murali Profile picture
A remorseless relentless restless roaming ascetic... Forgive me, for water always flows. Discl: tweets & RT are ideas provided AS IS. Nothing is subscribed
Oct 24, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
This is the trickle I expected to see.

@economyninja explains what else is happening due to the delay in ship turn around times. Mind you, most Chinese exporters are smart. They don’t ship until they get full payment. And most buyers stupidly pay upfront!
The kind of stories we have been repeatedly seeing.
a) foreign companies are steadily leaving china.
b) some think they are too invested in China, and they are talking China plus one.
c) Japanese, Taiwanese and Korean companies are closing in large numbers, mostly kicked out.
Oct 16, 2021 63 tweets 11 min read
Time for a bit on China.

You all know how i love to bash China and Xi Jinping.
Now, a little bit without the excessive dramatisations. 2. #XiJinping is a rare leader that China has received. Providence has a way to feed the right medicine to someone that it wants to keep alive longer.
Jinping is just that.
Sep 22, 2021 34 tweets 6 min read
I am not an economist, but this is what i feel is happening around us.

This is start of a rant. Pandemic induced trade disruption is a reality.
It’s timing though is either miraculous or impeccable, based on which side of the conspiracy theory aisle you prefer.

Pre-pandemic, everything wasn’t really that rosy. And this is around the world.
Sep 21, 2021 5 tweets 3 min read
This is the video to broadly answer your evergrande question
This is a very interesting conversation. Ofc, none better than @_nirajshah to ask those relevant questions.
The key part: it’s not really about evergrande hitting us.
It’s about this huge india story. Key factor: India needs to go up 8-10% to meet pre-covid levels
Feb 10, 2021 4 tweets 3 min read
109. #Options #Notes

A quick update on a few stuff.

For a conservative, low margin money person(low money at hand), the best option in credit spreads is about 25-30 delta. You are looking for risk reward 1:0.5 to 1:0.25.
You can manage at 1:1 by being more active. 110. #Options #Notes
It’s better to have all spreads at 1/3rd the width of strike.
That gives us a 1:0.5 RR ratio. Ex: trade with max profit of ₹1k has max loss of ₹2k.

You can’t have a low probability trade unless you are damn sure about it.
Oct 31, 2020 28 tweets 5 min read
I believe what’s happening now is a disruption in the way we think of commutation.

The pandemic has shown us that an 8-hr office is not really necessary.
Of course, there are sectors where Work-From-Home doesn’t make sense.
But, vast majority of work can be done from home. The reason: we have now digital connectivity substituting for physical or road connectivity.
This is an option we never had in the past.
Oct 31, 2020 15 tweets 3 min read
Happy #EktaDiwas to all.
Tributes to #SardarVallabhbhaiPatel.

He will always be remembered as the man who united the nation.

A brief thread with a contrarian view follows: 1. There has been a consensus so far that making all princely states join the union of India was a wonderful thing.
And then, there was these massive state reorganisations starting from 1956.
Oct 30, 2020 6 tweets 1 min read
A bit of history on what’s really happening in France. You all know about the nexus of commies and islamists.
Not going to repeat it.
Oct 28, 2020 4 tweets 1 min read
@invest_mutual correct me if I am wrong, but bonds are not FD replacements.
In most, you buy a bond at a higher price. The effective yield, if you held it till maturity, is going to be lesser. If you want to make money by buying and selling bonds, you might as well buy index fund Reason:
You should know when bond prices will shoot up to give you sufficient capital gains/profit. You should get better profit than holding the bond till maturity.
You should be certain that the company won’t default in the mean time.
Oct 17, 2020 19 tweets 12 min read
#options #notes
The days of relatively higher implied volatility seems to have come to an end now.
Bank nifty historical IV is now in 30s. IVP is now in the 50s.
Nifty is even lower. Historical IV around 20. IVP in 40s.

It’s like the days of Iron Vertical spreads and IB are on. #options #notes
SBIN is at IV of late 40s. IVP around 50.
ITC is at IV late 30s. IVP just above 60.
NTPC is at IV 40s. IVP in 60s.
COALINDIA IV 40s IVP around 60.
Reliance IV around 40 IVP around 60.
LT IV 30s.

NMDC IV 50s, but it’s very illiquid.
Oct 17, 2020 4 tweets 1 min read
This is a perspective.
Everyone should watch this because it’s a bit more balanced. The minor place where I disagree with @vagishasoni:
The response to the ad is political. In terms of western equivalence, it’s like black people slamming an ad for praising slavery.
The key visual cue here is pregnancy. The girl is forced to accept terms because of pregnancy.
Oct 1, 2020 35 tweets 21 min read
72. #Options #Notes
After spending two months on actual trading of options(I am 7 trades wiser for which my tuition fees is close to ₹8000), it’s time to add a few more notes to this thread. 73. #Options #Notes
For a beginner who just wants to try out how options work, the command line interface type of learning is to go for currency options. You have to manually calculate everything. The payout is not in any easily viewable chart. It’s very taxing. But loss is tiny
Oct 1, 2020 9 tweets 2 min read
Read this thread.
This had to be said because we have too many “uneducated literates”
in this country.
It’s important to see the data, appreciate the context and think about the available options without the benefit of hindsight.

India had done a pretty decent job so far. What @oommen explicitly didn’t say:
In Jan-Feb, the babus must have had a tough time figuring out what’s going on. WHO was saying one thing. The Embassy in China, Vietnam, etc was hearing something else.
The administration had earlier experience with SARS(again a chinese virus).
Sep 29, 2020 4 tweets 2 min read
I don’t want to call this an #options #tradenotes. Nor do I really want to call it currency1.
Did a bull put spread on USD-INR atm.
73.75 at .1075
73.5 at .0375
Just 1 lot.
Worst I can only lose ₹300.
I can gain only ₹70.
I think fees is ₹27.
This is merely a test trade. I missed a 0 in 300.
Sep 29, 2020 23 tweets 5 min read
I wish I had read this article before.
It’s 3 years old, but it’s still very relevant.

This gives me some extra insight.
/0 There is a reason we use the pejorative term “code coolie”. No, it’s not about getting paid peanuts for doing all the heavy lifting.
It’s got more to do with the skills, or the level of skills.

Let me add a bit of Bloom’s taxonomy here. I will use the revised 4 domain model.

Sep 27, 2020 7 tweets 4 min read
I respect him for his brief interventions in the house. Most may not know that he was honoured as the outstanding parliamentarian in 2001. He was always very pleasing to listen in the House. A very old school Parliamentarian.
Sep 27, 2020 44 tweets 9 min read
A healthy advice to parents.
Your 6 year old will pass out from a probable engineering college at age 23, or 17 years away. Just think what was IT/related industry doing in 2003 and 2020 before you push your child to coding.

(I think thread time)
0/ Expected Future of Coding: 1/ In year 2000, the coding industry (or software industry or whatever you want to call it) made a lot of sense. The digital penetration was very low. Computing power was barely used, communication technologies were still “infantile”(we were still at 2 G).
Sep 24, 2020 10 tweets 3 min read
I largely agree with @andymukherjee70 on the possible impact of the farm bills.
But I don’t agree with his fears.
Agriculture had been a victim of a bad monopsony for a long time. This major reform will change that. Will we see a different type of cartelisation emerging?
Most definitely yes. There will definitely be a rule of 3. We may see 3 major companies emerging soon who will capture most of the market share.
But, the current chain of mandis will remain one of the three.
Sep 23, 2020 7 tweets 2 min read
I have both.
So, now I have to ask what’s wrong with coal india.... yeah, apart from the debt and all.... My conviction on coal india comes from my understanding of how Modi works. I believe that Modi will support PSEs/PSUs that make sense.
Coal being integral part of economy, he will support coal.
Sep 23, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read
This is great news.
If you look from a multi-decade perspective, this would mean that within a decade we will be having cheaper electric cars. @Tesla can become the first company to mass produce cheap electric cars. But, this is not really about tesla.
This is going to be far greater than that.
We are still talking in terms of lithium ion batteries now.
We may soon find an alternative technology that is cheaper, thereby allowing manufacture of affordable EVs.
Sep 22, 2020 14 tweets 5 min read
Read this thread and then read about Belgian system(secondary)…
And the German school system here…

What @svembu is suggesting is to ensure most children completing (vocational) schools join workforce immediately. My main concern with NEP 2020 is that we have not shifted to the pure vocational school education system.
What we now are doing is to ask all students to learn one job.
No, we don’t want that. What we instead want is to allow students to choose as early as 12 years to choose path