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David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
@DavidHenigUK
Sep 23, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
My @ECIPE colleague @osguinea has been crunching some numbers on UK-EU trade and discovered there are 604 products the UK only buys from the EU.

There is one product the EU only buys from the UK.

ecipe.org/blog/deal-with…
Breaking down the data to country level we see that Ireland, Malta, and Cyprus are the three EU Member States with the most products bought from the UK and nowhere else. Which I think should worry us about how much the UK has relied on historical ties for trade.
Some of Ireland's products only imported from the UK may come from Northern Ireland, a trade that should be unaffected by Brexit. But given that UK-Ireland trade will in future be subject to more barriers than France-Ireland, we can expect UK-Ireland trade to reduce.
One of the biggest issues with the concept of Global Britain is that we don't seem to do so well exporting to non-English speaking countries and may be close to maximising trade with the likes of the US and Australia. This presents a big challenge too often ignored.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Apr 18
Increasingly thinking that Labour is going to need some clever way to handle the EU issue otherwise there is going to be a lot of difficulty and frustration spilling into government. And judging by my inbox, affecting negotiations. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Problem with these "we can't talk about it but we always talk about it" issues is that they don't go away, and particularly when they involve international talks with a player like the EU, you simply add levels of complexity potentially making it unmanageable.
Worse with UK-EU is the sheer number of players and subjects involved, and that both sides have unfinished emotional business. More on the EU side to come, but the fact every UK story generates reaction tells you this isn't all forgotten...
Read 20 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jan 31
I see we're predicted to be back in the realms today of hurrying through Parliament another Brexit change without debate just to show we haven't really learnt anything, but from the tail end of yesterday's thread here's some of what I'm expecting on Northern Ireland, plus...
There are briefings that either / both - new EU law will no longer automatically be applied in Northern Ireland (it never was) / the UK will agree not to diverge from relevant EU law to avoid UK divergence (wouldn't necessarily remove SPS checks but will keep UK alignment).
As with the Windsor Framework and before, expect an enormous amount of spin that will mostly be reported without challenge, and a handful of us unfortunate enough to read it all (@Usherwood and @JP_Biz are usually good bets in that department).
Read 21 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jan 30
And the morning news is a deal over Northern Ireland and Brexit. But... this statement isn't true under the Windsor Framework. Even if the UK government decide to align food and drink regulations with the EU. So is this really all settled? theguardian.com/politics/2024/…
Image
Now under the Windsor Framework entry checks to Northern Ireland were reduced. But these are not eliminated by UK alignment. Possibly the DUP has finally decided to agree that these are not so different to those of pre-2016. But equally, be wary of false promises unravelling.
Obviously good news for Northern Ireland if Stormont returns. As long as that can be sustained. That's going to quite possibly mean a lot more days like yesterday, because the issues around Brexit aren't going away given Northern Ireland is the entry point to the single market.
Read 22 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jan 25
UK trade news! Canada have proved persistently tough negotiating partners for the UK, and this comes as little surprise. The existing replica of the EU agreement is presumed to hold for now, but must also raise a question on CPTPP ratification.
Worth noting that UK refusal to change food standards has been an issue for Canada, while UK access to dairy is an inevitable issue the other way. But still a blow to the government's trade story.
At this stage we have no update on Canada's approach to making tea...
Read 7 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jan 19
Good piece on Northern Ireland. Clearly the DUP take some blame for refusing to return to Stormont. But their position is pretty predictable, and the UK government has consistently failed in efforts to change that, digging the hole deeper as they go. politico.eu/article/no-gov…
Doesn't seem like the government ever had a Plan B for the entirely predictable (and widely predicted) situation in which the DUP rejected the Windsor Framework. They were so confident that they had negotiated brilliantly (heard someone involved bragging exactly this).
Can't help thinking I've heard this before (and yesterday's version was there wouldn't be any agreement for a long time), but let's see if the DUP are prepared to suddenly fold on their stated reasons for not being in Stormont...
Read 5 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jan 19
To be clear because I've read this twice already today, a UK-EU SPS agreement would almost certainly NOT remove all barriers to trade in food and drink products.

It could ease some of them. But that difference between the single market and lesser arrangements will remain.
Thing is, loose talk in the UK on EU deals has consequences, because when the Commission read that the UK is going to remove all food and drink barriers while staying out of the single market they think "unacceptable cherry picking / they haven't learnt anything".
There's a realistic UK-EU SPS deal to be had based on substantive but not dynamic regulatory alignment in which trade barriers are lowered but not removed but even this will be a tough negotiation requiring a lot of mutual understanding and could easily fail.
Read 5 tweets

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