murali Profile picture
Sep 22, 2020 14 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Read this thread and then read about Belgian system(secondary) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education…
And the German school system here en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education…

What @svembu is suggesting is to ensure most children completing (vocational) schools join workforce immediately.
My main concern with NEP 2020 is that we have not shifted to the pure vocational school education system.
What we now are doing is to ask all students to learn one job.
No, we don’t want that. What we instead want is to allow students to choose as early as 12 years to choose path
What @DrRPNishank failed to deliver is a full vocational route for education, with an optional bridge course for those who pursued vocational schools to pursue academic studies later.
Essentially a German-like model.
The reason why our traditional guru-shishya paramparA had worked is because we were training students from a very young age. When they complete education, they were ready for jobs.
They could pursue specialisations under various gurus.
What we want is a set of schools that allow students to directly enter skilled jobs.
What we want is companies/proprietorships to hire students for job at age 15-18.
What we want is 50+% of students to enter workforce directly out of schools.
Only about 35% students really need to pursue higher education. If we look at number of students in professional education now, it’s about that number.
Or less than 3.5 crore people each year. Image
We don’t need bloated marks for 6.5 Cr students.
A significant number has already dropped out.
What we want for them is enough basic education so that they can enter job right away.
Some of them may want to pursue higher education later. We can enable that through open education
Of the 3.5 Cr, various professions are only having job opportunities in lakhs.
What are these people doing? What education is required for these people?
What is NEP offering them.
Let’s say sector X employs N lakh people.
Right now, govt doesn’t even have this mapping of X:N.
Next, let’s say annually M people join X.
We don’t know what the value of M is for any sector.
Government doesn’t have data for the organised sector.

93% of Indian work force is unorganised.
Government has no idea what these people are doing.
I don’t expect us to come up with a good education policy that reflects ground reality as long as our own government is unaware of what it’s citizens actually do for a living.

Even if government decided to categorise people, we do not know how many categories are there.
Our Education sector is in shambles because we don’t know that we don’t know.
To know what we don’t know, we will need at least 2-3 iterations(decades) of job census data.
To tailor an education policy we will need another 2-3 decades.
To actually see the results, we need 2 more.
Use of technology and a robust National Citizen Registry could probably help us do all this in 4-5 decades instead of an optimistic 6-8 decades.
A dedicated effort with zero politics may help us fix things in 3 decades.
I think I should have tagged this thread as #Education.

The thing is, this can’t be achieved by one @RahulGandhi or one @narendramodi or one @SitaramYechury.
This is a multi-generational project. Getting things done in two generations is a bhageerata effort.

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More from @muralipiyer

Oct 24, 2021
This is the trickle I expected to see.

@economyninja explains what else is happening due to the delay in ship turn around times. Mind you, most Chinese exporters are smart. They don’t ship until they get full payment. And most buyers stupidly pay upfront!
The kind of stories we have been repeatedly seeing.
a) foreign companies are steadily leaving china.
b) some think they are too invested in China, and they are talking China plus one.
c) Japanese, Taiwanese and Korean companies are closing in large numbers, mostly kicked out.
d) there is huge imbalance in container traffic. Trade imbalances are affecting shipping.
e) the shipping delays are getting too worse. It’s choking inbound traffic in consumer states.
f) Fuck you, corona!
(I hope that covers all manpower disruptions due to Wuhan virus)
Read 5 tweets
Oct 16, 2021
Time for a bit on China.

You all know how i love to bash China and Xi Jinping.
Now, a little bit without the excessive dramatisations.
2. #XiJinping is a rare leader that China has received. Providence has a way to feed the right medicine to someone that it wants to keep alive longer.
Jinping is just that.
3. The mess in China can be easily related. What we have is a large babudom state. The party politbureau is the only controlling authority, but it’s a collection of different ambitions, that just want to show good results on paper. The whole system relies on having good press.
Read 63 tweets
Sep 22, 2021
I am not an economist, but this is what i feel is happening around us.

This is start of a rant.
Pandemic induced trade disruption is a reality.
It’s timing though is either miraculous or impeccable, based on which side of the conspiracy theory aisle you prefer.

Pre-pandemic, everything wasn’t really that rosy. And this is around the world.
3. Stuff like steel, oil, etc were already under some kind of pressure.
A lot of muck was getting stirred in China.

Global gdp growth data in pic. The last peak was the 4.3% in 2009. In 2019, it was a mere 2.3%. People were just hoping that 2020 would be better.
Read 34 tweets
Sep 21, 2021
@chittukuruvi4
This is the video to broadly answer your evergrande question
@chittukuruvi4
This is a very interesting conversation. Ofc, none better than @_nirajshah to ask those relevant questions.
The key part: it’s not really about evergrande hitting us.
It’s about this huge india story. Key factor: India needs to go up 8-10% to meet pre-covid levels
@chittukuruvi4
Another key take away:
This guy is already talking about being selective. That’s very interesting.
It’s as if he is indicating that we are near the peak or we are a bit past it.
And, he expects a >5% correction.
I think earnings will adjust.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 10, 2021
109. #Options #Notes

A quick update on a few stuff.

For a conservative, low margin money person(low money at hand), the best option in credit spreads is about 25-30 delta. You are looking for risk reward 1:0.5 to 1:0.25.
You can manage at 1:1 by being more active.
110. #Options #Notes
It’s better to have all spreads at 1/3rd the width of strike.
That gives us a 1:0.5 RR ratio. Ex: trade with max profit of ₹1k has max loss of ₹2k.

You can’t have a low probability trade unless you are damn sure about it.
111. #Options #Notes

If you are going to be directional, be directional.
I had tried both ATM bullish put spread and 35 delta put spread on SBIN. I got more out of former because i got the direction right and i used closer to 50 delta.

In directional, do it 💯 or don’t do it.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 31, 2020
I believe what’s happening now is a disruption in the way we think of commutation.

The pandemic has shown us that an 8-hr office is not really necessary.
Of course, there are sectors where Work-From-Home doesn’t make sense.
But, vast majority of work can be done from home.
The reason: we have now digital connectivity substituting for physical or road connectivity.
This is an option we never had in the past.
Technically, we can employ people from home, with an occasaional face to face interaction for certain limited activities that require physical presence.
Read 28 tweets

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