Thread by @DavidSteadson

Interesting paper from Sjödin @JoacimRocklov et. al on the Swedish response.

https://twitter.com/JoacimRocklov/status/1308302161126674433

One thing I'm happy to see is someone finally doing the hard math on excess mortality and taking in to account Swedish mortality is decreasing and was much lower than normal in the weeks before CV19 hit, and that the death toll may be as much as 40% higher than currently reported

On a quick read through they estimated significantly lower IFR than FHM found in an early report, which is interesting. -

Overall, the IFR for Sweden in scenarios (a)–(e) is estimated to 0.46; 0.44; 0.42; 0.34 and 0.30 %, respectively

(scenario d was best fit)

This unsourced claim raised my eyebrows though -

"The policy and measures were less stringent and economically damaging compared with those introduced in other Scandinavian countries"

Are you sure about that?

Most important though, this paper reinforces what I've been saying all along. The "Swedish model" shows that this virus is actually *very* amenable to NPIs. The relatively moderate interventions Sweden introduced had a dramatic effect on the virus spread.

It would be interesting to see them repeat the exercise with the other Nordic countries, for comparison. What seems apparent from them is that, with the right timing *just a little bit more* can have an ever bigger effect and decrease morbidity and mortality significantly.