Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
@NoTeamsIndy
Sep 22, 2020 • 4 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
@JoeBiden v. Trump 9/22 UPDATE

Biden +7.4 / Clinton +1.6
EC: Biden 284-124 (+160) / Clinton 222-181 (+41)

Biden 50%+ in 7 battlegrounds, 49%+ in 11
0 for Clinton; highest 44.4%, ≥41% in 10/18

Since 9/15: 9 of 18 -> Biden (largest ME: 5.7); 6 even; 3 -> Trump (largest OH, 0.9) ImageImageImageImage
NOTES (con’t):

1. "Battleground": ≤10% in 2016 results or 2020 polling averages

2. LV when available, otherwise RV; no A

3. Polls w/3rd party used when available

4. Turnout-hypothesizing versions of polls not used

5. Outliers (10%+ off of polling average) excluded
ETERNAL REMINDERS:

1. 2016 nat'l + battlegrounds polling *averages* were ACCURATE (≥5%), except WI/IA:

aapor.org/Education-Reso…

2. This is NOT A FORECAST. Also, forecasts aren't "yes/no" *predictions. They're *probability reports (538's largely matched Team Trump's at ~30%). ImageImageImage
Deep dive on mid-August to mid-September polling, including consideration of convention bumps, enthusiasm, and as always, how 2020 is so very different from 2016 (next deep dive coming on 10/1):

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with "No teams" (≠ neutral OR centrist) Indy

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @NoTeamsIndy

Mar 5
🧵: #Bidenomics has worked better than anyone could've hoped, in every way possible. And by any fair measure, Biden’s economy is better than Trump's economy ever was, before or after CoVid.

(PSST... polls consistently show economy is undecided voters' #1 issue, so please SHARE!) Image
INFLATION: after worldwide inflation hit, the rate came down faster in the US than any G7 nation, and it's been back to the "target rate" since June 2023. Image
Not coincidentally, US corporations also posted *all-time* record profits during the period in which inflation was at its worst, by most experts’ accounts contributing 50-60% of it, as opposed to the 10-12% average we see otherwise.

epi.org/blog/corporate…
Image
Read 18 tweets
Jun 9, 2022
On January 6th, 2021, Trump supporters—fueled by weeks of lies and violent rhetoric on a “stolen” election—attempted Insurrection to stop the certification of Biden’s win. A THREAD of all the things we have learned about the Seditious Conspiracy that led to that tragic event:
Before we start: the fact that ALL of Trumpworld's lawsuits lost in court would be enough for most to know there's no evidence the election was “stolen,” but if not, here’s Giuliani admitting (under oath) they didn’t even check if the claims were true.

washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
And contrary to claims from Trumpworld, the majority of these cases were decided on the merits, not on a question of standing.

politifact.com/factchecks/202…
Read 69 tweets
Nov 1, 2020
Final Biden v. Trump UPDATE

Nat’l: Biden +9.0/Clinton +5.2
EC: Biden 279-121 (+178)/Clinton 223-179 (+43)

Biden 50%+ w/lead greater than all undecideds + 3rd party in ELEVEN battlegrounds, ZERO for Clinton

THREAD on polling, early vote, exit polls, and my GUESS at the outcome
NOTES (con’t):

1. "Battleground": ≤10% in 2016 results or 2020 averages

2. Likely Voter (LV), otherwise Registered Voter (RV)

3. Polls w/3rd party used when given

4. Turnout-hypothesizing polls not used

5. No partisan polls

5. Outliers (10%+ off of average) excluded
ETERNAL REMINDERS:

1. 2016 nat'l + battlegrounds polling AVERAGES were accurate (≥5%), except WI/IA:

aapor.org/Education-Reso…

2. The maps above are NOT A FORECAST; it is a REPORT on the current data. My GUESS is given at the end of the thread.
Read 48 tweets
Oct 23, 2020
Biden v. Trump 10/23 UPDATE

Nat’l: Biden +9.9/Clinton +7.1
EC: Biden 279-124 (+155)/Clinton 272-180 (+92)

AND Biden 50%+ in ELEVEN battlegrounds (49%+ in 13), ZERO for Clinton

PLUS Biden lead greater than undecideds + 3rd party in TEN battlegrounds, ZERO for Clinton

THREAD...
NOTES (con’t):

1. "Battleground": ≤10% in 2016 results or 2020 averages

2. Likely Voter (LV) when available, otherwise Registered Voter (RV); no Adult (A)

3. Polls w/3rd party used when given

4. Turnout-hypothesizing polls not used

5. Outliers (10%+ off of average) excluded
ETERNAL REMINDERS:

1. 2016 nat'l + battlegrounds polling AVERAGES were accurate (≥5%), except WI/IA:

aapor.org/Education-Reso…

2. This is NOT A FORECAST; it is a REPORT on the current data. Earliest guesses at election outcome on 11/1, and probably with caveats.
Read 17 tweets
Oct 15, 2020
Biden v. Trump 10/15 UPDATE

Nat’l: Biden +11.2/Clinton +6.2
EC: Biden 273-124 (+149)/Clinton 272-180 (+92)

AND Biden 50%+ in NINE battlegrounds (49%+ in 13), ZERO for Clinton

Biden lead greater than all undecideds + 3rd party in NINE battlegrounds, ZERO for Clinton

THREAD... ImageImageImageImage
NOTES (con’t):

1. "Battleground": ≤10% in 2016 results or 2020 averages

2. Likely Voter (LV) when available, otherwise Registered Voter (RV); no Adult (A)

3. Polls w/3rd party used when given

4. Turnout-hypothesizing polls not used

5. Outliers (10%+ off of average) excluded
ETERNAL REMINDERS:

1. 2016 nat'l + battlegrounds polling AVERAGES were accurate (≥5%), except WI/IA:

aapor.org/Education-Reso…

2. This is NOT A FORECAST; it is a REPORT on the current data. Earliest possible guess at election outcome 11/1, if then, and probably with caveats.
Read 41 tweets
Oct 1, 2020
@JoeBiden v. Trump 10/1 UPDATE

Nat’l: Biden +7.9 / Clinton +3.0
Electoral College votes: Biden 279-124 (+155) / Clinton 217-187 (+30)

Biden 50%+ in EIGHT battlegrounds, 49%+ in TWELVE
ZERO for Clinton; highest 44.3%, ≤42% in 15

>1%+ change since 9/15:
9 --> Biden
2 --> Trump ImageImageImageImage
NOTES (con’t):

1. "Battleground": ≤10% in 2016 results or 2020 polling averages

2. LV when available, otherwise RV; no A

3. Battleground polls w/3rd party used when available

4. Turnout-hypothesizing versions of polls not used

5. Outliers (10%+ off of average) excluded
ETERNAL REMINDERS:

1. 2016 nat'l + battlegrounds polling AVERAGES were accurate (≥5%), except WI/IA:

aapor.org/Education-Reso…

2. This thread is NOT A FORECAST; it is a REPORT on current data. Earliest possible guess at election outcome 11/1, if then, and probably with caveats.
Read 41 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(