Following on my marathon thread on testing ( threadreaderapp.com/thread/1308088… ), some thoughts on the app, which is due to be launched this week.
1/9
Most people with Covid-19 will never be identified.
Most never have symptoms. Few will be tested, and the test misses 70% of sick people, and even more of those without symptoms.
2/9
Which means, the app will only ever identify a fraction of people with Covid-19.
So not having been alerted that you've been in contact with somebody who might be infectious won't mean you haven't been.
So…
3/9
-Self-isolate if you’re sick (but be aware most people with Covid-19 have not symptoms)
-Keep contact with other people to a minimum. Don’t meet with 6 people if you can avoid it!
4/9
-If you risk being within 2m of another person (not in your household the people you share accommodation with*) wear a mask. If you want to wear a visor for eye protection, fair enough; but the mask matters more.
5/9
-If you are vulnerable – prior condition or shielding – be even more cautious. If you can’t avoid mixing with people outside your household, wear an FFP2 mask.
6/9
-Keep up the handwashing, especially if you have to touch eg door handles touched by many other people – and carry alchohol-based hand gel to use if you can’t wash your hands (eg when you’ve had to pull a toilet door open after washing your hands).
7/9
Testing is useful for knowing where in the population the disease is; but as most people don’t get symptoms, it won’t prevent you from mixing with infected people, or with susceptible people if you’re infected.
8/9
Similarly, only a fraction of cases will ever be identified, so many of them won’t show up on any app. Contact tracing helps; but the points above are far more important.
9/9
The twitter thread linked to in the first tweet in this thread was a brilliant thread by @izzybraithwaite - but not the thread I'd intended to link to, which is:
Make sure, if you'll be voting in person, that you have photo ID - note that the tories are trying to exclude younger voters by making some forms of ID (like railcards) unacceptable for younger voters, but acceptable for older voters.
If you're not sure where or whom to vote for, you could look at these websites (they may not yet make a recommendation; they will nearer the time):
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3/5tactical.vote tacticalvote.co.uk getvoting.org
It is essential that we switch away from fossil fuel use as quickly as possible. And many countries are successfully switching their electricity use to renewable sources.
One advantage of hydrocarbon power - like gas - is that you can quickly increase energy production to match surges in demand. By contrast, most renewable sources can't do this.
You can't make it more sunny when you need the power most; and wind and tidal energy (for example) are dependent on how windy it is, or the phase of the tide.
1/ I've just tweeted two twitter threads - from @dgurdasani1 and @DrEricDing - about "highly pathogenic avian influenza" (HPAI) virus spreading in cattle and on to humans.
This is a step along the path to epidemiologists' nightmare scenario.
There are many strains of influenza.
@dgurdasani1 @DrEricDing 2/ Most strains mostly affect a single species. Bird strains generally transmit poorly to, or between, mammals.
But flu viruses mutate very quickly. Once established in another species, variants that can transmit better have an evolutionary advantage.
@dgurdasani1 @DrEricDing 3/ Flu viruses mutate by "drift" - gradual change. They also mutate by "shift". Shift can occur when a bird or mammal is simultaneously infected by two different flu viruses, creating a new virus with a mixture of genes from the two original viruses.
When I graduated in 1984, and became a junior doctor, I had to pay my GMC membership, professional indemnity insurance, and for ongoing professional exams and Royal College membership. Just as junior doctors do now. BUT…
1/
…But, as a junior doctor in the 1980s, I had no "student debt". Like nearly all my colleagues, I'd had a government grant to pay my fees and living expenses.
And I had free hospital accommodation for the first three years…
2/
…and then, when I bought a house, house prices were much more affordable.
Today's junior doctors have to pay for hospital accommodation, and much more than I did for their own house or flat.
3/
@TedUrchin @acgrayling @RishiSunak @BorisJohnson As a doctor turned (unwillingly) civil servant, it was always drilled into me that all records must be kept - not least in case of a future enquiry. 1/
@TedUrchin @acgrayling @RishiSunak @BorisJohnson My bacon was once saved when Department of Health tried to blame HPA (and me specifically) for leaking something they'd announced to a meeting of 100s months earlier. 2/
@TedUrchin @acgrayling @RishiSunak @BorisJohnson I'd informed GPs of the planned change. A newspaper ran the story - quoting my letter - the weekend before a planned ministerial announcement.
Minister was furious. I was the obvious culprit. But… 3/
@implausibleblog It pains me to defend Hancock, but…
We SHOULD have known, very early on, that it was at the very least highly plausible that people could be infectious before they became symptomatic. See
1/threadreaderapp.com/thread/1726558…
@implausibleblog But the national experts in PHE stuck to the dogma that Covid-19 could not be transmitted by asymptomatic patients until months after we knew for certain that it could.
2/
@implausibleblog This, and their unreasonable adherence to the "masks don't work" long after there was strong and rapidly growing evidence that they [almost certainly, at first] do work mean that the scientific experts in PHE have serious questions to answer.
3/