Looking back at '16, NBC/WSJ asked several times about how the Scalia seat should be filled:
February 2016
Vote on Obama pick 43%
Leave vacant & wait for new president 42%
March 2016
Vote on Obama 48%
Leave and wait 37%
April 2016
Vote on Obama pick 52%
Leave and wait 30%
Except after Scalia's death, the Trump/GOP position in '16 was broadly unpopular. It's remembered as successful because he won and more Trump voters cited the court as their top issue. But again what I wonder is....
....Were these voters who would have otherwise gone 3rd party/stayed home, or were they always going to be there for Trump in the end and were simply primed by GOP messaging to cite the court as their top issue in a way Dems weren't?
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Harris 54%
Trump 40%
---
For comparison, merged data from our pre-election polling of Latino voters in the 3 previous races:
2020: Biden +36
2016: Clinton +50
2012: Obama +39
There'd be no real parallel for Biden exiting at this point. He's the presumptive WH nominee (meaning: won needed delegates in primaries) and no one in that position has withdrawn in the modern era. For that matter, no major party WH nominee has ever dropped out.
Comparisons would be made to LBJ in '68, but he never formally entered the race; just announced that he wouldn't run after an LBJ write-in effort only beat Eugene McCarthy by 9 points in NH. And he did that before the remaining primaries (there weren't a ton back then) and 5 months before the convention.
A VP nominee, Tom Eagleton, was replaced in 1972 by Sargent Shriver just weeks after the Democratic convention. But WH nominee George McGovern was already hopelessly behind Richard Nixon.
Here's a look back at primary nights from past NH campaigns, starting with 1980, when Ronald Reagan crushed Iowa winner George H.W. Bush and President Jimmy Carter defeated challengers Ted Kennedy & Jerry Brown:
1984: One of the biggest primary night surprises in NH history, as Gary Hart, a polling also-ran just weeks before, not only beats but wallops the front-runner, former VP Walter Mondale:
1988: The classic NBC music returns as VP George H.W. Bush, 8 days after his shocking 3rd place Iowa finish, bounces back to handily defeat Bob Dole and reclaim his front-runner's perch while neighboring state Gov. Michael Dukakis easily wins the Democratic primary:
Final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa GOP Caucus poll:
Trump 48%
Haley 20%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 8%
Trump’s share (48%) breaks George W. Bush’s record in 2000 of 43% for the highest support level in any final pre-GOP caucus DMR poll. His lead of 28 points also breaks Bush’s record of 23.
While Haley runs 2nd here, there are cautionary notes:
> Her unfavorable rating has soared to 46%, up from 31%. And her favorability has fallen from 59% to 48%
> 88% of Trump’s backers are extremely/very enthusiastic and 62% of DeSantis’s are. But the number for Haley is just 39%
One of Trump's key areas of strength: Those who say they will attend a caucus for the first time. This group tends to me much younger than the broader GOP electorate and in our poll breaks: