This is great: mcimaps.com/what-if-the-el…
If electoral college ties, Trump is heavily favored. But Dems have outside shot at getting House to deadlock.
How?
1) hold now-Dem/tied delegations, plus
2) TWO of following:
—flip #MTAL
—flip #AKAL
—net 1 in FL
—net 1 in KS
—net 5 in TX
If electoral college ties, Trump is heavily favored. But Dems have outside shot at getting House to deadlock.
How?
1) hold now-Dem/tied delegations, plus
2) TWO of following:
—flip #MTAL
—flip #AKAL
—net 1 in FL
—net 1 in KS
—net 5 in TX
The biggest problem for Biden revealed by @mcimaps's analysis isn't that the conditions outlined there are impossible. Rather, it's that they're especially implausible in a world in which Trump does well enough to tie the electoral college.
If all those conditions still happened to be fulfilled, then Senate would be voting for a VP who may be elevated to the presidency -- & that's the *next* Senate voting with the *current* vice-president's tie-breaking vote. (And 50/50 does seem a plausible result for Nov. 3.)
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