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The Reckoning 💥 Profile picture
@sethjlevy
Sep 22, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
From my article “Who Trapped Who”

politicalspeculation.com/post/who-trapp…

NBC News: “In phone calls to McMaster — the first of which took place last fall — Trump told his second national security adviser that he missed him, according to two people familiar with the conversations.” 1/X
“It’s a sentiment the president has also expressed to White House aides, they said. Trump has solicited McMaster's advice on various national security challenges, even asking McMaster whom he should nominate to lead the Pentagon, they said.” 2/x
Me:”...given everything everyone is certain of about McMaster and his involvement in undermining Trump why would Trump be calling him and expressing his frustration with Bolton? Seemingly Trump has been baiting this Ukraine affair for a lot longer than I previously assumed.” 3/x
Trump today: 4/x
So you have to ask yourself, Trump lucky again or McMaster lure? /end
cc: @DarnelSugarfoo

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More from @sethjlevy

The Reckoning 💥 Profile picture
Nov 4
Now that I’ve watched this, I understand why they put this out.

It’s something I pointed out on @davidchapman141 show regarding the way the states will report their vote totals.

~80% of GA and NC have already voted and are expected to announce those totals by 8 & 8:30.

1/4
This is a big problem for the Harris campaign especially if GA and NC are called quickly.

They will have voters still voting in states that will need people to turn out through the night in WI, MI, AZ and NV.

This could collapse late turn out and affect Senate races.

2/4
It’s not just about GA and NC being called.

It’s that they will reveal whether there was a larger than expected R to D crossover vote or if that was always just a Harris campaign fantasy.

If that concept is disproven early, that news will spread like wildfire.

3/4
Read 5 tweets
The Reckoning 💥 Profile picture
Sep 24
1/ 🚨 “Nearly all Gallup measures that have shown some relationship to past presidential election outcomes or that speak to current perceptions of the two major parties favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party.”

news.gallup.com/poll/651092/20…
2/ “Chief among these are Republican advantages in U.S. adults’ party identification and leanings, the belief that the GOP rather than the Democratic Party is better able to handle the most important problem facing the country, Americans’ dissatisfaction with the state of the nation, and negative evaluations of the economy with a Democratic administration in office.”
3/ “More U.S. adults identify as Republican or say they lean toward the Republican Party (48%) than identify as or lean Democratic (45%). Those figures are based on an average of Gallup polls taken during the third quarter”
Read 8 tweets
The Reckoning 💥 Profile picture
Sep 12
1/ I want to piggy back off of this to explain a fundamental dynamic that has changed since 2020.

Reels.

These are the mini snippet videos that people consume on platform like Tik Tok, Instagram, Facebook and even on X.

Although this existed in 2020 they are now ubiquitous.
2/ These mini videos consumed over and over throughout the day, day after day alters the impact and value analysis of events particularly video based events like a debate.

In the past snap polls had more significance because it was likely the only time the majority of people would consume the debate video content.
3/ As a result, asking people their view of who “won” the debate immediately following the airing of the debate made some sense.

But now, the live airing of the debate actually makes up a small percentage of the saturation of the content into the public consciousness.
Read 8 tweets
The Reckoning 💥 Profile picture
Jul 18
1/ Let’s talk about what we know about the entire career of Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. and how that informs this moment that he finds himself in.
2/ Joe Biden has spent a career leveraging his office to bring in money to his family.

He’s corrupt.

But he’s corrupt in a very particular way.

He sends his son and his brother out into the world to negotiate “business” deals.
3/ But… Hunter doesn’t call Joe “big guy” for nothing.

Hunter doesn’t put Joe on the phone with business opportunities for no reason.

You’ve seen Hunter, do you honestly believe he’s the one negotiating with the Chinese Communist Party?

No.

It’s Joe.

Obviously.
Read 14 tweets
The Reckoning 💥 Profile picture
Jul 12
Listen, it’s been fun mocking Biden.

And yes he’s old and decrepit.

But the media is lazy.

They want to pin where the race is on the debate and Biden’s mental decline.

Even if you accept the story about a progression that started 6 months ago, Trump was already ahead then. Image
So the debate is not the why.

Trump is ahead for other reasons.

Like immigration.

Like economic issues like inflation, energy and interest rates.

Like foreign policy.

Trump is ahead because the electorate wants a return to a Trumpian reality.

And Biden is decrepit.
What did Biden say about these core issues today at his press conference?

He said they’re all going great and if you don’t realize that then you’re stupid.

It was an arrogant and self absorbed portrayal of the country.

There was nothing to change or fix.

Just stay the course.
Read 4 tweets
The Reckoning 💥 Profile picture
Sep 14, 2023
It is possible that a tape exists that makes clear that Biden was fully aware of what Hunter was doing and reveals that at a minimum Joe was aligned with him.

In that scenario, it is possible that the powers behind the scenes are effectively already conceding the Presidency.
If that tape truly exists, it is my speculation that Trump knew it existed way back in 2020. But at that time, after the impeachment and in the middle of Covid, there wasn’t any real way to effectively prosecute the case. At that time, it would have been perceived as Trump abusing his power to hurt Joe. Now it’s not a story about Trump abusing power because Trump isn’t at the helm. Instead it is properly received and understood as a story about Biden’s corruption.
If you go back over the last six months this feels like a slow and purposeful role out. So many things link to other things and you either have to believe Republicans keep getting lucky with one thing after another or this was all known in advance.
Read 6 tweets

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