This is a big problem for the Harris campaign especially if GA and NC are called quickly.
They will have voters still voting in states that will need people to turn out through the night in WI, MI, AZ and NV.
This could collapse late turn out and affect Senate races.
2/4
Sep 24 ā¢ 8 tweets ā¢ 2 min read
1/ šØ āNearly all Gallup measures that have shown some relationship to past presidential election outcomes or that speak to current perceptions of the two major parties favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party.ā
news.gallup.com/poll/651092/20ā¦2/ āChief among these areĀ Republican advantages in U.S. adultsā party identification and leanings, the belief that the GOP rather than the Democratic Party is better able to handle the most important problem facing the country, Americansā dissatisfaction with the state of the nation, and negative evaluations of the economy with a Democratic administration in office.ā
Sep 12 ā¢ 8 tweets ā¢ 2 min read
1/ I want to piggy back off of this to explain a fundamental dynamic that has changed since 2020.
Reels.
These are the mini snippet videos that people consume on platform like Tik Tok, Instagram, Facebook and even on X.
Although this existed in 2020 they are now ubiquitous.
2/ These mini videos consumed over and over throughout the day, day after day alters the impact and value analysis of events particularly video based events like a debate.
In the past snap polls had more significance because it was likely the only time the majority of people would consume the debate video content.
Jul 18 ā¢ 14 tweets ā¢ 3 min read
1/ Letās talk about what we know about the entire career of Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. and how that informs this moment that he finds himself in.
2/ Joe Biden has spent a career leveraging his office to bring in money to his family.
Heās corrupt.
But heās corrupt in a very particular way.
He sends his son and his brother out into the world to negotiate ābusinessā deals.
Jul 12 ā¢ 4 tweets ā¢ 1 min read
Listen, itās been fun mocking Biden.
And yes heās old and decrepit.
But the media is lazy.
They want to pin where the race is on the debate and Bidenās mental decline.
Even if you accept the story about a progression that started 6 months ago, Trump was already ahead then.
So the debate is not the why.
Trump is ahead for other reasons.
Like immigration.
Like economic issues like inflation, energy and interest rates.
Like foreign policy.
Trump is ahead because the electorate wants a return to a Trumpian reality.
And Biden is decrepit.
Sep 14, 2023 ā¢ 6 tweets ā¢ 3 min read
It is possible that a tape exists that makes clear that Biden was fully aware of what Hunter was doing and reveals that at a minimum Joe was aligned with him.
In that scenario, it is possible that the powers behind the scenes are effectively already conceding the Presidency.
If that tape truly exists, it is my speculation that Trump knew it existed way back in 2020. But at that time, after the impeachment and in the middle of Covid, there wasnāt any real way to effectively prosecute the case. At that time, it would have been perceived as Trump abusing his power to hurt Joe. Now itās not a story about Trump abusing power because Trump isnāt at the helm. Instead it is properly received and understood as a story about Bidenās corruption.
Aug 23, 2023 ā¢ 16 tweets ā¢ 3 min read
š§µ
Letās discuss what each candidate needs to get done at the debate tonight.
For each person the expectations and goals is mostly a function of their current position and their short term and long term goals. /1
Given the amount of media consumed with Trump coverage, this may be their only chance to get their message out to a broader audience.
Only a few, like Tim Scott and DeSantis, have the means to put up ads in volume.
Tonight is crucial if they hope to break out from the pack. /2
Aug 16, 2023 ā¢ 10 tweets ā¢ 2 min read
The āunite the countryā theme is exactly wrong for this moment in time.
Both tactically and politically.
You donāt unite with people who support the corrupt abuse of power to destroy you.
This is a political war. Weāre in the midst of battle.
Does anyone believe that as you tear down the administrative state and reform the FBI/DOJ with the media pitching a daily fit that the 50% of the country that supports Democrats are going to seek to unite with you?
We need to fight.
We need a fighter.
Aug 7, 2023 ā¢ 17 tweets ā¢ 3 min read
Since Bill Barr has been in the media so much lately, I think this is a good time for me to write my wrap up on my Spygate speculation.
Iāll say this right up front, I stand by everything I wrote.
Not just the predictions but also the analysis.
Letās go through it. /1
Early on, after Trump fired Comey and when everyone was screaming how Mueller would destroy Trump, I speculated that Trump actually was hoping to receive what I termed a āclean bill of healthā. Meaning he saw value in a person like Mueller proclaiming there was no collusion. /2
Aug 2, 2023 ā¢ 6 tweets ā¢ 2 min read
I found this article from @NYMag titled āTrump Could Win Another Lesser-of-Two-Evils Electionā. I think itās important to understand the dynamics driving the current tight race that can and I believe will result in a clear electoral Trump victory. /1
nymag.com/intelligencer/ā¦
The reality is that Trump overperformed amongst the crowd who āhate āem bothā not just in 2016 but also in 2020, winning them by 17%. The problem? Their share of the electorate dropped from 18% to 3%. In 2020 voters mostly just hated Trump. /2
Aug 2, 2023 ā¢ 10 tweets ā¢ 3 min read
The reality was that courts refused to actually hear cases for technical reasons based on standing and timing. None of them assessed the actual merits.
Trumpās desire to send the question back to the legislatures FOR THEM TO DETERMINE, was both reasonable and legally possible./1
The Special Counsel is attempting to turn a Presidentās right to lobby Congress into a crime.
Trump never forced Pence or any Congressperson or Senator to do anything.
He lobbied them. A completely legal endeavor. /2
Jul 19, 2023 ā¢ 13 tweets ā¢ 3 min read
It has long been my theory that the real reason Garland was convinced to raid Mar-a-Lago is that someone tipped them off that there were documents stored in Trumpās safe that in some manner connected him to the January 6 riots.
But when they got to the safe, it was emptyā¦
1/
That kind of documentary evidence of Trump personally involved in the riot would have severely damaged Trump. But it wasnāt actually there. So Garland was, at the end of that day, left to confront that he had no evidence to end Trump politically.
2/
Jul 17, 2023 ā¢ 10 tweets ā¢ 2 min read
From day one DeSantis lied to the publicās face about something so basic and transparently true that it set the stage for everything else.
āIām not runningā āIām on a book tour.ā
The consultants told him
that the misrepresentations would help build momentum. 1/
Instead the primary base nationwide quickly soured. Why? If he will be this insincere about this what else will he misrepresent?
Well, sadly heās misrepresenting a lot.
He would have fired Fauci. ā
Trump only built 40 miles of wall. ā
Ukrain is a territorial dispute. ā
2/
Mar 26, 2023 ā¢ 4 tweets ā¢ 1 min read
The three-act structure:
Act 2: (Sound familiar?)
Mar 7, 2023 ā¢ 4 tweets ā¢ 1 min read
Fact 1: Trump was a total outsider in 2016 and was forced by the nature of our government structure to work with and hire people that were part of and therefore acceptable to the entrenched politicians.
Fact 2: Seven years after he was initially elected and after many elections have passed more politicians are aligned with Trump but the leadership particularly on the Senate side is vehemently opposed to Trump and his policies.
Mar 2, 2023 ā¢ 13 tweets ā¢ 4 min read
š§µ
Our system is built on the idea of the secret ballot.
Itās an important principle.
For it to function, it requires that we trust the officials in charge of the electioneering process.
Unfortunately the extreme tribalness of modern politics makes trusting very difficultā¦
In the past when most of the laws and case law were created, we did not have the technology to verify election outcomes. Now we do.
But there is an ingrained hesitation to pierce the vail out of a fear that individualās voting records will become public.
Mar 2, 2023 ā¢ 4 tweets ā¢ 1 min read
Even if you donāt believe they used fraud to elect Biden, itās impossible to deny that the entrenched powers used Covid to change historic electioneering norms and intervened in the free flow of information to rig the 2020 election and still only beat Trump by 40,000 in 3 states.
But Seth but Seth if they did it last time then theyāll just do it again.
Iāll say this. It worked last time because people were still living inside the Covid panic and were living under four straight year of the most intense Trump deranged propaganda campaign ever witnessed.
Feb 2, 2023 ā¢ 4 tweets ā¢ 1 min read
Not that I think @ScottAdamsSays actually cares about my process but here it is. It was simple. It was grounded in my analysis of the data. Not vaccine data which was very limited. No it was based on understanding Covid data and itās minuscule threat to a healthy person under 60.
Against that near zero risk backdrop I was being asked to take a vaccine developed using a technology that had never previously been used. So the risk of a novel vaccine with limited data outweighed the risk of a bevel virus that had been producing data for nearly a full year.
Jan 24, 2023 ā¢ 4 tweets ā¢ 2 min read
What is unsaid?
That the composition of the minority Republican caucus changed dramatically in January with the new Senators that were seated.
While they were telling you Trump failed, in reality 2022 was a huge step in reshaping the Senate.
Also Iām interested if the process by NARA that had them audit if there could be missing documents after Trump left office is a protocol or something they only did for Trump.
If in fact loose documents are such a threat then why isnāt there always an audit?
Dec 3, 2022 ā¢ 7 tweets ā¢ 1 min read
1/ We know from all of the revelations during the Spygate investigations and the IG reports that FBI agents regularly meet and talk with journalists. We also know that many journalists are effectively political campaign operatives.
2/ Clearly there was a ton of buffering and pre planning to deflect the Hunter laptop story. They knew they were going to effectively be interfering in an election. They strategized to use the Russian disinformation op as the excuse.
