that video of NKR soldiers in the mountains. I cropped the video, but parts of it show bodies of Azerbaijani soldiers. Some of the fighting is legitimate mountain warfare under very difficult conditions. 1007/
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Screenshots from the NKR positions in the mountains. 1009/ ImageImageImageImage
Screenshots from NKR positions in the mountains. 1010/ ImageImageImageImage
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The Armenian MoD's Artsrun Hovhannisyan said that "today was one of the tensest days of fighting since the war broke out" particularly in the north. 1015/ Image
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The Azerbaijani MoD said that it destroyed Armenian tactical ballistic missiles (either Iskander, Tochka, or Elbrus) at 1 a.m. that were planning on firing on Azerbaijan. 1017/
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman, Shushan Stepanyan, confirmed that Azerbaijan struck Armenian military equipment in Armenia proper near Qaravachar though she denied that they were preparing to fire on Azerbaijan. 1018/
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The Azerbaijani MoD claimed that it destroyed another Armenian tactical ballistic missile system at 8:36 a.m. as well.
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Azerbaijan also claimed that last night it destroyed:
-5 T-72 tanks
-3 BM-21 Grad MLRS
-1 Osa-AKM air defense system
-1 BMP-2 IFV
-1 KS-19 anti-aircraft gun
-2 D-30 howitzers
-Several vehicles
1020/
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The Washington Post reports that earlier this month a refrigerated truck arrived at the Turkish-Syrian border with the bodies of 52 Syrian men who were killed in Nagorno-Karabakh. 1022/
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Two other things from WaPo's reporting: 1) many of the mercenaries being sent to Nagorno-Karabakh aren't hardened fighters 2) they're being sent to the front immediately with little, if any, training. 1023/
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So the Azerbaijani MoD specifies that it struck a Tochka-U tactical ballistic missile system on October 12, and the three struck this morning were 9K72 Elbrus Scud-B tactical ballistic missiles. 1024/
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I wonder if the Syrian mercenaries are primarily being sent to fight in northern NK which is more mountainous. We've seen Azerbaijani SOF in the south playing a key role in Azerbaijan's success there. Maybe the Syrians are being used to tie down Armenian forces elsewhere? 1025/ Image
NKR published a video of what they claim is an Azerbaijani sabotage group being repelled in SE Nagorno-Karabakh. Looks like mortar and artillery fire. 1026/
t.me/KarabakhRecord…
Video from the northern front of Nagorno-Karabakh NW of Talish from where ~60 Azerbaijani soldiers were ambushed and killed by NKR forces (I cut the video short to not show the bodies). I believe this ambush happened at least 10 days ago. 1027/
The NKR soldier in the video confirms that Azerbaijan seized his unit's command point on Mt. Arega, and said that they took 2 POWs. He said they ambushed the Azerbaijani unit from a distance of 8-10 meters on top of the small hill next to the trail. 1028/
If what this soldier says is true, it would be an indication of a lack of tactical proficiency in this Azerbaijani unit. Moving as a platoon, instead of by squad or fire team, and with minimal dispersion along a trail (a likely ambush site). 1029/
Russian TV host Vladimir Solovyov called Azerbaijan's strike on Armenia today a "direct challenge to Russia" and questioned the purpose of the CSTO "Armenia, which is our ally, is it under our protection or not?" 1030/
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BMPD believes the vehicles shown in the video from Azerbaijan are actually Armenian WM-80 MLRS launchers purchased from China. 1031/
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NKR published the names of another 23 NKR/Armenian soldiers who have been killed in the fighting, bringing the death total to at least 555. 1032/
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We haven’t seen as many videos of the fighting released by Armenia or Azerbaijan over the past couple of days, but clearly that isn’t a reflection that the fighting has slowed down. 1033/ Image
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Video from Sputnik Armenia of a hospital that was allegedly struck by Azerbaijan. 1036/
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Photos from the hospital in Martakert that was reportedly struck by two Azerbaijani rockets. 1037/
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@KofmanMichael and @nersmail1 have a very good overview of the fighting thus far in NK. Here is an interesting question: are the Russian Ground Forces' maneuver brigades and divisions better structured for modern warfare than Western equivalents?
warontherocks.com/2020/10/the-se… Image
One thing I would add about this point re: TB2 strikes≠ territorial gains. Destroying much of Armenia's tank/MLRS fleet won't guarantee success in assaulting Armenian defensive positions but it will likely prevent an Armenian strategic or operational counteroffensive. 1039/ Image
Not only has NKR/Armenia lost much of its armor and fires, but, as long as TB2 can sit overhead with impunity, Armenian forces can't mass sufficient forces to conduct anything but a small counterattack. Its forces would be vulnerable not only past the LOD but in an assembly area.
Video of Armenian/NKR artillery or mortar strikes on Azerbaijani troops. 1041/
The Azerbajani MoD claims it seized the villages of Garadaghli, Khatunbulag, and Garakollu in the Fuzuli district, as well as the villages of Bulutan, Malikjanli, Kamartuk, Taka, and Taghaser in the Khojavand district. 1042/
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1043/
The Azerbaijani MoD released a video of its soldiers in the town of Jabrayil. The first half of the video is a replay of earlier footage. 1044/
mod.gov.az/en/news/libera…
Two part video from Bars Media from Hadrut. 1045/
Second part of that video from Hadrut. 1046/
Azerbaijan posted a photo of an Armenian UAV they said was shot down in the Fizuli region of the front. 1047/
mod.gov.az/en/news/anothe… Image
A two-part video from Bars Media of an NKR defensive position in the north. Notably, many of the soldiers are quite old. 1048/
Second part of that video at an NKR defensive position in northern Nagorno-Karabakh. 1049/
Notably, the soldiers are a mix of locals and others from Armenia proper, and and being a soldier isn't their main job. 1050/ ImageImageImage
Sounds about right. 1051/ Image
As @666_mancer points out, the blades look like they're from a Spike NLOS ATGM (not sure about the motor), and look similar to a Spike NLOS missile Armenia recovered from the fighting in July (Armenia doesn't have any Spike missiles). 1052/
ImageImageImage
1053/
Very good terrain for an L-shaped ambush. According to the NKR soldiers in the video, an Azerbaijani platoon (+) size force was destroyed here. 1054/ Image
1055/
1056/
Semyon Pegov posted a photo allegedly of another aircraft shot down by Armenia (could be old). Looks like the wreckage of an An-2. 1057/
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A couple of disturbing videos were posted today. One appears to show an Armenian/NKR soldier hitting an Azerbaijani soldier in the head with the butt of his rifle and the other of two NKR soldiers who were captured in Hadrut being executed. 1058/
Sadly, this isn't a surprising development. Soldiers from both sides have posted a number of videos with the bodies of soldiers from the other side, sometimes abusing the bodies. It doesn't appear that leaders from either side have tried to stop this. 1059/
The Azerbaijani MoD denies that these are real (they look real to me). 1060/
The Azerbaijani MoD claims that last night they destroyed:
-2 T-72 tanks
-1 Tor-M2KM air defense system
-4 BM-21 Grad MLRS
-A D-20, D-30, and D-1 howitzer
-Several UAVs and vehicles
1061/
 mod.gov.az/en/news/the-en… Image
Azerbaijan has now claimed that they have destroyed 3 Tor-M2KM systems, but they haven't released any evidence thus far. Tor-M2KM is Armenia's best short range air defense system, and it is certainly capable of shooting down TB2 UCAVs and other UAVs. 1062/
Turkish arms exports to Azerbaijan jumped from $20.7 million in the first 9 months of 2019 to $123 in the first 9 months of 2020, with $77.1 million last month alone. Presumably, this was when the TB2 UCAVs arrived. 1063/
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Video from the ground of one of the Armenian 36D6 19Zh6 Tin Shield Radars that was struck by a Harop loitering munition. We previously saw the footage from the munition. 1064/
t.me/new_militaryco…
It appears the above video is from the same strike as from this loitering munition footage published on October 10th. 1065/
One thing to point out about this is that Azerbaijan signed a series of big contracts with Russia for ~$5 billion between 2008-2011. Most of those deliveries happened more than 4 years ago, and Baku has already received much of the arms that they wanted from Russia. 1066/ Image
Azerbaijan has been using these Russian arms in the current fighting, but arguably the UAVs and munitions from Israel and Turkey have played a bigger role. So Baku will likely continue to look more to Israel, Turkey, and other countries for arms imports rather than Russia. 1067/
Regarding the video of the execution of two NKR soldiers released today. 1068/ Image
Video of NKR artillery strikes on Azerbaijani soldiers in the open and in defensive lines from yesterday. Some of this footage was previously released. 1069/
1070/
Another video published by the NKR of artillery strikes on Azerbaijani troops. 1071/
Another NKR video showing artillery strikes on Azerbaijani soldiers. This video really shows the value of precision-guided munitions. Unguided artillery and mortar rounds are still effective, but you often won't have first round effects. 1072/
1073/
Video of an NKR soldier with several bodies of Azerbaijani soldiers. 1074/
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Video from a village in the Terter region of Azerbaijan that reportedly came under fire from Armenian/NKR forces. 1075/
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Another video from today of an alleged Armenian/NKR strike on a cemetery in the Terter region of Azerbaijan. 1076/
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The NKR announced the names of another 49 names of Armenian/NKR soldiers who have been killed in the fighting, bringing the total to more than 604. 1077/
t.me/SputnikArmenia… Image
Screenshots from a video published by an Azerbaijani Telegram channel that shows a damaged KAMAZ truck with several bodies of Armenian/NKR soldiers. 1078/
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I won't link to the photos, but they were posted by a Russian PMC-linked account (I haven't seen them posted by Azerbaijani accounts). I'm not sure about when they were taken, but there was a case in 2016 of an Armenian soldier who was beheaded. 1081/
azatutyun.am/a/27665737.html
This statement is regarding the two NKR soldiers who were executed on a video that was released earlier today. 1082/
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I suspect we'd see a new offensive in Idlib if Turkey went ahead with this. 1084/
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1086/
Clash Report claims that Azerbaijan shot down an Armenian X-55 UAV. 1087/
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Incredibly bleak report from the WSJ about the Syrians going to fight in Nagorno-Karabakh on behalf of Azerbaijan. 1088/
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1090/
Video of Azerbaijani forces in Hadrut. 1091/
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1092/
Good point by Ruslan Pukhov. 1093/
defensenews.com/global/europe/… Image
Bellingcat took a look at the alleged execution of the two Armenian soldiers in Hadrut. They conclude that the videos are likely genuine and show that the two Armenian soldiers detained in the first video were likely executed in the second. 1094/
bellingcat.com/news/rest-of-w… Image
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Photo confirms that Azerbaijan destroyed an Armenian 9K72 Elbrus tactical ballistic missile launcher and a UKS-400В-131 compressor station two nights ago. 1097/
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Video released from an Azerbaijani Telegram channel taken from the village of Mataghis. 1098/
t.me/military_az/804
The Azerbaijani MoD claimed that last night it destroyed:
-2 T-72 tanks,
-1 BM-21 Grad MLRS,
-5 D-30 howitzer,
-2 ZSU-23-4 Shilka SPAAG,
-8 vehicles
The "situation in the Aghdere-Aghdam and Fizuli-Hadrut directions of the front remained tense"
1099/
 mod.gov.az/en/news/the-si… Image
Video of Azerbaijani soldiers, Ural-4320 trucks, and BMP-2 in southern Nagorno-Karabakh. They drive past 3 damaged Armenian tanks and what was likely an NKR defensive line. I cut the video short before images of bodies. 1100/
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Screenshots of the three damaged Armenian/NKR tanks. 1101/ ImageImageImageImage
More screenshots from the video. 1102/ ImageImage
NKR published the names of another 29 soldiers who have died in the fighting, bringing the total to more than 633 since the fighting began. 1103/
t.me/SputnikArmenia… Image
Clash Report claims Azerbaijan destroyed another Armenian S-300 air defense system (presumably just part of it). 1104/
t.me/ClashReport/777 Image
Another bridge between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia struck by Azerbaijan, though it appears that neither was actually knocked out. 10m CEP isn't always good enough. 1105/
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1106/
The Russian PMC-linked RSOTM Telegram account posted the alleged identities of two Azerbaijani servicemen in the photo they published yesterday with a decapitated head. They say they are with the Azerbaijani 701st Motorized Rifle Brigade. 1107/ Image
Video from NKR showing artillery strikes on Azerbaijani soldiers in a defensive line. 1108/
Video published by the Armenian MoD showing artillery strikes on Azerbaijani positions. Not clear when this footage was shot. 1109/
Video of damage in the Aghdam region of Azerbaijan from NKR/Armenian shelling. 1110/
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Video from the Azerbaijani MoD of its forces in villages in the Khojavend region. 1111/
mod.gov.az/en/news/video-…
The Azerbaijani MoD published photos of what it claims are the remains of an Armenian tactical ballistic missile that landed in the Ordubad region of Azerbaijan. 1112/
mod.gov.az/en/news/armeni… ImageImageImageImage
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev claimed that Azerbaijan has captured the villages of Khirmanjig, Aghbulag, and Akhullu in the Khojavand district. 1113/
mod.gov.az/en/news/presid… Image
Graphic published by Armenia that shows the alleged daily death total for Azerbaijani forces. The numbers are inflated but it gives an interesting look at when the fighting was at its heaviest, including an uptick over the past two days. 1114/
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Stepanakert is under fire. 1115/
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Claims from the Armenian MoD's Artsrun Hovhannisyan. 1116/ Image
Photos of destroyed Armenian equipment. 1117/
t.me/military_az/826 ImageImageImageImage
The Azerbaijani MoD posted another video from Hadrut. 1118/
mod.gov.az/en/news/new-vi…
1119/
Another report on the Syrians fighting on behalf of Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabkah. 1120/
nybooks.com/daily/2020/10/… ImageImage
Kommersant reports that the current fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh was planned months ahead of time and driven by Turkey with promises of military, political, and technical support to Azerbaijan. 1121/
kommersant.ru/doc/4537733#id…
Kommersant reports that 600 Turkish servicemen are in Azerbaijan:
-200-man BTG
-50 instructors in Nakhchivan
-90 advisors in Baku
-120 flight personnel at the Gabala Airbase
-20 UAV operators at Dollyar Airbase
-50 instructors at Yevlakh Airport
-50 with the 4th Army Corps
1122/ Image
Their equipment includes 18 IFVs, one MLRS, 10 vehicles and up to 34 aircraft including 6 planes (F-16?), 8 helicopters, up to 20 UAVs. Kommersant reports that Turkish military transport flights to Azerbaijan (primarily through Georgia) increased sharply in Sep-Oct. 1123/ Image
These flights include a C-130 flight with troops and munitions on Sep 3, CN-235 on Sep 18, and A400M on Sep 25. On Sep 28-30, the Turkish Land Forces commander Ümit Dündar and Defense Minister Hulusi Akar were in Azerbaijan allegedly in command of the operation in Karabakh. 1124/
Further flights by Turkish or Azerbaijani aircraft flew back and forth on Sep 30, Oct 1, 3, 7, 9, and has sought permission for further flights through Georgia. 1125/
Kommersant reports that up to 1.3k Syrians and at least 150 Libyan fighters arrived in NK during the 1st week of October. The Libyans were sent to Jabrayil, whereas the Syrians were mainly sent to Terter. Turkey's National Intelligence Organization is managing the program. 1126/ Image
Kommersant reports that the Turkish SADAT PMC is conducting the recruiting in Syria. Syrians are reportedly offered $2k a month to fight in NK and told they will be there for 3-6 months. Any documents and cell phones are taken away before arriving in Azerbaijan. 1127/
The first group of Syrians were sent to Azerbaijan on Sep 22, and they reportedly receive a two-week training program beforehand from Turkish instructors. Another group of 1.5k Syrian fighters has been trained and is ready to be sent to NK if necessary. 1128/
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1130/
There was also an Azerbaijani strike on the village of Shosh tonight that reportedly killed one. 1131/
t.me/SputnikArmenia…
Another senseless night with civilian casualties. 1132/
1133/
Video of the aftermath of another Armenian/NKR strike on the Azerbaijani city of Ganja. 1134/
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The Armenian MoD claimed it shot down two UAVs in Armenian airspace. 1135/
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1136/
Location of previous strikes on Ganja. 1137/
Armenia released two more lists of names bringing the total number of names of Azerbaijani soldiers who have died in the fighting they say they have ID’d to 819. 1138/
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Air siren over Stepanakert. 1139/
Another video from Ganja. 1140/
Reportedly, video of the strike on Ganja. 1141/
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Photos of the destruction in Ganja tonight. 1142/
t.me/the_tagiev/1465 ImageImageImageImage
Hikmet Hajiyev, the Assistant of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan and Head of Foreign Policy Affairs for the Presidential Administration, claims that an 9K72 Elbrus Scub-B tactical ballistic missile was used. 1143/
1144/
Video of rescue crews searching through the rubble for survivors. 1145/
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1146/
1147/
Photos of the aftermath of last night’s strike on Ganja. 1148/
t.me/AzeSputnik/5164 ImageImageImageImage
Photo of a Matador MRAP after hitting an IED or mine. The crew was reportedly fine. 1149/
vk.com/military_az?w=… Image
UAV footage of the destruction in Ganja after last night’s strike, allegedly from an Elbrus Scud-B missile. 1150/
t.me/military_az/864
Footage presumably from a Harop loitering munition targeting an Armenian Smerch MLRS 9A52-2 launcher. 1151/
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The Armenian MoD’s spokeswomen, Shushan Stepanyan, published a satellite photo of alleged Azerbaijani military and defense targets in Ganja including an S-125 AD unit, defense industry factories, and the Ganja Airport where Turkish F-16 were located. 1152/
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Another video from one of the locations of Armenian/NKR strikes on Ganja from last night. 1153/
t.me/AzeSputnik/5185
1154/
Warning: graphic video. Azerbaijan has begun releasing TB2 UCAV videos again after last night's strikes on Ganja. This clip shows 20 strikes on NKR soldiers, defensive positions, trucks, and howitzers. Some of this footage could be old. 1155/
Normal defensive positions and the underpass of a bridge aren't sufficient against modern UCAVs. 1156/ ImageImageImageImage
Video of the destruction caused by Azerbaijani shelling on Stepanakert. 1157/
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Photos of the damage in Stepanakert. 1158/
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ANNA News video of the damage in Stepanakert after last night’s strikes. 1159/
t.me/anna_news/8789
Another Azerbaijani MoD video with 7 TB2 UCAV strikes on NKR/Armenian trucks and troops in cover. The single best thing Armenian/NKR troops can do to avoid these strikes is to not huddle together, even in cover. 1160/
NKR/Armenian troops would be better off sleeping in individual ranger graves with 15 + meters between them. TB2 operators likely wouldn't launch a MAM-L munition against an individual soldier, but they will against a group of soldiers in cover. 1161/ ImageImageImageImage
According to Azerbaijani, this video shows the destruction of an Armenian S-300PS system (hard to tell if they actually destroyed anything). Notably, the TB2 stayed far away, and apparently targeted it with a LORA or other long range munition). 1162/
1163/
One thing to keep in mind with the TB2 is that they have been shown destroying Pantsir, Osa, and Strela-10 short range systems, but longer range Buk or S-300 AD systems have been targeted by loitering munitions, F-16s, or long-range missiles in Idlib and NK. 1164/
Warning: graphic video. Another Azerbaijani MoD TB2 video with strikes on Armenian/NKR troops in defensive positions. 1165/
1166/
This clip shows how a TB2 MAM-L/C munition can adjust its final target location in flight. 1167/
This kind of persistent aerial threat puts a premium on small unit leadership. Troops simply can't bunch together like this, even in trenches. 1168/ ImageImageImageImage
1169/
Another video from the Azerbaijani MoD of TB2 UCAV strikes, presumably from last night. Soldiers have a habit of bunching together more at night than during the day, but as you can see, this just presents a larger thermal signature. 1170/
Screenshots of the NKR/Armenian soldiers at night. 1171/ ImageImageImageImage
Video of Azerbaijani BM-21 Grad MLRS, D-30 122mm howitzers, and Msta-S 152mm self-propelled howitzers. 1172/
TB2 video showing MLRS or missile strikes on what Azerbaijan claim is an Armenian/NKR fuel and ammunition depot. 1173/
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman claimed that it was actually a military hospital. 1174/
1175/
1176/
The Azerbaijani MoD claimed that yesterday and last night it destroyed/damaged:
-large number of military personnel
-7 T-72 tanks
-2 BM-21 Grad MLRS
-8 D-30 howitzers
-1 D-20 howitzer
-10 trucks with ammunition
-7 other vehicles
1177/
 mod.gov.az/en/news/the-tr… Image
One thing to point out is that Armenian/NKR soldiers, many of whom are conscripts or reservists, have faced a persistent and terrifying day/night aerial threat for 3 weeks, yet they aren't running away. Toughness and the will to fight are critical intangible factors of warfare.
Great news. Hopefully, this one holds. 1179/
A video from the Azerbaijani MoD from earlier today showing TB2 strikes on 9 BM-21 Grad MLRS and a final target (hard to tell what it was). Notably, the NKR/Armenian crews tried to provide camouflage on some of the BM-21. 1180/
From the leader of Nagorno-Karabakh. 1181/
Screenshots of Armenian/NKR BM-21 Grad MLRS, some of which are camouflaged. 1182/ ImageImageImageImage
Another TB2 videos showing strikes on what appears to be 2 MT-LB with Zastava M55 20mm cannons, 3 BMP-2, Osa-AKM 9A33BM TELAR, 3 T-72 tanks, 2 BM-21 Grad MLRS, and 1 ZSU-23-4 Shilka. 1183/
Screenshots of an MT-LB with Zastava M55 20mm cannons, Osa-AKM 9A33BM TELAR, a T-72 tank, and a ZSU-23-4 Shilka (I think). 1184/ ImageImageImageImage
The Azerbaijani MoD claims is has disabled an S-125 AD system, destroyed a tactical UAV, Su-25, and three Tor-M2KM AD systems over the past two days. 1185/
t.me/Azerbaijan_MOD… ImageImageImageImage
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1187/
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The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan says that the ceasefire is being broken. 1189/
1190/
1191/
The Azerbaijani MoD has accused Armenia of violating the ceasefire as well. 1192/
mod.gov.az/en/news/armeni… Image
The Azerbaijani MoD claimed that yesterday its forces destroyed:
- 2 S-300 missile guidance stations
-5 T-72 tanks
-3 BM-21 Grad MLRS
-2 Smerch MLRS
-1 D-20 howitzer
-1 KS-19 anti-aircraft gun
-6 other vehicles
1193/
 mod.gov.az/en/news/the-la… Image
TB2 video from the Azerbaijani MoD of what they claim are Armenian SOF retreating in the face of Azerbaijani tanks and BMP-2. Looks like they launched two ATGMs at the beginning of the video. 1194/
1195/
1196/
1197/
1198/
The Azerbaijani MoD published a video of arms and equipment they seized from Armenia/NKR. The first part shows an MT-LB with an M55 Zastava; D-20 howitzer; a variety of small arms; NSV HMG; and 9M111 Fagot, 9M113 Konkurs, and 9M115 Metis ATGMs. 1199/
Second part of that video with several Ural and KAMAZ trucks; 1 D-20, 2 D-30, and 3 D-1 howitzers; several T-72A/AV/B tanks; a BMP-1; and another MT-LB with an S-60 57mm anti-aircraft gun. 1200/
1201/
1202/
1203/
I count 4 D-1, 1 D-20, and 2 D-30 howitzers. 1204/ ImageImageImageImage
MT-LBs with S-60 57mm and M55 Zastava 20mm anti-aircraft cannons. 1205/ ImageImage
At least 5 T-72A/AV/B tanks. 1206/ ImageImageImageImage
NKR released a new list with the names of another 40 soldiers who have died in the fighting, bringing the total to more than 673.
t.me/SputnikArmenia… Image
1208/
Another video from the Azerbaijani MoD from a captured Armenian/NKR ammo depot with several Ural and KAMAZ trucks, small arms, AGS-17, RPG-7 + rounds, ATGM launchers, Kord HMG, tank main gun rounds, etc. 1209/
Zastava M93 Black Arrow 12.7mm sniper rifle. 1210/ Image
1211/
Two-part video of Azerbaijani soldiers in Fizuli city. 1212/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-az…
Screenshot of a Shturm-S ATGM carrier. 1213/ Image
Second part of that video of Azerbaijani soldiers in Fizuli. 1214/
At the end of the video you can see a group of soldiers who appear to be Azerbaijani SOF. One of the big questions going forward is how many casualties they have suffered, as they will likely be needed for any future assaults in more mountainous terrain. 1215/ ImageImage
The Armenian MoD released a video showing an ATGM strike on an Azerbaijani Plasan Sand Cat vehicle. 1216/
The video also shows an NKR/Armenian soldier firing an RPG or RPO at a target. 1217/
The beginning of the video shows something on fire. Hard to tell what it is. 1218/
1219/
Another TB2 UCAV video though not released by the Az MoD showing strikes on 6 BM-21 Grad MLRS, 5 T-72 tanks, 1 ZSU-23-4 Shilka, 1 BMP, 5 trucks, 1 towed howitzer, 1 MT-LB with AA gun, 1 BTR, and 2 other targets. Not sure if this is old footage. 1220/
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Not sure what the targets were in the first two screenshots. The 3rd and 4th screenshots show a T-72 tank and ZSU-23-4 Shilka. 1221/ ImageImageImageImage
1222/
NKR released footage of what they claim are Azerbaijani soldiers launching an offensive early this morning in violation of the ceasefire. 1223/
Screenshots from a video posted by an Azerbaijani YouTube page that shows 3-4 BM-21 Grad MLRS and several bodies of Armenian/NKR soldiers. 1224/
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Video of an NKR D-30 howitzer battery near Hadrut that was reportedly targeted on Oct 16. 1225/
t.me/new_militaryco…
From the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman:
1226/
The second list published today by NKR with 37 names of soldiers who have died in the fighting, bringing the total to at least 710. 1227/
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1228/
Video reportedly of Iranians shouting support to Azerbaijani soldiers on the other side of the Aras River. 1229/
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Photos of Iranians watching the fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan from across the border. 1230/
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More photos of Iranians watching the fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 1231/
t.me/new_militaryco… ImageImageImageImage
Screenshots from a video from an Azerbaijani defense Telegram channel that shows at least 2 D-20 howitzers and several bodies. 1232/
t.me/military_az/886 ImageImageImageImage
One of those presumed unmanned An-2 aircraft apparently crashed in Sabirabad. 1233/
t.me/military_arm/2…
Video reportedly of an Armenian or Azerbaijani UAV that flew over Iranian airspace and was shot down over Aslan Duz. 1234/
t.me/ImpNavigator/6…
Claims from the Armenian MoD's Artsrun Hovhannisyan. 1235/ Image
NKR published a video showing artillery strikes on an Azerbaijani convoy. The second half of the video has the same footage from another video released earlier today. 1236/
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1238/
1239/
The ANNA News crew made a video from the military hospital in Martakert that was struck by Azerbaijan a few days ago. Azerbaijan posted a video of the strike and claimed it was a fuel and ammo depot. 1240/
1241/
PBS also covered the military hospital in Martakert that was struck by Azerbaijani shelling. 1242/
Image of that man in Stepanakert taking his laundry from a drying rack a few meters from a Smerch MLRS rocket. 1243/
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And a look at how people are crossing the river after the main bridge was targeted by Azerbaijan. 1244/
Screenshots of the back up bridge and the primary bridge that was targeted by Azerbaijan. 1245/
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1246/
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that 13 villages in Jabrayil have been captured, and the Az MoD said they destroyed another:
-2 T-72 tanks
-2 BM-21 Grad MLRS
-1 D-30 and 1 D-20 howitzers
-11 vehicles
1247/
 mod.gov.az/en/news/the-la… ImageImage
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan also said that the ceasefire was violated overnight. 1248/ Image
The Armenian MoD's Shushan Stepanyan claimed that they destroyed 7 tanks, including a T-90S, and 5 armored personnel carriers yesterday. 1249/
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Video from the Armenian MoD of artillery/MLRS strikes on Azerbaijani forces. 1250/
NKR officials released a list with another 19 names of soldiers who have died in the fighting, bringing the total to at least 729 since the fighting began. 1251/
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The latest claims from the Armenian MoD of Azerbaijan’s losses. We haven’t seen evidence to support much of these claims. 1252/
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Video from Bars Media of an Armenian Igla-S MANPADS team. Notice how they camouflaged their truck from the air. 1253/
Second part of that video. As others have noted, MANPADS don't appear to have had much of an effect against TB2 or loitering munitions, but we still haven't seen Azerbaijani Mi-35M helicopters or Su-25 attack aircraft play a serious role thus far. 1254/
Screenshots from the video showing the Igla-S MANPADS and the camouflaged truck. Much of the fighting thus far has been in low-lying areas with less vegetation. The more mountainous terrain in NK with greater vegetation could negate some of Azerbaijan's advantages. 1255/ ImageImageImage
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Photos of damage in Stepanakert. Not sure when his happened but the Telegram channel that posted the photos believes it was caused by Polonez MLRS (haven’t seen any evidence yet). 1258/
t.me/military_arm/2… ImageImageImageImage
Interesting. The ANNA News crew published two photos that show a downed unmanned An-2 aircraft that was apparently carrying a 250 kg bomb that didn’t explode. 1259/
t.me/anna_news/8863 ImageImage
TB2 have clearly been effective but they only carry small munitions. Hitting a target with an accurate 250kg bomb is an entirely different matter, especially if we are talking about hardened defensive positions. 1260/
Azerbaijan posted another video of captured Armenian/NKR equipment from Jabrayil and Fizuli, including Ural trucks, UAZ Patriot, BRDM, Zastava M93 Black Arrow, Konkurs and Fagot ATGM, D-30 122mm howitzer rounds, 125mm tank rounds, and small arms. 1261/
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A service was held yesterday at the cathedral in Shusha/Shushi that was struck on October 8th. 1263/
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A martial arts club in Moscow pulled together money and purchased a Russian-made Dedal thermal weapon sight and mailed it to Armenia for soldiers fighting at the front. 1264/
t.me/military_arm/2… Image
Looks like a TB2 UCAV may have crashed or was shot down. That looks like the Canadian-made WESCAM CMX 15D turret used on a TB2. 1265/
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Armenia has claimed that it has shot down hundreds of Azerbaijani UAVs, but we've only seen evidence of the wreckage of a few loitering munitions or An-2. This is the first evidence that they have possibly shot down a TB2 UCAV. 1266/
1267/
NKR claims that it shot down 5 Azerbaijani UAVs today. 1268/
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1270/
Azerbaijani soldier with what appears to be an Iranian Nasr 12.7x108mm sniper rifle knock off of the Russian OSV-96.(H/t @AbraxasSpa) 1271/
One thing to point out about this possible TB2 shoot down is that Turkey has more than 100 of them, produces them and their munitions at a high rate, and they are relatively cheap. Turkey can sustain losing several of them without affecting their operational tempo. 1272/
New footage of Azerbaijani loitering munition (likely Harop) strikes on Armenian/NKR targets, much of which has been previously published. Shows strikes on Osa-AKM 9A33BM TELAR, 2 trucks, 2 MLRS, S-300 5P85S-series TEL?, and possibly a radar. 1273/
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The 2nd part shows strikes on a T-72 tank (old footage I believe), 2 BM-21 Grad MLRS, a group of soldiers, one target I couldn’t ID, and another S-300 36D6/ST-68U Tin Shield radar? 1274/
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The footage from that loitering munition strike on an NKR Osa-AKM 9A33BM TELAR. 1277/
Two more photos from the Armenian MoD of that TB2 WESCAM CMX 15D-SW turret. It is a little suspicious that we haven’t seen more of the wreckage and that the first photos published weren’t from the wreckage. 1278/
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Warning: graphic video. TB2 footage from Clash Report with strikes on Armenian/NKR positions, primarily troops in defensive positions or towed howitzers and their trucks. (H/t @Kyruer) 1279/
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Armenia posted photos of what they say is a second TB2 UCAV that was shot down (might be the same one from yesterday). Note the MAM-L munitions. 1230/
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Close up of the MAM-L munitions employed by the TB2 UCAV. 1231/ ImageImageImage
1232/
The Azerbaijani MoD posted a video from TB2 UCAVs showing what they claim are Armenian/NKR troops in Gubadli. Most of the strikes appear to come from MLRS with TB2 providing targeting support. 1233/
Azerbaijani MLRS fire on Armenian/NKR troops in the open in Gubadli. Footage taken by a TB2 UCAV. 1234/
1235/
I'm made this point before, but I'll say it again. TB2 won't seize territory, and they don't eliminate the high ground or other terrain features that make assaults difficult. But they do make it extremely difficult for the other side to counterattack, at day or night. 1236/
I don't know how far Azerbaijan will advance into Nagorno-Karabakh. The terrain suits the defender, and will negate some of the advantages of Azerbaijan's high-tech equipment. But it is doubtful that Armenia will be able to take back any of the terrain it has lost. 1237/
Video of another Azerbaijani Harop loitering munition that crashed in Iran. Not sure when the last time so much Israeli-made equipment crashed or exploded in Iran. 1238/
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Another video posted by an Armenian defense Telegram channel with the bodies of several Azerbaijani soldiers. Most of these videos have shown what appear to be Azerbaijani conventional soldiers, not SOF. 1241/
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The NKR published the names of another 43 soldiers who have died in the fighting, bringing the death total to at least 772 since the fighting began. 1243/
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Another video of TB2 strikes though not published by the Az MoD, including strikes on ~12 T-72 tanks, 3 BM-21 Grad MLRS, 3 towed howitzers, several trucks, a trailer (possibly from an S-300 unit), MT-LB and a few other camouflaged targets. 1244/
Second half of that video shows strikes on 15 targets including at least 5 T-72 tanks (including 1 on a trailer), at least 1 MT-LB, at least 2 BM-Grad MLRS, and an Osa TELAR at the end (pretty sure that was shown from a previous video). 1245/
Like like the same Osa-AKM 9A33BM TELAR from an earlier video with loitering munitions. Notably, it appears Azerbaijan/Turkey are using TB2 to ID and locate targets for loitering munitions, particularly air defenses. 1246/ ImageImageImageImage
The Azerbaijani MoD's claims from this morning. They say that yesterday and las night they destroyed:
-2 T-72 tanks
-4 BM-21 Grad MLRS
-1 D-30 howitzer
-5 vehicles
1247/
 mod.gov.az/en/news/the-la… Image
A big claim from the Armenian MoD's Artsrun Hovhannisyan. 1248/ Image
Here is another TB2 video with what appear to be MLRS, missile, or loitering munition strikes on a variety of targets. Doesn't look as though TB2 munitions were used in any of these strikes. 1249/
Another part of that video that shows TB2 strikes on at least 15 trucks, most of which were transporting towed howitzers. Most of this footage was previously published in that Clash Report video from earlier today. 1250/
Interestingly, both munitions here appear to be larger than anything the TB2 employs, but you can see the TB2 painting both targets, presumably for another precision-guided asset. 1251/ ImageImageImageImage
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Video of Azerbaijani soldiers after raising the Azerbaijani flag over Zangilan today. 1253/
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Earlier today, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced that Azerbaijani have captured 18 villages from Armenian/NKR forces. 1255/
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*24 villages and Zangilan. 1256/
Footage from ANNA News of that An-2 they say was shot down by an NKR Igla MANPADS and was carrying an aerial bomb (they say it was a FAB-250). 1257/
A lot has been made about Azerbaijan's modern loitering munitions and TB2 UCAVs, but they also have very old WWII era equipment in service, like these D-44 85mm guns. 1258/
As @TarMilus points out, this looks like a 2K12 Kub's 1S91 Straight Flush radar with its radar in a folded position. 1259/ ImageImageImage
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Video of Armenian soldiers firing Metis ATGMs. 1261/
NKR soldier with a 9K111 Fagot ATGM engaging Azerbaijani targets. Not sure when this happened. 1262/
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NKR T-72B tank that was knocked out by a Harop loitering munition. 1265/
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Azerbaijani MoD video of 2S7 Pion heavy artillery and MLRS firing on Armenian/NKR targets. 1266/
Video from the Azerbaijani MoD of its soldiers in the village of Chereken in the Jabrayil region. 1267/
mod.gov.az/en/news/libera…
Someone has a Smerch roof ornament. 1268/
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Video reportedly taken from the town of Bala Soltanli in Qubadli by Azerbaijani soldiers showing progress towards the Lachin corridor. 1271/
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NKR published the names of another 62 soldiers who have died in the fighting, bringing the death total to at least 834. 1272/
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Armenia published photos of an Azerbaijani DANA 152mm self-propelled howitzer battalion that they said was being used against its forces in Karabakh. We previously saw DANA howitzers near the front from Turkish TV. 1274/
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NKR still has some Osa air defense TELARs left. 1275/
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The Armenian MoD’s spokeswoman published a video of Armenian/NKR artillery strikes on Azerbaijani soldiers. Could be old footage. 1277/
t.me/ShushanStepany…
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DANA howitzers were spotted earlier this month near the front by Turkish TV. 1279/ Image
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Link to a video and photos posted by both sides with images of several NKR/Armenian and Azerbaijani bodies. 1281/
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Armenia’s most recent day-by day breakdown of Azerbaijan’s losses are down over the past week. 1282/
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Claims from the Armenian MoD's Artsrun Hovhannisyan. 1283/ Image
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Some Armenian accounts are alleging that this group of Azerbaijani soldiers who raised the flag over Zangilan were subsequently killed by Armenian/NKR forces. 1285/
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Video of two damaged Armenian/NKR BMP-2 IFVs captured by Azerbaijani forces. 1286/
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Armenian/NKR forces also captured an Azerbaijani BTR-82A. 1287/
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And a video of Armenian/NKR troops with an Azerbaijani BMP-2. 1288/
t.me/milinfolive/63…
Photo of NKR SOF. Note the EOTech sight. 1289/
vk.com/armenia_milita… Image
Video reportedly from today of an Azerbaijani soldier engaging Armenian/NKR targets with an Israeli CARDOM mortar system. 1290/
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ANNA News report on an NKR/Armenian Osa air defense system and Igla MANPADS crew. Honestly, feels as though they could do more to camouflage the Osa TELAR. Regardless, those crews have guts given the threat posed by TB2 and loitering munitions. 1292/
Screenshots of that Armenian/NKR Osa TELAR. 1293/ ImageImageImageImage
Video of captured Armenian/NKR equipment, including several BMP-1, T-72A/AV/B tanks, and a BTS-2 armored recovery vehicle. 1294/

mod.gov.az/en/news/anothe…
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Azerbaijan claims it shot down another 3 Armenian UAVs. 1296/
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Turkish Vice President Fuat Okaty said that Turkey would not hesitate to send soldiers and provide military support for Azerbaijan if they receive such a request from Baku. 1298/
reuters.com/article/instan…
We shouldn't forget that this conflict is being fought by many reservists and volunteers, not just professional soldiers. 1299/
nytimes.com/2020/10/21/wor… Image
A notable aspect of this conflict made possible by UAVs. 1300/
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This is a good NYT article exploring how Azerbaijanis and refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh feel about the fighting. 1301/
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Video taken from across the Iranian border of fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces. 1302/
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The developments over night according to the Armenian MoD's Shushan Stepanyan and the Azerbaijani MoD. 1306/
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Azerbaijan accused Armenia of launching 6 tactical ballistic missiles at Azerbaijan this morning and claimed its forces shot down a UAV. 1309/
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Video of a loitering munition strike reportedly on an Armenian S-125 air defense system (looks like a S-125's SNR-125 Low Blow Engagement Radar). 1310/
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Another video of an Azerbaijani loitering munition, presumably a Harop, striking an Armenian/NKR command post. 1312/
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A video is circulating on some Azerbaijani social media accounts that purportedly shows 8 Armenian/NKR soldiers who have been captured by Azerbaijan. 1313/
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Another clip from Azerbaijani loitering munitions/UAVs that appears to show Armenian/NKR trucks struck at the end. 1314/
This is allegedly video of an Azerbaijani MLRS (maybe a TOS-1A if it got this close) destroyed by an Armenian ATGM. It was just a matter of time until these videos made their way to Tiktok. 1315/
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Video of Azerbaijani soldiers reportedly advancing towards the Lachin Corridor with two T-72 tanks, a BMP-2, and either a Matador or Marauder MRAP that struck a mine or IED. These soldiers are clearly not SOF. 1316/
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NKR claims that it shot down a TB2 UCAV. You can't see the turret or body, so this could just be from the other TB2 that crashed the other day. It appears those are MAM-L munitions with the fins and warheads removed. 1317/
Comparison of the video just released and photos previously published from the TB2 that crashed a couple of days ago. Also screenshots of the presumed MAM-L munitions and motor. No way to tell if this is a new crash or just reuse of the components from the other crash. 1318/ ImageImageImageImage
Longer video from yesterday taken from across the Iranian border of fighting between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces. 1319/
t.me/new_militaryco…
The Azerbaijani company Iti Qovan has begun mass production of a new line of UAVs and loitering munitions, which appear to be license-build versions of the Israeli Orbiter-2M. 1320/
news.az/news/span-clas…
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NKR published the names of another 40 soldiers who have been killed in the fighting, bringing the death total to at least 874. 1321/
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More photos from that Bayraktar TB2 UCAV. 1322/
Warning: graphic video. Another video of Azerbaijani TB2 and loitering munition strikes. Much of the footage from the TB2 shows large munitions hitting the targets that were not launched by the TB2. Some footage was published earlier. 1323/
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The end of the video shows loitering munitions strikes on two targets that weren't previously published. The second looks like two trailers, possibly as part of an air defense C2 center. 1324/ ImageImageImage
A look at that strike on an NKR/Armenian defensive position (looks like it hit ammo crates). The explosion is far larger than what a MAM-L/C munition can create. Note that at least two TB2 were used in targeting that location, and the possible S-60 AA gun on the right. 1325/ ImageImageImageImage
Supposedly the crew of that Azerbaijani Marauder MRAP that struck a mine or IED. You can see a Plasan Sand Cat vehicle. Seems that many of the soldiers are older and likely reservists. 1326/
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Another video from that Azerbaijani unit with two T-72 tanks, a BMP-2, and that Marauder/Matador MRAP that struck a mine. 1327/
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Screenshots of the location of the two mines/IEDs and the mobility kill on the MRAP. 1328/ ImageImageImageImage
More photos of the TB2 wreckage. Still not 100% clear if this is from the one that crashed 2 days ago or a new TB2. 1329/
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Photos of the MAM-L munitions. 1330/
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More photos of that TB2. 1331/ ImageImageImageImage
As others have noted, the photos from the crash site appear to be from the same location photographed two days ago. Maybe they just mixed the photos together. Either way, until Armenia shows parts from two TB2 in the same photo, I'm going to assume only one has crashed. 1332/
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From the Armenian MoD's Artsrun Hovhannisyan. 1334/ Image
Video published by NKR showing artillery strikes on Azerbaijani positions. 1335/
Artillery VT Fuze? 1336/
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced that Azerbaijan has captured another 20 villages, and that Azerbaijan now has control of the entire Azerbaijani border with Iran. 1337/
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Video of NKR/Armenian soldiers fighting against Azerbaijani soldiers in the forest in Karabakh. This small unit fighting could be a sign of things to come as Azerbaijan advances into NK. 1338/
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Another video of Armenian/NKR soldiers fighting somewhere in the woods. There are two other videos from the same location with the bodies of Azerbaijani soldiers. 1341/
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Video of a TB2 UCAV strike on an Armenian/NKR BM-21 Grad MLRS from Clash Report. Not sure if this is old. 1342/
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NKR released the names of another 26 soldiers who have been killed in the fighting, bringing the death total to more than 900. 1343/
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At Valdai today, Putin said that Azerbaijan and Armenia are both equal partners of Russia and called the conflict a huge tragedy. 1344/
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Putin said that, according his figures, more than two thousand people have died on both sides of the conflict, and the combined death total is approaching five thousand. He noted that only 13k Soviet troops died in Afghanistan over 10 years. 1345/
kremlin.ru/events/preside…
It is very possible that Azerbaijani forces will reach the Lachin Corridor this weekend, the last main road that connects Armenia to Karabakh (the M11 is in MLRS range). That means civilians won't be able to flee and a humanitarian crisis could occur.1346/
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To state the obvious, this is the time for the international community to get involved. I doubt Armenians/NKR residents will surrender, but their position will become precarious and the fighting will increasingly shift to population centers, leading to more civilian deaths. 1348/
Baku has the upper hand/military advantage. Armenians view this as an existential fight and haven't relented despite the constant aerial threat. Neither side is likely to give up, which means this conflict will likely drag on, but with civilians increasingly caught in the middle.
From an Armenian account. 1350/
An Iranian official said that, during the first 24 days of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, 68 missiles (presumably including rockets and UAVs) landed in Iran. He said that 71 missiles landed in Iran just today. 1351/
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The status of the fighting this morning according to the Azerbaijani and Armenian MoDs. 1352/
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Video taken by Armenian/NKR soldiers showing artillery strikes on Azerbaijani positions. 1355/
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Photos of Azerbaijani Matador MRAPs in Baku after being damaged in the fighting, presumably from mines or IEDs. 1357/
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Video of TB2 strikes on an Armenian/NKR KS-19 anti-aircraft gun, D-30 howitzer, 2 BM-21 Grad MLRS, and defensive positions. 1358/
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Another Azerbaijani TB2 Video showing MAM-L and artillery/MLRS strikes on Armenian/NKR positions. 1359/
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Looks like MLRS strikes possibly with DPICM cluster munitions. 1360/
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NKR published the names of another 27 soldiers who have died in the fighting, bringing the total to more than 927. 1361/
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TB2 UCAV footage of strikes on NKR defensive positions and D-20 howitzers. The munitions are larger than what a TB2 can carry, possibly an aerial bomb, MLRS PGM, or other missile. Could be a sign that MAM-L/C aren’t sufficient against bunkers. 1366/
t.me/Azerbaijan_MOD…
A look at one of those larger munitions used against an Armenian defensive position. Maybe a Polonez MLRS missile or aerial bomb? 1367/ ImageImageImageImage
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TB2 footage from Friday showing strikes on 2 KS-19 AA guns, a D-30 howitzer, 3 trucks with howitzers, and NKR defensive positions. 1370/
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Azerbaijan says that it downed an Armenian BZEZ loitering munition with EW systems. 1371/
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Photos of the wreckage of one TB2 UCAV. Still waiting for proof that more than one has been downed. 1372/
Video of the aftermath of shelling on Stepanakert from Thursday night. 1373/
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Video of NKR fire crews putting out the fire in Stepanakert from two nights ago. 1374/
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Some interesting points about Iran’s view of the conflict. 1375/
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Correction: it appears this Smerch rocket is actually in Azerbaijan. 1378/
The Armenian MoD posted this video of what it claims (as well as the guy in the video) is an Azerbaijani TOS-1A MLRS on fire. 1379/
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Video of an NKR strike on an Azerbaijani position from yesterday. 1382/
Another video published yesterday of NKR strikes on Azerbaijani positions. 1383/
Video of NKR fire crews putting out a fire after shelling on Stepanakert from two nights ago. 1384/
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CCTV footage of an Azerbaijani strike on Stepanakert on October 23. 1385/
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Video of NKR artillery strikes on Azerbaijani positions. 1386/
NKR published another 36 names of soldiers who have died in the fighting, bringing the total to at least 963. 1387/
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NKR published photos of what they say is a UAV that was shot down. Possibly another An-2. 1388/
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Azerbaijani MoD TB2 Video with strikes on 4 T-72 tanks, a KS-19 AA gun, and two trucks with howitzers. 1390/
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Azerbaijani MoD TB2 UCAV video with strikes on two T-72 tanks, 2 D-30 howitzers, a D-20 howitzer, an UAZ-469, and a Giatsint-B 152mm artillery piece. 1391/
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Video posted yesterday of seven Azerbaijani BTR-70 vehicles captured by Armenian/NKR forces. 1392/
t.me/milinfolive/64…
The first video of Spike NLOS ATGM strikes from the current fighting on 2 T-72, 2 MLRS (at least 1 BM-21 Grad), 2 BMP, 2 D-30 + another howitzer, and 2 warehouses. 1393/
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Video of Israeli-made Spike NLOS ATGM striking two Armenian/NKR trucks and a fortified position. 1394/
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This is from an earlier TB2 video from the Azerbaijani MoD. You can see the munition appear to turn around before striking the group of troops. Possibly a smaller quad copter loitering munition like the Turkish Kargu. 1395/
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Video from two days ago showing Azerbaijani troops with Israeli Soltam CARDOM 120mm mortars. 1396/
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Secretary of State Pompeo announcing the ceasefire earlier today, and the accusations from Armenia and Azerbaijan after the ceasefire was supposed to take effect. 1397/ ImageImageImageImage
Video of Azerbaijani T-107 107mm MLRS. 1398/
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Armenia released photos of a loitering munition it says it shot down, which appears to be a newer version of the Israeli Elbit SkyStriker loitering munition. 1399/
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Two more photos of that Azerbaijani UAV that Armenia said it shot down, presumably an Israeli SkyStriker loitering munition. 1400/
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Video published by the Armenian MoD of an Armenian loitering munition reportedly being employed in the fighting. 1402/
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Screenshots of the Armenian loitering munition. 1403/ ImageImageImage
The Azerbaijani and NKR MoDs have accused each other of breaking the ceasefire. 1404/
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From the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman. 1405/ Image
Photo of an Azerbaijani KAMZ truck captured by Armenian/NKR forces. 1406/
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NKR released the names of another 11 soldiers killed in the fighting, bringing the total to more than 974. 1407/
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Video from yesterday of Armenian/NKR artillery crews operating a D-30 howitzer. 1408/
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Photos of an Azerbaijani Harop loitering munition targeting an Armenian S-300PS 5P85S TEL and the aftermath of the strike on that TEL and a ST-68UM radar. 1409/
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Video from the Azerbaijani MoD of its forces in villages captured in the Gubaldy region. 1410/
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Videos from the Azerbaijani MoD of captured villages in the Jabrayil and Zangilan regions. 1411/
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Videos from the Azerbaijani MoD of captured villages in the Jabrayil and Zangilan regions. 1412/
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Allegedly, an Armenian quad copter UAV. 1413/
Azerbaijani TB2 Video published yesterday showing strikes on 2 D-20 howitzers, 2 BM-21 Grad MLRS, one T-72, and defensive positions and truck. It looks like a possible LORA strike and MLRS at the end. 1414/
t.me/Azerbaijan_MOD…
TB2 footage of that MLRS strike on Armenian/NKR soldiers that was published yesterday. 1415/
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Possibly a LORA or long-range MLRS missile. Almost certainly not a munition launched by a TB2. 1417/ ImageImageImageImage
Another TB2 video published yesterday showing strikes on a Giatsint-B artillery piece, 6 D-30 howitzers, 2 2S1 Gvozdika howitzers, trucks, and ammo crates. 1418/
t.me/Azerbaijan_MOD…
Azerbaijan released a video of its forces in the village of Pardar in the Gubadli region. 1419/
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An Azerbaijani Smerch MLRS rocket with a mobility kill of an Armenian ZiL-131 truck. 1420/
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Another downed or crashed Azerbaijani Harop loitering munition. 1421/
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Another 3 thermal optics were sent from Russia to Armenia, presumably purchased by members of the Armenian diaspora in Russia. 1423/
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@TarMilus ID'd them as Chinese-made HikVision DS-2TS01-06XF/W hand-held thermal monocular cameras. 1424/
hikvision.com/en/products/Th… ImageImageImage
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The video of that close call for a Euro News crew and an NKR 9M111/9M113 ATGM near Madagiz/Sugovushan. 1426/
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The first part of that Euro News report from Madagiz/Sugovushan. 1427/
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TB2 video released by Azerbaijani sources (but not the Az MoD) that reportedly killed Lieutenant General Jalel Harutyunyan who was relieved as the NKR Minister of Defense earlier today allegedly because of wounds he received during the fighting. 1429/
t.me/milinfolive/64…
Pretty clear that this was a deliberate targeting, since the Ural and KAMAZ trucks are better military targets than a normal UAZ-469. I assume Turkey has been providing significant intelligence and targeting support to Azerbaijan in this conflict. 1430/ ImageImage
This is part of the Turkish playbook we've seen in Idlib, Libya, and in Azerbaijan. In each case Turkey supported a proxy that provided most of the ground force with ISR/intel support to improve the proxy's targeting (e.g. for MLRS) and TB2 (sometimes also F-16) strikes. 1431/
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In response to this, how do we explain Azerbaijan's much greater success this month than during the fighting in July or 2016? Baku had most of the same weapons (Spike NLOS, Harop, MLRS, etc.) before, so the obvious explanatory variable is Turkey. 1434/
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We reached a grim milestone today at the one month anniversary of the beginning of the fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh. NKR published the names of another 35 NKR/Armenian soldiers who have died in the conflict, bringing the total to more than 1,000. 1437/
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The Azerbaijani MoD said that it destroyed a T-72 tank, 4 D-30 and 3 D-20 howitzers, an Osa-AKM air defense system, a BM-21 Grad MLRS, a radar station, and 6 vehicles yesterday and last night. 1448/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-la… Image
Photo of the UAZ that was allegedly carrying NKR Defense Minister Jalel Harutyunyan. This apparently occurred yesterday and NKR says that he was wounded but not killed. 1449/
t.me/milinfolive/64… ImageImage
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Terrible video that shows Armenian/NKR soldiers answering the phone of a deceased Azerbaijani soldier. The soldier tells the woman who called the phone that they were Armenian. Obviously, a terrible way to find out your son or father has been killed. 1451/
t.me/milinfolive/64…
1452/
Video posted yesterday by the Azerbaijani MoD of its forces in the city of Gubadli. 1453/
t.me/Azerbaijan_MOD…
Video of Azerbaijani soldiers abusing a captured Armenian/NKR soldier published yesterday by an Azerbaijani Telegram channel. 1454/
t.me/military_az/10…
Video from the Armenian MoD's Artsrun Hovhannisyan with the map of the current fighting and territorial gains by Azerbaijan. 1455/
This is the map of Azerbaijan's territorial gains and the location of the current fighting according to the Armenian MoD. 1456/ ImageImage
1457/
From the Armenian MoD's Artsrun Hovhannisyan. 1458/ Image
Comparison of the territorial gains by Azerbaijan from October 25 to today, according to the Armenian MoD. 1459/
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1462/
Video of an Armenian position coming under fire from Azerbaijani forces. 1463/
t.me/military_arm/2…
A wedding was held at the cathedral in Shusha/Shushi over the weekend, which was damaged earlier this month. 1464/
t.me/military_arm/2… ImageImageImageImage
Better photo of that Armenian loitering munition that was published yesterday. 1465/
t.me/haywave/914 Image
ANNA News claims that Azerbaijan was flying loitering munitions over the Armenian city of Goris yesterday. 1466/
t.me/anna_news/9051 Image
This was a pretty clear signal from Russia to Turkey yesterday regarding Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia might choose to escalate further in Idlib, possibly with another SAA ground assault, if Turkey/Azerbaijan cross Russian red lines in the conflict. 1467/
Photos published last week of Armenian weapons seized by Azerbaijan, including two Kord HMGs, SPG-9, 2 RPG-7, 2 PKM, Konkurs ATGM 9P135 launcher, and Aspar Arms M93 sniper rifle (based on the Zastava Black Arrow). 1468/
t.me/milinfolive/64… ImageImage
Video of Azerbaijani shelling of Armenian positions in the SE direction. 1469/
t.me/reartsakh/5579
1470/
An Armenian account published this video with the message “our patience isn’t limitless” at the end. We still haven’t seen Armenia use it’s Iskander missile systems (though this video is of Russian Iskander-M at the Kapustin Yar training area). 1471/
t.me/reartsakh/5597
The footage the Armenians published is from August and involved a test with Russian Iskander-M and Tornado-S MLRS operating together. 1472/
CCTV footage of the strike on the Azerbaijani city of Barda today. 1473/
t.me/Caucasian_bure…
This video appeared online that shows two Armenian 9K72 Elbrus Scud missiles being launched, allegedly at Azerbaijani targets (some have said Barda). But Azerbaijani officials previously blamed Smerch MLRS rockets for the strike on Barda today. 1474/
t.me/ImpNavigator/7…
So I'm not sure when the above video was taken, but here is Azerbaijan's Hikmet Hajiyev blaming today's Armenian strike on Barda on Smerch MLRS rockets. 1475/
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1477/
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Photos of Turkish Kargu loitering munitions in service with Azerbaijan. 1480/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImage
Photo of another Israeli-made Azerbaijani Sky Striker loitering munition that crashed or was downed by Armenian/NKR forces (EW?). 1481/
vk.com/milinfolive?z=… Image
1482/
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Video of the aftermath of an Armenian strike on the Azerbaijani city of Barda that reportedly killed more than 20. 1484/
t.me/AzeSputnik/5799
Another video from the Azerbaijani city of Barda after today’s strike. 1485/
t.me/AzeSputnik/5778
The Azerbaijan National Agency for Mine Action (ANAMA) claims that Smerch MLRS 9M525 rockets with cluster munitions were fired on Barda. 1486/
t.me/AzeSputnik/5762 ImageImage
1487/
Video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing Armenian/NKR equipment captured by Azerbaijani forces in the Gubadli direction, including a BMP-1, BTS-2, T-72, UAZ-469, UAZ Patriot, AGS-17, RG-6 40mm grenade launcher, and small arms. 1488/
mod.gov.az/en/news/video-…
1489/
Second half of that video of captured Armenian/NKR equipment posted by the Azerbaijani MoD, including a Russian Orsis T-5000 sniper rifle. 1490/
One of the issues for Armenian/NKR forces is that it isn't clear that they built solid secondary and tertiary defensive positions in case they were pushed back from the FLOT. Most of these positions look fairly shallow and were likely dug recently. 1491/ ImageImageImage
CCTV footage from today’s Armenian strike on Barda, reportedly by Smerch MLRS rockets. 1492/
t.me/Xebervar/11798
Another video from NKR showing what appears to be two more Azerbaijani An-2 unmanned aircraft being shot down. 1493/
1494/
Video posted yesterday of NKR strikes on Azerbaijani positions. 1495/
Another video posted yesterday of an NKR ATGM strikes on an Azerbaijani vehicle. Not sure what they were doing, but that group of pick up trucks are not in a great tactical formation when within ATGM and artillery range. 1496/
Video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing strikes on 12 D-20 and D-30 howitzers (not all were destroyed), a T-72 tank, Ural-4320 howitzer tractor, radio antenna?, and a final strike on a defensive position that appeared to not be a MAM munition. 1497/
mod.gov.az/en/news/units-…
These two strikes were clearly not from TB2 munitions, but instead a larger missile or aerial bomb. 1498/ ImageImageImageImage
Warning: graphic video. TB2 video showing several strikes on Armenian/NKR soldiers. Can't emphasize enough how important dispersion is even when in defensive positions. 1499/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-en…
Warning: graphic video. Another video showing TB2 strikes on Armenian/NKR soldiers who were possibly on a patrol. 1500/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-en…
1501/
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Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that the Azerbaijan has captured 13 villages in the Zangilan, Fuzuli, Jabrayil and Gubadli districts. The Az MoD also blamed the strike on Barda today on Armenian Smerch MLRS rockets. 1505/
mod.gov.az/en/news/presid…
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-en… ImageImage
Azerbaijan also released another video of Israeli Spike NLOS ATGM strikes on 3 MT-LB, 2 T-72 tanks, a BMP-1, a truck, and a bunker. 1506/
t.me/milinfolive/64…
Another Azerbaijani TB2 video (not published by the Az MoD) showing strikes on 6 D-30 and 5 D-20 howitzers, a truck, and possibly a BRDM-2. 1507/
t.me/milinfolive/64…
More TB2 strikes on 7 artillery pieces (including D-20 and Giatsint-B), a BM-21, an Osa TELAR, a power station, a trailer, several tanks and trucks, and MLRS strikes on a warehouse. 1508/
t.me/milinfolive/64…
1509/
1510/
ANNA News video showing Azerbaijani strikes on Stepanakert today. 1511/
t.me/anna_news/9137
Photos of damage today in Stepanakert. ANNA News claims that 4 aerial bombs were dropped today and that they had parachutes (indicative of certain types of Russian aerial bombs). 1512/
t.me/anna_news/9150 ImageImageImageImage
Video of the damage caused by today’s strikes on Stepanakert. 1513/
t.me/anna_news/9162
1514/
1515/
1516/
1517/
Good thread. 1518/
1519/
I'll wait to see evidence of this. 1520/ Image
Second half of that video shot from an NKR UAV (probably COTS) on Oct 28 reportedly showing Azerbaijani soldiers retreating under mortar fire on a hill north of the town of Khtsaberd. 1521/
t.me/military_arm/2…
1522/
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Azerbaijani MoD video of Azerbaijani forces in the villages of Giyasli and Sariyatag in Gubadli. 1526/
mod.gov.az/en/news/video-…
Azerbaijani MoD video of Azerbaijani forces in the villages of Giyasli and Sariyatag in Gubadli. 1526/
mod.gov.az/en/news/video-…
Photos of the munitions fired at Barda yesterday including Smerch MLRS rockets. 1527/
t.me/AzeSputnik/5824 ImageImageImageImage
The Azerbaijani MoD claims that last night it destroyed:
-2 T-72 tanks
-2 BM-21 Grad MLRS
-14 howitzers
-several strongholds
-6 vehicles
1528/
 mod.gov.az/en/news/the-la… Image
NKR released the names of another 51 soldiers who died in the fighting, bringing the total to 1,119. The list included the names of 5 reservists. 1529/
ru.armeniasputnik.am/society/202010… ImageImage
1530/
AP report published yesterday showing Stepanakert under heavy shelling. 1531/
instagram.com/tv/CG3B2HwhzM9…
1532/
1533/
Warning: graphic video. Azerbaijani MoD TB2 video showing strikes on 4 D-20 and 1 D-30 howitzers, vehicles, and troops in cover. The strikes at the end appear to be from artillery. 1534/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-en…
Joe Biden's statement on Karabakh implores the Trump administration "to stop the flow of military equipment to Azerbaijan, and call on Turkey and Russia to stop fueling the conflict with the supply of weapons and, in the case of Turkey, mercenaries." 1535/
joebiden.com/2020/10/28/nag… Image
Second TB2 video published by the Azerbaijani MoD today showing strikes on 2 2S1 Gvozdika howitzers, a P-18 radar, an UAZ-469, troops in defensive positions, and it appears MLRS strikes at the end. 1536/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-az…
Screenshots from the end of the video showing what appear to be MLRS impacts. 1537/ ImageImage
Volunteers, including members of the Armenian National Philharmonic Orchestra, at Yerevan's Opera House making camouflage netting for soldiers on the front lines. 1538/
rferl.org/a/volunteers-c… ImageImageImageImage
An ANNA News video showing damage from Azerbaijani strikes on Shusha/Shushi. 1539/
t.me/anna_news/9177
Second video made by the ANNA News crew in Shusha/Shushi when they come under fire, allegedly from Azerbaijani Smerch MLRS fire. They took cover in the cathedral that was damaged in an earlier strike. 1540/
t.me/anna_news/9185
Amnesty International assesses that Smerch MLRS 9M55 rockets with 9N235 cluster munitions were used in yesterday's strike on Barda. Amnesty International previously identified M095 DPICM cluster munitions used by Azerbaijan against Stepanakert. 1541/
amnesty.org/en/latest/news… ImageImageImageImage
1542/
Another Azerbaijani MoD video showing TB2 strikes on NKR troops in defensive positions, as well as a BM-21 Grad MLRS, a truck with a howitzer, and a power station or communications system. At the end you can see cluster munitions and a missile strike.1543/
Azerbaijani TB2 video showing cluster munitions being employed against NKR/Armenian forces with a large missile or rocket at the end, possibly an Israeli EXTRA extended-range artillery missile. 1544/
NKR claims this was a strike on an Azerbaijani Smerch MLRS system by Armenian/NKR artillery, though it is difficult to tell what it is. 1545/
1546/
Putin: "our position is absolutely open with regard to the possibility of handing over these 5 plus 2 [surrounding] districts to Azerbaijan, alongside the provision of a specific regime for the Karabakh zone and the securing of a link with Armenia” 1547/
ft.com/content/357e2b… Image
Video posted by the Armenian side showing a destroyed T-72 tank, BMP-2 (possibly a second), and BTR-82A as well as another T-72 tank and MT-LB that don't appear to be damaged. 1548/
1549/
1550/
Tor-M1 air defense systems are also likely Iran's best system for shooting down rockets and loitering munitions that keep landing in Iran from Armenian and Azerbaijani forces. 1551/
1552/
1553/
Video of Armenian/NKR troops on a hill top with an HMG launching an ATGM at an Azerbaijani vehicle. (h/t @khalfaguliyev) 1554/
facebook.com/HayocAzgayinBa…
1555/
1556/
The locations of the current fighting and Azerbaijani territorial gains according to the Armenian MoD. 1557/
t.me/military_arm/2…
The current status of the fighting according to the Armenian MoD. 1558/
t.me/military_arm/2… Image
This is reportedly footage of the town of Aknakhpyur that came under fire from Azerbaijani forces. 1559/
t.me/reartsakh/5706
Others are saying that this isn't a result of shelling but of Azerbaijani forces lighting buildings on fire after capturing the town. 1560/
Another thing to point out from that video of Armenian/NKR soldiers on that hill top is that they aren't in prepared fighting positions. Maybe they are just temporarily occupying that hill, but you wouldn't want to fight a defensive battle without any entrenchment. 1561/ ImageImage
Undated video showing Armenian/NKR soldiers shooting at Azerbaijani soldiers in the mountains, presumably somewhere in northern Karabakh. 1562/
t.me/new_militaryco…
1563/
The Azerbaijani MoD says that the fighting is primarily occurring in Aghdere, Khojavend, and Gubadli, and claimed its forces yesterday destroyed:
-2 Su-25
-3 T-72
-1 IFV
-2 Smerch MLRS
-1 BM-21 Grad MLRS
-10 howitzers
-2 Gvozdikas
-1 Osa
-1 P-18
1564/
 mod.gov.az/en/news/the-la… Image
1565/
Azerbaijan published a video this morning showing TB2 strikes on two Smerch MLRS TELs. Azerbaijan says it struck these two TELs at 15:18 on October 29. 1566/
Azerbaijan released a second video showing strikes on 2 Armenian Smerch MLRS launchers. The first part shows a TB2 tracking a launcher firing on Azerbaijani positions and following it back to its camouflaged cold position. 1567/
Second half of that video showing TB2 MAM strikes on two Armenian Smerch MLRS launchers. Azerbaijan says they were struck today at 12:55 and 14:18 this afternoon. 1568/
Azerbaijani MoD Video showing Russian Msta-S 152mm self-propelled howitzers. 1569/
t.me/Azerbaijan_MOD…
TB2 video showing the aftermath of a strike on an Armenian/NKR rocket-artillery depot on the night of October 29. Not clear what munition was used, but it could have been from MLRS or other ground-launched missiles. 1570/
mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-…
Undated video that appears to show Azerbaijani forces using white phosphorus munitions over a wooded area in Karabakh. 1571/
t.me/bagramyan26/22…
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1574/
Warning: graphic video. Another video of TB2 strikes on a P-18 radar, a BMP, a T-72, an Ural-4320, BM-21 Grad MLRS, 6 howitzers (likely all D-20), possibly a MT-LB, and infantry in defensive positions. 1575/
Another example of NKR defensive positions being targeted by non-TB2 munitions, possibly an aerial bomb or ground-launched missile. Might be an indication that MAM-C/L rounds aren't always sufficient against troops in cover. 1576/
Another TB2 strike on an Armenian/NKR Osa-AK/AKM 9A33BM2/3 TELAR that reportedly occurred today at 20:25 in the Aghdam direction. 1577/
1578/
1579/
I didn't post this at the time, but last weekend a video emerged on social media allegedly showing the execution of an Armenian/NKR soldier by Azerbaijani soldiers. 1580/
1581/
1582/
1583/
Possible locations where incendiary MLRS munitions are being employed. 1584/
Video from the Armenian MoD reportedly showing an Azerbaijani SOF unit being engaged at night, apparently with grenades. 1585/
1586/
1587/
Video of those Azerbaijani soldiers northwest of Hadrut. 1588/
t.me/zamanaze/728
1589/
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1591/
AP video from Stepanakert showing Azerbaijani strikes outside of the city as Azerbaijani forces advance towards Shusha/Shushi. 1592/
instagram.com/tv/CG-siYzhVyJ…
Video of a funeral for NKR soldiers. 1593/
instagram.com/tv/CG-siYzhVyJ…
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The Военный Осведомитель guys think this was actually a R-405 radio relay station, not a P-18 radar. 1598/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… Image
1599/
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev claimed that Azerbaijan captured 9 villages in the Jabrayil, Zangilan and Gubadli districts. 1600/
mod.gov.az/en/news/presid… Image
1601/
Interview with a former resident of Hadrut about the execution of the two ethnic Armenian men that was spread across social media two weeks ago, both of whom she knew. 1602/
rferl.org/a/nagorno-kara… Image
1603/
Looking at this map, I wonder if Armenia will start pulling troops away from the northern and eastern FLOT to reinforce the southern area around Shusha/Shushi and the Lachin corridor, which are strategically critical and more difficult to defend. 1604/
1605/
And there we have it. 1606/
Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan's letter to President Putin requests immediate consultations to determine the type of Russian support to ensure Armenia's security. It mentions "Azerbaijani-Turkish military aggression" and "foreign armed terrorists" 1607
mfa.am/ru/press-relea… Image
Interestingly, Pashinyan requests assistance through the bilateral Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance 1997 treaty's Article 2 (below), not the CSTO's collective security Article 4. Article 2 does not automatically require military assistance, just consultations. 1608/ Image
Russia has generally regarded Karabakh as outside of its CSTO and bilateral security guarantees to Armenia, even though targets within Armenia proper have been struck over the past month (as well as in July), including a bus in Vardenis. 1609/
docs.cntd.ru/document/83064… Image
The question is whether Pashinyan was already told by Russian officials that such a request would be welcomed, possibly as a signal to Turkey/Az, or if he is publicly announcing this without Moscow's support. Either way, I don't expect a significant Russian mil response. 1610/
The Az MoD said this morning that the fighting is primarily occurring in the Aghdere, Khojavend and Gubadli directions, and that its forces yesterday destroyed:
-2 T-72
-3 IFV
-2 Smerch MLRS
-1 BM-21 Grad MLRS
-1 Osa
-12 howitzers
-1 EW system
1611/
 mod.gov.az/en/news/the-la… Image
Another video showing some kind of incendiary munition being employed by Azerbaijan in Karabakh. This looks more like WP than the previous video, but I think that’s just because we’re seeing more of the fire (probably not enough smoke for WP). 1612/
t.me/ShushanStepany…
Warning: graphic video. Azerbaijani MoD TB2 video showing strikes on a BM-21 Grad MLRS, 3 T-72 tanks, 3 Ural and KAMAZ trucks (2 were towing D-30 howitzers), 1 D-20 howitzer, troops in cover, and what appears to be an EXTRA missile strike at the end. 1613/
You can see the TB2 painting this T-72 tank for a MAM munition strike. 1614/
This is actually quite good camouflage. One lesson from this conflict is that even very good camouflage won't protect you against modern UCAVs if they have enough time to just scan defensive positions. Their presence over friendly forces has to be contested. 1615/ Image
Presumably, an Israeli EXTRA missile strike. 1616/ ImageImageImage
I've heard a number of people suggest this footage was from an NKR ammo depot, and I honestly can't tell since the footage starts with a large fire on the ground. But the footage at the end clearly shows incendiary munitions being used. 1617/
Another video of what appears to be incendiary munitions being employed in Karabakh. 1618/
t.me/military_arm/3…
Warning: graphic video. TB2 video showing what Azerbaijan says is an Armenian sabotage-reconnaissance group by an UAZ jeep and marshrutka. A TB2 targets the UAZ and it appears artillery fire is later employed against the group. 1619/
Second half of that graphic video. The group is picked up by a KAMAZ truck, which is tracked by TB2 before being targeted at the end. The persistent presence of these TB2 makes it extremely difficult for Armenian forces to counterattack, even with a small group in jeeps. 1620/
Azerbaijan has apparently captured an Armenian/NKR Osa-AK air defense TELAR, and has transported it to Baku. 1621/
vk.com/milinfolive?z=… Image
Video taken on the road to and inside of Shusha/Shushi from yesterday. Clearly there is a good deal of damage and it appears much of the city may be deserted. 1622/
t.me/bmpd_cast/4728
Video of an Azerbaijani strike on Stepanakert’s central market. 1623/
t.me/karabakhskie_a…
Photos of the damage from strikes on Stepanakert on the night of October 29-30. 1624/
facebook.com/ArmenianUnifie… ImageImageImageImage
1625/
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Video showing Azerbaijani forces with a Plasan SandCat vehicle, reportedly in the vicinity of Shusha/Shushi. 1628/
t.me/infantmilitari…
Iranian Tor-M1, Mersad-16, and an MRAP being transported towards the border with Azerbaijan. 1629/
t.me/ImpNavigator/7…
This has already occurred. Armenia and Azerbaijan both acknowledge that Azerbaijan has struck targets within Armenia proper. 1630/
themoscowtimes.com/2020/10/31/rus… Image
Banak video showing Armenian/NKR UAZ-469, GAZ-66, Ural-4320, KAMAZ trucks, 12 D-20 howitzers, and 3-4 BM-21 Grad MLRS. 1631/
1632/
1633/
Video reportedly from yesterday of NKR air defenses shooting down an Azerbaijani UAV outside of Stepanakert. 1634/
From the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman. 1635/ Image
From the Azerbaijani MoD. 1636/ Image
1637/
1638/
Azerbaijan says that the main area of the fighting is in the Aghdere, Aghdam, Khojavend and Gubadli regions, and that yesterday it destroyed:
-1 IFV
-2 BM-21 Grad MLRS
-8 howitzers
-2 comm towers
-5 vehicles
1639/
 mod.gov.az/en/news/the-la… Image
1640/
Azerbaijani TB2 footage showing a strike on two NKR/Armenian trucks loaded with ammunition. Azerbaijan says this strike occurred last night. 1641/
mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-…
1642/
Photos of the motor section of a Smerch MLRS rocket that landed in a cemetery in Stepanakert. 1643/
Photos: Илья Питалев
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImageImageImage
Yeah, about those photos. 1644/
Footage, presumably from a UAV or loitering munition (though not like any I've seen before), of strikes on two BM-21 Grad MLRS, according to the Azerbaijani MoD. Hard to tell exactly what happened. 1645/
mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-…
Warning: graphic video. Az MoD video that reportedly shows Su-25 strikes on Armenian/NKR positions (with TB2 footage). I believe this is the 1st time Azerbaijan has admitted that Su-25 are conducting air strikes (though some look like EXTRA missiles).1646/
mod.gov.az/en/news/destru…
The last two strikes from that video appear to be EXTRA ground-launched missiles. Azerbaijan has increasingly been employing larger munitions, ground-launched missiles or aerial bombs, against defensive positions rather than TB2 MAM munitions. 1647/ ImageImageImageImage
Nonetheless, it is significant that Azerbaijan is employing manned aviation, as it signals that NKR lacks an AD capability (Osa and Strela-10 can still shoot down Su-25 and helicopters). Su-25 and Mi-35M will be more effective for CAS and degrading fortified defenses. 1648/
A few people have been pointing out that these strikes could have been from Aselsan laser-guided QFAB-250-LG aerial bombs that can be carried by Azerbaijan's Su-25M aircraft (and the targets can presumably be painted by TB2). 1649/
defenceturkey.com/en/content/see…
azernews.az/business/15000… ImageImage
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TB2 footage showing strikes on 4 D-20 howitzers, 3 D-30 howitzers, and one 2A36 Giatsint-B artillery piece. 1651/
mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-…
Video allegedly of a Syrian mercenary in Karabakh who was captured by NKR forces. 1652/
Damaged buildings in Martuni. 1653/
ANNA News says this is the second or third UAV shot down over Stepanakert tonight by NKR air defenses. 1654/
t.me/anna_news/9275
Another graphic TB2 video showing strikes on Armenian/NKR soldiers in trenches. 1655/
mod.gov.az/en/news/destru…
Not sure what this was. Bunker buster or delayed fuze munition? 1666/
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1668/
1669/
Looking at it again, I agree that the first was most likely a MAM-L that didn't detonate (not sure why you'd choose to show that), and then a second different munition striking ~5 meters from the MAM-L impact. 1670/
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1672/
Video of an explosion outside of Stepanakert tonight. 1673/
t.me/SputnikArmenia…
1674/
Azerbaijan published a TB2 video showing strikes on an Armenian/NKR convoy yesterday at 17:00 near Khojavend. Some sources are claiming that NKR's leader Arayik Harutyunyan was killed in the strike, though this hasn't been confirmed. 1675/
mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-…
Warning: graphic video. The second half of that video shows cluster munitions being employed against members of the convoy. TB2 then struck two vehicles as they drove away. 1676/
mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-…
BBC Russian report from the Lachin Corridor with a photo of Russian servicemen across the border in Armenia proper. 1677/
bbc.com/russian/featur… Image
One of the Armenian leaders says that Azerbaijani military equipment is only 10-15km from the village of Lachin, but can't progress because of the terrain. He says Az is sending in sabotage groups in pickup trucks as a result, which are only 8km away.1678/
bbc.com/russian/featur…
He says that Azerbaijani rockets/missiles strike the village every morning, and then UAVs arrive at night (presumably TB2), which strike targets in the morning after locating them. 1679/
BBC also posted this photo, which is reportedly part of the wreckage from an Azerbaijani UAV or loitering munition. I can't ID them though. 1680/
bbc.com/russian/featur… Image
A video appeared on Telegram that appears to show Azerbaijani soldiers mutilating the bodies of dead Armenian/NKR soldiers, including cutting one of the soldier’s ears off. The video appears genuine. 1681/ ImageImageImageImage
Reuters report on members of the Armenian diaspora, including from Lebanon, returning to fight in Karabakh. 1682/
reuters.com/article/us-arm…
Video of an Azerbaijani pickup truck that was captured by NKR forces. 1683/
t.me/military_arm/3…
Video of a funeral for Azerbaijani soldiers from Nakhchivan posted last week. 1684/
1685/
Video from Bars media showing Azerbaijani incendiary munitions with thermite being employed against NKR/Armenian positions. I don't think this is WP. 1686/
There’s another video posted a few days ago on that same Telegram channel that appears to show an Armenian soldier cutting off the ear of a dead Azerbaijani soldier. There is also a video of an Armenian PoW being abused and Armenian bodies being dragged by a vehicle. 1687/ ImageImageImage
There have already been multiple cases of atrocities (not all of which have been confirmed), including executions, prisoner abuse, and body mutilations, that were recorded and posted on Telegram. I can only imagine how many actual cases there are that aren't being recorded. 1688/ ImageImageImageImage
Video reportedly of NKR air defenses shooting down an Azerbaijani UAV, possibly another An-2. 1689/
t.me/KarabakhRecord…
Graphic video that shows the aftermath of Azerbaijani shelling of the village of Davit Bek in Armenia proper that reportedly killed one and wounded two. 1690/
t.me/KarabakhRecord…
The Deputy Commander of the NKR Defense Forces, Colonel Artur Sargsyan, was killed in the fighting. 1691/
ru.armeniasputnik.am/karabah/202011…
1692/
NKR released another 11 names of Armenian/NKR soldiers who have died in the fighting, brining the total to at least 1,177. They haven't been releasing daily figures for much of the week, and this is a smaller than normal list. 1693/
ru.armeniasputnik.am/karabah/202011… Image
Azerbaijani loitering munition strike on an Armenian/NKR 2K12 Kub air defense system's 2P25 TEL. 1694/
The Azerbaijani MoD says this occurred today at about 18:00 in the Chardagli village of the Terter region. We saw a video from a similar UAV/loitering munition yesterday. It looks different than the previous videos from Harop munitions (and doesn't look like Kargu vids). 1695/ ImageImage
Azerbaijani MoD video showing TB2 UCAV strikes on 4 Armenian/NKR BM-21 Grad MLRS. This reportedly occurred this morning from 00:30-02:25. 1696/
Another Azerbaijani TB2 video showing strikes on Armenian/NKR soldiers in defensive positions. 1697/
Semyon Pegov claims this building in Shusha/Shushi was hit by an Azerbaijani Polonez MLRS System. 1698/
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Interestingly, most of the geolocated TB2 and artillery strikes from Azerbaijan over the past few days have been near Khojavend/Martuni, and not near Lachin or Shusha-Shushi. This terrain is less mountainous, which might be why it is the focus. 1699/
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Video of Azerbaijani D-30 howitzers. 1707/
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This was the Azerbaijani MoD's assessment from this morning. It claimed Azerbaijani forces destroyed 4 BM-21 Grad MLRS, 10 howitzers, 3 trucks with ammunition, and 5 other vehicles yesterday and last night. 1708/
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Video of Azerbaijani MLRS. 1709/
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Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev claims that Azerbaijan captured 8 villages from the Jabrayil, Zangilan, and Gubadli districts. 1711/
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This is reportedly CCTV footage from the strikes on Barda on October 28. 1712/
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Video reportedly of an Azerbaijani aircraft or UAV shot down by NKR air defenses. We should wait to see what the wreckage looks like. 1713/
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Screenshots of Azerbaijani Israeli-made Lynx 122mm MLRS based on a KAMAZ chassis. 1717/
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ANNA News video showing an Armenian/NKR patrol near Shusha-Shushi that runs into an Azerbaijani patrol on another hilltop. It appears the NKR patrol called in mortar or artillery fire on the Azerbaijani patrol. 1719/
Note, the Azerbaijani unit is patrolling along the topographic crest of the hill not the military crest, which would reduce their silhouette (i.e. so the sky isn't in the background). Basic infantry patrolling TTPs still matter. 1720/ ImageImageImage
The beginning of that video of NKR soldiers, many of whom appear to be middle-aged reservists, on patrol near Shusha/Shushi. 1721/
Another clip from that video. 1722/
The Azerbaijani MoD said that the fighting is primarily occurring in the Aghdere, Khojavend, Zangilan, and Gubadli regions, and that Az forces destroyed 4 BM-21 Grad MLRS, 1 Kub AD system, 9 howitzers, and 2 trucks with ammo yesterday. 1723/
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The Armenian MoD said NKR forces struck an Azerbaijani SOF column near the villages of Sheher and Tagavard in the vicinity of Shusha/Shushi. The photos show damaged Plasan SandCat vehicles. 1724/
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More photos of Plasan SandCat vehicles from that Azerbaijani column that was ambushed by NKR forces. 1725/
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Semyon Pegov video from the site of that ambush near Qirmizi Bazar. The full YouTube video shows three Azerbaijani Plasan SandCat vehicles, one that was burned, one that was flipped on its side in the road, and a third at the bottom of the hill. 1727/
According to the Armenian MoD, this is the current status and location of the fighting. 1728/
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Azerbaijani MoD UAV video showing strikes on what they claim are two Armenian ammo depots near Khankendi. 1729/
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Video from Bars Media showing Armenian/NKR soldiers in defensive positions engaging Azerbaijani soldiers on another hilltop with sniper rifles and mortars. 1732/
Screenshots of Azerbaijani soldiers viewed from an NKR defensive position. 1733/ ImageImageImageImage
Possibly more incendiary munitions employed against NKR/Armenian positions. 1734/
Remainder of that video showing Armenian/NKR soldiers near the front lines. 1735/
A battlefield souvenir. 1736/ ImageImage
Video of another Azerbaijani An-2 unmanned aircraft being shot down. 1737/
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Another TB2 video showing strikes on Armenian/NKR troops in defensive positions. Many of the strikes were from artillery or MLRS. 1738/
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Azerbaijani MoD video showing TB2 strikes on two Armenian/NKR T-72 tanks. 1739/
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Another Azerbaijani MoD TB2 video showing strikes on three artillery pieces. 1740/
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Semyon Pegov posted a photo of himself with NKR’s leader Arayik Harutyunyan. Some Azerbaijani accounts were claiming that he was killed in a TB2 strike the other day. 1741/
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AP video of Stepanakert under fire tonight. 1742/
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Another video was posted on Telegram today that showed the body of an Armenian soldier, whose ears had been cut off, being mutilated. According to people I talked to, the person doing this was cursing in Turkish in what sounded like an Anatolian or Syrian Turkmen accent. 1745/
A second video was uploaded today to that same Telegram account that showed what appears to be Azerbaijani soldiers (they blurred their faces) cutting off the ears from the bodies of two Armenian soldiers. It seems this is only getting worse. 1746/
One of the first official statements that I have seen from Iran on the conflict. 1747/ Image
Video of Azerbaijani soldiers reportedly driving in Zangilan. You can see what appears to be two BTRs at the beginning of the video. 1748/
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Semnyon Pegov posted another video showing Armenian/NKR soldiers in defensive positions near Karintak/Dashalti, which is just south of Shusha/Shushi. 1749/
Another clip from that video near Karintak/Dashalti. 1750/
Photo of a damaged Armenian/NKR BM-21 Grad MLRS. 1751/
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From the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman. 1759/ Image
The Azerbaijani MoD says that the fighting continues in the Tartar, Aghdam, Khojavend, Zangilan, and Gubadli directions, and that its forces destroyed 2 T-72, 3 D-30, 1 Zastava M-55, 1 UAV, and 3 military trucks. 1760/
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Azerbaijani MoD video showing a TB2 strike on an Armenian/NKR MT-LB with a Zastava M55 20mm cannon. 1761/
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Video from Armenian TV showing fighting in Karintak/Dashaltı just to the south of Shusha/Shushi. 1763/
The Armenian MoD released a UAV video (the first we've seen since September from them) showing artillery strikes on Azerbaijani troops near Shusha/Shushi. As others have noted, the footage looks like it is from a Russian-made Orlan-10 UAV. 1764/
1st screenshot from the Armenian MoD video and the second from a Russian MoD video with an Orlan-10 UAV. 1765/
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Armenia published a number of UAV videos during the fighting in July and there were videos of Azerbaijani forces shooting down Armenian UAVs/loitering munitions last month, but this is the first UAV video I believe Armenia has released recently. 1766/
But from those videos from July, the footage appeared to be only from Armenian-made UAVs (like the X-55 or Army-55M) or loitering munitions. So if they now have Orlan-10, this might be the first evidence of new arms supplies coming from Russia since September. 1767/
I'm not sure how many air defense assets Azerbaijan is moving forward with its ground forces, so Armenian UAVs (even without munitions) could play an important role in disrupting Azerbaijani advances and assisting artillery and mortar fire. 1768/
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that Azerbaijan has captured 7 more villages in the Jabrayil, Zangilan, and Gubadli districts. 1769/
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That means these Azerbaijani troops were only ~1.5 miles from Shusha/Shushi. 1770/
Video from Shusha/Shushi today. 1771/
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Undated video showing what appears to be an Armenian/NKR ATGM strike on an Azerbaijani T-90S tank. Not sure if it was a direct hit. 1773/
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From another part of that video, the gunner on an Azerbaijani Plasan SandCat vehicle engages Armenian border guard soldiers at a range of 100-200 meters, but the vehicle is then struck in the rear by an RPG. 1774/
Full video from the Armenian border guard (h/t @imp_navigator). It shows artillery strikes in the beginning and then that Azerbaijani Plasan SandCat vehicle being struck by an RPG before a T-90S tank and BMP-2 arrive. The T-90S is struck by an ATGM. 1775/
ANNA News says that the Lachin Corridor Road hasn’t been seized by Azerbaijani forces, but they say that the road was closed to civilian traffic due to the close proximity of Azerbaijani forces (who lack armor there). 1776/
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At this point, much of the fighting in the strategically critical Lachin Corridor and near Shusha/Shushi is being conducted by squad-platoon size forces. Much of it seems to be NKR forces in defensive positions trying to maintain a strong patrolling effort. 1777/
Photos of NKR soldiers and a mortar team somewhere near Shusha/Shushi. 1778/
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Video of the aftermath of shelling on Stepanakert. 1779/
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A new video shows what appears to be a destroyed Azerbaijani BMP-2, a second BMP (possibly with its turret blown off), and a tank with a number of Azerbaijani bodies. The video ends with NKR soldiers repeatedly shooting dead bodies. 1780/ ImageImageImageImage
More screenshots from the 4-5 videos on Telegram, which all appear to be from the same location. Not sure when this happened, but the videos appear to show dozens of Azerbaijani bodies in addition to the BMPs. 1781/ ImageImageImageImage
Armenia published a video of what they say is an Azerbaijani UAV, most likely a loitering munition. 1782/
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Photos of what the Armenian MoD says is another Azerbaijani UAV they claim they shot down. 1783/
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Possibly, the wreckage from an Orbiter loitering munition. (h/t @Nihahahad)
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Maybe this is the same event from those Telegram videos showing 2 Azerbaijani BMPs, a tank, and dozens of bodies. 1785/ Image
Another video of Azerbaijanis reportedly in Zangilan. 1786/
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Another video from that group of videos published by NKR soldiers today that left at least 2 Az BMPs damaged (you can see them at the end), possibly a tank, and dozens of Azerbaijani soldiers dead. 1788/
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Video from Semyon Pegov in Shusha/Shushi. 1789/
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The Azerbaijani MoD posted a video showing Armenian/NKR equipment they have captured, including MT-LB with a Zastava M55, D-20 and D-30 howitzers, 2S1 Gvozdika, ZSU-23-4 Shilka, T-72, and Ural/GAZ/KAMAZ trucks. 1796/
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Video of villages in the Fuzuli and Khojavend regions that Azerbaijan has captured. 1797/
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Azerbaijani MoD video showing artillery strikes on what is says is the headquarters of the 7th mountain rifle regiment of the 10th mountain rifle division in Tonashen. Interestingly, this footage is not from a TB2. 1798/
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Screenshot of that captured Armenian/NKR 2S1 Gvozdika and Shilka. Looks like the 2S1 was hit by a MAM munition. 1802/ Image
From the Armenian MoD’s Artsrun Hovhannisyan. 1803/
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Two part video from Semyon Pegov with NKR soldiers near Shusha/Shushi who are trying to push back Azerbaijani patrols, at least one of which reached the road connecting the city to Armenia yesterday. You can see a Shilka at the end of the clip. 1804/
Second part of that video near Shusha-Shushi showing a firefight at the end. 1805/
Screenshots of that NKR Shilka and soldiers. Still a huge mistake for NKR soldiers to bunch up together this much, especially on a main road. 1806/ ImageImageImageImage
From just outside of Shusha/Shushi. 1807/
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This Armenian soldier from Pegov's video near Shusha/Shushi is Mihran Harutyunyan, a Russian-Armenian wrestler who won a silver medal in wrestling at the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro. 1810/ ImageImage
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Two part video from ANNA News taken from inside Shusha/Shushi and with mortar crews outside the city. 1812/
Second part of that video with NKR mortar teams near Shusha/Shushi. 1813/
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Video from Stepanakert tonight. ANNA News claims the strikes are from BM-21 Grad MLRS. 1815/
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The Turkish Clash Report account also believes that the video Armenia published yesterday was from a Russian-made Orlan-10 UAV. 1816/ Image
Video of Azerbaijani SOF shooting into the air in celebration after capturing a position. 1817/
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I was waiting for someone to geolocate this. Those 5 or so videos posted on Telegram yesterday that showed 2 damaged Azerbaijani BMPs, a tank, and several Az bodies appears to have been taken from just outside of Martuni/Khojavend. 1818/
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Photo reportedly of two Azerbaijani BMP-2 that were seized by NKR forces. Though the distance to the BMPs makes it unclear if they were actually captured. 1821/
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Video possibly showing another Azerbaijani An-2 being shot down. Obviously, the guy in the video didn’t shoot it down. 1823/
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Statement from Garmin after some of its products were found inside a Turkish TB2 that crashed in Nagorno-Karabakh. 1824/
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Video of Azerbaijani SOF in a fire fight somewhere in the mountains. Not sure when this occurred, could be old. 1825/
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Video of Armenian soldiers raising their flag over a position they reportedly recaptured. 1826/
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The Armenian MoD published a high-quality UAV video from the Lachin Corridor showing several damaged/abandoned Azerbaijani Plasan SandCat, Matador/Marauder MRAPs, 3 BMP-2, at least one tank, and trucks. The video also showed several bodies. 1827/
Note, this engagement is where that photo from yesterday of the two abandoned Azerbaijani BMP-2 is from. The video showed 3 BMP-2. The first is clearly damaged, the second might be damaged, but the third appears to be in pretty good condition. 1828/ ImageImageImage
This is only ~6 miles from the main road connecting Karabakh to Armenia proper in the Lachin Corridor. 1829/
It looks like 1 tank was destroyed (no turret likely means its ammo detonated), 1 Matador and 3 Marauder MRAPs, 1 Plasan SandCat, and 1 truck on fire. Not clear if they were all damaged/abandoned at the same time. Clearly, the fight in the Lachin Corridor will be tough. 1830/ ImageImageImageImage
The footage gives us a good indication of the canalized terrain. The hills and valleys have only a few roads with limited maneuver room. So mines, obstacles, and ATGM teams trained on these roads makes it difficult for Az forces to use their superior armor effectively. 1831/ ImageImageImageImage
Assuming that that engagement happened yesterday or the day before, Azerbaijani forces appear to be trying to both retake Shusha/Shushi (and the road to Goris) and the towns to the south/SW, and cut off the Lachin Corridor closer to the border with Armenia at the same time. 1832/
Plus, it appears there was firefight just south of Martuni/Khojavend two days ago. It seems Azerbaijani forces are still trying to progress in a few different directions to find the easiest route of advance. 1833/
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The Az MoD said that the direction of fighting is in the Aghdere, Aghdam, Khojavend, and Gubadli regions. Interestingly, they didn't ID any equipment they destroyed from the previous day, which they normally do, and we didn't see a TB2 vid yesterday. 1835/
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Report from Karabakh. This confirms what we saw from Pegov's video from yesterday, showing NKR soldiers on the road connecting Shusha/Shushi to Goris in Armenia. Defense of that road could prove to be decisive. 1836/
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Another three civilians were reportedly killed in shelling Stepanakert. 1837/
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Video of the air raid siren in Stepanakert this morning. The weather looks fairly overcast, which is likely why we have seen only one TB2 video over the past couple of days. 1838/
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Photos of those two destroyed Azerbaijani BMP-2 just south of Khojavend/Martuni that were previously shown in videos posted on Telegram two days ago. 1839/
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Another video of the air raid siren and the sound of shelling from Stepanakert. 1840/
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Video of NKR soldiers preparing food in a trench line. 1841/
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NKR soldier with a KS-19 100mm anti-aircraft cannon. 1842/
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UAV footage from the Azerbaijani side of the village of Amirkhanli in the Zangilan region. 1843/
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Azerbaijani MoD non-TB2 UAV footage showing artillery strikes on what they claim are NKR mortar positions near the village of Goyarkh in the Tartar region. The weather conditions seem to be hindering TB2 operations over the past few days. 1844/
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Another Azerbaijani UAV video showing artillery strikes on what they claim are NKR/Armenian D-30 howitzers near Aghdere. 1846/
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With the recent news that Canada was blocking deliveries of WESCAM CMX 15D turrets for TB2, the TB2's producer published a video showing a TB2 with its domestic-made replacement and said it conducted its first test fire of a MAM-L munition. 1847/
Two part video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing villages they have captured in the Fuzuli region. 1848/
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Second half of that Azerbaijani MoD video from the Fuzuli region. 1849/
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ANNA News says that NKR armor is being used in the fighting around Shusha/Shushi because of the reduced aerial threat. The question is whether this is only because of the overcast weather over the past few days or if there is another reason. 1850/
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Hard to overstate how significant the TB2 and Azerbaijan's aerial dominance has been. Not only did they effectively prevent any serious counterattacks by NKR forces, but they prevented them from reinforcing defensive positions with armor during Az assaults. 1851/
I assume the current reprieve is weather related so it is likely only temporary, but I wouldn't question how important a few days without a serious aerial threat can be for NKR forces and their morale. It is a great opportunity to reinforce positions as well. 1852/
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Reportedly, wreckage from two Harop loitering munitions and an Aerostar UAV. 1856/
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Video of the fighting near Tagavard village in the Martuni/Khojavend region from the perspective of NKR soldiers. 1857/
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Second part of that video showing a wounded NKR soldier being CASEVAC’d while under fire. 1858/
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Video from Azerbaijan's CBC TV of captured positions near Horadiz in the Fizuli region. The video shows two damaged NKR T-72 tanks and several KAMAZ and Ural trucks as well two destroyed Azerbaijani BTR-82A. 1859/
Those 2 destroyed Azerbaijani BTR-82A, two NKR captured Igla-S MANPADS, two captured NKR T-72 tanks, and a look at the terrain. The terrain in the south was much more favorable to Azerbaijani for maximizing its superiority with tanks and armored vehicles. 1860/ ImageImageImageImage
Looking at the 10 day forecast, which appears to favor NKR, I suspect Azerbaijan will try to make the most of the expected sunny weather on Monday/Tuesday with heavy TB2 strikes, but the rest of the week might be a good time for NKR to use armor to try to retake terrain. 1861/ ImageImage
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman, Shushan Stepanyan, says that the fighting near Shusha/Shushi and Karintak/Dashalty overnight was "especially intensive and fierce". 1862/ Image
According to the Azerbaijani MoD, the fighting is primarily in the Aghdere, Aghdam, and Khojavend directions of the front. No indication that TB2 were used. 1863/
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Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced that Azerbaijan has captured another 16 villages. 1864/
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Two-part video from ANNA News from near the front lines in the vicinity of Shusha/Shusi from yesterday. Notably, the heavy fog is allowing NKR to use armor again (temporarily) without worrying about TB2. The video shows 2 T-72 tanks and a BMP-2. 1865/
Second part of the video from ANNA News near Shusha-Shushi yesterday. 1866/
Screenshots of those 2 NKR T-72 tanks, one BMP-2, and NKR soldiers near a heavily overcast Shusha/Shushi yesterday. 1867/ ImageImageImageImage
Another video apparently of an Azerbaijani An-2 unmanned aircraft getting shot down. 1867/
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Video of an Armenian soldier celebrating his 37th birthday in the mountains of Karabakh where snow is already on the ground. 1868/
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NKR/Armenian 2S1 Gvozdika howitzers engaging Azerbaijani targets. 1869/
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Video from Stepanakert yesterday. 1870/
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Another video of NKR 2S1 Gvozdika howitzers firing on Azerbaijani targets near Shusha/Shushi. 1871/
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Azerbaijani soldiers celebrating after capturing an NKR position. 1872/
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Video of Armenian/NKR troops somewhere in the mountains. Possibly an old video. 1874/
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Just north of Shusha/Shushi. 1876/
Video from the Azerbaijani MoD of recaptured villages in the Jabrayil region. 1877/
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Full video of Azerbaijani soldiers celebrating after recapturing an NKR position. 1878/
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Even COTS UAVs can be quite useful. 1879/
Video from Stepanakert from earlier tonight showing Shusha/Shushi under fire. 1880/
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Video from an Armenian source showing Armenian/NKR forces firing on Azerbaijani troops just outside of Shusha/Shushi. 1881/
Very close miss on that NKR T-72 tank. 1882/
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A look at that munition fired at the NKR T-72 tank. Possibly a MAM-L munition launched by a TB2 (the weather looks clearer) or maybe something bigger. As with many MAM strikes, near misses often don't do much damage to armor. 1883/ ImageImageImageImage
To see why this is so significant, Azerbaijani forces are now just outside of Shusha/Shushi and only 2-3 miles from Karabakh's capital, Stepanakert/Khankendi. That road is also the last safe road connecting Karabakh to Armenia. 1884/ ImageImage
NKR soldiers in the mountains, presumably in northern Karabakh, with plenty of snow on the ground. 1885/
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The status of the fighting according to the NKR defense forces. 1886/ Image
Video of an explosion between Shusha/Shushi and Stepanakert/Khankendi. 1887/
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The sound of machine gun fire reportedly coming from Shusha/Shushi. 1888/
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Video of civilians leaving Stepanakert as Azerbaijani forces move closer to the city and Shusha/Shushi. 1892/
From the Armenian MoD’s spokespeople. 1893/
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The current status of the fighting according to the Azerbaijani MoD. They claimed they destroyed 4 T-72 tanks, 2 D-20 howitzers, and several vehicles. 1894/
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Deleted this tweet because a number of people have suggested it isn't from Karabakh. 1896/ Image
More from President Aliyev's speech. 1897/ Image
Video from Semyon Pegov in Stepanakert. He holds up what he claims is the remains of a TR-107 MLRS rocket. 1898/
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From the Armenian MoD’s Artsrun Hovhannisyan. 1900/ Image
People in Baku celebrating the announcement that Shusha/Shushi was taken. 1901/
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The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman, Shushan Stepanyan, says that their air defenses shot down another TB2 UCAV. 1902/
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More photos from the Armenian MoD of the wreckage of that TB2 UCAV, including its Rotax engine. 1903/
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Warning: graphic video. This is the the first TB2 video published by Azerbaijan over the past four days I believe, and it shows a Su-25 air strike on what Azerbaijan says is an NKR command post near Martuni/Khojavend at 14:00 today. 1904/
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Another TB2 video posted by the Azerbaijani MoD showing strikes on NKR defensive positions. Notably, both of these videos show strikes near Martuni/Khojavend but not around Shusha/Shushi or the Lachin Corridor. 1905/
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Video from the Armenian MoD showing what they claim are Azerbaijani troops retreating in the Lachin Corridor. Looks like the same location from a previous video. 1908/
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As others have pointed out, this video was first published in October. 1910/ Image
Video from an Armenian source showing what appears to be two damaged or abandoned Azerbaijani BMPs and several bodies of Azerbaijani soldiers reportedly in the Lachin Corridor. 1911/
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An Armenian father and son meeting each other near the front. 1912/
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More scenes from Baku tonight after President Aliyev’s announcement that Azerbaijan has recaptured Shusha/Shushi. 1913/
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Photos of a group of Armenian soldiers who fought together in the war in the 1990s, the 2016 Four-Day War, and current fighting. 1914/
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Video of a firefight from the Armenian side. 1915/
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RIA Novosti's Ilya Pitalev published these photos today and said that Armenia launched several 9K72 Elbrus Scud-B tactical ballistic missiles today from near Karvachar/Kalbajar in Karabakh. 1917/
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More photos of Karabakh residents fleeing the fighting through the Kalbajar/Karvachar region. 1924/
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Video of NKR soldiers firing machine guns and an RPG in the Lachin region. 1925/
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Azerbaijani MoD video from the town of Balasoltanli in the Gubadli region. 1928/
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Azerbaijani MoD video from the village of Tsakuri in the Khojavend region. 1929/
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Azerbaijani border guards have begun service at the Mindzhivan border outpost in the Zangilan region.
Photos: Алексей Куденко
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According to the Azerbaijani MoD, fighting is occurring in the Aghdere, Aghdam, Khojavend, and Gubadli regions, and they claim they destroyed 1 T-72 tank, 1 D-30 howitzer, 1 mortar, and 1 military truck full of ammunition yesterday. 1932/
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Azerbaijani MoD TB2 video with strikes on an NKR mortar team near Metshen, a T-72 tank near Tonashen, and NKR troops near Khojavend/Martuni. 1933/
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NKR announced the names of another 44 soldiers who have died in the fighting, bringing the total to at least 1,221. They last published the names of fallen soldiers on Nov 2. 1934/
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Video of loitering munition strikes, presumably from Harops, on an NKR T-72 tank and BMP-2 IFV on the Lachin-Shusha/Shushi road. 1935/
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A Russian Mi-24 helicopter from Russia’s 102nd Military Base was shot down by Azerbaijani air defenses today, killing two and wounding one. The Russian MoD says it was escorting a Russian convoy near the border with Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan region. 1936/
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The Mi-24 (RF-91855) helicopter was reportedly shot down by a MANPADS near the Armenian village of Yeraskh in Armenian air space at 18:30. 1937/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
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Statement from the Azerbaijani MFA. They apologized for downing the helicopter and said they would pay appropriate compensation. They also noted that they have not seen Russian helos there before, and that it was flying below the radar detection zone.1938/
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A War Gonzo report from near the crash site. You can see a BM-21 Grad MLRS, which was presumably part of the Russian military convoy that the Mi-24 was escorting. Russia has been reinforcing its positions along the Armenian border over the past month.1939/
This forces Russia's hand. Moscow has suggested that Azerbaijan isn't striking targets in Armenia proper, which would meet their collective security criteria with CSTO ally Armenia, even though it was happening. Now a Russian aircraft was shot down in Armenia. 1940/
So it would be even more ridiculous to claim that Azerbaijan still isn't striking targets in Armenia proper, even though Russia has made it fairly clear that is doesn't want to become involved in this conflict. Obviously, the 2015 Su-24 shoot down is a possible precedent. 1941/
I suspect Russia won't become involved directly but it will reinforce its military assets in Armenia, including along the border. There was also an interesting plurality of opinions on the conflict among Russian pundits. I doubt we'll hear as many pro-Az views from now on. 1942/
Video of the Russian Mi-24 crash site near the village of Yeraskh near the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. 1943/
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The Azerbaijani MoD published a video showing Azerbaijani forces in Shusha/Shushi. 1944/
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Azerbaijani President Aliyev announced that Azerbaijani forces have captured another 71 villages, 1 settlement, and 8 strategic hills. 1945/
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This is notable. Azerbaijan published a video showing a TB2 and loitering munnion strike on a Tor-M2KM air defense system, Armenia's premier SHORAD. Armenia had previously held them back, but now they are obviously being used as Az forces progress. 1946/
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The first strike looked like a loitering munition and the second like a MAM-L munition from a TB2. We have previously seen TB2 used in conjunction with loitering munitions to strike Armenian air defense systems. 1947/ ImageImageImageImage
The third strike was a bigger munition, possibly an aerial bomb from a Su-25. 1948/ ImageImageImageImage
Armenia received its first Tor-M2KM systems last December. Azerbaijan previously claimed it destroyed at least 3 Tor-M2KM systems but never provided evidence. The most recent TB2 loss was probably shot down from a Tor-M2KM (or maybe Buk-M1-2). 1949/
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Another video reportedly of the Russian Mi-24 helicopter being shot down by an Azerbaijani MANPADS today. 1950/
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Video purportedly of Armenian Iskander tactical ballistic missile systems launching 9M723 missiles. Hard to be sure, but this would be a significant escalation from Armenia, which had previously held these systems back (using Scuds instead). 1951/
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The footage isn’t great, but that looks like an Iskander 9P78-1 TEL launching a 9M723 missile. 1952/
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Azerbaijan's Haqqin reports that a joint statement by Putin, Aliyev, and Pashinyan is being prepared that will call for a truce. They report that Armenia will withdraw from Kelbajar, Lachin, and Aghdam and Baku will keep the terrain it has seized. 1953/
haqqin.az/news/193491
1954/
That same vice speaker later clarified that he didn't have any information that they were actually going to Karabakh, but heard some of the soldiers talking about Karabakh. 1955/
kommersant.ru/doc/4565475#id…
Statement from Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on signing a truce with Azerbaijan (English is from Google Translate). 1956/
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So now the report that the Russian VDV's 31st Air Assault Brigade could be on its way to Karabakh makes some sense. They may be headed there as peacekeepers. 1957/ Image
According to the agreement, Armenia will withdraw from the Agdam and Gazakh regions by November 20, the Kelbajar region by November 15, and the Lachin region by December 1. 1,960 Russian peacekeepers will be deployed in Lachin and the LoC. 1958/
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The agreement says that both sides will develop a plan for a new road that will connect Stepanakert to Armenia through the Lachin Corridor. The Russian peacekeepers will be there for 5 years with an automatic extension of another 5 years if neither side objects. 1959/
The agreement also says that Azerbaijan will guarantee the safety of traffic along the Lachin corridor, and that
Armenia will allow unimpeded movement through Armenian territory from western Azerbaijan to its Nakhichevan region. 1960/
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From the leader of NKR. 1961/ Image
Protestors in Yerevan. 1962/
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Video of protestors in Yerevan angered by the agreement signed by Nikol Pashinyan. 1963/
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1964/
Angry protestors have broken into the Armenian Government building in Yerevan. 1965/
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1966/
President Putin's statement on the agreement. He noted that economic and transport links are to be unblocked and that these transport links will be controlled with the assistance of the Russian FSB Border Service. 1967/
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This wasn't mentioned in the agreement (at least what has been released thus far), but the possibility of Turkish peacekeepers was an obvious question. 1968/
1969/
Video of protestors in the Armenian Government building. 1970/
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1971/
There are obviously a number of questions of how this will all work out. Will Nikol Pashinyan survive? Will his successor agree to all of these terms? How will it work for refugees from both sides returning to their homes? How will Armenians view Russia from now on? 1972/
The Russian MoD announced that peacekeepers are departing Ulyanovsk in Il-76 aircraft for NK. The Russian component will be primarily from the Central Military District's 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade, Russia's only dedicated peacekeeping brigade. 1973/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
Russian peacekeepers on the way to Karabakh. 1974/
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1975/
1976/
Video from Yerevan tonight. 1977/
From President Aliyev's speech. 1978/ Image
1979/
1980/
There a # of lessons from this conflict, including that military force and hard power still matter in the 21st Century. One side with superior military hardware was able to translate that into a foreign policy success and to retake territory because of military power. 1981/
Other countries will take note of this. Azerbaijan had a powerful ally that aided it directly and consequentially in this conflict, Armenia did not. Azerbaijan was finally able to translate its greater economic power, largely from natural resources, into battlefield success.1982/
For Turkey this is a clear victory and success for its TB2 method of supporting allies/proxies to advance its national interests. In Idlib, Turkey achieved tactical successes with TB2 but not strategic success. In Libya, they were able to save the GNA and now another win. 1983/
As a sign of how politically important this conflict is, there are huge protests right now in Yerevan, including in government buildings. There were large protests in Baku during the fighting in July, which also broke into government buildings. 1984/
From an NKR official. 1985/ Image
From Nikol Pashinyan's Facebook live address. 1986/ Image
Russia troops driving through Goris on their way to Karabakh. 1987/
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There's a photo on Telegram right now showing him possibly unconscious and without a shirt. 1988/
Video of Ararat Mirzoyan, Armenia’s speaker of parliament, being dragged out of his vehicle and attacked by the crowd. A photo taken from after the attack shows him unconscious. 1989/
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Video of protestors inside of Armenian’s Parliament building. 1990/
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It appears protestors have made there way into Pashiyan’s office. 1991/
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1992/
The scenes in Baku tonight. 1993/
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Another video of protestors in Armenia’s parliament. 1994/
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Another video of the celebration in Baku. 1995/
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Video of the protestors in Armenia’s Parliament building. 1996/
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Russian peacekeepers loading up on an Il-76 on their way to Karabakh. There’s a military police UAZ Patriot jeep and what appears to be paratroopers. 1997/
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The scenes from Baku. 1998/
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Nikol Pashinyan says that Ararat Mirzoyan, Armenia’s speaker of parliament, is currently undergoing surgery after being attacked by a mob tonight. 1999/
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2000/
Interfax's sources say that Russia and Turkey will establish a joint monitoring center to monitor the ceasefire in Karabakh. 2001/
interfax.ru/world/736347
As of 06:00 Moscow time, Russia has begun deploying its peacekeepers to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone. 2002/
tass.com/defense/1221777
2003/
Crazy that this occurred today when all three sides were so close to signing the peace agreement. Another example of how decisions made by junior people can have a strategic-level effect. Talk about a strategic corporal or lieutenant moment. 2004/
Photos from tonight’s protest in Yerevan. 2005/
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I'm going to post a few videos that happened earlier today before the peace agreement. First, the Armenian MoD posted another UAV (likely from an Orlan-10) video of Az forces near Karin Tak/Dashalty coming under artillery fire. 2006/
2007/
Armenian sources also published a photo reportedly of Az forces in the direction of Lachin coming under artillery fire. 2008/
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Azerbaijan also published a TB2 video earlier today showing artillery strikes on an NKR defensive position near Khojavend/Martuni. 2009/
mod.gov.az/en/news/artill…
Another TB2 video published by Azerbaijan before the peace agreement today of an NKR Osa 9A33BM TELAR near Khojavend/Martuni being struck by a munition. 2010/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-en…
Azerbaijan also published another video of a loitering munition strike on an NKR truck earlier today. 2011/
t.me/karabah_news/3…
2012/
2013/
2014/
The Russian MoD said that 6 Il-76 military transport aircraft with Russian servicemen and equipment have already taken off from Ulyanovsk bound for Karabakh. 2015/
interfax.ru/russia/736358
The 1st screenshot is from a video that made its way to Facebook/Telegram on Nov 7th, which showed Armenian troops north of Shusha/Shushi shooting towards the city. The 2nd screenshot was from Nov 5 on the road out of Lachin. 2016/
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From NKR President Arayik Harutyunyan. Interesting point about COVID, which was likely an even bigger issue considering how many older men were fighting for NKR than for a normal military. 2017/ Image
There were a number of smart people who said that the battle for Shusha/Shushi was the decisive battle of the campaign, given its significance to Azerbaijan and its location and terrain. They appear to have been correct. 2018/
2019/
Video showing elements from the TsVO's 15th Motorized Rifle (Peacekeeping) Brigade headed to Ulyanovsk before flying to Karabakh with Tigr-M, BTR-82A, and Ural-4320 vehicles. Note, the BTR-82A have "peacekeeping forces" (МС) signs on the side. 2020/
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Video of Russian peacekeepers driving out of Goris towards Karabakh. 2021/
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The celebration continues in the morning in Baku. 2022/
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Another video of servicemen and BTR-82A, Tigr-M, and Ural and KAMAZ trucks from the Central Military District's 15th Motorized Rifle (Peacekeeping) Brigade loading onto Il-76 transport aircraft in Ulyanovsk destined for Karabakh. 2023/
Video of Il-76 transport aircraft carrying servicemen and equipment from the Central Military District's 15th Motorized Rifle (Peacekeeping) Brigade taking off from Ulyanovsk destined for Karabakh. 2024/
Excerpts of NKR President Arayik Harutyunyan's speech today. He said that the fighting was only 2-3km from Stepanakert, "If the fighting continued at that pace, we would lose Artsakh within days" 2025/
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Zvezda says that the 9th Il-76 transport aircraft has taken off from Ulyanovsk with elements from the 15th Motorized Rifle (Peacekeeping) Brigade destined for Karabakh. 2026/
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Video from Semyon Pegov showing where the Armenian/NKR front line is in relation to Shusha/Shushi in the distance. This is the terrain that would have been fought over had the two sides not signed the peace agreement yesterday. 2027/
View of the cathedral in Shusha/Shushi from the Armenian/NKR front line, an NKR T-72 tank, and a Russian-made ORSIS T-5000 sniper rifle. The weather is very clear today, which would have made the TB2 a huge threat without the peace agreement. 2028/
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Armenian riot police are out protecting government buildings after last night’s protest. 2029/
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Video from Stepanakert this morning. One can imagine the damage TB2 would have done today with that weather. 2030/
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2031/
One of the interesting questions will be whether Harutyunyan or Pashinyan was the driving force behind this deal. 2032/
Video of Armenian riot police protecting the Armenian Parliament building after last night’s protests. 2033/
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From the peace agreement published by the Kremlin, the Lachin Corridor will be 5km wide and will be under the control of Russian peacekeepers and will ensure the connection between Armenia and Karabakh. It will not include Shusha/Shushi. 2034/
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So elements from the 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade have arrived at the airfield in Ulyanovsk destined for Karabakh. That means the previous servicemen we saw flying to Karabakh are likely paratroopers from the VDV's 31st Air Assault Brigade. 2035/
tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/co…
So the Kremlin's text also differs from the document released last night as it doesn't mention the return of Armenian held territory in Gazakh District. The Russian MFA's Maria Zakharova wouldn't confirm the accuracy of the text released yesterday. 2036/
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Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but Zakharova seemed to imply that only Russian peacekeepers will take part. 2037/
tass.ru/politika/99586…
The Federation Council's Konstantin Kosachev said that the peacekeeping operation will not be joint, only Russian, though he said that coordination with Turkey would likely occur. He said that, unlike Turkey, Russia is seen as credible by both Ar/Az. 2038/
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Regarding Turkish peacekeepers in Karabakh, Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, "There is not a single word about this in the text of the statement that was published. The three sides did not agree on this" 2039/
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Nikol Pashinyan claimed last night that he signed the peace agreement yesterday on the recommendation of the Armenian military who "insisted" he make such a decision. 2040/
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2041/
Another batch of Russian peacekeepers, presumably from the 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade, preparing to deploy to Karabakh. 2042/
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Column of Russian peacekeepers, presumably from the 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade, preparing to deploy to Karabakh with BTR-82A vehicles. 2043/
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2044/
Sign outside of the Russian Foreign Ministry in Moscow. Someone isn't happy with Russia's response to Turkey shooting down a Russian Su-24 aircraft in 2015 and Azerbaijan shooting down a Russian Mi-24 helicopter yesterday. 2045/
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2046/
2047/
2048/
Video from Stepanakert today. 2049/
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Russia's Military Transport Aviation is earning its paycheck today. The 14th Il-76 flight of Russian peacekeepers has taken off from Russia bound for Karabakh. 2051/
tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/co…
2052/
RIA Novosti says that Russia will send at least 22 planes with peacekeepers and equipment to Karabakh. 2053/
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Video showing 10 Russian BMP-2 IFVs and other vehicles on the road to Karabakh. 2054/
The flight of Russian peacekeepers to Karabakh is being coordinated and monitored by Russia’s National Defense Management Center (NTsUO). 14 Il-76 aircraft have already departed Russia with troops and equipment. 2055/
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The Russian MoD says that the 15th Il-76 flight has taken off with Russian peacekeepers and equipment destined for Karabakh. 2056/
tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/co…
Two-part video from the AP of the protests in Yerevan last night. 2057/
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Second part of that AP video of the protests in Yerevan, including in the Armenian Parliament building. 2058/
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2059/
Photos of Azerbaijan's deputy foreign and defense ministers at the Russian embassy in Baku apologizing for the downing of the Russian Mi-24 helicopter yesterday. 2060/
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The identities of the Russian Mi-24P crew members who were killed yesterday are crew commander Yuri Ischuk and Senior Lieutenant Roman Fedin. The third crew member, Vladislav G. was the navigator and reportedly survived by jumping out of the Mi-24P. 2061/
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Video of a Russian Air Force Il-76 transport aircraft with Russian peacekeepers and equipment landing in Armenia. At least 20 Il-76 flights have already departed Russia. 2062/
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Video of Armenian soldiers somewhere in the mountains with a PKM and RPK-74 with an optic. 2063/
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Video of Azerbaijani soldiers celebrating. 2064/
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Video of Armenian soldiers and an ANNA News correspondent rendering aid to wounded Azerbaijani soldiers. 2065/
Screenshots showing the Azerbaijani soldier's optic and what appears to be a M095 DPICM cluster munition. 2066/
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ANNA News said that a group of 150 Azerbaijani soldiers attempted to break through to Stepanakert two days ago but suffered heavy casualties. There are some photos of bodies I won’t share. 2067/
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2068/
2069/
Video of Russian servicemen and equipment, likely from the 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade, unloading from Il-76 in Armenia, including BTR-82A vehicles. 20 Il-76 flights have already arrived in Armenia. 2070/
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Russian T-72B1 tank in Karabakh. 2071/
Photo: Francesco Brembati/Reuters
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2072/
Russian peacekeepers and military police with KAMAZ trucks, BTR-82A, Rys, and UAZ Patriot vehicles departing Erebruni Airport in Armenia destined for Karabakh. 2073/
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One interesting thing to watch for is if Russian military police take on much of the responsibility for Karabakh. Military police are a new formation in the Russian military, and they have been used heavily and very publicly in Syria in less kinetic areas. 2074/
The speed with which Russia's VTA was able to deploy elements from the 31st Air Assault and 15th MR Brigades has been critical. Even if Pashinyan falls, Russian peacekeepers are already in Karabakh, which makes it difficult for Yerevan to renege on the deal. 2075/
Another video of a group of Russian peacekeepers at Erebruni Airport in Armenia before departing for Karabakh. 2076/
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Deputy Commander of the Southern Military District, Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov, has been appointed the commander of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh. Muradov was awarded the Hero of Russia medal in 2017 for service in Syria. 2077/
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Russian servicemen in Karabakh. 2078/
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Map from Kommersant showing roughly how Karabakh will look. The green will be the territory of NKR, the purple is what Azerbaijan seized (not 100% sure about parts in the north), the shaded purple areas are what Azerbaijan will control, and the roads.2079/
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Maps from the Russian MoD. They don't show the same territorial gains in the north from the fighting that the Kommersant map and some Azerbaijani sources have indicated. 2080/ ImageImage
More maps from the Russian MoD. НП stands for observation post and ВНП for temporary observation post for the Russian peacekeepers. Interestingly, this map shows Russian OPs in the Aghdam region of Azerbaijan, which wasn't mentioned in the accord. 2081/
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The Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff, Colonel-General Sergei Rudskoy, said that they plan on establishing 16 OPs and that Russian peacekeepers will be equipped with BTR-82A, Tigr, and Typhoon-K, and they plan on using helicopters and UAVs. 2082/ Image
The Russia MoD will break down the region into a northern and southern area of responsibility. The 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade will begin establishing the OPs in the southern area tomorrow. The first peacekeepers have already arrived and set up OPs in the Lachin Corridor. 2083/ Image
The Russian MoD map shows that the 2nd Battalion 15th MRB has established its command post in Goris, presumably to command OPs in the Lachin Corridor, and battalion CPs will be set up in Stepanakert and Martakert for the southern and northern areas. 2084/
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Rudskoy said that yesterday 27 flights from Il-76 and An-124 aircraft were made, which transported 414 servicemen, 54 vehicles, 8 helicopters, and 2 Orlan-10 UAVs, including the peacekeeper headquarters, 2 MR companies from the 15th MRB, and an MP, comm, and support platoon.2085/ Image
Today another 263 servicemen with 55 pieces of equipment/vehicles were transported, including the 1st and 5th MR companies from the 15th MRB, another support platoon, medical platoon, and mortar battery via 25 Il-76 and An-124 flights. 2086/
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Video of Azerbaijani soldiers in Shusha/Shushi. 2087/
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2088/
This is a notable line from Azerbaijani President Aliyev's victory speech. I'm sure plenty of other leaders will learn the same lesson from this conflict. Hard power still matters. Military power still matters. 2089/
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2090/
2091/
An Azerbaijani Telegram channel posted a video showing 50-100 NKR/Armenian soldiers' bodies along the M12 highway near Shusha/Shushi. NKR's leadership clearly knew the battle for Shusha/Shushi would be decisive, and they likely took very heavy casualties there. 2092/
Video of Russian peacekeepers with a T-72B1 tank arriving in Karabakh through the Lachin corridor. 2093/
Also from Aliyev's victory speech. Hard to underestimate the extent of the personal animus between Aliyev and Pashinyan. Jidir Duzu is a reference to Pashinyan celebrating the 27th anniversary of the capture of Shusha/Shushi in 2019 in the city. 2094/
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2095/
More Il-76 flights carrying Russian peacekeepers, presumably from the 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade, arriving at the Erebuni Airport destined for Karabakh. 2096/
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2097/
2098/
2099/
A profile of Rustam Muradov, who will lead Russia's peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh. He has commanded at all levels of command from platoon to combined arms army, including a recon company, the 242nd MR Regiment, and the 17th and 36th MRBs. 2100/
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He served in both Chechen wars, as part of the Joint Centre for Control and Coordination (JCCC) in the Donbass in 2016, and as a military advisor in Syria in 2017 for which he received the Hero of Russia award. He is also a graduate of the General Staff Academy. 2101/
While serving as the commander of the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army in 2018, then Major General Rustam Muradov gained notoriety for chewing out his subordinates from the 297th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade during an inspection. 2102/
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Video of the first of 8 Russian Mi-24 and Mi-8AMTSh helicopters being loaded onto An-124 military transport aircraft destined for the peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh. 2104/
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2105/
2106/
2107/
Videos of Russian Mi-8AMTSh and Mi-24P helicopters conducting test flights after arriving in Armenia. 8 of them will be used by the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh. 2108/
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2109/
2110/
Residents in the Kelbajar region burning their homes before leaving. 2111/
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Russian MoD Spokesman Igor Konashenkov said that a 2nd peacekeeping battalion arrived today in Armenia headed for Goris. Thus far, 56 Il-76 and An-124 flights have been completed, carrying 817 servicemen, 119 pieces of equipment, and 8 helicopters. 2112/
The 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade's 1st battalion's CP will be located in Stepanakert and the 2nd battalion's CP will be located in the Armenian town of Tegh near the border. 2113/
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A somewhat contrarian take from @CentreAST 's Ruslan Pukhov. 2114/
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Igor Konashenkov also said that the 15th MRB's 1st battalion reached Stepanakert today at 17:00, and Russia has established 10 observation posts in the Lachin Corridor and Karabakh, 4 of which are in the Southern area of responsibility. 2115/
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Another view of how Russia perceives the end of the conflict from Alexander Gabuev. 2116/
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It isn't possible to fully understand the recent fighting in Karabakh without understanding the context of Russian-Turkish competition this year in Libya and Idlib. NK was a region where Turkey was able to put Russian into an awkward position. 2117/
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Interesting criticisms from an NKR fighter translated by an Armenian-speaking friend of mine. He compares NKR's strong defenses in the north to the Maginot Line "like the French were wrong in the 1930s, we were wrong too" because there were gaps in the southern defenses. 2118/
He is speaking in Karabakh dialect, so my friend only gave me a rough translation. But he also stresses the urgency developing UAVs, better air defense systems, and precision-guided munitions. Hopefully, we'll get a full transcript of what he said. 2119/
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2120/
Video of protestors being arrested today in Yerevan’s Freedom Square. 2121/
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The scenes from the Kelbajar region as residents and Armenian military equipment leave the region destined for Armenia. 2122/
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Another video of Russian peacekeepers on the move. 2123/
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Photos of TM-62P2 anti-tank mines and MVP-62 fuzes recovered by Azerbaijani forces near Shusha/Shushi. 2124/
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Video of Azerbaijani soldiers somewhere in the forest. 2125/
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Sergei Lavrov: "No Turkish peacekeeping units will be dispatched to Nagorno-Karabakh. There is a clear provision on that score in the joint statement of the leaders [of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia on complete termination of hostilities in NK]". 2126/
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Armenian soldiers and BMP-2 leaving areas that will be transferred to Azerbaijan. 2127/
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Photos of an NKR T-72 tank, BMP-2 IFV, and 2P24 self-propelled launcher for a 2K11 Krug air defense system on the road between Shusha and Stepanakert. 2128/
Photos: Илья Питалев
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Video from yesterday of Armenians fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh and neighboring regions that will be transferred to Azerbaijan. 2129/
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Video of Russian peacekeepers arriving in Stepanakert. 2130/
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NKR released the names of another 37 soldiers who died in the fighting, bring the death total, by my count, to at least 1,258. Sadly, this number will likely continue to increase as the bodies from both sides are repatriated. 2131/
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Russian peacekeepers on their way to Stepanakert. 2132/
t.me/rian_ru/65039
Video of Russian peacekeepers and a Russian helicopter (looks like a Mi-24) making their way to Karabakh. 2133/
t.me/SputnikArmenia…
ANNA News posted a long video of the battle for Shusha/Shushi on November 6-7 and the aftermath from Stepanakert. The first part shows reservists and volunteers arriving at the front and the situation near Shusha/Shushi on Nov 6. 2134/
Video of the battle for Shusha/Shushi on November 7. The video shows NKR T-72 tanks and BMP-2 IFVs playing a central role in the counterattack, which they could use because the inclement weather prevented the effective employment of TB2. 2135/
2nd part of that video showing NKR T-72 tanks in action during the battle for Shusha-Shushi on November 7. Even though the weather gave NKR a respite from TB2 strikes and allowed them to use armor, Azerbaijani forces were able to hold their ground. 2136/
Video of NKR soldiers and mortar teams near Stepanakert firing on Azerbaijani soldiers after the battle of Shusha/Shushi but before the peace agreement. 2137/
Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS headed through the Lachin corridor. 2138/
t.me/SputnikArmenia…
Video of that damaged bridge in the Lachin corridor that was targeted by Azerbaijan early in the conflict. 2139/
t.me/SputnikArmenia…
Russian BMP-2 IFVs making their way to observation posts in Karabakh. 2140/
t.me/SputnikArmenia…
Russian BMP-2 IFVs taking a detour because the main bridge in the Lachin corridor was damaged during the fighting. 2141/
t.me/SputnikArmenia…
Video of that Armenian 9K72 Elbrus Scud-B launcher that was destroyed in Armenia in October by Azerbaijan. 2142/
t.me/kolorit_18/353
An Armenian MT-LB vehicle being transported out of Karvachar/Kelbajar.
Photo: Арам Нерсесян
2143/
 vk.com/milinfolive?w=… Image
Photos of Russian peacekeepers on BMP-2 IFVs in Lachin/Berdzor.
Photos: Илья Питалев
2144/
 vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImageImageImage
Photos of Russian peacekeepers in Lachin/Berdzor.
Photos: Илья Питалев
2145/
 vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImageImageImage
Photos of a Russian observation post/check point in the Lachin corridor.
Photos: Илья Питалев
2146/
 vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImageImageImage
Photos of an Armenian BM-21 Grad MLRS and soldiers and a Russian convoy in the Lachin corridor.
Photos: Илья Питалев
2147/
 vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImageImageImage
2148/
2149/
2150/
Video of Russian peacekeepers with BTR-82A vehicles at a check point in Stepanakert. 2151/
t.me/new_militaryco…
Russian peacekeepers traveling through Karabakh. 2152/
t.me/milinfolive/64… ImageImageImageImage
2153/
Look at a Plasan SandCat in the last photo. 2154/
So the 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade's 1st battalion's command post will be located in Martakert and its 2nd battalion's command post will be in Stepanakert. 2155/
"Armenians bid 'painful' farewell to monastery ceded in peace deal"
2156/
 france24.com/en/live-news/2…
Photos of equipment from the 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade's 2nd Battalion's 5th Motorized Rifle Company being loaded onto Il-76 and An-124 aircraft headed for Karabakh. 2157/
mil.ru/russian_peacek… ImageImageImageImage
Photos of equipment from the 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade's 2nd Battalion's 5th Motorized Rifle Company being loaded onto Il-76 and An-124 aircraft headed for Karabakh. 2158/
mil.ru/russian_peacek… ImageImageImageImage
Photos from the M12 highway that runs past Shusha/Shushi. I won't post the other photos, but there are a large number of bodies of NKR/Armenian soldiers on the road, which underscores how precarious NKR's position was after they lost the city. 2159/
rferl.org/a/mass-casualt… ImageImageImageImage
Sergei Shoigu said today that, over the past 3 days, 73 flights carrying 1103 military personnel and 1168 pieces of equipment were completed to Armenia. He said the Lachin corridor was take under control on Nov 10-11, and 4 OPs were established around Shusha/Stepanakert. 2160/
Shoigu said that Russian forces entered Stepanakert yesterday at 17:00. He said today Russian forces were setting up observation posts in the southern area of responsibility (there will be 9), and another 8 OPs in the northern area tomorrow. 2161/
kremlin.ru/events/preside… Image
President Putin said that the number of people killed in the conflict, including civilians, is more than 4k and more than 8k were wounded. He said the number of refugees is in the 10s of thousands. 2162/
kremlin.ru/events/preside…
Comparison of the planned Russian observation posts from Russian MoD maps published on Wednesday and today. Notably, the planned OPs in the Agdam region of Azerbaijan were removed from today's map and OPs are now planned for the western portion of northern area of Karabakh. 2163/ ImageImageImageImage
Video of Russian Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters escorting a Russian peacekeeper convoy to Goris and Stepanakert. 2164/
Video from yesterday of residents of the Karvachar/Kalbajar Region burning their homes and fleeing before the region is transferred to Azerbaijani control. 2165/
t.me/MstyslavCherno…
2166/
2167/
Video of a Russian peacekeeper column moving from Goris to Stepanakert. 2168/
tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/co…
Another video of units from the 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade making their way from Goris to Stepanakert. 2169/
It looks as though Russia's peacekeeping contingent brought RB-341V Leer-3 electronic warfare systems, which come with Orlan-10 UAVs. They can suppress mobile communications and locate cell phones and other communication systems. 2170/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… Image
Another video of a Russian peacekeeper column in Karabakh. 2171/
t.me/OnWar/11724
Possibly a Russian mobile command point MPUS-K that arrived with the peacekeeping contingent. 2172/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImage
Armenian residents of the Karvachar/Kalbajar region are reportedly digging up the graves of their family members to bring the remains with them before the region is transferred to Azerbaijani control. 2173/
t.me/infoteka24/113… ImageImageImageImage
2174/
Video of Russian peacekeepers arriving at the Dadivank Monastery in the Kalbajar region. According to Armenian Church officials, the monastery is under Russian peacekeeper control. 2175/
t.me/cilicia_projec…
2176/
Video from Martuni/Khojavend. 2177/
t.me/cilicia_projec…
Another video from Martuni/Khojavend. 2178/
t.me/cilicia_projec…
Video from Martakert. 2179/
t.me/SputnikArmenia…
The Russian MoD said that ~250 refugees have been able to return to their homes in Stepanakert after Russian peacekeepers arrived. 2180/
tass.com/defense/1223755
There was a march through Yerevan tonight to honor the soldiers who were killed in the fighting in Karabakh. 2181/
t.me/SputnikArmenia…
Video of the Russian peacekeeper checkpoint between Stepanakert and Shusha. 2182/
t.me/SputnikArmenia…
Video of Armenian residents fleeing Karvachar/Kalbajar before the region is transferred to Azerbaijan tomorrow. 2183/
t.me/SputnikArmenia…
Another video of Armenian residents fleeing Karvachar/Kalbajar before the region is transferred to Azerbaijan at midnight. 2183/
t.me/SputnikArmenia…
Close call for these Azerbaijani soldiers who came under Armenian artillery fire at some point during the fighting. 2184/
t.me/karabah_news/3…
Today's infographic of the observation and command posts for the Russian peacekeeping forces in Karabakh. 2185/
mil.ru/russian_peacek… Image
Lieutenant General Muradov, the CO of Russia’s peacekeepers in NK, said he is from Dagestan and ethnically Tabasaran but he has no relationship with Azerbaijan. He emphasized that he is a Russian officer and will complete his mission as intended. 2186/
t.me/SputnikArmenia…
Graffiti on the Ghazanchetsots Cathedral in Shusha/Shushi, presumably from Azerbaijani soldiers. 2187/
t.me/infoteka24/113… Image
Long video along the M11 highway that connects Armenia to northern Karabakh. You can see the destroyed 9K72 Elbrus Scud-B launcher, the bus destroyed by a Harop near Vardenis, a damaged bridge targeted by Az forces, and Armenian D-20 howitzers. 2188/
t.me/cilicia_projec…
Next part of that video showing a variety of Armenian military equipment being driven back to Armenia, including D-30 howitzers and T-72 tanks. 2189/
t.me/cilicia_projec…
Video from Stepanakert. 2190/
t.me/cilicia_projec…
Another video taken from Karabakh. 2191/
t.me/cilicia_projec…
2192/
Azerbaijan and Armenia exchanged the bodies of fallen soldiers today with the assistance of Russian peacekeepers. According to Sputnik, ~30 Azerbaijani bodies and ~100 Armenian bodies were returned. 2193/
ru.armeniasputnik.am/karabah/202011…
NKR released the names of another 44 soldiers who died in the fighting, bring the death total to at least 1,383. 2194/
gazeta.ru/army/news/2020…
1,383 is the current number of identified NKR and Armenian soldiers who have died in the fighting, but the Armenian Ministry of Health says they have examined 2,317 bodies of Armenian soldiers killed in the conflict, some of whom haven't been ID'd. 2195/
bbc.com/russian/news-5…
An Armenian opposition figure, Mikayel Minasyan, has claimed that the actual death total for Armenian/NKR forces is 4,750 (including dead and missing). The death total will likely continue to rise as bodies are exchanged. 2196/
bbc.com/russian/news-5…
2197/
2198/
Photos of Russian soldiers some with AK-12 and AK-74M rifles, Valdai 1P87 sights, R-187-P1 Azart radios, a PKP machine gun, and Rys and BTR-82A vehicles. 2199/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
instagram.com/p/CHk3GcIHSN9/ ImageImageImageImage
Russian peacekeepers with an Armenian soldier in Karabakh. 2200/
Photos: Максим Блинов
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImageImageImage
Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh. 2201/
Photos: Максим Блинов
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImageImageImage
2202/
2203/
Another 2 An-124 aircraft delivered 30 Russian peacekeepers and 10 BTR-82A to Yerevan from Ulyanovsk. 2204/
tvzvezda.ru/news/vstrane_i…
Another video of Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh. 2205/
tvzvezda.ru/news/vstrane_i…
Video of Russian peacekeepers driving towards Stepanakert. 2206/
Azerbaijan says that it has given Armenia a delay for the withdrawal of troops from the Kalbajar region until November 25. 2207/
Azerbaijani soldier with a captured ORSIS T-5000 sniper rifle. 2208/
vk.com/milinfolive?z=… Image
The Russian MoD's map of its the positions of its peacekeeping forces in the conflict zone. The Russian MoD says that it has established 25 observation posts in Karabakh and the Lachin corridor. 2209/
mil.ru/russian_peacek…
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=… Image
Video reportedly of Armenian Smerch MLRS firing on Azerbaijani forces. Not sure when this happened. 2210/
t.me/warjournaltg/8…
Photo of an Azerbaijani ATV in Shusha/Shushi. Looks similar to a Can-Am Strike-M4. 2211/
t.me/bmpd_cast/5074 Image
2212/
2213/
2214/
2215/
Personnel from Russia’s Ministry of Emergency Situations have arrived in Armenia. 2216/
t.me/SputnikArmenia…
Video of Karabakh residents returning to Stepanakert from Yerevan with an escort from Russian peacekeepers. 2217/
t.me/SputnikArmenia…
Photos of Armenian soldiers in the Omar Pass in the Murov mountain range. 2218/
t.me/sashakots/18224 ImageImageImage
Russian peacekeepers at the Dadivank Monastery. 2219/
t.me/anna_news/9655 Image
2220/
Interesting Foreign Policy article on the Azerbaijani-Israeli relationship from 2012. (h/t @StasSwanky) 2221/
foreignpolicy.com/2012/03/28/isr… ImageImageImageImage
NKR released the names of another 51 soldiers who were killed in the conflict, bringing the # of identified KIA to 1,434 by my count. Armenia's Ministry of Health said yesterday that the death total is at least 2,317, but they haven't ID'd everyone. 2222/
ru.armeniasputnik.am/karabah/202011… ImageImage
2223/
New map from Kommersant that shows the Russian peacekeeper OPs, the 2 main roads from Armenia into Karabakah, and the regions that will be transferred to Azerbaijan, as well as the road connection between Azerbaijan's Zangilan and Nakhchivan regions. 2224/
kommersant.ru/doc/4574041#id… Image
Russian peacekeepers at the Dadivank Monastery. 2225/
President Putin signed a decree yesterday awarding the three crew members of the Mi-24 helicopter shot down last week by Azerbaijan with the Order of Courage. 2226/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… Image
Thread on Pashinyan's interview with journalists today. 2227/
2228/
2229/
2230/
Something to mark on your calendar. There will be a lot of chatter in about 4 1/2 years when either Azerbaijan or Armenia can decide unilaterally to not extend the presence of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh. 2231/
The Russian MoD says that Russian peacekeepers and military police escorted a second convoy of 19 buses with 450 refugees from Yerevan to Stepanakert last night. An earlier convoy transported 250 refugees. 2232/
vk.com/mil?w=wall-133…
Russian peacekeeping forces have begun removing destroyed vehicles, demining, and repairing infrastructure in Karabakh. 2233/
vk.com/mil?w=wall-133…
Another 18 Il-76 and 2 An-124 flights carrying personnel and equipment from the 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade were completed to Armenia destined for Nagorno-Karabakh. 2234/
vk.com/mil?w=wall-133…
2235/
2236/
Russian peacekeepers in Stepanakert. 2237/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImageImageImage
Russian peacekeepers at the Dadivank monastery.
Photos: Давид Галстян
2238/
 vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImageImageImage
AP video from Karvachar/Kelbajar from Saturday. 2239/
t.me/MstyslavCherno…
Second part of that AP video from the Dadivank monastery. 2240/
t.me/MstyslavCherno…
A group of Armenian soldiers reportedly are refusing to leave the Agdam region. 2241/
t.me/OnWar/11753
The Russian MoD's map of its peacekeeping positions as of today. 2242/
mil.ru/russian_peacek… Image
2243/

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More from @RALee85

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Sep 21
Russian channels say that Ukrainian UAVs targeted the ammunition depot in Tikhoretsk, Krasnodar Krai.




t.me/bazabazon/31447
t.me/astrapress/647…
t.me/astrapress/647…
t.me/astrapress/647…
t.me/mash/57808






Video of an explosion. 2/
t.me/astrapress/647…
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Rob Lee Profile picture
Sep 10
Video of an armored column with at least 8 tanks and armored vehicles from the Russian VDV's 51st Airborne Regiment assaulting Snagost in Kursk oblast. It appears Russia was able to get the armored force across the Seym River, despite Ukrainian strikes on the bridges. @Deepstate_UA says the situation has worsened on Ukraine's left flank in Kursk oblast.


t.me/infomil_live/9…
t.me/DniproOfficial…
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More likely that the advance was from Korenevo.
3/
 t.me/DeepStateUA/20…
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Rob Lee Profile picture
Sep 6
"Iran has sent short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, a move that will give Moscow another potent military tool to use in the war against Ukraine and follows stern Western warnings not to provide those arms to Moscow, according to U.S. and European officials." @wstrobel @mgordonwsj @laurnorman
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"A U.S. official confirmed the missiles 'have finally been delivered'...

The shipment involves a couple of hundred short-range ballistic missiles, according to Western officials. Iran has a variety of such weapons, with a range stretching up to around 500 miles.

'This is not the end,' a senior European official said, noting that Iran is expected to keep weapons flowing into Russia"
.@AlbertoNardelli and @nat_droz also report that Iran has sent ballistic missiles to Russia.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Rob Lee Profile picture
Sep 3
Another Ukrainian FPV employing some form of incendiary munition on a tree line by Ukraine’s 42nd Mechanized Brigade.
t.me/PERUN_42/78

Videos from Ukraine's 116th and 60th Mechanized Brigades of FPVs with incendiary munitions. 2/


t.me/khornegroup/26…
hromadske.ua/viyna/230695-u…
facebook.com/60ombr/videos/…


The video from Ukraine's 116th Mechanized Brigade.
Read 21 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Sep 2
I think Biddle is right that authorizing the use of longer-range strikes into Russia wouldn't be decisive on its own, but I also think this is an unfair burden to apply to the delivery of weapons or restrictions. People often say sanctions are ineffective if they fail to deter or stop a war, but they can still make it more difficult for the target to wage that war.
Most of Russia's Su-34 glide bomb carriers are no longer operated from airbases within ATACMS or Storm Shadow range; however, the S-300/S-400 that struck Kharkiv yesterday would be within range of ATACMS, and air defenses have a priority ATACMS target in occupied areas. One of the main benefits of allowing HIMARS' GMLRS strikes into Russian territory after the Kharkiv offensive began was that Kharkiv gained a reprieve from S-300/S-400 strikes. It seems that is no longer the case.
Of course, allowing these strikes would help Ukraine hold the buffer zone in Kursk, which could become more difficult this winter. It's also worth noting that Ukraine's campaign of targeting Russian infrastructure is being accomplished with Ukrainian-built UAVs and missiles.
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Aug 22
Videos of Ukrainian air strikes in Kursk oblast on bridges and a platoon position with GBU-39 small diameter bombs.
t.me/ComAFUA/396
t.me/ComAFUA/397
2/
Video of a Ukrainian AASM Hammer air strike. 3/
t.me/soniah_hub/5701
Read 23 tweets

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