For some reason, I have a lot of tweets in my 'interactions' at the moment about party identification. In our seven battleground state polls this month:
Horserace: Biden 49, Trump 41
Party ID: R+1, 29 to 30
2016 vote: Trump 39, Clinton 38
Horserace: Biden 49, Trump 41
Party ID: R+1, 29 to 30
2016 vote: Trump 39, Clinton 38
Biden leads 48 to 42 among voters who participated in the 2016 election
This group of respondents is R+2, 32-30
2016 vote: Trump 45, Clinton 43
This group of respondents is R+2, 32-30
2016 vote: Trump 45, Clinton 43
https://twitter.com/Barnes_Law/status/1308518652010876928?s=20
In our polling, a fairly small chunk of 2016 voters stay home (this is normal), and they're replaced by a somewhat larger chunk of new voters who either sat out last time, moved, or are newly registered. This is normal, and the amount of churn in the electorate is similar to '16
This churn does some interesting things. In almost every election, the voters who drop out (voted '16, not 20) lean Dem, but so do the voters who join.
In our polling, for ex., Biden only leads 47-44 among the '16 voters who *remain* in the electorate
In our polling, for ex., Biden only leads 47-44 among the '16 voters who *remain* in the electorate
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