The debris object that ISS avoided is now available on SpaceTrack as 2018-084CQ, 46477, from the breakup of Japan's H-2A F40 rocket stage. At 2221:07 UTC it passed within a few km of ISS at a relative velocity of 14 6 km/s, 422 km over the Pitcairn Is in the S Pacific
Correction: it passed within a few km of the position ISS would have been at if it hadn't manuevered
H2A F40 launched GOSAT-2 in Oct 2018. The stage appears to have made a depletion burn to lower orbit from 597 x 618 km to 598 x 520 km. Nevertheless it underwent a major breakup on 2019 Feb 6.
77 debris objects have been cataloged from the breakup; 5 have reentered so far. This plot shows the locations at conjunction time of the remaining 72 (almost all in one plane) and the pre-maneuver track of ISS for +/- 10 min
Most of the debris objects are still at somewhat higher altitudes, but they will eventually decay through the ISS height range
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The planned trajectory of the North Korean satellite launch, as estimated by me based on debris warning areas, passes 500 km above the Okinawa region - higher than the International Space Station. The only landmass it goes directly over is the uninhabited island of Irisuna-jima.
It is possible that the second stage could shut down early, or that the yaw manuever prior to stage 2 ignition could go off course, so it is not completely *impossible* for debris from the launch to hit the Okinawa region. But it is very, very unlikely.
Thus, I consider Japanese goverment hyperventilation about the launch to be rather excessive.
Thanks to a tip from @martyn_williams I took a look at the warning areas for the upcoming (NET May 31) North Korean recon sat launch.
The map below shows the launch site, polygonal warning areas and (orange lines) my fit to the trajectories. (1/n)...
@martyn_williams I think the first and second warning areas correspond to first stage and nose fairing impact zones, and correspond to a -5650 x 150 km x 93.9 deg (sub)orbit (apogee not well constrained).
@martyn_williams Then the second stage makes a 'dog leg' yaw change to head southeast, firing at 1st stage apogee to a -5240 x 500 km x 75.7 deg orbit with impact east of the Phillipines. This trajectory has an apogee over 127.1E 26.1N.
On Tuesday at 2pm I'll be in room 205 for the "Space as an Environment" splinter session which will include an update on the issue of satellite constellations affecting ground based astronomy
That topic will be continued on Wed at 10am, room 201/202, for the "Space as an Environment" open house, where I'll be tabling and available for informal discussion about the satcon and other space env issues #AAS241
On Wed at 12.45 at the AAS reg desk I invite alumni of the SAO Astronomy Summer REU to join me for our traditional networking lunch expedition, actual eating venue still TBD #AAS241
The Japanese space agency JAXA is preparing to deploy 3 cubesats from the ISS.
The cubesats are stored in the J-SSOD #24 deployer, which was brought to ISS on Dragon CRS-26 and transferred internally to the Kibo module.
The Japanese JRMS robot arm has extracted J-SSOD #24 from the Kibo airlock and is now holding the deployer out against the direction of ISS motion so that the ejected sats will not recontact ISS.
The first sat to be ejected will be the 1U test satellite SS-1 (SuryaSat) from Surya University in Jakarta.
OK, it's Sunday night and I'm going to get technical on you.
You may be familiar with the Lagrange Points - specifically Sun-Earth L1 and L2 (SEL1 and SEL2), which are 1.5 million km towards noon and towards midnight respectively.
As the Earth goes round the Sun, L1 and L2 travel with it. So if you define a coordinate system which rotates around the Sun with the Earth, the L1 and L2 points are fixed in that system. One such system is GSE: Geocentric Solar Ecliptic.
LAUNCH of Falcon 9 at 2248 UTC Dec 16 from Cape Canaveral LC40 with two O3b-mPOWER communications satellites
20 first-gen O3b satellites were launched to 8000 km equatorial orbits in 2013 to 2019. They had a mass of 700 kg.
The new O3b mPOWER sats are Boeing 702X satellites with a . mass of 1700 kg each. I believe their size is around 1.5 x 3.0 x 3.0 m with about 27m solar panel span
Correction, O3b-mPOWER mass may be 2050 kg each, based on info in @SpaceflightNow 's coverage