Well, it's that time again to talk about the Spanish banks (I could talk about all banks in Europe but I'll choose Spain since I know it better and they are the worst).
The Spanish summer of tourist revenues was cut short and was very bad over all. The window of opportunity to
rebuild cash flows for business and households has passed. COVID complications will cause more economic pain and The Insolvency will become prevalent over the autumn and winter.
Last week the EU gave $73bn in help for the EU banks but that failed - they are down 14% since then.
But in Spain... yikes. Banco Sabadell is about to break key support
Santander is a total shit show...
It is about to take out its ALL TIME LOW, set back in 1992.
BBVA looks equally bad...
And remember the Cliff of Death? Its down over 50% since breaching that...
The merger of Caixa and Bankia just turns an ok bank into a shit bank. I still continue to fear that a large part of the equity of the EU banks is going to zero and ends up in state hands.
Meanwhile, the Ibex looks like a horror story...
It doesn't feel like the right time to be record-long the Euro... but that is the markets position, or therein there-a-bouts.
Welcome to The Insolvency.
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We are very close to being in the Last Chance to Add Zone in crypto. The next step should be the memes breaking out and after that there is nothing to do but wait to take lifestyle chips off the table.
These are the three most important charts in Global Macro, along with Crypto - from this months Global Macro Investor publication:
1. Demographics are destiny. GDP slows over time as size of labour force shrinks.
2. Government Debt to GDP ratio is just a function of the working population. It offsets the weak growth and pays for the compunding interests on the debts. This is THE most important chart in macro.
3. That debt is serviced via debasement via liquidity increases over time.
$SUI is actiing like it is going to be one of the key Chosen Ones of the major new chains, if not THE Chosen One...
The chart has broken out of the inverse head and shoulders, which is an important first step. 1/
But more importantly, it has broen the downtrend vs $SOL (and all the top 20 tokens). Its relative strength in a sideways market is worth paying attention to.
But SUI is still in its early innings and the proof will have to be in successful appplications that scale built on top of the tech stack.
TVL is a small part of this and the Circle announcement is another good step. Gaming is a potential big breakout but still too early...
Sui $SUI is the groundbreaking ultra-fast L1, super efficient, full blockchain ecosystem that came out of Meta's Diem project.
The idea is that it is built for the scale of 4 billion people... i.e turning Web2 > Web3 1/
I have been looking for signs of the next big L1 mover by looking at the relative charts of many compared to each other and have mentioned this methodology on many podcasts....
$SUI is starting to look very interesting from a price perspective, although still early and unconfirmed, it is showing signs of breaking out against most tokens.