Jacob Rubashkin Profile picture
Sep 21, 2020 4 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Now here's an ad for you: Sen. Kelly Loeffler's new spot is all about how she's "more conservative than Attila the Hun," and includes an actor portraying a grunting Attila who delivers orders to, among other things, "eliminate the liberal scribes."
Again, this is the senator whose initial appointment last year was greeted with much punditry about how she'd appeal to moderate women in the Atlanta suburbs who were drifting away from the GOP and turning Georgia purple.

Now she's comparing herself favorably to Attila the Hun.
It underscores what a missed opportunity the special election could be for Democrats. Collins and Loeffler are both running so far to the right, there's a whole swath of potential voters in the middle up for grabs. If Stacey Abrams had run and cleared the Democratic field...
On the flip side, if Warnock manages to squeeze past Collins for the second spot in the runoff, as most Democratic strategists believe he will, then this race ends up at a *very* interesting January runoff, one that Democrats could have a real shot at.

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More from @JacobRubashkin

Feb 26, 2023
This Fox News poll has a ton of interesting information, including a GOP primary poll that underscores the difficulty and opportunity of beating Trump. At 43% he’s not invincible but that’s almost exactly what he won in 2016.

2/19-22, RVs, live caller static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/co…
Just against Haley, Trump gets 66 percent, so that’s a good indicator of his ceiling. As long as someone else is in the race, a quarter of the primary electorate will choose that person over Trump.
They may not like each other, but Trump voters seem to like DeSantis and DeSantis voters are alright with Trump.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 15, 2022
In the closing months of the campaign, DCCC/HMP spent $2.7m to defend Stanton in his Biden+10 seat (he won by 12) and $1.8m to defend O’Halleran in his Trump+8 seat (he lost by 8). But they spent just $1.1m vs. AZ1 and $0 in AZ6, two races won by Rs by a combined 6,511 votes.
^this is TV dollars, data from Kantar/CMAG.

Shows on the party’s priorities, incumbent protection and wave protection ranked higher than winning marginal open/challenger seats. The correct strategy to shore up against a red wave, but comes up short in a different environment.
Some of the post-2022 vibes feel a lot like post-2020 vibes when Republicans were sitting around going “Why did we spend $2 million shoring up French Hill (won by 10) and $0 against Lauren Underwood (won by 1)?”
Read 5 tweets
Nov 10, 2022
Morning majority math:

Beginning with our new baseline of R218-D197 (assuming both parties win outstanding seats they're favored in), we can add in the 12 toss-ups called for Ds and the 3 toss-up races called for Rs. That gets us to R221-D209.

Add CO-8 win for Dems: R220-D210. Image
Picking up CO-8, a Tilt Republican seat, was crucial for Dems. But it's not sufficient. They still need 8 more seats.

Let's break them down. First the 5 outsanding toss-ups:
WA8, OR6 (Dems lead but vote still out)
CA13/22 (gotta wait for mail)
NY22 (looking rough) Image
If Dems win all those but NY22, we get to 221R-214D. So Democrats still need to flip 4 seats GOP is still favored in.

Where might they find them?
CO3, where Boebert trails by 64 votes
OR5, where JMS trails but Clackamas County votes still out there
WA3, where Perez leads
Read 6 tweets
Nov 9, 2022
Some preliminary Dem majority math using final IE ratings. These have held up pretty well, and the math here relies on that continuing and Ds & Rs win the remainder of races they were favored in.

Ratings had Ds favored in 199 seats, Rs favored in 216. 20 Toss-ups. Follow along: Image
So far, the only upsets have been in NY3/4, Tilt D races won by Rs.

Accounting for those two races, our initial baseline is adjusted to 218R-197D.

Of the 20 toss-ups, 13 have been called, splitting 10D-3R.

So we adjust further to 221R-207D. Image
Of the remaining 7 toss-ups, Dems currently lead in at least 4 (CT5, NM2, OR6, WA8).

If we allocate those to Dems, we get 221R-211D.

If Dems lose everything else, that's how we get an R+11 upper bound result from the current 222D-213R breakdown in the chamber. Image
Read 6 tweets
Nov 9, 2022
In Georgia's Glynn County, we've got all precincts reporting. Herschel Walker leads by 27 points. In the 2021 special election, Kelly Loeffler beat Raphael Warnock... by 26 points. It's tight!
Oconee County, all precincts reporting, Herschel Walker leads by 35 points, 66-31. Kelly Loeffler won... by 36 points, 68-32 points.

Total votes 2021: 23,537
Total votes 2022: 22,276

Warnock won statewide by 2 points in 2021. It's tight!
In Union County in North Georgia, Walker is winning by 60 points, 78-18 percent, with all precincts reporting (total votes: 14,180)

In 2021, Kelly Loeffler won 82-18 percent (total votes: 14,167).
Read 4 tweets
Nov 9, 2022
In New Hampshire, we've got a couple towns that are close to completing counting: Concord (80%) and Rochester (86%).

Hassan leads by 38% in Concord (was Biden +32) and by 0.64% in Rochester (was Trump +2).
If New Hampshire comes off the board quickly for Hassan, expect Democrats to breath a MASSIVE breath of relief. This is a race that seemed to get tighter in the closing days.

Inside Elections rating heading into Election Day was Tilt Democratic.
Tiny Somersworth has reported almost all of its votes. Hassan leads by 18 points. Biden won by 14 points in 2020.
Read 4 tweets

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