Jill Rutter Profile picture
Sep 23, 2020 13 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Thanks to @michaelgove for drawing attention to the disruptive possibilities of no deal.. today @UKandEU have a report on just that ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
Big message is that-as Gove points out - there is much less difference between deal/no deal than last year - or than there would have (probably) been with a deal May negotiated "Canada and Australia are similar but not identical"
But the problem with an acrimonious no deal (and could it really be anything else since govt upped the ante with #IMbill) is that it reduces likelihood of EU making life easier for UK through unilateral measures
and the chances of speedy equivalence decisions on financial services and a data adequacy decision would reduce considerably - that will mean workarounds and some staff/asset moves - as well as hassle for customers
not asking for an extension always raised risk that no deal prep would coincide with #covid19 second wave.. that has already delayed preparations by govt and business
Govt comms campaign so determined to emphasise positives and not use the "B" word, easy to ignore - maybe Gove leak will help focus minds again.. but it won't mean there are lots more customs agents etc
Last year a lot of businesses backed parliament to stop no deal -- and saved themselves a lot of money. Not this year.
Our report points up areas where disruption is possible... agri-food will find itself at the sharp end of tariffs,,,and food supply chains which held up well most vulnerable to border delays.. we import a lot of food in January..
But there are other important areas where we will see impacts.. in short run covid restrictions will mean we probably won't notice much of the impact on travel for leisure or work, with or without pets
In longer run will also mean resorting to clunkier cooperation between police and courts.. and make it harder for the UK to pull off a triumphant G7 and COP26 next year. A tough start for Global Britain
and internally yet more pressure on the Union. No deal makes the border in the Irish Sea deeper.. and will add fuel to the nationalists in Scotland. UK will be proceeding against the wishes of devolved govts in Scotland and Wales and NI Assembly
Upsides: regulatory freedom (subject to other deals we want to do), freedom to subsidise business (subject to litigation under NI protocol), a low base to negotiate a new deal with the EU (more like a conventional trade deal) when anger subsides.
Over time economy will adapt. And I will get lots more passport stamps. ENDS

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More from @jillongovt

Mar 13
with news Boris Johnson might be making a come back, good time for @UKandEU to publish a stocktake on how far we have got on his 2019 promise to "Get Brexit done" - an in depth look at how the state has adapted to Brexit. ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
First we look at the impact on the size and shape of the civil service: lots more people - numbers up by over 100k since 2016. Not all Brexit of course - covid, asylum etc. But a lot are. And a lot of those are long-term jobs. Brexit = British bureaucrats
We've had a turbulent time since the referendum. Lots of political change. But lots of machinery of government changes as well. Remember DExEU? We now (probably) have reached the end of post-Brexit Mogging with the creation of @biztradegovuk
Read 26 tweets
Apr 26, 2023
Watching HoL constitution committee with @nickmacpherson2 @marksedwill and former first civil service commissioner on dismissal of perm secs. Nick says always been removals but volume has gone up and notes Scholar removed preemptively by Kwarteng
Note that @AlexGAThomas and I gave evidence earlier to this. Sedwill also points out similar dismissal of his successor as national security adviser "equally damaging".
Sedwill suggests cttee should investigate the "underlying reasons" for the increase in the number of removals. Sedwill says due to a "mix" of reasons. Since coalition PM can choose from all the appointable candidates emerging from CSC-led process.
Read 50 tweets
Apr 24, 2023
This is very good from @DavidGauke. To pick up and expand on one point. When I was in private office, I saw my role as shielding the minister from sub-standard advice. I would tell my fellow civil servants their stuff was not good enough to put in.
@DavidGauke same message - but very different when coming from a relatively junior civil servant than from a minister. And if someone was poor in a meeting, we'd call them or their boss afterwards saying the minister was unimpressed and they needed to up their game
@DavidGauke and if we had a serious issue, we would tell their boss that the minister had lost confidence in X and they needed to sort it. Or haul in the permanent secretary.
Read 6 tweets
Nov 14, 2022
Was annoyed at 7.00 and annoyed again at 8.00 by @BBCr4today news presentation of the "aid cap". There is no "aid cap". There was a legislated target of 0.7% GDP to be spent on aid.. a target, not a "cap". No maximum
Rishi Sunak reduced that to 0.5% "temporarily" without legislating. Now looked as though that will be baked in to future forecasts. But then we found out govt is classifying lots of UK spend on refugees as "aid"
That spending is going up -- why UK will score itself as spending more on "aid" - perhaps breaking the cash limit (because it can't cut other aid enough to accommodate it).
Read 5 tweets
Sep 2, 2022
Another day - remembering back to the leadership election of 2019. @DavidGauke told us why the Conservatives went for the by then unstoppable Boris Johnson
Brexit party chair Richard Tice told us how ABB - Anyone but Boris had changed post those disastrous (for the Conservatives) European elections - and "did for the Brexit party"
.@OwenPaterson claimed credit for Johnson's win for the ERG
Read 9 tweets
Aug 23, 2022
In two weeks time Boris Johnson will be replaced as Prime Minister.. but he has been a critical political figure of the past decade so over the next fortnight I am going to dip into @UKandEU #Brexitwitnessarchive to paint a picture of him
Lets start with early Johnson. Former Eurocrat Jonathan Faull told us why there might have been a presumption that Johnson would understand Europe and the EU Image
But of course, his journalism in Brussels was about identifying comedy examples of EU red tape - it was on such a hunt that @OwenPaterson first encountered him and gives insight into his journalistic technique Image
Read 43 tweets

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