@realmoney
Sep 21, 2020 | 02:45 PM EDT DOUG KASS
Whither Gold?
I originally purchased (GLD) in April 2019 at around $120/share.
The last sale is about $179 -- down by about $4.20 today.
I have traded gold well over the last two years -- probably engaging five times, possibly
more.
I don't have a position on but I want to have a portion of my portfolio in gold, but I have been laboring with what level I should be buying.
Here is what is keeping me from adding in today's schmeissing:
* The reasons to own gold seem too obvious -- the debasement of fiat
currency through expansive monetary policy and wanton fiscal policy.
* Sentiment is already bullish. My impression is that too many are optimistic about the outlook for precious metal prices.
* Everyone who wants to own gold might already own some.
* The peak Covid-19
pressure/panic is likely over, so gold could sell off hard on good therapeutic and/or vaccine news.
* How much longer will real interest rates stay so low? Probably not too much longer.
* If the capital markets sell off more severely (from here), gold might serve as an ATM
Plagarism! My Surprise @realmoney (written in December, 2023)... 1. Donald Trump is convicted of obstruction and conspiracy.
In an agreement between the former President and the current President, Biden pardons Trump in exchange for Trump agreeing to leave the 2024 Presidential
race. Governor Ron DeSantis finishes third in both the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries and drops out of the race -- with Nikki Haley capturing many of his supporters - closing the gap with Trump. Chris Christie drops out soon thereafter while Vivek Ramaswamy hangs on to the
bitter end. Nikki Haley becomes the Republican Presidential nominee
In early September, shortly after Biden wins the nomination, the President suffers a health emergency and, like Trump, leaves the race. If Trump indeed has left the race, Governor Gavin Newsom is selected as the
We are all aware of the Biblical and commercial aspects of Christmas.
Perhaps we should, as we approach the Holidays, listen to what that worldly philosopher, The Grinch, had to say:
“It came without ribbons! It came without tags! It came without packages, boxes, or bags!"
He puzzled and puzzled till his puzzler was sore. Then the Grinch thought of something he hadn't before. Maybe Christmas he thought doesn't come from a store. Maybe Christmas, perhaps, means a little bit more! And what happened then? Well, in Whoville they say That the Grinch's
Here is a preview of my 10 Surprises for 2024 to be published tomorrow on @realmoney
Surprise #1. Donald Trump is convicted of obstruction and conspiracy. In an agreement between the former President and the current President, Biden pardons Trump in exchange for Trump agreeing to
leave the 2024 Presidential race. Governor Ron DeSantis finishes third in both the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries and drops out of the race - with Nicky Haley capturing many of his supporters - closing the gap with Trump. Chris Christie drops out soon thereafter while Vivek
Ramaswamy hangs on to the bitter end. Nicky Haley becomes the Republican Presidential nominee. In early September, shortly after Biden wins the nomination, the President suffers a health emergency and, like Trump, leaves the race. If Trump indeed has left the race, Governor
@realmoney
A Key Theme of My Rosie Podcast Yesterday
* In yesterday's podcast I quoted Alfred E. Neuman, Bob Farrell, Lee Cooperman, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett, Ben Graham, Rousseau, Voltaire and Grandma Koufax in explaining my ursine market view.
Investors are unjustifiably discounting a "Goldilocks Outlook".
Given the wide range of outcomes (economic, political, social, geopolitical, and market) there are no certainties in an uncertain world.
As an example, expressed below in a tweet by Mohamed El-Erian, one major
concern we have is the foundering of China's economy - remembering that China has been the engine of worldwide economic growth:
Market participants have never been more leveraged and, arguably have never been as unconcerned with value and concerned
@realmoney Trade of the Week - Short $QQQ ($388.61)
With the "S&P Short Range Oscillator" surging to 7.33% at Friday's close from 4.93% - the overbought is now getting extreme.
The weakness we began to see late last week in mega cap technology stocks is likely to accelerate
into the next few weeks of December and early January with large tech holders in the "Magnificent Seven" leaking out positions to be followed by a lot of selling at the beginning of 2024 by taxable participants (pushing gains forward).
Moreover, this chart shows an unprecedented divergence between the Nasdaq and Central Bank balance sheets which could mean regress:
@realmoney @dougkass The Perpetual Liquidity Machine
* More thought on the dirty water of liquidity...
I think of the ginormous amount of liquidity the Fed created after 2007 as held in a huge flat pan - the world economy - with high sides. You tilt it to one end and
the water moves like a tsunami in that direction, you try to keep it from slopping over (to terrorists and Nigerian bankers) by tilting it back and another (hopefully smaller tsunami moves in the opposite direction).
Repeat that over and over again and over years and years, even
an enormous amount of excess liquidity will be absorbed although not a small amount will land with the grifters and con artists.
But it can and is taking a long time.
It is not, in my mind, dissimilar from what happened to Spain and Europe when large amounts of gold and silver