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Tyler Dinucci! Profile picture
Tyler Dinucci!
@TylerDinucci
Michelle Boyd Waters, M.Ed. 📚 📝 Profile picture 1 subscribed
Nov 18, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
We need a new special counsel for who’s in charge of the technical optimization at Game Freak……… may need to get Hagued
Nov 16, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
In AZ AG, Mayes is up by 771 votes.
Remaining:
Apache: 4,534
Cochise: 936
Coconino: 489
Gila: 55
Maricopa: 12,277
Mohave: 700
Navajo: 310
Pima: 5,416
Pina: 1,408
Yavapai: 750
Yuma: 670

EV Needed to Process: 9,695
Provisionals: 5,315
Ballots ready to Process: 12,985
Total: 27,545 If every single one of those provisionals counts (unlike), Hamadeh would need 51.40% of the remaining vote to win.
Nov 15, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
yikes tho not sure Baugh can keep that margin up huh looks like OC in general had a very red ballot drop tonight
Nov 13, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Lake needed to win these by a 30% margin. These are actually bluer than the county’s current margin. Again, she’s missing her marks. Lake continues to fall behind. She's running out of red county vote (only about 25k votes left there) and are still more votes left in the traditional D counties. Big question is what's to come from these last few Maricopa dumps. (fixed transposing error) Image
Nov 13, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Coconino hasn't posted to the AZ SoS site yet, but it was the same story -- Lake now needs every county's remaining ballots to be more than 15% to the right of what the county is currently reporting to win. That's tough, if not very unlikely. In the last small Coconino update that hasn't posted to the SoS page, Lake actually hit that 20% shift to the right that she needed -- but it was a small drop of only 2000ish votes (I think) and she needs that to be replicated everywhere. It's an extremely high hill to climb.
Nov 12, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
We’re all going to become very familiar with the phrase “motion to vacate the chair” over the next two years. Yes.
Nov 12, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Made a quick model, a normal thing to do on a Friday night, but here is why I think Hobbs is the favorite right now. I modeled out what it would be like if every county reported its remaining ballots with a % shift to the right. Image Please note that Excel is not my forte and I could've messed something up. But based on this model, every county would need to shift what its reported so far 15% to the right in order for Lake to win by... 6 votes.
Nov 10, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
It seems there’s as much as mail 8000 votes left in Douglas but the mail has been relatively D friendly, comparably. I’m not sure if Laxalt could squeeze more than a 2k net out of those, at best. Countered with it seems there’s maybe fewer votes than thought left in Clark but I’m not exactly what was said because I missed the press conference and most of you are prone to hyperbole!
Nov 10, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
This isn't just good news for Hobbs -- it's also good for the other non-SoS, non-Treasurer row office Dems. Also depending where these ballots are from, could make AZ-01 winnable for Dems. Good news ≠ will win, remember that. But it makes the math easier. Also makes the climb significantly harder for Masters, not like it wasn't hard enough already.
Nov 10, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
This is about a 10% shift to the left from the current vote. Would track with heavily D ballots remaining in Clark and relatively D ballots in Washoe. There’s some vote left in Douglas County and Carson City based on the Times estimate (always could be iffy). Douglas cast more votes in 2020 than Lyon but Douglas is redder. Carson is bluerish and smaller than both so the late votes there would probably be a wash.
Nov 10, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
I think Dems are more likely than not in WA-3, WA-8, CA-47, and CA-49, though maybe the latter two has more ? because we need to see if the late mail is more like 2020 or 2018 or a mix of both.

The tough part is winning 4 of the 6: AZ-1, CA-41, CO-3, CA-13, CA-22, and OR-5. AZ-01: Hodge is up by 4,299 votes, or 1.6%. The problem is that I would expect the Maricopa later vote to be - on the whole - a bit redder, though it depends if the late vote looks like more 2018, 2020, or a mix.
Nov 9, 2022 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Let's take a look at the House based on what the Times calls are. I'm less sure about what type of vote is left in each state, so we may have to wait. Right now, Republicans are up in 197 seats and Democrats in 174. I'm gonna mostly save any guesses of NY until I get a better sense of if there's vote left there and if it's absentee or what. Let's go with the easy calls that tbh NYT should've called by now

ME-2: +D
CT-5: +D
NY-18: +D
NJ-7: +R
PA-7: +D
PA-8: +D
PA-17: +D
MD-6: +D
198 R/181 D
Nov 8, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The thing I've taken the most from the early vote and some turnout anecdotes today is that both parties seem to have their bases showing up and it'll probably come down to how Indies split. Points to a Dem loss but not a 2010/2014-style one. Well, except in Florida. Florida tho, yeeeeeeesh.
Nov 4, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
So for this, a few things: 1) I think Kari Lake would've won regardless of Dem money. 2) The money that Dem spent probably didn't move the needle much. 3) It does not speak well of the GOP for how they responded to these ads. 4) Dems shouldn't have done it for reasons 1 and 2. The effect that this type of meddling has in higher profile statewide races like Governor or Senate is probably not that great, especially when the margin of victory (Mastriano, for example) is really big. But it's muddied the waters is a bad idea.
Nov 4, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
I think in most cases no but I do believe that it Republicans win unified government in Wisconsin and Arizona they may change the law to do something like give the legislature final say on the electors sent to Congress. I don’t think the issue is necessarily once the electors reach Congress, I think the bigger issue is how the states change their rules beforehand to remove democratic elements to elections effectively giving a highly gerrymandered state leg (in Wisconsin) a veto over the populace
Nov 3, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Most of the non-partisan polls have Walker getting single-digit Black support (though Trump did better than where these polls show Walker and it’s possible that Walker could do better than these numbers once undecideds vote). But Republican pollsters gave him getting around ~20%. This doesn’t mean the Republicans polls are wrong, but that seems to be wheee the delta is coming from with Republican pollsters versus non-Republican pollster.
Oct 30, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
betting markets have also surged for Lula in the last few minutes. I didn't really have a good sense of the benchmarks but smart people on twitter are saying this take so I think it's probably true?
Oct 18, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Brian has again decided to type words. science should study his brain.
Oct 17, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
People should probably start mentally preparing themselves for a potentially rough night. Yes that’s exactly it that people are going to prioritize their economic interests in an inflationary economic period over over concerns.
Oct 16, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
dropping every single one of my life ambitions to try to get on the next season of the mole Avori is playing chess and everyone else is playing with a stick.
Oct 15, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
My no *tilts* (not tits!)/no skips Senate ratings Governor: