Weekly live look-in at 416 Active Listings 👀
Bit less Freehold inventory than last couple of years.
Way more Condo inventory than last couple of years.
Let's look a bit deeper... /1
The following two charts are on the same scales. Amount of 30+ day listings are in the same ballpark, but you can see percentage of "fresh" listings is a lot higher on Freehold (30.6% vs. 23.8%). /2
Rolling 30 days of sales held even for Condos, but listings rose again, so MOI edged up. Now highest since May 19, when it was on the way down from COVID peak. Freehold held same as R30 sales +3.5% from last week, and listings +2.4%. /3
Somebody was asking me about Sold Conditionally (SC) in the last week. In Condos, I've found low number correlates to weaker market, and high number (like that 22.6%) corresponds to hotter market. Worst week in last 3 years was 6.5% back on Apr 14. Pretty much back at that. /4
And we're seeing highest share since Jan 2018 of Condos on a price change. So story continues to be several weak signs in Condo market, but Freeholds still looking okay. /5
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Crazy shifts this week as the fall market has officially kicked off. 🍂
Let's start with Freeholds. Note that weekly bump. Higher than any fall in the last 7 (but for one week of 3,040 in 2018) and it's only first week of fall season. 🧵/1
The week-over-week (w/w) change was ⬆️428 listings for Freeholds (houses). Below's the equivalent week in the last 7 years. Usually the weeks leading up to and including Labour Day ⬇️w/w and then things start to grow.
2018 +324
2019 +258
2020 +320
2021 +248
2022 +135
2023 +213
2024 +428
/2
Here's a different look. Number of Freehold listings 0-7 DOM:
9/3: 314 (was 298 week before)
9/10: 962
Tripled! Now, a bunch of those are going to be re-listings ("Hey let's terminated and put it back fresh after Labour Day"), but a bunch are brand new too. /3
Here's a rental eviction story a friend of mine is letting me share, from the N12 notice (family member) to the recently concluded LTB hearing. So grab a ☕️, sit back 🪑, and read this 🧵 to see the outcome. /1
July 2020 - "I texted him at 9:30am asking about cockroaches I had seen in the apartment in the last few weeks.. he replied a few hours later asking me if the type and let me know his mom would be moving in.. all in the same message with the 🙏at the end. Next day sent N12." /2
He'd lived there 9 YEARS.
"I had a feeling it was bullshit but really what could I do with no proof.. I was tempted to stay and wait for it to get tied up in the LTB, some part of me believed it was possible he was being truthful."
Since CBC Marketplace likes investigating, I thought I'd do my own investigation on the house in the Real Estate "exposé" that aired last night, which centered around this house in Vaughan. Here's a bit more info for you in this 🧵/1
The owner was complaining about how they listed on the MLS offering to pay 1% commission to the "co-operating brokerage" (buyer's agent), which is short of the more common 2.5% commission offered in the GTA market. She claimed that agents were "steering" their clients away. /2
The CBC investigation with the large sample size of 3 agents, found 2 of them appearing to discourage their buyers (don't know if they were actually clients because they didn't mention if they'd actually signed Buyer Representation Agreements, which is no small matter). /3
So CBC is running a show tonight (which I'm PRVing). Here's the article previewing it. I got emails this afternoon from TRREB and OREA about it this aft, so it might be getting some play.
Here's the Sept 2nd RECO bulletin referred to by TRREB above, and in the article where it said RECO "issued a notic ice about steering to the over 93,000 real estate agents, brokers and brokerages under its purview." /3
TRREB has released its September #torontorealestate numbers. They like to accentuate the stats that would indicate everything is awesome, but let me point out 5⃣ STATS SHOWING MARKET COOLING ❄️ /1
First let me say it's not a COLD market yet by any means. But problem is everyone just likes to look at YoY change. When you think about it, 12 months is a somewhat arbitrary period to compare to. So September sales are way ⬆️(42%) and average prices are also ⬆️ (14%) /2
1⃣ AVERAGE YoY PRICE GROWTH IS SLOWING.
In July it was +16.9%
In August it was +20.1%
In September that slowed right down to +14.0%
Note a good chunk of the price growth is due to mix (less condo apts, more detached). /3
Some weekly #torontorealestate sales numbers in this thread. Firstly, week over week pattern this year continued to follow same as last year (only couple of deviations on here, main one being Labour Day one week later this year). /1
The total sales in the 416 in the past 4 weeks cumulative have been just 1% below 2019, with this week being flat. /2
But "tale of two cities" continues, with freehold (lowrise houses) selling stronger than last year and condos (apts and townhouses combined) selling weaker of late (and didn't show the huge "pent-up demand" that houses did. /3