In the summer of '16 and again this summer, Pew asked what issues voters consider "very important," with SCOTUS importance rising 4 points among Dem voters and falling 9 w/ Trump voters:
2016
Clinton voters 62%
Trump voters 70%
2020
Biden voters 66%
Trump voters 61%
While the court was more central to Trump voters in '16, Trump also fared poorly in '16 polls on broad SCOTUS questions. The Oct. '16 NBC/WSJ poll asked which candidate would be better when it came to making SCOTUS appointments:
Clinton 48%
Trump 38%
Like everyone, I'm curious if this new fight will scramble the numbers - if R's calling this very important will spike, if the Dem number will ratchet up too, if there will end being a disparity between the parties, etc. But I also wonder what all of this is really measuring.
Like with all other issue polling, I think I basically wonder how much of this is voters who are already committed and motivated repeating back to pollsters the topics and themes they hear the most on their side.
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Here's a look back at primary nights from past NH campaigns, starting with 1980, when Ronald Reagan crushed Iowa winner George H.W. Bush and President Jimmy Carter defeated challengers Ted Kennedy & Jerry Brown:
1984: One of the biggest primary night surprises in NH history, as Gary Hart, a polling also-ran just weeks before, not only beats but wallops the front-runner, former VP Walter Mondale:
1988: The classic NBC music returns as VP George H.W. Bush, 8 days after his shocking 3rd place Iowa finish, bounces back to handily defeat Bob Dole and reclaim his front-runner's perch while neighboring state Gov. Michael Dukakis easily wins the Democratic primary:
Final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa GOP Caucus poll:
Trump 48%
Haley 20%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 8%
Trump’s share (48%) breaks George W. Bush’s record in 2000 of 43% for the highest support level in any final pre-GOP caucus DMR poll. His lead of 28 points also breaks Bush’s record of 23.
While Haley runs 2nd here, there are cautionary notes:
> Her unfavorable rating has soared to 46%, up from 31%. And her favorability has fallen from 59% to 48%
> 88% of Trump’s backers are extremely/very enthusiastic and 62% of DeSantis’s are. But the number for Haley is just 39%
One of Trump's key areas of strength: Those who say they will attend a caucus for the first time. This group tends to me much younger than the broader GOP electorate and in our poll breaks:
Of note:
*Massive generational divide on Israel/Hamas war; among 65+, 53% approve of Biden’s handling, 41% disapprove . Among 18-34, 20% approve & 70% disapprove
* Trump leads Biden 46-42% among 18-34-year-olds, a big shift from 2020 but roughly in line w/ other recent polls
The good news for Haley in the new CNN NH poll: She's up to 20%, in 2nd, and with Christie sitting at 14% there's at least potential for consolidation that could move her into contention.
The bad news: The overall dynamics are reminiscent of W/McCain '00
In 2000, when McCain blew out W in NH, he won indies 3-1. It turned GOP race into a Bush/McCain battle, but what did McCain in was that W used McCain's indie/Dem support against him, saying that the race was between a real Republican and one propped up by "mischievous" non-R's
Lost in the shuffle nationally last night: Republican Ed Durr, the truck driver who made headlines in '21 unseating NJ's state Senate President despite spending a just a couple hundred bucks, was defeated for re-election - part of a big night for NJ Dems: newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/bu…
In '21 - the first off-year election of Biden's presidency -- NJ R's gained 6 Assembly seats, 1 in the Senate & nearly upset Gov. Phil Murphy. Last night, they lost 5 Assembly seats and made no gains in the Senate.
And obviously a similar story in VA -- after a great '21, with Glenn Youngkin winning the governorship and his party flipping 7 House of Delegates seats to gain control of the chamber, Dems re-took the House while R's failed to flip the Senate.