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No Teams (≠neutral OR centrist) Indy Profile picture
@NoTeamsIndy
Sep 22, 2020 • 4 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
@JoeBiden v. Trump 9/22 UPDATE

Biden +7.4 / Clinton +1.6
EC: Biden 284-124 (+160) / Clinton 222-181 (+41)

Biden 50%+ in 7 battlegrounds, 49%+ in 11
0 for Clinton; highest 44.4%, ≥41% in 10/18

Since 9/15: 9 of 18 -> Biden (largest ME: 5.7); 6 even; 3 -> Trump (largest OH, 0.9) ImageImageImageImage
NOTES (con’t):

1. "Battleground": ≤10% in 2016 results or 2020 polling averages

2. LV when available, otherwise RV; no A

3. Polls w/3rd party used when available

4. Turnout-hypothesizing versions of polls not used

5. Outliers (10%+ off of polling average) excluded
ETERNAL REMINDERS:

1. 2016 nat'l + battlegrounds polling *averages* were ACCURATE (≥5%), except WI/IA:

aapor.org/Education-Reso…

2. This is NOT A FORECAST. Also, forecasts aren't "yes/no" *predictions. They're *probability reports (538's largely matched Team Trump's at ~30%). ImageImageImage
Deep dive on mid-August to mid-September polling, including consideration of convention bumps, enthusiasm, and as always, how 2020 is so very different from 2016 (next deep dive coming on 10/1):

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More from @NoTeamsIndy

No Teams (≠neutral OR centrist) Indy Profile picture
Oct 22
"If Trump wants to be a dictator, why did he leave at the end of his term?"

A THREAD:

1. He only left after multiple, illegal schemes to overturn the election failed, including fake electors, pressuring states to overturn results, pressuring Pence to overturn, and inciting J6. Image
2. Per an EO drafted for him, if he'd succeeded in stopping the Electoral College count, he planned to seize ballots from swing states, put them in military buildings, and have loyalists in his cabinet report their "findings" (i.e., that Trump had magically "won" the election). Image
3a. Incidentally, the Trump Insurrectionists came within 40 feet (!!!) of capturing Pence, which at the very least, would've delayed the EC count past that day, as required by the Constitution, putting Trump's plan into motion.

Read 12 tweets
No Teams (≠neutral OR centrist) Indy Profile picture
Jul 29
🧵 on the "Dixiecrat Switch," going all the way back to the founding of the GOP in the 1850s, for everyone's reference.

Also to combat the historical revisionism on this story, used by MAGA and other Republicans to make the gaslighting claim, "Dems are the real racists!" 🙄 Image
1854: GOP founded to stop creation of more slave states. Most abolitionists joined, but also non-abolitionists, because northern farmers couldn't compete w/southern plantations. Needless to say, racism was/is rampant across the north.

taylorfrancis.com/chapters/mono/…
For the first two years of the Civil War, abolitionists had to lobby GOP POTUS Lincoln fiercely to say it was about slavery, not just preserving the Union, and his eventual choice to do so was as much about abolition as keeping Europe from interceding.

npr.org/2010/10/11/130…
Read 32 tweets
No Teams (≠neutral OR centrist) Indy Profile picture
Mar 5
🧵: #Bidenomics has worked better than anyone could've hoped, in every way possible. And by any fair measure, Biden’s economy is better than Trump's economy ever was, before or after CoVid.

(PSST... polls consistently show economy is undecided voters' #1 issue, so please SHARE!) Image
INFLATION: after worldwide inflation hit, the rate came down faster in the US than any G7 nation, and it's been back to the "target rate" since June 2023. Image
Not coincidentally, US corporations also posted *all-time* record profits during the period in which inflation was at its worst, by most experts’ accounts contributing 50-60% of it, as opposed to the 10-12% average we see otherwise.

epi.org/blog/corporate…
Image
Read 18 tweets
No Teams (≠neutral OR centrist) Indy Profile picture
Jun 9, 2022
On January 6th, 2021, Trump supporters—fueled by weeks of lies and violent rhetoric on a “stolen” election—attempted Insurrection to stop the certification of Biden’s win. A THREAD of all the things we have learned about the Seditious Conspiracy that led to that tragic event:
Before we start: the fact that ALL of Trumpworld's lawsuits lost in court would be enough for most to know there's no evidence the election was “stolen,” but if not, here’s Giuliani admitting (under oath) they didn’t even check if the claims were true.

washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
And contrary to claims from Trumpworld, the majority of these cases were decided on the merits, not on a question of standing.

politifact.com/factchecks/202…
Read 69 tweets
No Teams (≠neutral OR centrist) Indy Profile picture
Nov 1, 2020
Final Biden v. Trump UPDATE

Nat’l: Biden +9.0/Clinton +5.2
EC: Biden 279-121 (+178)/Clinton 223-179 (+43)

Biden 50%+ w/lead greater than all undecideds + 3rd party in ELEVEN battlegrounds, ZERO for Clinton

THREAD on polling, early vote, exit polls, and my GUESS at the outcome
NOTES (con’t):

1. "Battleground": ≤10% in 2016 results or 2020 averages

2. Likely Voter (LV), otherwise Registered Voter (RV)

3. Polls w/3rd party used when given

4. Turnout-hypothesizing polls not used

5. No partisan polls

5. Outliers (10%+ off of average) excluded
ETERNAL REMINDERS:

1. 2016 nat'l + battlegrounds polling AVERAGES were accurate (≥5%), except WI/IA:

aapor.org/Education-Reso…

2. The maps above are NOT A FORECAST; it is a REPORT on the current data. My GUESS is given at the end of the thread.
Read 48 tweets
No Teams (≠neutral OR centrist) Indy Profile picture
Oct 23, 2020
Biden v. Trump 10/23 UPDATE

Nat’l: Biden +9.9/Clinton +7.1
EC: Biden 279-124 (+155)/Clinton 272-180 (+92)

AND Biden 50%+ in ELEVEN battlegrounds (49%+ in 13), ZERO for Clinton

PLUS Biden lead greater than undecideds + 3rd party in TEN battlegrounds, ZERO for Clinton

THREAD...
NOTES (con’t):

1. "Battleground": ≤10% in 2016 results or 2020 averages

2. Likely Voter (LV) when available, otherwise Registered Voter (RV); no Adult (A)

3. Polls w/3rd party used when given

4. Turnout-hypothesizing polls not used

5. Outliers (10%+ off of average) excluded
ETERNAL REMINDERS:

1. 2016 nat'l + battlegrounds polling AVERAGES were accurate (≥5%), except WI/IA:

aapor.org/Education-Reso…

2. This is NOT A FORECAST; it is a REPORT on the current data. Earliest guesses at election outcome on 11/1, and probably with caveats.
Read 17 tweets

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