While the plan seems to be: hope it’s a close election and try to invalidate as many ballots as possible (as of now, a potential, though no means most likely, outcome) the flip side is that there’s a lot of poli sci research that says talking like this only demotivates voters.
This is all coming from a good place but I cannot overstate how unhelpful this rhetoric is towards encouraging people to vote.
This isn’t what Chris and other liberal pundits are doing. They’re presenting a potential scenario as likely and then implying that it will hand Trump the White House again. It’s not preparing people, it makes people feel as if voting is useless.
Like, yes, this is basically what Bush did in Florida in 2000, but it would’ve been close to impossible if we were talking about a few thousand vote difference versus a few hundred. Take a deep breath. Keep your head down and focus. 42 days.
One more thing: if you are a professional election forecaster with a twitter following and you're spending your time doomcasting low-probability scenarios to scare Democrats instead of level-headedly engaging with the likelihood of these scenarios, pick a different profession.
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In AZ AG, Mayes is up by 771 votes.
Remaining:
Apache: 4,534
Cochise: 936
Coconino: 489
Gila: 55
Maricopa: 12,277
Mohave: 700
Navajo: 310
Pima: 5,416
Pina: 1,408
Yavapai: 750
Yuma: 670
EV Needed to Process: 9,695
Provisionals: 5,315
Ballots ready to Process: 12,985
Total: 27,545
If every single one of those provisionals counts (unlike), Hamadeh would need 51.40% of the remaining vote to win.
Yes, if the Apache votes are from the Navajo Nation, the math becomes harder for Hamadeh. Hopefully we know today. Hamadeh, thus far, is the last election denier left standing in a swing state that was up for election this year.
Lake continues to fall behind. She's running out of red county vote (only about 25k votes left there) and are still more votes left in the traditional D counties. Big question is what's to come from these last few Maricopa dumps. (fixed transposing error)
I think it's possible that Lake could get a 10% margin out of one or more of the remaining Maricopa batches. Where I'm skeptical is that she could somehow average that for the rest of what's left. Trump couldn't do that with a more R late ballot batch.
Coconino hasn't posted to the AZ SoS site yet, but it was the same story -- Lake now needs every county's remaining ballots to be more than 15% to the right of what the county is currently reporting to win. That's tough, if not very unlikely.
In the last small Coconino update that hasn't posted to the SoS page, Lake actually hit that 20% shift to the right that she needed -- but it was a small drop of only 2000ish votes (I think) and she needs that to be replicated everywhere. It's an extremely high hill to climb.
Today should give us a better guess, but the remaining vote by LD in Maricopa seems red but not overwhelmingly so, not to mention that Hobbs will continue to get votes out of Pima. And there are only 29509 votes left in the very red counties that Lake is winning.