Zeke Hausfather Profile picture
Sep 21, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
This article is deeply problematic for a number of reasons. Wildfire risk increased in western US is due to both climate change and poor forest management, much of which is down to Forest Service aggressively extinguishing fires for nearly a century in forests adapted to burn 1/4
Similarly, traditional logging activities do relatively little to reduce fire risk, as what regrows is often more flammable than mature forests. Best tools we have – thinning small trees and brush combined with controlled burns – are not econ viable for the timber industry 2/4
Traditional environmentalists are not without blame here; we need to ensure that pre-commercial thinning and controlled burns are not unduly restricted by environmental regulations. But laying our entire history of poor forest management at their feet is extremely misleading. 3/4
For more on climate change and wildfires, see: carbonbrief.org/factcheck-how-… 4/4
Also see this excellent pair of op-eds in the @washingtonpost last week:

washingtonpost.com/outlook/forest…

washingtonpost.com/outlook/wildfi…

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More from @hausfath

Apr 23
The first quarter of the year is off to an exceptionally warm start, as I discuss in a new Q1 State of the Climate Report over at @CarbonBrief:
⬆️ Warmest Jan, Feb, March, and April (to date) by ~0.1C
⬆️ 2024 on track to be warmest or second warmest year carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-c…
Image
Based on first three months of the year and the current El Nino / La Nina forecast, we expect 2024 to be similar to or slightly warmer than 2023. With only 3 months in we can't know precisely where the year will end up, but its virtually certain to be at least the 2nd warmest: Image
While the uncertainty bars have narrowed as each new month of data has come in, our @CarbonBrief projection of 2024 annual temperatures has remained mostly unchanged since the start of the year: Image
Read 5 tweets
Mar 2
February 2024 was the warmest February on record in the ERA5 dataset, at around 1.79C above preindustrial records.

It beat the prior record set during the 2016 super-El Nino by 0.12C: pulse.climate.copernicus.eu
Image
It wasn't only the warmest February on record – this past month saw the largest anomaly (change from the 1850-1900 preindustrial baseline) at 1.79C of any month on record, beating out December (1.77C) and September (1.73C) 2023.

The past 12 months are 1.56C above preindustrial. Image
Here are the temperatures for Februaries since 1940 in the ERA5 dataset, with 2024 highlighted: Image
Read 5 tweets
Feb 8
Despite today's grim milestone with the world passing 1.5C over the past 12 months, I see some reasons for cautious climate hope.

We stand both on the brink of severe climate impacts, but also on the brink of a rapid energy transition away from fossil fuels. Image
A decade ago global emissions were skyrocketing, and many thought we were heading toward a particularly dark climate future where the 21st century would be dominated by coal and global emissions would double or triple by 2100. Image
But something began to change: rather than continue their meteoric rise, global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels and land use began to flatten out.

Flat emissions still cause CO2 to accumulate and the world continuing to warm, but not as fast as we previously feared. Image
Read 13 tweets
Dec 7, 2023
I've been working over the past year on a promising new pathway to remove carbon from the atmosphere: Enhanced Rock Weathering.

With today's $57 million offtake agreement with @LithosCarbon the approach has gone mainstream:

A thread on the science:frontierclimate.com/writing/lithos
Over geologic time the amount of carbon in the atmosphere is determined largely by the balance of volcanism and weathering of silicate rocks (which largely come from volcanoes!).

Today around a billion tons of CO2 is removed from the atmosphere annually by natural weathering. Image
Enhanced rock weathering seeks to speed up this process, applying ultra-fine basalt rock dust (or other silicates) on farmland to achieve dissolution in years rather than centuries. Image
Read 14 tweets
Nov 3, 2023
Global temperatures in October smashed the prior monthly record by 0.4C, and were ~1.7C above preindustrial levels.

It wasn't quite as gobsmacking as September, but still comes in as the second most anomalous month in what has been an exceptionally hot year already. Image
Here is a comparison of October 2023 compared to all prior Octobers in the two leading reanalysis products: ERA5 and JRA-55. Note that HadCRUT5 is used here to help estimate warming since preindustrial: Image
We can really see the past few months stand out if we look at absolute temperatures (rather than anomalies): Image
Read 6 tweets
Nov 2, 2023
The claim by Hansen et al today that climate sensitivity is 4.8°C ± 1.2°C per doubling CO2 is just as plausible as the claim by Cropper et al four days ago that its 2.8°C ± 0.8°C.

Across hundreds of different studies, and our best estimate remains somewhere between 2C and 5C. Image
Given all the conflicting estimates, I'd strongly advise folks against glomming onto any single new study (particularly if it informs ones priors that sensitivity is high or low). Instead, we should synthesize all the different lines of evidence: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
I should really update this at some point as its ~5 years out of date, but I put together a timeline of all the published studies on climate sensitivity in the literature here: carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-…
Image
Read 5 tweets

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