Sonntag Edenhofer bei @JungNaiv? Mein Zwerchfell krampft in resignierter Erwartung fehlender Einordnung:
In 2˚-Budgets, langsam über 2 Dekaden funzt CO2-Preis🌍sozial.
Bloß: -50% aller THG bis 2030👉zu 90% Sicherheit overshoot auf 2.1˚; 1.9˚bis 2100.
Und 2˚≙ ~500mio Refugees👎
Mit 0 sozio-politischer Weitsicht framen Ökonomen Klima als reines Geld- und discount-Thema. #Econobscene
So würden wir 2˚vor 2050 erreichen und auf dem Weg dahin? Globale Destabilisierung.
Der Klima-Exodus aus Levante & N-Afrika zieht an bei ~1.5˚/2030...
2010 hätten Tippelschrittchen noch gereicht, 2020 isses schlicht zu spät.
Outside the📦denken lässt uns nah an 1.5˚bleiben und vermeidet globale Destabilisierung wegen wachsender Klimaflucht. Lasst uns Mehrheiten schaffen für 1 solidarische Hauruckaktion💪
Die vorgeschlagene solidarische Transformation auf Rationen und NON-profit in wachsender Staatenallianz macht uns nach meiner Rechnung in 10Jahren Klima-neutral: 10Gt/a. (Stahl Zement🚢✈️bliebe auf heutigem CO2-Level)
Don't panic: auch wenn die Allianz erst 2025 begänne, wär's so
Wir brauchen dafür bloß Mehrheiten. Nicht 100%. Die reicheren 20% in unseren Gesellschaften, die in den 10J auf Rationen für alle auf alles aus ihrer eigenen Sicht am meisten "leiden" und die Begründung vll nicht akzeptieren, sind für Mehrheiten irrelevant
Gelebte Solidarität in der vorgeschlagenen Hauruckaktion hat mehr Effekte: 1) in den ca 10J der Aktion werden wir peu à peu auch der ungeheuerlichen Ausmaße gewahr. Erleben wir das aber in globaler Solidarität statt in wachsender Resignation, schwächen wir viele Impacts mit💪💚ab
Ohne solidarische Versorgung auf Rationen in den 10J
2) würde jedes regionale Klimadesaster Konflikt-Risiken erhöhen. 3) Nationalismus würde wachsen und Typen wie Trump, Modi, Bolsonaro, Farrage, Orban würden Klimaschutz stoppen.
3)Globaler Faschismus bis 2050 =40.000 #Moria|s
4)Die Hauruckaktion in einem non-profit System-Hiatus für 10Jahre gibt uns auch Zeit, um weitergehende Veränderungen zu diskutieren und ggf. einzuleiten. zB wie oben angedeutet: wie wir bisher Produkte ungeachtet ihres Ökozid-Potenzials fertigen, muss sich fundamental ändern uvm.
Warum Rationen für alle auf alles und non-profit?
Rationen senken Highspeed-Konsum und Highspeed-Mobilität massiv und führen in den, der Allianz beitretenden, reichen Staaten zu minus >= 35% CO2e.
Non-profit ermöglicht Abstellen/Umbau obsoleter Firmen/Jobs und Sozialsystemumbau.
Schaffen von Mehrheiten dafür geht über Information zu den Auswirkungen von 1.5, 2˚und 3˚👇, und ihren jeweiligen Budgets und Reduzierungs-Speeds. Da bisher keine Medien die 80% niedrigen Einkommensgruppen so informieren, geht die Wissensrevolution peu à peu auf örtlicher Ebene.
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@MarvinTBaumann @ClimateDad77 I get your psych. thinking. But. Sit down and sketch a project plan with milestones and deadlines for keeping tech-civilisation afloat. Don't forget culture change toward solidarity: You'll find that only today's decision makers in econ & politics still ⏩
@MarvinTBaumann @ClimateDad77 can change our trajectory on time=in budget. With "today's decision makers" I really mean today's. So it doesn't matter a lot if non-decision-makers get depressed [by the truth]. It's not in their hands anymore, anyway. Covid saw to that. (That's how close we are to deadlines!)⏩
@MarvinTBaumann @ClimateDad77 On the other hand: realizing the truth in the big likelihood of a total crash soon frees up resources for also realizing what can be done today to help crash survivors. It's not the "end of the world" when tech-civilisation ends. People & rural communities can prepare but need⏩
Even renaissance societies relied on extraction, international trade and specialisation.
But rekindled societies after the collapse only have non-useful know-how at first, resulting in caveman-level of useful sophistication
– *and* again rely on fossil and wood fuel for even the most basic tasks.
I agree with Robert Harris' "Second Sleep" where only population outside metropolitan areas survive the famine and violence. How could we today help the survivors to rekindle a *sustainable* organisation?
Which cultures r likely to rekindle societal organisation beyond tribes? IMO non-urban S-America. How to bolster those future attempts today, paper knowledge caches? How to curate that knowledge for its likely usefulness? "When there's no pharma industry: medicine for dummies"...
The soft-sci troubadours sing about degrowth and doughnuts. Ballads of soft "transitions" to utopia. Risk awareness can't grow because these ballads are about a far-away time, not heeding the requirements of today's breeched planetary boundaries/budget.
I spent lotsa time deciphering the climate of the Pliocene or MIS11 and listening to ballads of "transitions" to utopia.
Assuming that this surely was what I need to know.
But neither physicists nor troubadours cover what would have raised my risk-awareness to reality-levels.
Intriguing.
A long drought prevailed AD 500ff in East Mediterranean & Arab Peninsula. Might've been in more regions but these I know of.
The 1st plague epidemic from rat fleas began in Kush/Egypt 541-549 and culled MENA & Europe.
Long droughts cause (death, war and) migration..
Did (the aftermath of) the drought fuel epidemic spread? Likely. Drought weakens states, workers flee, wars ensue, armies carry🪲everywhere.
Did Kush experience drought, too? Was the (onset of the) pandemic even caused by rats' or human behaviour that was influenced by drought?
What human or rat behaviour would trigger rat fleas to jump and infect humans?
I'd imagine you need lots of rats to increase the chances of a few infected fleas to jump. These rats need food and also be brave enough to run around in the immediate vicinity of humans.
Hm.
Intriguing is that Chile's citizens turned out to be the most risk-aware in this international Facebook survey. Of its 19mio citizens, 1094 took part in the survey and 60-70% know they'll be harmed personally by climate change.
This is the level of awareness we need!
The survey was conducted in Mar-Apr 2022, ~6 months after election and 1 month after inauguration of new left govt. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Chil…
I don't know anything of the talking points during their election. The only thing I know is, they now have a cli-sci as new EP secretary.
It might be that election campaigns were based on climate by all candidates and that this has in turn heightened the climate-awareness and the so important risk-awareness so much so that 60-70% rightly assume personal harm from climate change.
2 more awareness-factors could be