Thread by @wolfejosh

1/ It is generational arbitrage.

Human nature is this: the masses are mostly credulous steerable sheep—🐑 many lost, needing to be led.

The WISE and the CLEVER break—first from the herd (with differing confidence)—and then from each other (with differing ethics)😇👿...

https://twitter.com/richtechexec/status/1308147740631797760

2/ This is true first in religion & politics—where indoctrination happens very young (emulating parents) and the chains of belief are too WEAK to be felt until too STRONG to be broken—pain of being social ostracized is horrible.

And a "biological trap" for many—how?...

3/ A "biological trap" is like the moth in the fridge. 🦋

A moth is trapped in a fridge.
Open the door to free it—
But it cannot leave.
Because— the 💡

Show most the light and the binds of the tribe triumph tightly over truth that can free..

4/ Religion + politics are tribally biological traps—BUT so are markets.

The dopamine hit of reward from making money combined with comraderie of winning—makes it (like religion + politics) perfect for sheep 🐑 where what other people believe other people believe matters...

5/ Notably—different in sports. Fans can foment frenzy tribally over a TEAM but are overtly critical of their own team individual players if they objectively—play poorly. Players can cheat but otherwise hard to fake skill + evidence/TRUTH of scoring (unlike preachers, pols, CEOs)

6/ Back to the WISE and CLEVER.

Both break from the masses of sheep
But they break from each other on ethics and intentions

The wise mostly explore (and help)
—the more detected the better for them

The clever mostly exploit (and hurt)
—the more undetected the better for them

7/ wise: motivated to reveal and catch the clever
clever: motivated to not get caught

Think Tom Hanks "I'm on to you" of Leonardo Dicaprio's Frank Abagnale in "Catch Me if You Can"

Fraudsters, hucksters, cons, promoters
vs
Scientists, sleuths, journalists, short-sellers

8/ Every generation has to learn its own lesson. But it only gets taught when the wise catch the clever. Or the clever get too greedy and confident and make messy mistakes.

The wise today got wise by getting burned by the clever in the past...

9/ "Fool me once".

Today's young traders will in 20 years be warning the next generation how they are getting duped

Just as those that were in their 20s— 20 yrs ago during .com/Enron/WorldCom/Tyco era went from
"this time is different"
to
"wtf just happened"

very quickly..

10/ As Charles Mackay said in "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" in 1841(!)

Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds—while they only recover their senses slowly,

one by one.