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Jacob Rubashkin Profile picture
Jacob Rubashkin
@JacobRubashkin
deputy editor @InsideElections / formerly @NBCNews, @cnn, @cornellsun / Beltway born and raised / say hello: jacob@insideelections.com
Feb 26, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This Fox News poll has a ton of interesting information, including a GOP primary poll that underscores the difficulty and opportunity of beating Trump. At 43% he’s not invincible but that’s almost exactly what he won in 2016.

2/19-22, RVs, live caller static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/co… Just against Haley, Trump gets 66 percent, so that’s a good indicator of his ceiling. As long as someone else is in the race, a quarter of the primary electorate will choose that person over Trump.
Nov 15, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
In the closing months of the campaign, DCCC/HMP spent $2.7m to defend Stanton in his Biden+10 seat (he won by 12) and $1.8m to defend O’Halleran in his Trump+8 seat (he lost by 8). But they spent just $1.1m vs. AZ1 and $0 in AZ6, two races won by Rs by a combined 6,511 votes. ^this is TV dollars, data from Kantar/CMAG.

Shows on the party’s priorities, incumbent protection and wave protection ranked higher than winning marginal open/challenger seats. The correct strategy to shore up against a red wave, but comes up short in a different environment.
Nov 10, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Morning majority math:

Beginning with our new baseline of R218-D197 (assuming both parties win outstanding seats they're favored in), we can add in the 12 toss-ups called for Ds and the 3 toss-up races called for Rs. That gets us to R221-D209.

Add CO-8 win for Dems: R220-D210. Image Picking up CO-8, a Tilt Republican seat, was crucial for Dems. But it's not sufficient. They still need 8 more seats.

Let's break them down. First the 5 outsanding toss-ups:
WA8, OR6 (Dems lead but vote still out)
CA13/22 (gotta wait for mail)
NY22 (looking rough) Image
Nov 9, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Some preliminary Dem majority math using final IE ratings. These have held up pretty well, and the math here relies on that continuing and Ds & Rs win the remainder of races they were favored in.

Ratings had Ds favored in 199 seats, Rs favored in 216. 20 Toss-ups. Follow along: Image So far, the only upsets have been in NY3/4, Tilt D races won by Rs.

Accounting for those two races, our initial baseline is adjusted to 218R-197D.

Of the 20 toss-ups, 13 have been called, splitting 10D-3R.

So we adjust further to 221R-207D. Image
Nov 9, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
In Georgia's Glynn County, we've got all precincts reporting. Herschel Walker leads by 27 points. In the 2021 special election, Kelly Loeffler beat Raphael Warnock... by 26 points. It's tight! Oconee County, all precincts reporting, Herschel Walker leads by 35 points, 66-31. Kelly Loeffler won... by 36 points, 68-32 points.

Total votes 2021: 23,537
Total votes 2022: 22,276

Warnock won statewide by 2 points in 2021. It's tight!
Nov 9, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
In New Hampshire, we've got a couple towns that are close to completing counting: Concord (80%) and Rochester (86%).

Hassan leads by 38% in Concord (was Biden +32) and by 0.64% in Rochester (was Trump +2). If New Hampshire comes off the board quickly for Hassan, expect Democrats to breath a MASSIVE breath of relief. This is a race that seemed to get tighter in the closing days.

Inside Elections rating heading into Election Day was Tilt Democratic.
Oct 4, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Herschel Walker’s tiktok-famous son, who’s been one of his biggest boosters, now says he’s “done” with Walker’s Senate campaign. Interesting deleted tweet from Christian Walker, whose mother has said Walker “held the gun to my temple and said he was gonna blow my brains out,” among other accusations.
Sep 22, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
New FabrizioWard/Impact poll of ARIZONA for AARP:

Sen
Kelly (D-inc) 50
Masters (R) 42
Victor (L) 4

Gov
Hobbs (D) 49
Lake (R) 48

Generic Ballot: R48-D47
Biden approval 45/55
Fav/unfav
Hobbs 46/42
Lake 43/53
Kelly 50/46
Masters 37/54

9/8-15, 500 LVs
aarp.org/content/dam/aa… Seeing a lot of dunking on Katie Hobbs already in response to this, but, at risk of plagarizing @amyewalter, pay attention to absolute vote share: Kelly and Hobbs are basically in the same place, right around 50%. The difference in the races comes down to Lake vs. Masters.
Sep 13, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
It's nowhere near the national support that Tim Ryan's allies keep hoping will come, but the Ohio Democrat is getting some air cover from a Super PAC funded primarily by labor unions, including IBEW, UAW, and SMART.

Per Kantar/CMAG, $382k in September. If the election were held today, Ryan would have a pretty good shot at winning. So why do we have the race rated as we do (Likely R)?

Take a look at the reserved spending over the final weeks of the race:
SLF (pro-Vance): $25 million
Ryan: $7.9 million
Vance: $1 million Image
Aug 24, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Where things stand in NY-19:

As more vote counts trickled in overnight, Pat Ryan’s lead settled at just under 4 points, 51.9-48.1%. Absentee ballots have until August 30 to arrive.

Biden carried this district by a slightly narrower 50-48%. We had this race rated Toss-up. Definitely a mixed bag for Francis Conole in NY-22. He won, but by just 1,082 votes against a candidate he outspent 7-to-1 and despite receiving outside support from Super PAC and being named to DCCC Red-to-Blue. But the GOP nominated a flawed candidate. Top pickup opp for Dems.
Aug 17, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Good morning! While you were sleeping....

We got the first batch of Alaska votes. There's still about 30% still out there, which could skew more Dem, as it's absentee/from the furthest reaches of the state.

In the special, Peltola (D) leads, followed by Palin and Begich (Rs). Peltola is still under that 40% threshold she'd probably need to have a fighting chance in the instant runoff voting, should Palin secure that second spot. But the late-arriving votes should be helpful. And of course Begich is hot on her heels. We won't have RCv for 2 weeks...
Aug 12, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
It seems as though some have slightly memory-holed the many, many stories about the slapdash security situation at Mar-a-Lago during the Trump presidency?

From 2017:

politico.com/story/2017/03/… From 2017:
"Photos taken by private guests in the club’s public dining area showed Trump and Abe conferring and looking at documents while surrounded by their aides following Pyongyang’s missile launch."
reuters.com/article/us-usa…
Aug 11, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Here comes the cavalry in the Alaska House special...

Rand Paul's Super PAC, Protect Freedom PAC, placed a $235,000 pro-Palin TV ad buy for the final days of the election.

Polling shows if Palin places 2nd, ahead of fellow GOPer Begich, the Dem candidate has a path to victory. The path for Peltola is to snag a solid slug of 1st place votes (probably mid-40s, Biden got 43%), then hope Palin outpaces Begich, and enough Begich voters rank Peltola #2/don't rank Palin #2 to sneak past in the instant runoff.

Jul 22, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
In the MO-Sen Democratic primary, Lucas Kunce goes negative on Trudy Busch Valentine with an ad highlighting Busch Valentine's involvement with the St. Louis "Veiled Prophet Society", a St. Louis secret society which crowned her "Queen of Love and Beauty" in 1977. When @theintercept reported on Busch Valentine's role in late March, she issued a statement apologizing and "acknowledging my own past shortcomings." The society didn't admit Blacks or Jews until 1979 and has long been the target of Civil Rights protests.
theintercept.com/2022/03/30/mis…
Jul 22, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Does the person running this official account know that Sarah Matthews is, according to Legistorm and her LinkedIn, currently the communications director for House GOP side of the Climate Crisis committee? Paging Dr. Freud
Jul 14, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
🚨FabrizioWard (R)/Impact (D) poll of GEORGIA for AARP:

SEN
Warnock (D-inc) 50
Walker (R) 47

GOV
Kemp (R-inc) 52
Abrams (D) 45

Biden approval 34/65
Generic R 48-D 45

Favs:
Kemp 50/45
Walker 41/49
Abrams 46/50
Warnock 47/47

(500 LVs, 7/5-11, ±4.4)
ajc.com/politics/polit… Two diverging ways to read this poll:
1) Democrats have successfully used paid and earned media to drive up Walker's unfavorables, negating his biggest initial advantage of being a hometown hero
2) Warnock has spent $18 million on TV already and is only up 3 points
Jun 13, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Harry Wilson claims Lee Zeldin asked him to join his ticket as lieutenant governor. Zeldin says it’s not true, and accuses him of lying.

Wilson accuses Zeldin of lying right back, says he has notes from the conversation, and says Zeldin is acting like a child. #NYGov Giuliani says that if Eric Adams doesn’t rehire city workers fired because they refused to get the COVID vaccine, Giuliani will hire them onto the state payroll. Then calls Jan. 6 “political theater.”
May 10, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Fox News poll of PENNSYLVANIA Senate:

Oz 22%
McCormick 20%
Barnette 19%
Sands 8%
Bartos 7%

Barnette up 10% since March…

and gov:

Mastriano 29%
Barletta 17%
McSwain 13%
White 11%
Corman 5%
Hart 4%
Gale 2%
Gerow 1%

(May 3-7, 1001 RVs, +/-3%)

foxnews.com/official-polls… From earlier today on Barnette’s tweets about Muslims, including implying religious freedom doesn’t apply to Muslims and that Islam should be banned from the US >>
May 10, 2022 • 13 tweets • 7 min read
Mehmet Oz, the celebrity surgeon endorsed by Trump in Pennsylvania’s Senate race, could make history as the first Muslim US senator ever.

But one of his opponents, commentator Kathy Barnette, has a history of anti-Muslim posts on social media.

Here's a sampling...

(Thread 1/8) From 2014 to 2017, Barnette repeatedly posted on Facebook and Twitter attacking then-President Barack Obama by accusing him of being a secret Muslim and a terrorist sympathizer (also implying at one point that he was gay).

(2/8)
May 10, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Things are heating up in Alaska's House special election.

Three candidates began advertising on broadcast TV this week: Republicans Nick Begich III ($2760) and Tara Sweeney ($7445) and Democrat Mary Peltola ($7521). All on KTUU in Anchorage.

Here's Sweeney's ad: Sweeney was Trump's Assistant Secretary for Indian Affairs. An Iñupiaq (and a Cornellian!), Sweeney would be the first Alaska Native to serve in Congress.

So would Peltola, who is Yup’ik and a former state legislator. She is one of six Democrats in the race. Here is her ad:
Feb 25, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Is one-liners a required course at Ukrainian universities? In the grand scheme it’s insignificant but between this and:

-“Russian warship, go fuck yourself”
-“There is no purgatory for war criminals, Ambassador. They go straight to hell”
-“Put seeds in your pockets so at least sunflowers grow when you all die”

…they’re batting 1.000.