Thread by @izzybraithwaite

1) Had a few people ask today what I think about Heneghan & co's narrative that the risks of COVID-19 have been overhyped & we should aim to avoid all adverse impacts on the less vulnerable

https://twitter.com/carlheneghan/status/1308041538463772673?s=20

Some thoughts (from my perspective as a public health registrar)

2) They present no evidence to demonstrate that the cure has been 'worse' than the disease. Of course measures should be targeted wherever possible, and we should absolutely strengthen Test & Trace, but the wider impacts have been worst where countries were most lax (see 12)

3) Heneghan's 'false positive tests' argument is both misleading and besides the point, especially given the clearly rising proportion of tests that are positive & COVID-related healthcare use is also increasing- see

https://twitter.com/ADMBriggs/status/1307800859091312641?s=20

4) Hospital and ITU admissions are already starting to increase (despite cases so far mainly being in younger adults), albeit more slowly than in March due to social distancing - 

https://twitter.com/ADMBriggs/status/1307800850862088193?s=20

& there will likely be ↑ deaths due to these ↑ case #s within weeks

5) We aren't islands, and in taking risks because we consider ourselves 'low-risk', we can't help but create risk for others - eloquently put by @CMO_England this morning - 

https://twitter.com/OutbreakJake/status/1307989076004438021?s=20

6) 'Throwing protective rings' etc sounds easy, but we know that we can't effectively protect vulnerable people when community transmission is high - we're too connected & interdependent. UK tried in the first wave, and it went badly, leading to 1000s of deaths in care homes.

7) the recent increase is already starting to manifest amongst >80s 

https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1307609224495722503?s=20

Probably through a mixture of cafes/restaurants/pubs, family meet-ups, multi-gen. homes, carers & healthcare workers - who UK seems unlikely to provide w/ separate accommodation/childcare

8) On the question of COVID's impacts being over-hyped (& linked theories like 80% not susceptible before COVID hit etc), for a forensic dissection of some of Ivor Cummins' recent pseudoscience along similar lines, see 

https://twitter.com/juniordrblog/status/1305861383607771137?s=20

from the excellent @juniordrblog

9) COVID's long-term consequences are real and unpleasant. I'm young-ish and v. unlikely to die from it if I contract it, but - just like these scientists - I definitely don't want it, it's not always just like a cold or flu

https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1307601884933484544?s=20

10) Evidence from Novus suggests that ~150,000 people in Sweden had symptoms for >10 weeks (novus.se/novus-coronast…). I've seen this too: someone close to me developed blood clots in their lungs after recovery, & a healthy, early 30s friend struggled to work for months afterwards

11) decisive & effective action to reduce prevalence is economically smarter than half-hearted/inadequate or too-slow action (shorter restrictions & econ. impacts will happen irrespective of the policy decisions if ppl feel unsafe, & they'll feel less safe if prevalence is high)

12) The fact that there isn't a health/economy trade-off is pretty clear from the international picture to date - for an international, data-focused view that avoids the common cherry-picking there seems to be a *lot* of going on, see ourworldindata.org/covid-health-e…

13) calling for 'herd immunity' through viral spread, for a virus that kills >10% of the most vulnerable groups' members, is inherently ableist and ageist. By demanding more freedom for the youngest & fittest, we take more freedom from the most vulnerable, & sometimes their lives

14) I recognise that people feel scared and/or angry and/or frustrated, and we 100% need better policies to protect and support people and their livelihoods, and to enable us to do the things that matter to us, safely. Driving prevalence down is a *key* way to do that.

*BUT*

15) sacrificing tens, potentially hundreds, of thousands of other people's lives, (and, often, the lives of poorer people and people of colour) is NOT an ethically acceptable way to address those concerns & challenges - 

https://twitter.com/GabrielScally/status/1307975178580828162?s=20