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Rob Lee

@RALee85

Sep 22, 2020 • 8 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X

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The Western Military District announced that a Russian Su-30 (presumably Su-30SM) fighter crashed in Tver today. Both crewmembers ejected safely.
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…

The военный осведомитель channel is saying that the Su-30SM that crashed today was actually shot down by a Su-35S fighter that accidentally shot the fighter with its cannon. 2/
t.me/milinfolive/63…

The Su-35S fighter had its missiles removed, but someone forgot to unload its cannon's ammunition as well before conducting simulated dog fighting. 3/

Photo from the search for the Su-30’s crash location. An eyewitness said she saw 3 aircraft in the sky, and that one began to smoke before its crew ejected. 4/
t.me/Lshot/21059

Footage of the Su-30 fighter’s crash site. 5/
t.me/Lshot/21106

Photos from the crash site. It seems the Su-30 hit the ground at a high angle. 6/
t.me/Lshot/21101

BMPD has more information about the crashed Su-30 fighter. It is reportedly a Su-30M2 fighter from the 3rd Composite Aviation Regiment (red 60 RF-95869) built in 2014 shot down by a Su-35S (red 22) built in 2019 from the 790th Fighter Aviation Regiment. 7/
bmpd.livejournal.com/4147236.html

Both TASS and Kommersant are reporting that the Su-30M2 was accidently shot down, so I feel confident that this is what occurred. Kommersant says the Su-35S' GSh-30-1 30mm cannon struck the Su-30M2, forcing the crew to eject. 8/
tass.ru/proisshestviya…
kommersant.ru/doc/4502438

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More from @RALee85

Rob Lee

@RALee85

Sep 21

Russian channels say that Ukrainian UAVs targeted the ammunition depot in Tikhoretsk, Krasnodar Krai.

t.me/bazabazon/31447
t.me/astrapress/647…
t.me/astrapress/647…
t.me/astrapress/647…
t.me/mash/57808

Video of an explosion. 2/
t.me/astrapress/647…

https://x.com/UAControlMap/status/1837322372635832765

https://x.com/UAControlMap/status/1837322372635832765

Read 4 tweets

Rob Lee

@RALee85

Sep 10

Video of an armored column with at least 8 tanks and armored vehicles from the Russian VDV's 51st Airborne Regiment assaulting Snagost in Kursk oblast. It appears Russia was able to get the armored force across the Seym River, despite Ukrainian strikes on the bridges. @Deepstate_UA says the situation has worsened on Ukraine's left flank in Kursk oblast.

t.me/infomil_live/9…
t.me/DniproOfficial…
t.me/DeepStateUA/20…

More likely that the advance was from Korenevo.

3/
t.me/DeepStateUA/20…

Read 10 tweets

Rob Lee

@RALee85

Sep 6

"Iran has sent short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, a move that will give Moscow another potent military tool to use in the war against Ukraine and follows stern Western warnings not to provide those arms to Moscow, according to U.S. and European officials." @wstrobel @mgordonwsj @laurnorman
wsj.com/world/u-s-tell…

"A U.S. official confirmed the missiles 'have finally been delivered'...

The shipment involves a couple of hundred short-range ballistic missiles, according to Western officials. Iran has a variety of such weapons, with a range stretching up to around 500 miles.

'This is not the end,' a senior European official said, noting that Iran is expected to keep weapons flowing into Russia"

.@AlbertoNardelli and @nat_droz also report that Iran has sent ballistic missiles to Russia.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Read 8 tweets

Rob Lee

@RALee85

Sep 3

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1830569240992137524

Another Ukrainian FPV employing some form of incendiary munition on a tree line by Ukraine’s 42nd Mechanized Brigade.
t.me/PERUN_42/78

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1830569240992137524

Videos from Ukraine's 116th and 60th Mechanized Brigades of FPVs with incendiary munitions. 2/

t.me/khornegroup/26…
hromadske.ua/viyna/230695-u…
facebook.com/60ombr/videos/…

The video from Ukraine's 116th Mechanized Brigade.

Read 21 tweets

Rob Lee

@RALee85

Sep 2

I think Biddle is right that authorizing the use of longer-range strikes into Russia wouldn't be decisive on its own, but I also think this is an unfair burden to apply to the delivery of weapons or restrictions. People often say sanctions are ineffective if they fail to deter or stop a war, but they can still make it more difficult for the target to wage that war.

Most of Russia's Su-34 glide bomb carriers are no longer operated from airbases within ATACMS or Storm Shadow range; however, the S-300/S-400 that struck Kharkiv yesterday would be within range of ATACMS, and air defenses have a priority ATACMS target in occupied areas. One of the main benefits of allowing HIMARS' GMLRS strikes into Russian territory after the Kharkiv offensive began was that Kharkiv gained a reprieve from S-300/S-400 strikes. It seems that is no longer the case.

Of course, allowing these strikes would help Ukraine hold the buffer zone in Kursk, which could become more difficult this winter. It's also worth noting that Ukraine's campaign of targeting Russian infrastructure is being accomplished with Ukrainian-built UAVs and missiles.

Read 4 tweets