3/ So the IMPROBABLE SPECULATION (imagining failure)–
Scientists identify canine/feline spread disease, epidemiologists track dog parks + dog walkers as superspreaders, households infected, outrage follows––both against pet owners––and pet owners (gasp) against euthanizing pets–
4/ I say this because our justifiable moral outrage over the past few years shifted powerful spotlights (annually) from
GUN CONTROL > ME-TOO + GENDER > BLM > ?
‘Animal rights’ are ripe for activists, outrage, protest––especially if there’s an unsuspected disease catalyst...
5/ From the POV of covid––it does not wish us harm, it wishes only to survive + replicate.
The history of viral vectors via OTHER ANIMALS + living things around us is the history (and FUTURE) of our own survival... nytimes.com/2020/09/19/opi…
6/ Over 60% of human disease come from other living things (including the HIV crisis) that originated over 100 years ago (and infected 2x as many people as covid ~71million––but it took HIV 10 decades and covid 10 MONTHS)
-Over 50% of small VCs will involuntarily exit as ~5 VCs are planning to voluntarily exit (IPO)
-Lux team has invested over half a billion dollars across 82 companies (new + existing) in the past few months…
2/
-Zuck’s “ Poachapalooza 2025”
-L&A (License + Acquihire) is the new M&A
-the AI capex surge (5% of GDP) ~ fiber-optic + router binge of 2000 tech boom (5.2%) and short step below sheet-rock bonanza of 2005 housing bubble (6.7%).
-Open source vs Closed…
3/great irony in frenzy for ARTIFICIAL intelligence––what’s acquired isnt hardware but HUMAN intelligence
-frontier of agentic Al not defined by model size-but what we can verify
-99% reliable agent degrades to 60.5% after 50 sequential decision tasks––each error cascading like cracks in glass
NVDA = 19% of that––and 42% of NVDA revenue comes from just 5 Big Tech co's buying GPUs:
Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Tesla
2/At recent lunch with LP who put Lux in business I talked about shift from consensus cloud inference (GPUs + datacenters + power) to on-device inference (memory + batteries)...
3/ This valued LP talked about CAPEX:
Meta, AMZN, MSFT, GOOG TLSA spending $560B by EOY 2025