Matthew Thompson Profile picture
Sep 21, 2020 10 tweets 2 min read Read on X
So, are we all hugely overreacting? Some thoughts after chats with epidemiologists and statisticians this morning.

I can perhaps best sum it up in the words of one SAGE member who told me: "It's not that we're panicking now. It's that last time we didn't panic enough"

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Yes, deaths and hospitalisations are low. But there are signs that they are rising.

And the key thing to remember is that there is a delay. There are roughly 21 days between infection and death.

So if you're seeing a large increase in deaths, then you're already too late.
Looking at the number of deaths relative to cases is also a misleading game, because we are now testing so much more, and catching so many more cases.

So it is not correct to say "look how much lower deaths are relative to cases than back in March"

You cannot compare the two.
And this is where comparisons with Spain and France can be useful. They are further along the second wave than us, so it's effectively like looking forward in time.

And the data there shows that the death rates are increasing. Image
They aren't increasing as quickly, that much is true.

We've got better treatments, we understand the virus better, so that will affect the numbers of deaths.

But they are increasing.
And yes, overall numbers are low now. In Spain there are 2.3 deaths per 100,000 people.

Compare that to 24 deaths per 100,000 people back in April.

But Spain had the same number of deaths as it does now in late March.

Just 3 weeks later, it had hit its peak.
Exponential growth is fast. And it's better to get on top of it sooner rather than later.

The bigger the outbreak gets, the faster it spreads.

So delaying to see whether stricter measures are needed is self-defeating.
And also, as one epidemiologist points out, if the virus is spreading amongst young people now, the death rate will not be rising at the same speed as the infection rate.

As it spreads into older populations, which is likely, that death rate will rise a lot faster.
Now, having said all that, there is a case for optimism. One Oxford statistician said there is no reason to assume that exponential growth will happen.

The context is radically different. Back in early March Boris Johnson was still wandering the country shaking people's hands.
We are now as a society taking mitigating measures that we weren't before. But we can't be sure.

And the Government was badly burned by not doing enough, soon enough, the first time. It is understandable they would want to avoid making that fatal mistake again.

(Ends)

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More from @mattuthompson

Mar 8, 2023
I’m afraid Nick Robinson on @BBCr4today rather let Suella Braverman get away with it this morning.

He tried to pin her down on the lack of safe legal routes to the UK. She referenced the UN resettlement scheme.

But that is not relevant to the discussion. A short 🧵
It has to do with the distinction between refugees and asylum seekers. They are often fleeing very similar situations. But there’s a key difference.

Refugees are already legally recognised. Asylum seekers are not, and must make a claim. It is their human right to do so.
The UN resettlement scheme that Braverman referenced *only deals with legally recognised refugees*.

Often from camps in neighbouring countries to the one they’re fleeing.

People who come to the UK via this route are already recognised and do not enter the asylum system.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 6, 2023
NEW: Now that Wayne Couzens’ court proceedings have ended, @policeconduct have published their full report into a WhatsApp group of Met officers that he was part of, which shared racist, sexist and homophobic content.

A warning. Deeply offensive content

policeconduct.gov.uk/sites/default/…
Two of the members of the WhatsApp group, Joel Borders and Jonathan Cobban, were sentenced to prison last year.

They and four other officers were dismissed for gross misconduct.

Some examples of the messages follow.

Once again, a content warning.
A discussion on the WhatsApp group between Wayne Couzens, Joel Borders and Jonathan Cobban about Hounslow is truly eye opening in its open, virulent racism.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 6, 2023
Am at the Old Bailey today for the sentencing of Sarah Everard’s killer, Wayne Couzens.

He is already spending the rest of his life in prison, but will be further sentenced for three incidents of flashing.

The last of those occured just days before he murdered Sarah.
The sentencing is underway.

Couzens is appearing via video link from HMP Frankland, where he is serving his whole life sentence.

He is wearing a grey, prison issue tracksuit, and has a long grey beard.

The prosecution are setting out the facts of the case.
The first incident occured in woodlands in Kent, on 13th November 2020. A lone female cyclist was on a narrow rural lane, and Couzens stepped out, totally naked.

He proceeded to pleasure himself whilst looking at her.

She cycled on, and reported it to police.
Read 11 tweets
Jun 13, 2022
You can watch today's Court of Appeal hearing on the Rwanda policy live on YouTube, here:

The central argument in the appeal, currently being put forward by Raza Husain QC, is that Mr Justice Swift "erred in law" in his judgement on Friday, when he denied the request for a ban on Tuesday's flight to Rwanda.
The Court of Appeal has just heard that there are now only 11 people due to be on tomorrow's flight to Rwanda.

Today's @thetimes report is raised as evidence that it may even be in single figures.
Read 12 tweets
May 20, 2022
The NI Protocol, according to @SpeakerPelosi, must be kept because it "preserves the important progress and stability forged by the [GFA] accords."

Any US journalists want to ask her from me how she squares that with the fact the very institutions it "forged" aren't operating?
Like. It should be painfully apparent to anyone who is actually observing the situation in Stormont with a modicum of objectivity, that far from preserving the stability forged by the GFA, the Protocol is actually actively undermining it.
I say once again, I am not taking a position on whether the Protocol is desirable, or whether the DUP and others are right to be boycotting Stormont.

The fact is that they are. And they're doing so *because of the Protocol*.

So how can it be a guarantor of stability?
Read 4 tweets
May 19, 2022
BREAKING: The @metpoliceuk investigation into #Partygate, Operation Hillman, has concluded, the police say.

In total, 126 fines were issued.

@LBC
We now actually have some interesting information about the rationale and methods in the police investigation.

The Met say they do not normally conduct retrospective investigations. But exceptions were made for "flagrant breaches", as follows: When subject knew it was an offence  When not investigating
Operation Hillman involved 12 full-time officers, and the total cost was approximately £460,000.
Read 8 tweets

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