abhishek Profile picture
Sep 22, 2020 10 tweets 2 min read Read on X
What’s your claim on alpha?

👇
I don’t know any endeavour where the difference between how easy something looks & how difficult it actually is, is as wide as in Investing (in the context of stock picking).

@passivefool says this is a “Blood Sport”. Apt.

2/10
People across the income/wealth spectrum feel it is easy to pick stocks & multiply their savings. They fall for every racket out there - High Risk-High Return/Small Caps Outperform/Divinations by Drawing Lines/Tips from TV Experts/Option Seminars/Leverage….

3/10
The lure of easy & quick riches is just too tempting to resist. It’s a tragedy when someone who doesn’t have even 6 month of his expenses in savings loses about half of it in penny stocks (a close friend of mine did).

Please ask yourself why you can do this?

4/10
There is no junior league in Investing.

The moment you put in an order you are up against the whole wide world with all the wisdom of your heroes and legends on the other side.

What edge do you really have?

5/10
I am very intelligent (top .2% percentile in the 2 most competitive exams in the country). I read ~ 200 pages/20 reports a day. Investing/Trading is my day/night/weekday/weekend job. Everything I do is structured around trying to be a better Investor.

But…

6/10
99% of the time I am just clueless. And this is not humility (as evidenced by the previous tweet) - it’s a fact. My colleagues, & friends are constantly sharing insights & data that is new to me. Leaves no doubt about how little I know & that feeling persists.

7/10
No matter how much time I spend researching a stock, the moment I buy it, within days I start questioning my thesis. It’s constant agony. Even when things work out you feel it was just due to plain luck.

8/10
Every bad call forces you think what have you sacrificed from your family's future wellbeing by being stupid.

And this is when I have spent a lot of time trying to get better at the psychological/behavioral aspects of Investing.

9/10
I am just an average Investor. The bar is really high. Most of you can’t do this. Most of you don’t need to!

Avoid stupidity. Make sensible asset allocation decisions. Save. Work on a skill where you might have an edge in time.

10/10

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More from @abhishec_s

Dec 1, 2022
Nobody Knows

👇
Image
Image
Read 10 tweets
Jul 2, 2022
“Sometimes you climb out of bed in the morning and you think, I'm not going to make it, but you laugh inside — remembering all the times you've felt that way.”
Q: What are you proudest of?

Munger: I am proudest of avoiding things I don’t like.
Be willing to get burned, willing to look bad. Don’t forget your “why”. Put your head down everyday and bite on the nail. Fall in love with the boredom of practise.

Hard work really, really matters.

'Always do what's right.

This will gratify some people and astonish the rest'.
Read 25 tweets
Jul 2, 2022
Views on Investing & Investment Management Industry:

(developed/borrowed/collated/adopted)

They resonate strongly with me. But you have to keep reminding yourself as the world is always tempting you to abandon them.

👇
I find it challenging to get even one good new idea in a year.

When I started I could find something everyday. I am no longer young enough to know everything.
If you understand ‘margin of safety’ whatever else you know should be enough.

If you don’t understand it - everything else that you know will end up hurting you.
Read 26 tweets
Mar 12, 2022
The Price You Pay - Matters.

In the last few year, you have probably been told that

"Valuations don't matter.

New businesses need new valuations metrics. Some old businesses will keep compounding at 25% ad infinitum".

Let's look at the data.

1/n
The chart of Amazon PE is not "evidence". Stop this nonsense already.

How do you go about testing the hypothesis that 'valuations don't matter'?

Pick a well defined universe & run a systematic strategy that buys expensive/cheap stocks.

2/n
Returns of deferent deciles of NSE 500 universe from most expensive to cheapest on forward PE. Equi-weighted & re-balanced quarterly.

Most Expensive D1 makes 20.5%
D9 makes 29%

9% Difference. Every Year.

Why not D10 (still beats D1) - a very good reason. Can you guess?

3/n Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 24, 2021
“How should I invest”?

I have recently been getting this question a lot from friends and family (last year I was a persona non grata).

This is usually how I answer.

👇
Can I make “just 20% to 25% a year” in stock markets?

No. You can’t. If you try this, you will lose all your capital. You can take my word for it or learn the hard way.

Take my word.

(3 people asked me this just in the last one week)

2/
8.5% 13.5%

Those are the historical returns for (safer) debt and equity. Currently debt returns are even lower.

Assuming this is the return you get in future, you will make 11.5% for a 60:40 Equity:Debt portfolio.

These are good returns if you give it time.

3/
Read 13 tweets
Apr 9, 2021
4 Quotes from Jamie Dimon’s 2021 Letter

Accept failure as a “normal” recurring outcome.

1/4
Develop great models but understand they are not the answer — judgement has to be involved in matters related to human beings and extraordinary events.

2/4
Sometimes the action you take may not be the one that gives you the best outcome but the one that gives you a good outcome and reduces the possibility of bad outcomes.

3/4
Read 4 tweets

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