BillStepien Profile picture
Sep 22, 2020 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
We are 7 weeks from Nov. 3rd.

Over the last few weeks, GOP voter registration continues to outpace DEMS in key battlegrounds with partisan registration.

This growth is after GOP registration gains across battlegrounds since Election Day 2016.
📈 PENNSYLVANIA 📈

From Nov. 2016 through Labor Day, GOP gained 166k+ voters by margin vis-a-vis DEMS.

Since Labor Day, GOP gained 16k+ additional voters by margin vis-a-vis DEMS.

Republicans increased margins in 64 of the Commonwealth's 67 counties since Labor Day.
📈 FLORIDA 📈

From Nov. 2016 through last week, GOP gained ~150k by margin vis-a-vis DEMS.

In the last six weeks, the GOP gained ~10k voters by margin vis-a-vis DEMS.

Republicans have the best margin in voter registration they have had in decades.
📈 NORTH CAROLINA 📈

From Nov. 2016 through two weeks ago, GOP gained ~225k by margin vis-a-vis DEMS.

In the last week, the GOP gained an additional ~3k voters by margin vis-a-vis DEMS.

Republicans have the best margin in voter registration they have had in decades.
📈 IOWA 📈

Since Biden became DEM nominee in April, GOP has gained ~18k voters by margin vis-a-vis DEMS.

In the last month, GOP reg outpaced DEM reg by nearly 3:1.
No other way to cut these numbers...

@realDonaldTrump is bringing more folks to the Republican party in the homestretch of this campaign.

MOMENTUM

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More from @BillStepien

Nov 2, 2020
Pres. Trump will head to Kenosha later today.

In Wisconsin, weeks ago the partisan makeup of the electorate was D +12.3 - today it’s D +5.9.

Going into Election Day in ‘16, the gap was D +9.6.

Pres. Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 100k net votes.
Nevada?

Democrats jumped out to a D +27.3 advantage during AB only voting. Today it’s D +5.

Flashback: going into Election Day in 2016, the gap was D +7.9.

President Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 50k net votes.
Like 2016, Pres. Trump will end the day in Michigan.

Congrats: Democrats have banked their high propensity voters. We have nearly 2 million voters left.

Pres. Trump’s E Day margin needs to be 350k - we project an Election Day votes cast margin of 400k+ for Pres. Trump.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 2, 2020
So there has been a lot of bluster, from pollsters and pundits, about what we should expect tomorrow.

President Trump has the momentum in this race and the math available to him to win on Election Day.

🚨 👇 THREAD 👇 🚨
President Trump is ahead of where he was in 2016, by a very key measure.

It’s the measure that actually matters. Votes cast, and votes left to be cast.

You’ve been seeing reports of Democrats being nervous, and well, they should be.
Let’s start in Ohio, where Joe Biden is wasting a few hours today.

Weeks ago the partisan makeup of the electorate was D +10, today it’s D +0.6.

Going into E Day in 2016, the gap was D +2.5.

Pres. Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 400k net votes.
Read 7 tweets

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