Been surprising to me that the shift among under 45 year old voters since 2016 hasn't gotten more attention - it's one of the biggest demo/geo shifts of the Trump era. Hope pollsters, analysts spend more time looking at it in the days ahead (thread).
A new Harvard IOP poll captures the movement w/18-29 year olds.
HRC won them by 19, 55-36. Biden's lead today in this poll and others is well into the 30s. Here it's 60-27 (33 pts), w/Trump WAY below his 2016 totals. Margin could easily become high 30s.
HRC won them by 19, 55-36. Biden's lead today in this poll and others is well into the 30s. Here it's 60-27 (33 pts), w/Trump WAY below his 2016 totals. Margin could easily become high 30s.
https://twitter.com/EJDionne/status/1308213079075966976
In 2018 Dems won 18-29 year olds by 35 pts, and under 45s by 25. Clinton won them by 19, and 14.
Appears Biden is on track to match these 2018 numbers, and this is with about 45% of the electorate.
This is an enormous shift in the Presidential race.
ndn.org/blog/2019/08/a…
Appears Biden is on track to match these 2018 numbers, and this is with about 45% of the electorate.
This is an enormous shift in the Presidential race.
ndn.org/blog/2019/08/a…
On the question of turnout, turnout for younger voters as a share of the electorate was up in 2018, even in a high turnout election. In this @CivicYouth @TischCollege poll, and in the IOP poll, vote intent, interest is way up fr 2016 levels. circle.tufts.edu/latest-researc…
My hope is to get analysts like @Nate_Cohn @NateSilver538 @RonBrownstein @SteveKornacki @maddow @lbarronlopez @GioRussonello to drill down more on under 45s. It's as important as what's happening w/Seniors, suburbanites IMHO, helps explain why Sunbelt so much more competitive.
One big question I have for the analysts is how much of the national undecided vote - 6-8 percent these days - is under 45? And how much of that is available to Trump? If a majority of what's out there is under 45, Trump is in deeper trouble than is understood right now.
So, assuming...
Under 45s are 44% of the electorate this year (like 2016), Electorate goes from 136m in '16 to 150m
Under 45s go from +14 for Clinton to +25 (2018 D result)
Biden gains 8m votes
Clinton 53/39 - net 8.4m votes
Biden 60/35 - net 16.5m votes
Big stuff here.
Under 45s are 44% of the electorate this year (like 2016), Electorate goes from 136m in '16 to 150m
Under 45s go from +14 for Clinton to +25 (2018 D result)
Biden gains 8m votes
Clinton 53/39 - net 8.4m votes
Biden 60/35 - net 16.5m votes
Big stuff here.
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