Right Trading Psychology - Role of conviction on ur process & practical way to build it
In my early days
trading wasn’t making progress
I had no idea if my approach would work
Does it have a high probability or not
Took a big leap when I started to learn coding
Thread 1//22
Once I started coding,
I started mechanically checking the set ups I use
Surprisingly I found that I oversee majority of the failure set ups
& end up understanding am playing on low probability set ups
I was betting more on hope than on fact.
2//22
That forced me to test everything before executing
becz
I knew I tend to see what am looking for
Not what actually was there in front of me.
Then
I went on to test
3//22
If a strategy is viable
Does it have high RR historically?
Does it work on all scrips?
If not, what scrips comply with it?
Does it give movement fast enough or just spike near to market close
Is it scalable or not
If scalable, what scrips comply with that?
4//22
For scaling up, what r the optimum position size at various stages
How many times potentially scale up can be done in one trade on an average
Is it viable to scale out or needs to exit in one go
What r the scrips needs to manage with all in/all out in one go
5//22
Does it obey any TSL method?
How does it work in different market conditions?
How many of the signals are getting avoided in range bound market
What are the chances to escape from a major market counter move?
6//22
Does that performance improves in recent times compared to former period
How much maximum position size can be attempted with each scrips?
If movement doesn’t come after entry, the time period beyond which it won’t come (time stop)
7//22
The optimum RR against strike rate
The scrips which hits SL frequently
Demand conditions in market where signals end up as traps
(these are just example parameters.
I personally test few other factors as well.
I woulld like to keep them with myself)
8//22
Even the minutest details were put to the test
Which resulted in the trust I had on my approach.
Now, I know the tools, methods and strategies I use for
Entry, SL and exit
Scaling in/ scaling out
Risk management
Position sizing
Compounding
9//22
stood the test of time in the market and have higher chances to do the same.
Hence whenever things aren’t going my way
I know there is nothing to panic
Just needs to avoid making mistake, rest are already taken care of.
10//22
"Behind every heart breaking story in stock market,
there is a senseless mistake
which was committed out of ignorance"
The moral is conviction and trust on urself and ur process
Develops thru a thorough mechanical process.
Thats what lead to right trading psychology.
11//22
Right trading psychology is not about reading motivational messages, meditation,
Or reading psychology books
Look thoroughly,
All motivational messages are mere justification to the mistakes u r making
& helps only 2 stay in that delusion of "U r not wrong at all" again
12//22
The way I know trading psychology has nothing to do with ur mental strength
It has much to do with Ur coding skills/backtesting than with ur mental strength
It’s the result of the trust u develop on the process u r formulated
13//22
Make it completely mechanical,
make sure that everything is tested for the viability
There by removing even the traces of self-doubt
Nothing remains to blame anymore
14//22
Now when things arent going ur way, u are self assured that u r betting on high probability which has a procen record.
That stable assurance on ur process removes lot of stress from ur trading
Now, u r in the right mindset
15//22
If u look around,
u would c many traders around u would preach about the importance of screen time
&
y u shouldn’t use scanners/mechanical trading systems
They will advise u instead of opting for the scanner
u should prefer to scan with ur eyes
&
develop required skill
16//22
Imagine,
in the past when computers were introduced in India, thr were lot of protests against it blaming that people will lose job & unemployment would increase.
Now think about a world whr it was accepted
We would have been at least 50 years behind the rest of the world
17//22
So do not commit to the mistake,
that the tools & methods existed 10 years back
& even if it’s popular even now,
of being comfortable with what u know,
refusing to learn new things.
18//22
Pretty soon they will be outdated
Coding skills u should have learned yesterday
If u didn’t, then start now, start today
U r not late yet
A person who lacks a definitive method of back testing his process inside out
is just throwing blind
&
destined to perish
19//22
Alternative method is go for
thorough manual back testing of strategy,
scale up potential,
ideal RR
&
compounding prospects with the method.
It’s hectic and time consuming. But it’s doable
20//22
At present,
if any new idea clicks in my brain,
all it takes is 15-20 minutes for me to check if it’s viable
If found not viable, ditch it
If found interesting then, it goes thru the above mentioned process.
Once passes, put it under the fire test by the market.
21//22
The trust and conviction u develop this way is called Right Trading Psychology.
(thr may exist other ways to develop healthy trading psychology.
Dont just deny its exixtance if u do not know abt it.
From person to person, how to acheive it may differ.
Be open to ideas)
22/22
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Pullback trading - trading an instrument when there is a weakness in the major Trend. For example suppose a stock is going up since last more than 80 days & is trading close to multi year highs it can be considered to b in upTrend.
1/18
As an additional confirmation one can make sure that moving average are perfectly aligned according to their length; 20>50>100>200. These two conditions filter all the stocks which are in bullish trends in medium term. This is where one stock qualifies for pullback trading.
2/18
One should avoid penny, illiquid and circuit mover stocks. Scan for stocks with price >20 and average daily volume > 100000 and also there should not be any open circuit freeze in recent past. This will remove nearly all the untradable stocks from WL.
The scrip has given an almighty breakout into new ATH last month and this month its being pulled back substantially. Here first criteria of strong bullish trend in HTF is satisfied with a fresh ATH breakout.
Step 2: Chk weekly TF to assess the details of breakout
2/7
1. BO is from an inv. H&S pattern 2. There was 3WTC pattern just prior to BO 3. BO had a strong follow up week with higher ROC 4. Pocket picot volume on BO and follow up bars 5. Pullback lack volume and last bar is bullish pinbar
Its simply an approach by means of which a trader is able to make most logical decisions and act precisely upon it. There is nothing else to it
How to build it?
It varies from one trader to another. I will exemplify one of my friend here
1/7
He had severe issues with cutting his loss. He will just keep holding it hoping for a reversal to wipe off his loss. He never take SL.
But he found a seemingly stupid but practically wonderful solution to it.
Instead of SL hit , he started thinking "Sunny Leon hit"
2/7
It was around that time Sunny Leon started acting in main stream movies as well. He just gave a definition to SL so that he is not scared of it any more, rather likes it very much.
What happened is that he wasnt worried about cutting loss anymore.
3/7
Most traders conceive that strongest chart patterns are the ones which are most visually convincing. They are pushed to think those patterns offer high probability trades.
But the truth is patterns are just consolidations where trend continuation demands accumulation
1/8
and reversal demands distribution (uptrend case). This criteria has nothing to do with how the pattern looks to ur eyes. Trend continuation patterns starts with profit booking where price might dip with comparably big red bars which fizzles out faster.
2/8
Price reaches a point where buyers find it as fair value. It's here price starts accumulation. Price makes sideways trendless move here till supply no longer able to contain price inside the range. It's here demand finds further strength and price goes up.
3/8
Look at the table below. Its bid/ask table for an imaginary stock
CMP is 149.90
Highest bid is at 150 and lowest ask is at 150.
So the next trade will happen at 150 increasing the price.
But buy orders for 2500 quantity are there at 150 while there is only 200 quantity to sell.
What will happen now?
There are 2300 pending buy order at 150 with all the asks at 150 os exhausted. They will have to buy at next best ask level which is 151.
2/6
He will buy all the 150 number of shares available at 151. Now the price increased again
CMP 151 with huge quantity to buy but poor qunatity to sell
Price movement depends on how rushed or agressive either parties are
3/6
When a conceptual content is posted in Twitter, how would u treat It?
Absolutely all the info can b tweeted as one liner punch dialogue. But some topics, some handles, sometimes posted as fairly lengthy threads.
Where does it differ??
What does it offer??
Suppose I post a lengthy thread in 10 tweets, what I attempt is to provide a primer on the subject. Putting it more simply, its like a 7min Highlights of a 7hr ODI match.
Similarly a thread gives u a very good idea about a topic so that u get a fair understanding on it
2/11
It helps u to decide.
If u found it not good enough, u can leave it then & there.
But If it's suitable to ur trading, then u need to go through the reference books, videos and blogs to dig it in deep and study it in-depth.