A few thoughts on the recent Reuters report mentioning that "Iran and North Korea have resumed cooperation on a long-range missile project, including the transfer of critical parts." 1/9 news.trust.org/item/202009201…
What project are they referring to? Well, we don't know for sure but there are a few potential options. 2/9
The first one is Iran's apparent role in the development of North Korea's RD-250 engine clone which powers the DPRK's Hwasong 15 ICBM. Unfortunately, apart from a single treasury designation, almost nothing is known about Iran's role in the project. 3/9 treasury.gov/press-center/p…
The second one could be potential cooperation in the development of larger solid-fuel systems. The DPRK has alluded to a solid-fuel ICBM and Iran has a pretty ambitious and sophisticated solid-fuel SLV program going on. 4/9
So cooperation would make sense. However, the shorter range solid-fuel systems we have seen in both countries show very different design philosophies. So it's unclear how much cooperation has actually been going on in this field. 5/9
Another possibility is that 'long range' in this context simply means existing longer range systems the two countries operate. Both Iran's Shahab 3/Ghadr and the Khorramshahr are based on North Korean systems. 6/9
Iran has equipped both of them with precision guidance and, unlike North Korea, seems to have made the Musudan/Khorramshahr work to some extent. So again, some cooperation would make sense. 7/9
One important thing to keep in mind is that missile cooperation between both countries is not a one-way street. While Iran's early missile program was almost entirely dependent on the DPRK, Iranians later claimed they surpassed North Korea in the field of liquid fuel. 8/9
Whether that is 100% true is another question, but it is important to note that cooperation with the DPRK could take many different forms (Iranian assistance, true co-development, sourcing of components, testing etc). The times when Iran simply bought entire systems are over. 9/9
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Quick thread on the alleged Shahed production site identified by the US in the Special Economic Zone of Alabuga in Tatarstan 55.821215° 52.051971°
Back in February, @TheGoodISIS already identified the Russian UAV company Abatros LLC as a potential Shahed manufacturer and there are a few more indications this could indeed be the case. isis-online.org/isis-reports/d…
The location given on Albatros’ official website seems suspiciously close to the site identified by the US (construction not yet visible on the older Yandex picture) alb.aero/development/
Iran’s Turbine Engines Manufacturing Industries (TEM) – the entity responsible for the overhaul and production of regular jet engines as well as production of the miniaturized turbojet and turbofan engines powering Iran’s cruise missiles.
Geolocation of testing footage of Iran’s Owj (J85) jet engine.
Geolocation of exterior footage included in a 2000s documentary.
Confidence isn’t 100% but I think I geolocated Iran’s new solid propellant plant inaugurated back in February. Quick thread going through the data points.
Footage of the inauguration includes a single, albeit very limited, outside shot showing parts of the facility.
The round platform hosting a commemorative plaque does seem to match this structure seen at a section of the Parchin complex 35.564362° 51.779753°
As an analyst you sometimes miss the forest for the trees. Remember this 2014 exhibition on the ‘Achievements of the IRGC-ASF’? Well, it turns out this title is meant to be taken literally, with the systems on display all appearing to be developed by the IRGC itself. Thread.
In 2014, the IRGC-ASF organized an exhibition for no other than the Supreme Leader and displayed a mix of well-known and new systems in the field of UAVs, SAMs and surface-to-surface missiles in the process. leader.ir/en/pictures/al…
New stuff included one of Iran’s RQ-170-inspired UAVs, the Ya Ali cruise missile, precision-guided Zelzal and Fajr 5 versions and the mysterious delta loitering munition, that later made a spectacular reappearance during the Aramco attacks (expertly spotted by @arawnsley then)
A quick thread on a pretty unique Iranian weapons system: Iran's HESA Karrar anti-aircraft suicide drone.
Now you might remember that in 2010, Iran unveiled a pretty odd system called HESA Karrar. Iran claimed the Karrar could be used as both a target drone and a high-speed UCAV to drop unguided bombs.
The Karrar was so unconventional that many doubted it would serve as a UCAV. However in the years that followed, the Karrar was seen in action in a few maneuvers confirming its combat role.