Zeke Hausfather Profile picture
Sep 21, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
This article is deeply problematic for a number of reasons. Wildfire risk increased in western US is due to both climate change and poor forest management, much of which is down to Forest Service aggressively extinguishing fires for nearly a century in forests adapted to burn 1/4
Similarly, traditional logging activities do relatively little to reduce fire risk, as what regrows is often more flammable than mature forests. Best tools we have – thinning small trees and brush combined with controlled burns – are not econ viable for the timber industry 2/4
Traditional environmentalists are not without blame here; we need to ensure that pre-commercial thinning and controlled burns are not unduly restricted by environmental regulations. But laying our entire history of poor forest management at their feet is extremely misleading. 3/4
For more on climate change and wildfires, see: carbonbrief.org/factcheck-how-… 4/4
Also see this excellent pair of op-eds in the @washingtonpost last week:

washingtonpost.com/outlook/forest…

washingtonpost.com/outlook/wildfi…

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More from @hausfath

Jul 24
We just published our State of the Climate Q2 update over at @CarbonBrief:

⬆️ Now a ~95% chance 2024 will be the warmest year on record.
⬆️ 13 month streak of records set between June 2023 and June 2024.
⬆️ July 22nd 2024 was the warmest day on record (in absolute terms).
⬇️ July 2024 will very likely come in below July 2023, breaking the record streak.
⬇️ The rest of 2024 is likely to be cooler than 2023 as El Nino fades and La Nina potentially develops.
⬇️ Second lowest Antarctic sea ice on record.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-c…Image
The past 13 months have each set a new record, with 2024 being quite a bit warmer than 2023 (at ~1.63C above preindustrial levels) in the ERA5 dataset: Image
However, the margin by which records are being set has shrunk; global temperatures were setting new records by a stunning 0.3C to 0.5C in the second half of 2023, but have been breaking the prior records (set in 2016, 2020, or 2023) by only 0.1C to 0.2C this year: Image
Read 7 tweets
Jul 17
Global surface temperatures from @BerkeleyEarth are now out for June. It was the warmest June on record for land, oceans, and the globe as a whole by a sizable margin (~0.14C), and came in at 1.6C above preindustrial levels. berkeleyearth.org/june-2024-temp…
Image
This was the 13th consecutive record setting month, and the 12th month in a row above 1.5C: Image
The exceptional nature of recent global temperatures really stands out when we look at a 12-month moving average: Image
Read 7 tweets
Jul 3
Global temperatures were extremely hot in June 2024, at just over 1.5C, beating June 2023's previous record-setting temperatures by 0.14C and coming in around 0.4C warmer than 2016 (the last major El Nino event).

Now 2024 is very likely to beat 2023 as the warmest year on record Image
June 2024 was so warm that – in the absence of 2023's exceptional warmth – it would have beaten any past July as the warmest absolute monthly temperature experienced by the planet in the historical record: Image
This plot shows how June 2024 stacked up against all the prior Junes since 1940 in the ERA5 dataset: Image
Read 6 tweets
Jun 27
We’ve long talked about the carbon budget, but given that the world is on track to pass the 1.5C target in the coming decade its time to start talking about the "carbon debt".

My latest piece over at The Climate Brink: theclimatebrink.com/p/the-growing-…
Carbon dioxide accumulates in the atmosphere where it lasts for an extremely long time. While about half of our emissions are removed by land and ocean carbon sinks over the first century, it takes on the order of 400,000 years for nature to fully remove a ton of CO2. Image
But it turns out that the warming from our CO2 emissions is also extremely long lived. Even if global CO2 emissions ceased and atmospheric CO2 concentrations began to decline, the warming from those emissions would remain for millennia: pnas.org/doi/full/10.10…
Read 6 tweets
Jun 13
Recently we've seen a vibrant debate on when the world will firmly pass 1.5C.

Over at @CarbonBrief I weigh in with a new analysis, finding that it will most likely occur in the late 2020s or early 2030s in a world where emissions do not rapidly decrease. carbonbrief.org/analysis-what-…
Image
Global temperatures in any given year reflect short-term natural variability on top of longer-term human-driven warming. For example, a big El Niño or La Niña event can result in global temperatures up to 0.2C warmer or cooler, respectively, than they would otherwise be. Image
While there is no formal definition how the 1.5C goal is measured, it is generally interpreted to refer to long-term, human-driven warming.

For example, the IPCC uses the midpoint of a 20-year period as a way to avoid overinterpreting short-term natural variability.
Read 13 tweets
May 25
There is something of a genre of very online individuals™ discovering stratospheric aerosol injection and proclaiming it as a low-cost solution to climate change. Spoiler alert: its not.

In this case the thread uses a bunch of my figures so its worth responding.
Climate change is driven primarily by our emissions of carbon dioxide. We've emitted a lot of CO2: around 2.5 trillion tons since 1750, or the weight of the the biosphere and everything humans have ever built combined theclimatebrink.com/p/the-staggeri…
Image
This CO2 remains in the atmosphere for a long time; it takes well over 100k years for a ton of CO2 emitted today to be fully removed. The warming caused by CO2 also sticks around; a ton emitted today will continue to warm the planet for millennia: pnas.org/doi/full/10.10…
Image
Read 11 tweets

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