Francis Hoar Profile picture
Sep 22, 2020 23 tweets 3 min read Read on X
First misleading statement from the PM: use of raw data without the context of the rising number of tests.
Second misleading statement: ignoring the possibility of residual (T-cell) immunity.
Third misleading statement: hospitalisations have doubled in a fortnight, without stating that hospitalisations have plateaued in the last week.
'We must take action to *suppress* the disease.' That is an assertion without evidence. Sweden hasn't suppressed the disease and now has fewer cases than almost anywhere in Europe.
What is the evidence that closing at 10 pm will reduce transmission?
More masks. What empirical evidence is there to suggest that face coverings required in the community reduce transmission?
How will reducing weddings from 30 to 15 reduce transmission. Where is the EVIDENCE?
Now the supposed liberal states not only that criminalisation is necessary but that heavier penalisation is too. Again, where is the evidence that this would: (a) make a difference to transmission; or (b) be remotely proportionate?
'Local flair ups.' The North West has new regulations and yet is the only region to have fewer deaths per day than the five year average (ONS).
Significantly, the PM has stated that if the R goes above 1 he will impose further restrictions. In other words, considerations of virus transmission are the *determining* factor. That is to say, he cannot have concluded that these or other steps are proportionate...
...because ALL other considerations - all harms caused by these measures - will not be able to trump the requirement to get R below 1.
Not only are these to be for six months, this government has now moved towards a policy of suppression of a virus that has a death rate not much more than flu. This is unprecedented before 2020.
He now calls on us all to cover our faces and observe social distancing. There is no empirical evidence supporting requiring these measures in the community.
The nominal Leader of the 'Opposition' provides nothing of the sort.
He has the temerity to refer to the rule of law. When has Starmer ever criticised or even questioned wholesale removals of fundamental rights and freedoms? When has he questioned the imposition of regulations without Parliamentary scrutiny?
The use of the emergency procedure of the Public Health Act at all?
Starmer refuses (it must be deliberate as he must know about this) to challenge ANY of the utterly flawed data used in the exceptionally misleading presentation yesterday.
On false positives, on the trajectory of the case, on the evidence the lockdown made no difference to the infection peak.
He, as well as the Prime Minister, is a disgrace to the enormous responsibility of his office.
I will not listen to any of the rest of them. They are uninformed, uncritical, ignorant and fail to provide the scrutiny that is not only their job but their duty. It is difficult to think of a Parliament less worthy of its heritage.
This data undermines everything the PM, the @CMO_England and the Chief Scientific Adviser have presented in the last two days, reliant as they are on increased cases supposedly leading to increased hospitalisations and deaths.

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More from @Francis_Hoar

Apr 16
The government’s tobacco Bill is not just stunningly impractical and unjustified by the harm that smoking causes to society, rather than the individual. It is sinister. To require adults to prove their age (not that they have reached adulthood) to buy a legal product is a gross intrusion in to individual privacy and autonomy.
It has preposterous results, such as the two 25 year-olds (then 35, 45…), a day apart in age, one of whom will commit a *criminal offence* by buying a product available to the other. (Again, not comparable to an age limit based on an assessment of maturity that is reached, only once, by all.)
It would create a thoroughly dangerous precedent that the state may ban a product not because of its capacity to do immediate grave harm (eg poisons) or to cause disorder or other societal mischief (eg alcohol, if we were being honest) but because of long-term health risks.
Read 11 tweets
Jun 28, 2023
I acted in a judicial review of this decsn in 2021. Regardless of whether the court rightly rejected the challenge to the decision of the Sec of State, as a matter of record the JCVI did not recommend vaccination for 11-15s as there was insufficient evidence about their safety.
The reason why the Chief Medical Officers of the UK and devolved nations (‘the CMOs’) recommended overruling them was astonishingly flimsy - that they might save a (proportionately) tiny number of school days in absences by reducing the number of children getting Covid.
In making that decision, the CMOs *expressly* decides not to measure that against the accepted certainty of absences due to side-effects of the vaccine. Even only taking into account minor side effects (cold like symptoms) these were likely to be greater than absences from Covid.
Read 5 tweets
Jun 13, 2023
An improvement on indications of Lady Hallett’s thinking,but it misses central points.
Lockdowns weren’t considered in pandemic plans not just b’cs they were unthinkable but bc’s measures *less* draconian were found to be ineffective & disproportionate.

bbc.co.uk/news/health-65…
It *is* positive that the Inquiry is finally addressing the lack of any adequate prior consideration of the exceptional harm that wld be the inevitable consequence of lockdown; let alone to weigh whether that harm was justified by the supposed efficacy of lockdown.
(I say finally because of the consummate lack of any such consideration in the terms of reference and earlier openings.)
Read 9 tweets
Aug 2, 2022
I find the approach of Christian Concern very odd - and wholly divorced from orthodox Augustinian and Aquinan Christian principles, quite apart from Hippocratic ones. Tragic though this case is, it concerns the end of life supporting treatment, not active steps to kill.
Not long ago, such withdrawal would have been expected and uncontroversial, however sad, where medical professionals determined that it was very unlikely that a person would awake from a coma.
And, because it was treatment using facilities and medication that was finite, such a determination was likely to have been final, a hospital having the right to ration treatment.
Read 18 tweets
Jul 29, 2022
This is desperately sad news.
Mark was the epitome of a good citizen.He devoted his life to serving his borough. I came to know him during the Tower Hamlets election petition,when his research & analysis were invaluable to exposing the corruption of Lutfur Rahman and his cronies.
He had been working on this with other journalists - @TedJeory @mragilligan, John Ware and more - for years. But assembling the evidence was particularly challenging in the face of an organisation controlled by one man.
During the nine months in which the case was prepared and presented, the small team could not have proved the case against Rahman so comprehensively (the judgment survived two judicial reviews) without Mark and others.
Read 9 tweets
Apr 14, 2022
One of the most interesting moments in the documentary was how quickly the public reaction turned. From ‘how dare you say this’ to ‘he never existed’ (a revealing comment).
The last two yrs have confirmed to me the conclusion one can also draw from this.

theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2…
Let’s not beat about the bush. Public opinion is fickle, easily manipulated, and an exceptionally dangerous measure of what is right.
That is why an absolute democracy would be one of the most dangerous - and short lived - systems. A recipe for tyranny.
Edmund Burke recognised this. That is what he meant by ‘democracy’ when he castigated it.
Yes, a balanced, mature liberal democracy is the worst system apart from all the others (the caveats were understood to be implied by Churchill)…
Read 6 tweets

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