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The Reckoning 💥 Profile picture
@sethjlevy
Sep 22, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
From my article “Who Trapped Who”

politicalspeculation.com/post/who-trapp…

NBC News: “In phone calls to McMaster — the first of which took place last fall — Trump told his second national security adviser that he missed him, according to two people familiar with the conversations.” 1/X
“It’s a sentiment the president has also expressed to White House aides, they said. Trump has solicited McMaster's advice on various national security challenges, even asking McMaster whom he should nominate to lead the Pentagon, they said.” 2/x
Me:”...given everything everyone is certain of about McMaster and his involvement in undermining Trump why would Trump be calling him and expressing his frustration with Bolton? Seemingly Trump has been baiting this Ukraine affair for a lot longer than I previously assumed.” 3/x
Trump today: 4/x
So you have to ask yourself, Trump lucky again or McMaster lure? /end
cc: @DarnelSugarfoo

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More from @sethjlevy

The Reckoning 💥 Profile picture
Sep 14, 2023
It is possible that a tape exists that makes clear that Biden was fully aware of what Hunter was doing and reveals that at a minimum Joe was aligned with him.

In that scenario, it is possible that the powers behind the scenes are effectively already conceding the Presidency.
If that tape truly exists, it is my speculation that Trump knew it existed way back in 2020. But at that time, after the impeachment and in the middle of Covid, there wasn’t any real way to effectively prosecute the case. At that time, it would have been perceived as Trump abusing his power to hurt Joe. Now it’s not a story about Trump abusing power because Trump isn’t at the helm. Instead it is properly received and understood as a story about Biden’s corruption.
If you go back over the last six months this feels like a slow and purposeful role out. So many things link to other things and you either have to believe Republicans keep getting lucky with one thing after another or this was all known in advance.
Read 6 tweets
The Reckoning 💥 Profile picture
Aug 23, 2023
🧵

Let’s discuss what each candidate needs to get done at the debate tonight.

For each person the expectations and goals is mostly a function of their current position and their short term and long term goals. /1
Given the amount of media consumed with Trump coverage, this may be their only chance to get their message out to a broader audience.

Only a few, like Tim Scott and DeSantis, have the means to put up ads in volume.

Tonight is crucial if they hope to break out from the pack. /2
DeSantis:

No one has more on the line than Ron.

It’s not just that he has to reverse his decline, it’s that all his viability chips are in the Iowa caucus basket.

Does he need to win Iowa? Not necessarily. But he needs to over perform and close most of the gap with Trump. /3
Read 16 tweets
The Reckoning 💥 Profile picture
Aug 16, 2023
The “unite the country” theme is exactly wrong for this moment in time.

Both tactically and politically.

You don’t unite with people who support the corrupt abuse of power to destroy you.

This is a political war. We’re in the midst of battle.

You unite when the war is done
Does anyone believe that as you tear down the administrative state and reform the FBI/DOJ with the media pitching a daily fit that the 50% of the country that supports Democrats are going to seek to unite with you?

We need to fight.

We need a fighter.
Ron keeps promoting his accomplishments in Florida but any honest description of those accomplishments has to acknowledge that in Florida you have all of the political and legislative forces aligned with him, not against him.

And he has a mostly compliant media infrastructure.
Read 10 tweets
The Reckoning 💥 Profile picture
Aug 7, 2023
Since Bill Barr has been in the media so much lately, I think this is a good time for me to write my wrap up on my Spygate speculation.

I’ll say this right up front, I stand by everything I wrote.

Not just the predictions but also the analysis.

Let’s go through it. /1
Early on, after Trump fired Comey and when everyone was screaming how Mueller would destroy Trump, I speculated that Trump actually was hoping to receive what I termed a “clean bill of health”. Meaning he saw value in a person like Mueller proclaiming there was no collusion. /2
To this day Trump uses “No collusion!” in his narrative around all of the hoaxes. In fact it’s one of the most powerful weapons he has in undermining the current prosecutions by showing how from the start, all of the attacks have been baseless. /3
Read 17 tweets
The Reckoning 💥 Profile picture
Aug 2, 2023
I found this article from @NYMag titled “Trump Could Win Another Lesser-of-Two-Evils Election”. I think it’s important to understand the dynamics driving the current tight race that can and I believe will result in a clear electoral Trump victory. /1

nymag.com/intelligencer/…
The reality is that Trump overperformed amongst the crowd who “hate ‘em both” not just in 2016 but also in 2020, winning them by 17%. The problem? Their share of the electorate dropped from 18% to 3%. In 2020 voters mostly just hated Trump. /2 Image
As I keep saying, 2024 isn’t 2020. In fact the percentage of the electorate that hates both candidates could be at an all time high in 2024, as high as 21% according to the June CNN poll.

The Grandpa Joe schtick is wearing off and people are seeing through the mirage. /3 Image
Read 6 tweets
The Reckoning 💥 Profile picture
Aug 2, 2023
The reality was that courts refused to actually hear cases for technical reasons based on standing and timing. None of them assessed the actual merits.

Trump’s desire to send the question back to the legislatures FOR THEM TO DETERMINE, was both reasonable and legally possible./1
The Special Counsel is attempting to turn a President’s right to lobby Congress into a crime.

Trump never forced Pence or any Congressperson or Senator to do anything.

He lobbied them. A completely legal endeavor. /2
Imagine going back into each interaction a company has with Congress to determine if any of the claims were considered false at the time they were used to lobby for beneficial outcomes and indicting.

That’s not our system. We leave the evaluation to the legislature. /3
Read 10 tweets

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