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Josh Wolfe Profile picture
@wolfejosh
Sep 20, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
1/ IMPROBABLE SPECULATION

Remember: Failure comes from a failure to imagine failure.

We believe covid originated via “zoonosis” in bats––and jumped to humans and spread.

NOW: Imagine a future crisis in which dogs + cats are the transmission vector...
2/ We already know our beloved companions in
dogs 🦮 + cats🐈––

ARE (or can be) carriers of virus
(from rabies to toxoplasma gandii)

see excerpt from this CDC report...
wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/16…
3/ So the IMPROBABLE SPECULATION (imagining failure)–

Scientists identify canine/feline spread disease, epidemiologists track dog parks + dog walkers as superspreaders, households infected, outrage follows––both against pet owners––and pet owners (gasp) against euthanizing pets–
4/ I say this because our justifiable moral outrage over the past few years shifted powerful spotlights (annually) from

GUN CONTROL > ME-TOO + GENDER > BLM > ?

‘Animal rights’ are ripe for activists, outrage, protest––especially if there’s an unsuspected disease catalyst...
5/ From the POV of covid––it does not wish us harm, it wishes only to survive + replicate.

The history of viral vectors via OTHER ANIMALS + living things around us is the history (and FUTURE) of our own survival...
nytimes.com/2020/09/19/opi…
6/ Over 60% of human disease come from other living things (including the HIV crisis) that originated over 100 years ago (and infected 2x as many people as covid ~71million––but it took HIV 10 decades and covid 10 MONTHS)

cdc.gov/onehealth/basi…

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More from @wolfejosh

Josh Wolfe Profile picture
Dec 5
1/Today at private investor gathering I pitched

LONG
Adobe (ADBE)

SHORT
basket of scientific publishers
Wiley
Elsevier
Springer Nature

AI overestimation oversold Adobe (down 40%)

AI underestimation along with 2 other catalysts is set to crack the oligopoly of publishers
2/ first $ADBE thesis then the short basket + weighting

reasonably clean dislocation in large-cap SW

Stock ~$325 (down ~40% from highs)

Mult compressed from ~40x to ~20x

EV/EBITDA ~11–12x (10yr low)

mkt sees "value trap" facing existential AI threat

I see category error
3/ I'll argue the consensus bear case:

"AI kills the seat" + commoditizes design

one AI-augmented designer replaces three

Adobe loses its moat, got disrupted, growth is slowing + it’s milking a hostage customer base...
Read 23 tweets
Josh Wolfe Profile picture
Nov 25
1/ We are ABSOLUTELY insanely lucky to be able to witness this conversation

MASTERCLASS in military + geopolitical strategy + Arab/Israeli conflict

@havivrettiggur's brilliance+ Dan Schueftan's realpolitik rationality

watch whole thing or pick any segment🤯
2/Key excerpts (summarized).
Hard to disagree with anything.

The Nature of the Enemy + "Barbarism"

The Definition of Barbarism: Barbarism is not just violence; it is a societal decision to value the death of the enemy over the lives of one's own children. When Hamas places weapons in tunnels but forces civilians to stay above ground during war, they are declaring that they do not care for their own survival, only the destruction of Jews.

The "Love of Death" is Literal: We must stop projecting Western rationalism onto enemies who openly declare, "You Jews will lose because you love life; we will win because we love death." This is not a slogan; it is a strategic doctrine that renders traditional deterrence mechanisms (like threat of death) ineffective.

The Danger of "Happy Wife, Happy Life" Geopolitics: The Western belief that economic prosperity ("a better life") leads to moderation is a fatal fallacy. The Second Intifada was launched when Palestinians had their best economic situation in history. You cannot buy off an ideology that considers killing Jews a higher calling than feeding children.

Culture is Deterministic: You cannot "de-radicalize" a society that does not want to change. Just as Libya’s failure is cultural rather than resource-based, Gaza’s failure is rooted in a culture where the only role models are those who kill Jews. The West’s refusal to discuss culture—viewing it as "progressive" to ignore it—blinds them to reality.
3/ (Summary continued) Strategic Realpolitik
Solutions are for Crossword Puzzles: In the Middle East, serious problems do not have solutions. The two-state solution is a fantasy for the "simpleminded." The only realistic strategy is combining "damage control" with the use of opportunity. If you are looking for a solution, you are looking for something that does not exist.

"Violent Maintenance" is the Only Peace: There will never be "peace" in the Western sense. There is only the constant destruction of the enemy's capacity to wage war. Israel must adopt a policy of "violent maintenance"—preemptively destroying capabilities (like factories and tunnels) before they can be used, regardless of the immediate diplomatic cost.

The "New York Times" Test: When fighting "barbarians," proportional response is a mistake. The response must be so overwhelming that it shatters the enemy's will. A good rule of thumb for Israel: "If the New York Times is not outraged, it's the wrong response.".

Western Aid Funds the Conflict: The West is funding its own enemies. Palestinians are the only refugees in history paid billions for generations to remain refugees. This funding teaches them that "behaving like barbarians" is a profitable business model that attracts French, British, and American support.
Read 5 tweets
Josh Wolfe Profile picture
Nov 6
1/ 🚨Today history in AI 💻+ biology 🧬was made!

CZI led by Mark Zuckerberg + Priscilla Chan who've admirably committed tens of billions (and the entirety of their wealth to CZI) has acquired Lux family co Evolutionary Scale––just 2yrs after it's founding at a great multiple...Image
2/ We first teamed w/ @alexrives cofounder of EvolutionaryScale ~10yrs ago

cofounding Lux family Kallyope (cutting-edge bioetch focused on gut-brain axis)

Alex had the prescience to see the future of bio was computer science + AI. So he got his PhD at NYU and then... Image
@alexrives 3/...then Alex went to Meta, built an absolute cutting-edge AI bio group and published work that competed with Alphafold/Deepmind.

I tried to convince him to spinout in late winter of 2022––but Meta was funding him too well...

BUT THEN! A twist of fate Image
Read 7 tweets
Josh Wolfe Profile picture
Oct 23
1/ why Quantum is BULLSHIT

"paving a path towards potential future"

like saying: 'Working towards possibility of maybe a thing that might one day be a breakthrough if a breakthrough were to maybe occur'

Here I assemble just 2005 to 2015 annual headlines or this BULLSHIT
2/ I could start in the 90s. But let's just go thru 20yrs of BULLSHIT

2005... Image
3/ 2006... Image
Read 18 tweets
Josh Wolfe Profile picture
Oct 8
1/ Revealing Lux's latest

a $101M launch of new cutting-edge biotech created from one the most important scientific breakthrus Lux has seen in many yrs!

NILO

control IMMUNE system 🦠
via NERVOUS system 🧠...

we stealth funded last yr before this NATURE paper got published👇Image
Image
2/ THE BIG IDEA?

Your brain has a direct hotline to your immune system.

Specific neurons in the vagus nerve detect inflammatory signals + then tell your brainstem to dial inflammation up or down.

When our team cut this connection immune responses went completely haywire!
3/ Here's HOW it works:

Think: biological thermostat for inflammation🌡️

Different vagal neurons respond to pro vs anti inflammatory cytokines (proteins that act as messengers in cell communication)

They relay this info to neurons––which then regulate the immune response...
Read 7 tweets
Josh Wolfe Profile picture
Aug 21
1/ Apple researchers just dropped NEW foundation model on BEHAVIORAL data from wearables.

Forget raw sensors—think steps, heart variability, gait

Trained on 2.5B hours via 162K people

Predicts age, sex, pregnancy, sleep like a crystal ball. Image
2/ Their new foundation model (WBM) trained not on noisy low-level sensor data––but on derived behavioral metrics via wearables

Outperforms raw sensor models in predicting sleep, injury, & infection.

When combined CRUSH it—predicting pregnancy w/ >90% accuracy. Image
3/ Contrarian take––Transformers may be overkill for everything

head-to-head on wearable data (Mamba-2) beat Transformers for health prediction. Simpler tokenization also won.

Lesosn: data’s unique physics (irregular, noisy)+ ignore the loud signals to hear the whispers––edge is in the architectureImage
Image
Read 4 tweets

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